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4PTON trade ideas

$PTON : Technical Analysis vs. FundamentalsNASDAQ:PTON : Technical Analysis vs. Fundamentals Take a look at this chart. Imagine you know nothing about Peloton's recent earnings report. Based solely on the chart, would you buy it now? If you're a technical analyst like me, you might instinctively shout "hell yes!" But now consider the same question after reading through the latest earnings report. Suddenly, a confident "yes" isn't so easy to utter, right? Why? This is because our trading decisions can be influenced by factors beyond what's purely visible on the chart. A bullish pattern suddenly loses its appeal in light of negative earnings news. I've observed this in myself. A casual comment from CNBC talking heads can sway my technical analysis. On the other hand, I've heard of Takashi Kotegawa, a Japanese trader who disregards fundamentals entirely, focusing solely on technical analysis. Some might call that insane. But is it? What is technical analysis, exactly? For me, it's about understanding the collective mindset of market participants. The chart reflects their decisions, their fears, and their hopes. By analyzing it, we can try to anticipate their next move, ultimately guessing the future price action. Enough philosophy, let's get back to $PTON. The chart suggests a potential reversal. We see a base forming at the end of the downtrend channel, accompanied by a cup-and-handle pattern. (Yes, textbooks typically label cup-and-handles as continuation patterns. But be surprised how often they've served as reversal patterns during bottoms this year alone.) Furthermore, MACD, RSI, and A/D indicators all trend upwards, hinting at further price gains. The neckline around $6-$7 provides a clear resistance. Therefore, if the price breaks above $7, we can expect further upside potential. Upside targets: $7 $8.65 - $9 $10 $12 Downside risk: $5
NASDAQ:PTONLong
by PaperBozz
PTON - Shift In Momentum In Action ↗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders, 📈 NASDAQ:PTON has been overall bearish trading within the falling channel in red. PTON is currently retesting the upper bound of the channel and a strong resistance zone highlighted in green. 🏹 For the bulls to assume control and shift the momentum from bearish to bullish, we need a daily candle close above the 7.5 resistance. Meanwhile, PTON would be bearish and can still trade lower. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
NASDAQ:PTON
by TheSignalyst
go long its only 7USD May have trouble making interest payments on debt Declining trend in earnings per share Analysts anticipate sales decline in the current year Stock price movements are quite volatile Stock has fared poorly over the last month Valuation implies a poor free cash flow yield Not profitable over the last twelve months observing the 1hr chart price action confirmed at 930 aug 18 2023 the price had the support low of 6.70 and could possibly have a nice run up prior to earnings aug 23 t.p 7.98 or more stoploss 6.60
NASDAQ:PTONLong
by nickso833
PTON Peloton Interactive Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold the massive Head and Shoulders Bearish chart patter: Or reentered ahead of a previous earnings spike: Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of PTON Peloton Interactive prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 7usd strike price at the money calls with an expiration date of 2023-8-25, for a premium of approximately $0.72. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NASDAQ:PTONLong
by TopgOptions
1
Peleton in a range.Peloton - 30d expiry - We look to Sell at 9.78 (stop at 10.78) Posted a Double Top formation. 9.82 has been pivotal. 9.87 has been pivotal. We look to trade the current range. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile. Our profit targets will be 7.28 and 6.78 Resistance: 7.50 / 8.60 / 9.00 Support: 6.62 / 6.30 / 6.00 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group
NASDAQ:PTONShort
by VantageMarkets
PTON: A long Opportunity From 6.7 ->AGAINPTON: A long Opportunity From 6.7 ->AGAIN From the previous analysis, the price reached our targets of +30% and +43% So far the price is coming down again on our support zone by giving us another great buy opportunity. Probably you may think that PTON it's not one of the best stocks out there....yes, I agree with you. But as long as PTON reacts fast and the profits are good it is worth trying a LONG opportunity again. Thank you and Good Luck! Previous Analysis:
NASDAQ:PTONLong
by KlejdiCuni
8
$PTON High Risk No Reward Over the last year, Peloton Interactive, Inc. (NASDAQ: PTON) has been transitioning into a subscription business model instead of relying on its hardware sales. This could be an excellent move for the business since subscription models offer a higher profit margin. However, there is a litany of issues plaguing the company, including but not limited to a post-pandemic relapse, mass recalls due to safety concerns, mounting debt, and a $75 million settlement strangling its cash flow. This cacophony of cascading complications is the reason why shorting PTON stock could prove to be a profitable decision – especially with its 2023 annual report set to be released on August 24. PTON Fundamentals New Management Old Vision PTON’s new management’s transition to a subscription business model was a step in the right direction for the early years of the pandemic, which favored subscription models over traditional retail options. This transition occurred in March 2022 and resulted in PTON’s revenue from subscriptions to rise 15% YoY, however, its victory did not last long. Shortly afterward, its management projected that the company is likely to experience a loss in subscriptions in Q4 2023. This could be the start of a worrying trend since plateauing subscriptions could be catastrophic for companies with a subscription model. A prime example of this is Netflix which fell 39% after losing subscribers in Q1 2022. Since PTON’s own management is projected to lose subscribers, the results could be doubly worrying. Stock movement aside, subscriptions make up 56% of PTON’s revenue. A loss in subscriptions will drastically affect the company’s ability to raise revenue, which in turn offsets its projections toward profitability substantially. The reason for PTON’s expected loss of subscribers is likely partially due to inflation and a return to normalcy in a post pandemic world. According to the Kearney consumer institute, there is a steep decline in the subscription market post pandemic due to inflation. According to its surveys, around 40% of consumers think they have too many subscriptions. Additionally, they found that overall consumers were spending about $38 per subscription – amounting to $200 per month during the pandemic. It is for that reason that more than half of the people in the survey want to decrease their subscription budget to under $50 per month. That said, PTON’s subscription is priced at $40 