BTC Crypto Futures Trade Plan 2025-05-26BTC Crypto Analysis Summary (2025-05-26)
Comprehensive Summary of Each Model
Grok/xAI Report
BTC at $109,553, trading above all major MAs (20/50/200 SMAs, 9/21 EMAs) → strong bullish trend RSI 67.02 (approaching overbought), MACD positive but slight bearish divergence Volume declining → possible consolidation or reduced buying interest Funding rate low (0.0002%) → not overleveraged long Trade suggested: long at $110,000, SL $107,000, TP1 $113,000, TP2 $115,000, size 1% equity, confidence 80%
Claude/Anthropic Report
Confirms price above all key MAs, RSI approaching overbought, MACD divergence Price near upper Bollinger Band → resistance Concludes short-term momentum weakening → moderately bearish bias Recommends no trade (confidence 72%), waits for break above $111,800 or below $105,000
Llama/Meta Report
Bullish MA alignment, RSI slightly overbought, price near upper BB Funding rate neutral, sentiment generally positive Trade suggested: long on pullback to SMA20 at $105,295.59, SL $103,000, TP $110,000, size = 2–3% equity, confidence 80%
Gemini/Google Report
Strong bullish trend (EMA9 > EMA21 > SMA20 > SMA50 > SMA200), RSI 67, BB upper ~$111,724 MACD bearish crossover → potential short-term pullback Recommends long at ~$109,550, SL $107,700, TP $113,100, size 1 BTC, confidence 75%
DeepSeek Report
Price near upper Bollinger Band, MACD bearish crossover, RSI divergence Countertrend short trade: entry $109,553, SL $111,725, TP $105,295, size 1 BTC, confidence 75% Areas of Agreement and Disagreement
Agreement
BTC is in a strong uptrend, trading above all major moving averages RSI ~67 suggests rising momentum but nearing overbought MACD shows a bearish divergence or crossover, warning of short-term momentum loss Price is close to the upper Bollinger Band → stretched conditions
Disagreement
Directional bias: Grok, Llama, and Gemini bullish; Claude is cautious/no-trade; DeepSeek bearish countertrend Entry levels: ranges from pullbacks to 105k (Llama) to market price ~109.55k (Gemini/Grok) Risk appetite: varying leverage and position-sizing recommendations Trade/no-trade: Claude advises holding; others recommend active positions Conclusion and Trade Recommendation
Overall Market Direction Consensus
Moderately Bullish: the dominant trend is up, supported by MA structure and recent performance, despite short-term momentum warnings.
Recommended Trade
Direction: Long BTC futures Entry Range: Near current market (109,500–109,600) or immediate retest of EMA9 (~109,550) Stop Loss: 107,700 (below EMA9 and minor support) Take Profit: 113,100 (just above recent swing highs/upper BB) Position Size: 1 BTC (adjust per account to risk ~1–2%) Confidence Level: 78%
Key Risks and Considerations
Momentum Divergence: MACD bearish crossover and RSI near overbought may trigger a pullback Volatility Spikes: leverage can amplify slippage and liquidation risk Broader Crypto Moves: altcoin correlation or market-wide news can quickly shift prices Funding Rate Shifts: a sudden spike could accelerate long-side liquidations
TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format) { "instrument": "BTC", "direction": "long", "entry_price": 109550.0, "stop_loss": 107700.0, "take_profit": 113100.0, "size": 1, "confidence": 0.78, "entry_timing": "market_open" }
📊 TRADE DETAILS 📊 🎯 Instrument: BTC 📈 Direction: LONG 💰 Entry Price: 109550.0 🛑 Stop Loss: 107700.0 🎯 Take Profit: 113100.0 📊 Size: 1 💪 Confidence: 78% ⏰ Entry Timing: market_open
Disclaimer: This newsletter is not trading or investment advice but for general informational purposes only. This newsletter represents my personal opinions based on proprietary research which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, and options trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. No guarantee of any profit whatsoever is made. In fact, you may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators, and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC, or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. By reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms. Any screenshots used here are courtesy of TradingView. I am just an end user with no affiliations with them. Information and quotes shared in this blog can be 100% wrong. Markets are risky and can go to 0 at any time. Furthermore, you will not share or copy any content in this blog as it is the authors' IP. By reading this blog, you accept these terms of conditions and acknowledge I am sharing this blog as my personal trading journal, nothing more.
4USX1 trade ideas
X Swing Options Trade Plan 2025-05-23X Swing Analysis Summary (2025-05-23)
Model Summaries • Grok/xAI Report – Strongly bullish across 15-min, daily, and weekly timeframes; price above all key EMAs. – RSI overbought (15-min 76.7, daily 81.3, weekly 71.7) and touching upper Bollinger Bands but MACD remains positive. – Positive news catalyst (U.S. Steel/Nippon partnership) and call OI at $55 suggests further upside. – Recommends buying the $55 call (expiry 2025-06-06) at $0.22, 50% profit target to $0.33, stop-loss at $0.11, 80% confidence.
• Claude/Anthropic Report – Technicals severely overbought; short-term pullback likely despite fundamental news. – Max pain at $45.50 vs current $53.22 signals mean reversion. – Recommends buying puts, ideally $50 strike, targeting reversion to max pain, 75% confidence.
• Llama/Meta Report – Moderately bullish: price well above EMAs, bullish MACD, but overbought RSI/Bollinger Bands and max pain counter-signal. – Recommends buying the $55 call at $0.22, profit target $0.50, stop-loss $0.10, hold up to 10 days, 75% confidence.
