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4MSTR trade ideas

$MSTR: From leader of men to outcastMichael Saylor used to be revered by Bitcoin fanatics, since he was mega bullish their favorite asset class and loud as hell. The ultimate degenerate gambler in the space. His other people's money gambling habits are nothing new, as he battled with fraud allegations back in the hey day of the Dot Com bubble. Now he's making yet another fund raising round to buy yet more Bitcoin, this time not using debt, but rather issuing new shares. There's a very clear technical trend signal that formed here and indicates a rally has started and can extend until either the $551.38 target is reached or the October 28th deadline is met. Another thing to keep in mind is that the monthly down trend signal in the stock expires during October, which could be a sign of a general recovery in crypto for the next 10 months as well: There's an interesting resistance level higher, see the red line on chart, it indicates the price zone where Elon Musk bought Bitcoin back in Jan 2nd 2021. The SEC filing announcing it publicly didn't come out until February 8th, and that was the very top in $MSTR, who was the loudest proponent of putting Bitcoin in companies' balance sheet as an inflation/doomsday hedge. I'm not in the stock, and option premium is historically astronomical so the smartest way to play it is to buy or sell stock in general. The weekly trend signal activated on Friday when price moved over $258.97. Entries at that price or lower would be good, invalidation for the signal would be on a drop under $219.39. I have a hard time going long here, same as everyone I talk to regularly about markets, but it seems like the right thing to do. I'm personally long Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as $COIN, but not in $MSTR yet. I'd trade this one small to be safe, since it's a far riskier play than the other 3 I mentioned. Perhaps a 1% long shot gamble would be adequate. 6.6%+- would risk 1% give or take. Risking 0.1-0.2% seems ok to me here. If this were to be a more long lasting bottom, upside would be significant and make it worth it. We can figure that out over time, as we get more cues from price and fundamental events. Best of luck if you're entering this one, if it gaps up on Monday, then it's probably best to just let it go. Chances are you followed my Bitcoin publication and bot that near 21030, so that would be more than enough exposure really....Still interesting to track this chart and fundamental events as Saylor can have a significant impact on Bitcoin, considering the amount he holds. Risks floating over Bitcoin's head like a Damocles sword are mainly Saylor's bag needing to be liquidated in loss over time, and MtGox creditors being repaid. I'd keep an eye out for those events. Once out of the way, Bitcoin has far less risk and way bigger chances of achieving sustained, long term upside. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by IvanLabrie
2
Distribution signals flash at EU Open [$CRO, $MSTR, $BTC]EU Open today bring more sideways action for us all. +-1-2% moves over night, nothing much, all things considering. The market has clearly tightened it's range for the past 2 days, anyway. Volatility is still expected, as we remain sandwhiched between two massive gappers on either side of $MSTR current levels in the $210-235 $300-325. $DXY continues to show strength, but given the double top, it's possible for a short-term reversal, if not a all out dump in September when the Jacksonhole rate hike announcements are made. Stay tuned! My custom Accumulation / Distribution scripts are warning that the market is likely over heated (on the 15m scale), which aligns with the fact that BTC also rejected it's approach to the golen pocket formed from the most recent dump. All this is to say, i'm still holding only my $CRO short position for the time being. Last night my take-profit limits only managed to cover 25% of my open position as I slept, when Asia brought us down into the .126 range before retracing back to current levels as EU opened. With only 4% gains at the moment, it's nothing to write home about, but i'll be looking for good opporutnities to accumulate more shorts, as my overall thesis remains about the same as it was yesterday. Lots of resistence around the .13 levels for $CRO. And lots of resistence for BTC at 21450-21500 (golden pocket). Same like 282-285 for $MSTR. Watch the $DXY! If it continues to rise quickly, expect asset prices to further collapse!
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by calmrat
$MSTR / $BTC Price Divergence$MSTR / $BTC (and many alt's in the green still for the day) are clearly off track from their usual correlation in the past hour+ from US market open. $DXY's pullback should imply we'll see $BTC / $MSTR head higher, but right now, it's any one's guess. $BTCUSD is forming a prety nasty little M pattern on the 5m chart. New York is looking prehaps to bring the prices down and cash in on the bull's who were too ambitions getting in on this morning's positive opening momentum? I'm still holding my short position. My guess is we're simply hitting too much resistence still, and the accumulation trend continues...
