4PTON trade ideas
PTON correction at or near Completion? Peloton fib support zonesPart of my ongoing analysis of Peloton price action (see links below).
Peloton appears to have stabilized a bit, but likely has one more drop to come.
The perfect 5-wave uptrend is going through the requisite 3-wave correction.
Wave C most often goes further than wave A, so am expecting lower lows.
It is POSSIBLE that correction is done, with the $30 round number test.
But $30 psych and the red 3.618 were PIERCED, are now weak support.
$28.30-28.40 seems a LIKELY target for wave C, and $27.-- is possible.
Previous Analysis (click):
Dec 02, 2019: $37 Top Call
Dec 04, 2019: $35 2nd Top
Dec 10, 2019: $30 Target
Dec 16, 2019: $28 Buy Zone
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PTON correction NOT done yet? Peloton support zones to watchFollow up to my previous plots (see links on chart or below).
PTON was at natural "End Points" for several waves moving upward.
And surprise surprise, Social Media attack hits and knocks it down.
The bounce looks impressive on paper, but may be just a Bull Trap.
The rise was a clear 5 part move, or a "12345 Impulsive Wave".
Most corrections are 3 part moves, or "ABC Corrective Wave".
I believe we have completed wave "B" and starting wave "C".
Of course I could be totally WRONG and it shoots past $100 today.
Or it may not follow my plotted paths and just randomly WANDER.
But the zones WILL cause reactions, and that is WHAT to study.
$ 34.38/43 is the "Decision Zone", look where Daily close falls.
$ 29.51/71 is the "Most Bullish" retrace that can be expected.
$ 27.18/42 is the "Worst Case" unless this stock just collapses.
$ 35.26/35 is the immediate resistance which I expect to hold.
$ 36.00/02 could be the "UpThrust" before a sharp pullback.
$ 36.65/70 could be a "Double Top" with lower high, gulp.
Previous Analysis on Dec 02, 2019: $ 37 Top Call :
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Previous Analysis on Dec 04, 2019: $ 31 Bounce Call :
PTON peaked EXACTLY as expected, Peloton now in Retrace WatchFollowup to my first map for PTON topping zones (click) .
So we peaked exactly as expected and are retracing now.
First leg down could have been just market wide pressure.
But second leg down is on a positive day for most indices. (uh oh)
Plotted EW paths are just GUESSES as to the retrace.
But the ZONES are SOLID and each will cause a reaction.
So we now we observe the action at our zones for clues.
It is also possible we do not get an "ABC" correction.
Perhaps we reach a support and bounce to new highs.
Perhaps we crash through supports to final destination.
The Numbers
$ 30.49-30.62 is the minimum expected target.
$ 29.51-29.73 is perhaps the most likely target.
$ 26.45-26.84 should be VERY STRONG support.
DISCLAIMER :
I know NOTHING about this company (other than TV ads).
I do NOT OWN nor SHORT this asset (the stock nor bike).
PURELY for educational purposes (not financial advice).
Previous plot looking for $35.-- or $37.00 top :
Bullish PTONThis correction is a nice opportunity to get long here. We should see price action reverse course soon and the 37.13 level should be achieved to the upside in the next few weeks.
PTON - $37.20 PTThis looks like it has a little way to go before a breather is in store. New IPO very volatile and who knows but this is starting to get overbought and should pull back soon.
PTON Support Resistance zones via Fibonacci: Peliton near a top?Plot to study this asset's behavior around key Fib multiples.
Is this one of the few IPO's with immediate success this year?
Or is it about to run out of steam and wither away like many?
I know what you are thinking of the chart above:
"Draw enough lines and some will hit every time".
My goal is to study the price action at each zone.
Some of these waves could dictate the future for years to come.
Thus it is important to study the "birth" of a stock in great detail.
We will see a retrace at some point, which will offer many clues.
34.26 - 34.44 is immediate Resistance, Blue 4.618 possible wave End.
36.70 - 37.09 is next Resistance, Blue 5.236 very common wave ender.
39.75 - 39.90 would be the maximum expected before a correction.
It is actually possible we have technically TOPPED.
Or maybe we see a BULL TRAP above then steep drop.
Or I am totally WRONG and it goes straight past $100 :)
I will post updates at key milestones or rapid changes.
Time to ring the register In PelotonThe 2.0 Fin expansion target was hit today and the stock has retreated.
Despite upgrades, large short interest and heavy call buying this may a good time to cash in as the stock is overbought and could be source of some profit taking into the year end.
Unusual options
Peloton Interactive call volume above normal and directionally bullish Bullish option flow detected in Peloton Interactive with 10,764 calls trading, 4x expected, and implied vol increasing almost 10 points to 78.30%. Jan-20 33 puts and Dec-19 36 calls are the most active options, with total volume in those strikes near 6,200 contracts. The Put/Call Ratio is 0.60. Earnings are expected on February 5th. Read more at:thefly.com
Peloton Interactive, Inc. is the interactive fitness platform, which engages in the operation of in-studio fitness classes, fitness clubs, at-home fitness equipment & content and health & wellness apps. It operates through the following segments: Connected Fitness Products, Subscription, and Other. The Connected Fitness Products segment engages in the sale of bike and tread and related accessories, associated fees for delivery and installation, and extended warranty agreements. The Subscription segment engages in the connected fitness subscription and digital subscription. The Other segment consists of peloton branded apparel. The company was founded by John Foley, Tom Cortese, Yony Feng, Hisao Kushi, Marion Roaman, and Graham Stanton in 2012 and is headquartered in New York, NY.
Looking Exhausted, Step off the Bike and Cool DownPeloton has miraculously revitalized the Trend of In-Home Aerobics crap
You all remember the 80s-90s when Mom and Dad spent a fortune on crap they only used for a year or less?
Yep we are seeing it again, This time its with the Credit Card everything generations.
Very big bubble, could inflate much higher - like Pot Stocks or Impossible Meat
$PTON Peloton rises on revenue beat, but wider loss.The stock has a enormous short interest which could help the stock rally but maybe this earnings report is not strong enough for them to through in the towel.
Average analysts estimate BUY | $30.85
Seeking Alpha article
Peloton Interactive (NASDAQ:PTON) reports connected fitness subscribers rose 103% in Q3 to expand the total member base to over 1.6M.
The company says its churn rate was 0.90% on average and its 12-month retention rate is at 94%.
Adjusted EBITDA for the period was -$21M.
Cash used in operations was -$76.2M during the quarter. Capital expenditures were -$22.5M the majority of which is related to the continued build out the new Peloton Studios in New York City and London, the New York City headquarters, and new showrooms.
Shares of Peloton are up 5.44% to $25.95 vs. the post-IPO trading range of $20.46 to $27.98.
