4BIIB trade ideas
Biogen going down. NASADAQ:BIIBI don't see any impulse patterns here. There is an Elliott triangle that just happened, but this is a part of a correction, hence bearish. Goaling for the floor first in blue, then the two fib targets after that if there is more gas for the downward move. NFA
Biogen - Pivot Point - Beware EarningsHey traders, I was searching for potential pivot points for long call opportunities and I came across Biogen NASDAQ:BIIB and thought to myself "Hey! This looks good!"... that is until I saw they're expected to report earnings tomorrow. But otherwise, take a look at the chart above. One thing you will see...is that its been trading within a range. I highlighted this range on the chart using the labels Support and Resistance. The other thing to notice is where the stock price is relative to the Bollinger Bands. If earnings wasn't tomorrow, I would be more inclined to purchase a call here because the stock price is holding at the lower BollingerBand at 2 standard deviations. Stock price has a tendency to move back towards the 8 EMA on the daily chart above, so if we are playing the odds, this trade would be in favor to the upside. But this trade is invalidated since we have a major news event happening tomorrow.
So... let's see what happens. In my experience, if a stock breaches the lower Bollinger Band after an earnings report, it's no longer a valid long call trade. In the past, I have made the mistake in thinking with 2 standard deviations... I have a 95% chance that price will fall back within the BollingerBands within the lifespan of the trade. But often what ends up happening is the stock price moves in a "L shaped" pattern where the vertical end of the "L" is the drop after the major news event and the horizontal side of the "L" is the sideways price action the stock experiences for days ( sometimes weeks ) following the news event.
In this situation, the stock usually comes back within the 2 standard deviation range... but not until Theta decay has eaten up your call option's premium. So even if you eventually get the direction right, time will not be kind to your long call position. This is where applying the Put Credit Spread strategy comes in handy. With Put Credit Spreads, you are an option seller, rather than an option buyer. Time will erode the premiums of the spread making it cheaper to buy back later. What's even better, is if the stock moves up... then the Delta will negatively affect the puts making them cheaper to buy back.
Anyways, let's follow Biogen tomorrow and see if they beat or miss earnings and how the stock price reacts to the news. If it heads lower, we'll follow up in next weeks idea regarding the put credit spread setup.
Wait for the gap fillWe seem to be inside a pennant, but of course the trendline is only based on 2 points for the top and bottom trendline so it may not be the most reliable trendlines to rely on.
Another way to view the big picture of this chart is the demand and supply zones so even if you were to have a position on the trendline you should not panic just because the trendline broke.
Taking a closer look in the chart chart we can see that we are making a series of lower highs while the lows are relatively flat resembling a descending wedge , so I am short term bearish on this. If this drops that will be our opportunity to buy at a great price ,as well as we may snag this at the low end of the large accumulation phase with a great RR. . It might respect the trendline which will be a great thing as it may provide a clear SL. Chances are that it may enter a smaller accumulation phase just like the previous one
BiogenLittle bit of a divergence starting to form in the shape of a bullish pattern.
I'm long, don't like it really if it starts to trade lower out of this range. $IBB
BIIB DOUBLE FLOORDAILY MACD: BUY
DAILY DMI: +DI CROSSING UP -DI
HOLDING ON DOUBLE FLOOR OF A BULLISH TL
IF IT CLOSE UP THE OLD GAP RES
I SAY 1ST OBJECTIVE ON 0.618 FIB RETRACEMENT ($330)
LET SEE. TELL ME WHAT YOU THINK
ABC Bullish Falling wedgePossible stop below 274
ABC pattern is only valid if price breaks entry level in a confirmed up trend
Falling wedges are often bullish at the bottom and can signal a reversal in trrend if price breaks up and out of the falling wedge..the top trend line of the falling wedge is 288.7 right now
On hourly, 274 seems to be an area of support but with abc patterns the stop is set under C..and that is 274!
Short interest is low
Be safe
Not a recommendation
Biogen trend line to watchBiogen today reported a huge earning beat, but disappointing guidance for the rest of the year. When you crunch the numbers, the midpoint of Biogen's guidance range for 2H 2020 came in slightly below Street consensus for both earnings and revenues.
Biogen has a reasonable, but not great valuation, with forward PEG of 3.78 and forward PSG of 1.27. It's currently in the lower half (26th percentile) of its three-year valuation range in terms of forward P/S and forward P/E. Biogen pays no dividend, and as a result the stock is more volatile than a dividend-paying stock would be.
Sentiment on Biogen improved quite a bit today. There have been no analyst upgrades yet, but options traders moved from net-bearish to net-bullish positioning for the short term, and from net-bearish to net-neutral positioning for the long term.
We're coming up on the strong season for pharmaceutical stocks in August. Biogen has only one phase 2 clinical trial result due in the second half of 2020 for its multiple sclerosis drug, but there are five results due in the first half of 2021, including a phase 3. These could prove to be major catalysts for the stock over the next year.
For the near term, watch for a possible trend line break as a sign that the stock will move higher.
BIIBBased on my analysis:
1. BIIB formed a cup & handle (May 26-29).
2. Breakout the neckline with a high volume and formed a marubozu candlestick.
3. Stochastic shows an upward price bias.
4. Traders are advised to take profit at the price level (1) 312.50- 314 USD or (2) 321 USD.
Bullish move triggered on the BIIB weekly chartMy custom-coded indicators are pointing to a move higher in BIIB based on the latest weekly candlestick. The signal is weaker but still present and it appears to be bullish over the next few weeks.