NASDAQ:MSTRShort
by calmrat
$MSTR Level check MondayDaily range 265 - 283 End of month range 210 - 220 We've put another pre-market gapper into the books in today's opening session on US markets for Monday, opening -5% below friday's dismal close. WIthin the first 1h candle we've recovered most of the gap, and current 1h candle volume is higher than average, so demand is strong for the moment at these levels. The most recent gap between 300 and 325 is sticking out like a sore thumb. It's a highly contested area since the start of the month, where trading ranged from Aug 1-10. Everyone who went long in that zone, and everything above it once the market managed to flip it into support are now completely trapped. The gaps of mid to late July are calling from around 210 to 230, which lines up with the distribution fann I see in the chart, leading us down to exactly 210-230 range by the end of the month. This, unfortunately for the HODL'ers among us, is shaping up to be the most likely scenario.... Where are you at with $MSTR?
NASDAQ:MSTR
by calmrat
💎🤙🏿 $MSTR $BTC Mind the Gap$mstr pre-market gapper signals we are primed for some massive volatility next week. $MSTR acts as the defacto #bitcoin index fund for US investors. 3/4 of pre-market gappers have been shown to trade in the previous days range within 24 hours. The scary part is nearly all gap are closed long-term, when we scale out to long enough timeframes, and we still have a nasty little fellow hiding down under $200 for $MSTR. The good news short-term is that the larger gap is from Friday's session, and it's massive. This amount of liquidity is going to be hard to pass-up for the big boys out there making the markets. They'll want their funds back sooner than later! Careful with your shorts this weekend!!! 10-12% feels nasty, but getting hit both on the way up and down can break you, without a doubt. Mind the gap! 💥 We could see a quick fakeout to recover the liquidity on the table, only to retrace strongly back to the downside to reclaim what was left on the table in the weeks past... watch those lines! The alignment with the Aug 30 accumulation fann doesn't help the bullish case either. Careful to not catch the falling knife without gloves. Set your stop limits and take profits if you're in the green! This is no time to get greedy.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by calmrat
333 by July 14I call this a bullish swivel. $$$ squeeze setup about to unfold for a lot of names.. MSTR could hit 330s in the next couple weeks. We have seen what it can do in the right environment last Jan., Saylor knows - this could go way above 330s if this gets triggered. Here's examples of the pattern: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSTR has been attracting shorts and they'll pay no doubt. The bulk of this data is from shortsqueeze.com Short Interest Ratio (Days To Cover) 3.9 Short Percent of Float ~ 37.7% (maketwatch, unknown or not listed on shortsqueeze.com) Short % Increase / Decrease 7 % Short Interest (Current Shares Short) 3,460,000 Shares Float Unknown Short Interest (Prior Shares Short) 3,230,000
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by JerryManders
2
MicroStrategy still heading sub $100I still think we will se a last trip down in the $BTC price before heading for $30,000 per coin. No doubt that $MSTR is extremely sensitive to that PA. Which is also why this stock will become extremely valuable once $BTC travels to new ATHs. Not only does the company own a ton of coins, but they also have the #1 advocate and spokesperson for Bitcoin as their CEO. That's why I can easily see $MSTR outperform $BTC in this cycle. I've got a chunk of fiat side-lined for when we enter the drawn box. An area in which the stock has spend quite a lot of time in in the past.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by FourApplesADay
MSTR: About that margin call...2 bottom signals b2b on Cipher bouncing off the 1.618 fib at $136 should indicate that a temporary bottom is being set here for MSTR and probably bitcoin as well. Relief rally incoming back to the 1 fib level/Yearly VWAP at $278. Last week's barrage of FUD was strong ranging from MSTR's supposed margin call to Celsius's liquidity concerns. That being said, the bear market is just getting started for MSTR and BTC as shown by the weekly money flow deep in the red.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by CrashWhen