which, given the strain of inflation and its clients post pandemic free range lifestyle, may seem unreasonable. This shift away from a subscription oriented lifestyle is referred to as “The Great Unsubscribe” by Forbes. In conclusion, if PTON were to have remained on its old hardware centered path it most likely would have suffered drastic losses due to mounting expenses and fewer sales. Having said that, the company’s subscription centered approach comes at a time when inflation is ravaging the country and its clientele is returning to a sense of normalcy after the pandemic, which is why things are not favorable for PTON Stock Retailer Deals PTON brokered deals with Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), and Dicks sporting goods (DKS). These deals ‌allow both parties to sell PTON’s bikes – decreasing its inventory which provides it with cash and decreases logistics related expenses. Having said that, the deals may not be sufficient due to the sheer quantity of issues that the company is facing. One of these issues is the fact that the market is likely saturated with PTON’s bikes due to its record sales in the early years of the pandemic. This saturation is not favorable for the company because its products are mostly one time purchases. In other words, the likelihood of a resurgence of hardware sales is slim which is especially worrying since its subscriptions are set to decrease in Q4 2023 according to management’s expectations. Not to mention the recall of 2.2 million bikes earlier this year that is impacting the company negatively from a fiscal and reputational standpoint. Drifting Away From Breakeven Target Currently, PTON’s management is attempting to increase its cash flow by cutting down on expenses that would limit growth. Due to these internal budgetary restrictions, the company experienced a remarkable 92% YoY reduction in expenses. Despite this reduction, the company is in a tough spot. Overall, PTON seems to be veering away from its breakeven goal due to unanticipated factors like the $75 million settlement with DISH Network Corporation (DISH) over multiple patent infringements, which will likely pressure PTON’s $873 million cash balance. Another factor is the recall of 2.2 million bikes due to safety hazards which will not only burden Peloton’s balance sheet but also burden its reputation as a luxury exercise equipment maker. Bankruptcy Could Be On The Horizon The bike recalls and the DISH settlement have put Peloton in an awkward position. The company has a standing debt of a $1 billion convertible note loan and a $690 million term loan due in 3 years which could pose a massive problem for it. It is very unlikely that PTON would be given another zero-interest loan in the current interest rate environment, and the $873 million of cash on its balance sheet is not enough to pay off the $1 billion debt that matures in February 2026. Its $1 billion zero-coupon bonds convert at about $239 a share, and at the stock’s current price, there is no incentive to convert. As a result, PTON will be required to pay the full $1 billion in February 2026 which the company will likely not be able to do since its expected decline in subscribers would lead to more losses for the company despite its cost reduction. Additionally, the company’s debtors may not be enthusiastic about refinancing the debt due to the material risks facing the company’s existence in the long term due to the flaws of its business model even after shifting its focus to subscriptions. The reason for this is the management’s expectations of losing subscribers in Q4 which might be the start of PTON’s fall. PTON’s debt-to-equity ratio is -13.2 since it has negative shareholder equity of $127 million which means that the company is a high risk investment and it may be better off seeking bankruptcy protection. As is, there is little to no upside for PTON Stock given its unclear and unstable future. PTON does not have a lot of options and some of those available are pretty ugly. The most likely course for the company will probably be for it to stabilize its business in order to look attractive and await a white knight. If that does not occur, bankruptcy is the most probable course of action. Given its unclear and unstable future, investors may be better off steering clear of buying PTON stock while shorting it could prove to be a profitable decision, especially with its 2023 annual report set to be released later in August. Technical Analysis PTON stock recently exited its bearish trend and is now in a neutral trend, trading in a sideways channel between $6.75, and $8.38. Looking at the indicators the stock is above the 200, 50, and 21 MAs which is a bullish indication. Meanwhile, the RSI is neutral at 47 and the MACD is curling bullishly. From a fundamental standpoint, PTON is not in a favorable position. Inflation and post pandemic life ‌have led to a sizable decrease in consumers cutting down their subscriptions, which is likely the reason behind the company’s expectations regarding subscription loss in Q4 2023. Additionally, Peloton’s hardware purchases have likely saturated the market resulting in a decrease in hardware purchases. The icing on top of PTON’s diet cake, however, is its $1 billion debt which is larger than its current cash balance, and as a result, may cause PTON to resort to dilution or bankruptcy to restructure its business. With that in mind, a possible play could be going short with an entry on retests of the $9 resistance and taking profits on retests of the 50 and 200 MAs as well as the $8 support. PTON Forecast As things stand, PTON is poised to take on drastic losses as a result of dwindling revenue brought about by a litany of reasons including inflation and post pandemic life negatively affecting subscriptions, crippling debt, safety concerns tarnishing its reputation, and its hardware sales decreasing likely due to saturation. Taking these factors into consideration, it is likely that the company will fall drastically in value or even go bankrupt which is why shorting PTON stock could prove to be a noteworthy decision.
NASDAQ:PTON
by Penny_Stocks_Today
PTON | SHORTNASDAQ:PTON if the bearish line is at 8.64, then the suggested targets are as follows: Target 1: 8.38 Target 2: 8.17 Target 3: 7.94 These levels indicate potential price points where a bearish movement may occur based on the given data. Please note that market conditions can change rapidly, and it's important to conduct thorough research and analysis before making any trading decisions. *In addition, based on the daily candlestick chart, there is also a bearish engulfing pattern observed. This pattern typically indicates a reversal of the previous bullish trend and suggests further downside potential for PTON. Combining this pattern with the mentioned bearish line and targets, it reinforces the bearish sentiment for the stock. As always, it's important to consider other factors and perform your own analysis before making any investment decisions.
NASDAQ:PTONShort
by shkspr