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Grifols

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4GRF trade ideas

Are we at the bottom yet?Grifols stock has been heavely punished during 2021. First the pandemic difficulted the plasma collection. We must take into account the stimulus checks and the unemployment benefits from the US goverment wich might have disuaded people from going to the plasma collection centers to get some extra income. I'll be looking forward for the data on the plasma operations in the next earnings release. We also have to consider the high net gearing of the company after issuing a ton of debt to purchase various companies wich will allow BME:GRF . GRF .to diversify their portfolio in the future and increase their "plasma economy" being able to extract more proteins and produce more drugs (and thus revenue) from each liter of plasma. The real question is if Grifols is a good buy at 19-20 euros per share. It is important to consider that the company has announced that it will suspend its dividend until its debt is reduced, so this makes it a less attractive long term hold. If we look at the chart we can see that we are really close to two important support levels at 20 eur and 19.5 eur that acted as resistance between 2016-2017. I consider that this might be a great entry point consdering the position of GRF in the plasma market, there aren't many competitors or substitutives to their products. The future of the stock and the shareholder value shall come from a change in the fundamentals once they get the possibility to reduce the collection cost of plasma (reducing how much they pay the donors) and thus they see and increase in their gross and net margins. Another important aspect would be the reinstitution of its dividends but you don't sell the skin till you have caught the bear. It will take some time and it would require their operations to return to normal. Overall i think that if you take all this factors into consideration the price between 19.5 and 20 euro can be a good entry if you want to bet on their earnings pointing towards a return to normal. If we get good guidance on Q3 earnigns i wouldn't be surprise to see the stock going above the 22 euro mark (a 10% return from where it is currently trading) and even getting close to 25 euro. I don't see GRF going back to their prepandemic levels any time soon but i think there might be some value on this price point if the situation of the company improves towards the next year. In an enviroment where there are concerns of inflation and stagnation a company with a stable stream of income and control over its prices can provide some defense for investors trying to preserve value.
BME:GRFLong
by CaptnBNZ
GRIFOLS: Results day coming on Feb 26. Then to the moon?68.2% of GRIFOLS revenues come from the US and Canada. Covid19 cases there seem to be decreasing. The company is delaying more and more its deadline of results for the phase III of the inmunoglobulina antiCovid-19, now until spring 2021. If GRLS results are positive or better than expected (specially Q4 ones), I expect a jump from 21.61 to 26 in a matter of 2 weeks. The 2020 annual earnings are due on February 26. Grifols has a key support on 21.61 and then a structural support on 20.77. This week we'll see how it goes but as soon as it touches 21.61 is already a buy in my opinion and hold until Feb 26. Then depending on the results, sell or hold until its price objective recommendations which are around 30€. Note: RSI-14 is also below 30, so we might expect a change of trend sooner than later. Good luck traders and long-term investors!
BME:GRFLong
by alexinve
Grifols: A new bullish channel up to +18%?Focused on hemoderivatives (blood plasma), Grifols is great value by most of investors. Even though the company might be one day spitted by any scandal on how it is gathering the plasma in the US, americans have got a high stake on it and today it is focusing on an hyperimmune immunoglobulin with specific antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Grifols estimated an impact on its accounts of €200 million and many rating houses have downgraded the stock. Its 2019's profits were up 4.8% to 625 million and an EBITDA of 1,434 million (+17,3% YoY). In 2020, Q1 Net profits were up 63% and EBITDA 14.9%. Results on its tests will be presented in July (the mandatory 14 days to see whether the virus is gone or not). We may experience volatility in the price of the company until July 01. According to some news, Grifols' margins were not attractive and that is why the correction of the share price has taken place. Technically speaking, the company might be immersed in a bullish channel started on March 16 and closing out a triangle started on Feb 20. We could expect the share price go at least up to 29.40 level in the next days. Best price to enter Grifols might be 27€. Also, note that when markets are down, Grifols is up acting like a safe haven asset.
BME:GRFLong
by alexinve