Will The Federal Reserve Or Earnings Slow Down Amazon Next Week?Our quick look tonight is at Amazon.com stock. 17 January brought us a bearish signal at the closing price of 151.71. Of the 242 studied similar occasions, the stock successfully reverses downward 95% of the time over the next 10 and 25 trading days. For this instance to be successful, the stock will need to move below 151.71. So far the stock has basically ignored the signal and powered higher. Another thing I have noticed during my research is what I call a signal delay zone. This is when the signal fails to take hold right away, but the stock eventually abides by the signal. Today is currently 6 days post-signal and only have 4 days left to make the 10 day study a success.
The largest delay from a percentage standpoint has been a 2.097% move upward from the signal, before a success was still achieved within 10 days from the signal. The latest a 10 day signal saw the highest delay price and still was successful was eight days after the signal. We are currently 4% above the signal price which does not bode well for a drop over the next four days. Day 10 is January 31st, Federal Reserve decision day. Also after the close on February 1st is the annual earnings call.
There are three likely outcomes, AMZN continues to move up without looking back, the day 10 study fails and the day 25 is successful, or both day 10 and 25 studies become successes. A success will be logged if we reach and cross below the dashed yellow line. I have placed the 10 day success box on the chart as a yellow square. This box is the target bottom for 50% of all successful signals. The other larger green box is the 50% target box for the 25 day study. This provides most of February for AMZN to come down and remain successful in the study.
Applying my modified wave theory to the AMZN chart. My overall outlook is:
We are likely in the final fifth wave of the fifth wave of wave C in wave B. This basically means the stock and market are about to start more prolonged downward movement. This is bearish through the end of 2024. Not sure if we the debt bubble bursts, rate cuts are taken off the table "for now", shipping disruptions in the Red Sea come up during earnings calls or the Fed press conference, or something else causes the foreseen market disruption.
