4AAL trade ideas
AAL Showing a Good Sign with its Market BehaviourWelcome to Profitlio Trading!
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This is going to be a perfect sign for gains in AAL market. As of it failed to break the diagonal support it has formed. Look into the highlighted eclipse and good place for a long term buying opportunities. Sketch up your own trade setup before you take off. Our Previous selling banked with 100+ Pips and Good Luck!
Profitlio Trading ( Since 2014 in Financial Markets )
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AMERICAN AIRLINES (AAL): Tell me about my schiff!Here's a Schiff Pitchfork I've scaled over the past few weeks. What do you think? Critics welcomed.
$AAL EPS Projection = -$2.47 / Falling WedgeI will be looking for $AAL to follow this falling wedge downwards and likely lag till earnings. Earnings may cause more downside.
Wall Street Journal EPS Projection: -$1.83
More realistic EPS: -$2.47
I believe revenue projections are heavily understated as shown by Ford.
$UAL has quarterly revenues under 10 billion and predicted a revenue loss in march alone at 1.5 billion . $AAL I am betting will have lost more revenue than 1.5 billion in March.
If we take into account $UAL projecting losses of 1.5billion in March when their revenue is under 10 billion a quarter it is safe to say that $AAL would lose 1.5 billion in revenue as well, which is generous because they could have lost more.
Projected Revenues/Expenses/Net Income/EPS
Operating Expense for Q1: 10.157 billion
Operating Expenses for January: 3.386 billion
Operating Expenses for February: 3.386 billion
Operating Expenses for March: 3.386 billion
Operating Revenue for Q1: 10.757 billion
Operating Revenue for January: 3.585 billion
Operating Revenue for February: 3.585 billion
Operating Revenue for March if it were a normal month, based on trends: 3.585 billion
Non operating expenses: 158 million
Net income in January: 200 million
Net income in February: 200 million (generous)
Expected losses in revenue for March: 1.5 billion
Expected Operating revenue for March: 2.085 billion.
Net income in March: -1.3billion
200 mill + 200 mill -1.3billion - 158 million = -1.058 billion before taxes
No clue how this loss would be taxed, so let's just leave that alone, but this means their real net income after tax will be worse than -1.058 billion
-1.058 billion / 428.2million weighted outstanding shares = -$2.47 EPS or worse.
This is important because a normal falling wedge like this would break towards the upside, however if earnings are truly this bad I believe there may be more downside.
Double Bottoms BULLISH I know ... I know this POS but I'm following its numbers, trends, and news. Under 12 right now might see a pop when/if they sign the agreement. Probably get news today or tomorrow. You know FEDs got these airliners back.
$AAL SHORT $AAL coming up on resistance, looking to see what happens Monday, expecting the price to go into the $13s and will be looking for a short entry around $13.50.
Target Price: $9
Stop Loss: $15.50
Will likely be going with an option for this trade. Buy Put May 15 $7 strike @~.40
BOL
American Airlines (AAL) Pros
Trading at 68% below its fair value Earnings are forecast to grow 29% per year
AAL returned 33.2% last week AAL is good value based on its PE Ratio (3.3)
AAL is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.1)
AALs Return on Equity is forecast to be very high in 3 years' time.
AALs dividend (3.2%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the US market (1.82%)
During the past 3 Months, Insiders have bought 54000 shares (approx $1.1m)
Cons
AALs Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow
Has an unstable dividend track record Highly volatile share price over the past 3 months
Down 63.9% over the last year
AALs revenue is forecasted to grow slower than the US market per year
AAL had a large 1 off loss of $652.0M impacting its December 31, 2019, financial results
AALs earnings have declined by -31.8% per year over the past 5 years
AAL has negative shareholder equity, which is more serious than a high level of debt
Banks/Funds have been downgrading AAL
Report:
From a technical standpoint, rising trendline support held at 886, however, we broke sharply out of the descending channel at (A) to the downside which we really need to get back inside and stay above resistance at (1). A break out of the descending channel to the upside and above resistance would be considered a buy signal (based on chart pattern analysis). Technical Indicators are showing early signs of curling, which 'could' suggest that the bottom is in. But further confirmation of this is necessary. From a Fundamental standpoint, the data is mixed (as listed above).
Bottomcatchers Opinion:
In our opinion, the mixed fundamental data is slightly skewed positive, which suggests future growth looks promising. However, the technical chart is showing a risk/reward ratio that's skewed negatively (at this stage). That's not to say this security is not a good buy, it simply means caution is needed. Buying above resistance which comes in at 1503 would be considered an aggressive buy, but one that could play out providing we stay above resistance. A break out of the descending channel to the upside would be good confirmation that we are probably in an uptrend. So with all the information, we have to work with, my call for this trade would be to buy above resistance and use the resistance level (which would become support at 1503) as a stop loss area. Further buying opportunities would present themselves above the top descending channel trendline at (1). With a target at September 2016 lows, which comes in at 3392. Time Frame for this trade set-up is medium to long term.
AAL Descending Triangle a Long term buying opportunity. Its in descending Triangle and forming a triple Bottom.
Buy here between 24-25 and Keep Long.
Different airlines, different leverges."The Senate's bailout package, which deals with the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus, will give airlines $25 billion in direct grants as long as they agree not to place any employees on involuntary furloughs or discontinue service at any airports they now serve until at least the end of September. Another $25 billion is available for loan guarantees."-- CNN
Four popular American Aviation industry leaders are under fire sale.. but which will hold till the end and outperform in your portfolio?
I made a fundamental comparison of these companies. mainly focusing on debt/bankruptcy risk.
Airlines BLASTING off soon? Bullish Should you buy AAL now at $11 while you still can? Are you optimistic about the end of coronavirus? If life goes back to how we were I expect a surge for airlines. Probably higher than the usual $25 or $30 range just because every reaction is an overreaction. AAL is still in a nice dip and is barely leaving the oversold region. It does have a bit of bearish divergence on the daily. Weekly still looks oversold as well. What are your thoughts?
*Not financial adviser
AALWEEKLY is in a downtrend with candles making LL& LH
Daily price has broken demand level
The next level of demand based on weekly $26.00 level
What is going on with these crazy voumes?I can't wrap my head around today's volume. What makes me really confused is that why there are so many supplier for this demand! And more importantly, how the hell did the sellers get to win?!! Bringing it down by 15 per cent!
There hasn't been a single green candle for weeks now, despite the ever growing volume. We see most stocks that have been hit hard, are making a good recovery without any dramatic increase in volume but this one is still struggling! Please share your thoughts.
AAL double bullish divergence, insane volume and looking juicy!Call me crazy but American Airlines looks ready to bust a move. I am still shocked by the volume today. 20+ will not surprise me at all.
AAL Watched as AAL shot up to a big supply zone. Tagged it and rejected right away. Was a quick move but was able to get some good fills on puts right away for a nice swing back down after rejection.
Think it will bounce around for a bit but no trade plans until price drifts back towards either of the demand/supply zoneS. If supply, since it was such a very brief tag, I think it can hold up. But, then again with the stock being so beaten could even see a gap and go over it.