• DeepSeek Report – Strongly bullish: parabolic move, high-volume news catalyst, price above upper bands. – Recommends buying the $55 call (expiry 6/06) at $0.22, target 100–150% gain ($0.44–$0.55), stop if price closes below $51.97, 80% confidence.
• Gemini/Google Report – Moderately bullish: powerful news and momentum outweigh overbought signals in the near term. – Recommends buying the $55 call at market open, entry $0.22–$0.25, profit target $0.44/$0.66, stop-loss $0.11, 70% confidence.
Agreements and Disagreements • Agreement: Four of five models favor buying the $55 call for a near-term swing. • Disagreement: Claude advocates a bearish put play ($50 strike) due to extreme overbought conditions and max pain. • Risk view: All acknowledge overbought RSI/Band readings; only Claude sees near-term downside.
Conclusion • Overall Market Direction Consensus: Moderately to strongly bullish in the very short term, driven by a major news catalyst and sustained momentum. • Recommended Trade: Buy a single-leg, naked $55 call option expiring 2025-06-06. • Strategy: Naked call purchase. • Expiration: 2025-06-06 (swing‐trade timeframe). • Premium: $0.22 per contract. • Entry Timing: Enter at market open. • Confidence Level: 75% • Key Risks and Considerations: – Severely overbought RSI and price trading above upper Bollinger Bands—risk of pullback. – Elevated VIX and max pain at $45.50 exert downside pressure over the next two weeks. – Low absolute premium and liquidity—wide bid/ask spread potential. – News-driven volatility could reverse if there’s profit-taking or adverse headlines.
TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format)
{ "instrument": "X", "direction": "call", "strike": 55.0, "expiry": "2025-06-06", "confidence": 0.75, "profit_target": 0.44, "stop_loss": 0.11, "size": 1, "entry_price": 0.22, "entry_timing": "open", "signal_publish_time": "2025-05-23 15:51:18 UTC-04:00" } 📊 TRADE DETAILS 📊 🎯 Instrument: X 🔀 Direction: CALL (LONG) 🎯 Strike: 55.00 💵 Entry Price: 0.22 🎯 Profit Target: 0.44 🛑 Stop Loss: 0.11 📅 Expiry: 2025-06-06 📏 Size: 1 📈 Confidence: 75% ⏰ Entry Timing: open 🕒 Signal Time: 2025-05-23 15:51:33 EDT
Disclaimer: This newsletter is not trading or investment advice but for general informational purposes only. This newsletter represents my personal opinions based on proprietary research which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, and options trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. No guarantee of any profit whatsoever is made. In fact, you may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators, and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC, or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. By reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms. Any screenshots used here are courtesy of TradingView. I am just an end user with no affiliations with them. Information and quotes shared in this blog can be 100% wrong. Markets are risky and can go to 0 at any time. Furthermore, you will not share or copy any content in this blog as it is the authors' IP. By reading this blog, you accept these terms of conditions and acknowledge I am sharing this blog as my personal trading journal, nothing more.
U.S. Steel (X) Shares Drop 10% Following Presidential CommentsUnited States Steel Corporation (NYSE: NYSE:X ) shares dropped sharply after remarks from former President Donald Trump. He opposed the company's potential sale to Japan's Nippon Steel. Trump said he admired Japan but opposed the sale of an iconic American steel company.
He described U.S. Steel as “a very special company” and tied it to national interests. His statement caused a wave of uncertainty in the market. The stock dropped 15% shortly after the news. During extended trading, it fell as much as 16%.
As of 11:41 AM EDT, the stock trades at $42.03, down $3.11 (6.89%), as trading volume hits 19.7 million shares. Investors are concerned about the deal's future. U.S. Steel is central to U.S. economic and industrial discussions.
The takeover deal has raised questions about manufacturing and national security. The company is expected to report earnings between April 30 and May 5, 2025.
Technical Analysis
The 3-day chart shows a long-term uptrend. Price respects an ascending trendline starting at$16 in June 2022. Support lies above the 200-day moving average at $34.44. The 50-day and 100-day moving averages sit at $37.51 and $38.76, respectively.
The stock recently broke above $45 but pulled back after Trump's comments. Resistance lies at $50.20 and a breakout above this level could lead to further gains. The 3-day RSI sits at 55.89, suggesting neutral momentum that has room for the price to cover without reading an overbought reading.
However, a sharp drop could push it lower. Volume surged on the sell-off, confirming a strong market reaction. Adding to the bullish momentum is a complete head and shoulder pattern that signals potential recovery.
The short-term outlook depends on deal clarity and upcoming earnings. However, the trend remains intact above $34, and a move below could signal further downside.
USA Steel IH&S benefits due to tarifs 90% move? IH&S on back of Trumps tariffs last time it did really well under tariffs
Plenty of room to over perform and go much higher back to ATH?
Assuming the bear does not turn up right about now. Or maybe thats why this target seems low to us now but will be a nice protected move later on with hindsight.
I'm watching 38.12 as Resistance...I laid out some supporting evidence that I currently see, looking at the chart of NYSE:X
This has been consolidating for a couple of weeks leading up to its' earnings report and 38.12 has positioned itself as a long term supply zone. It looks as if it's going to take a ride down the roller coaster to previous demand zones. Which leads me to believe, NYSE:X will coast right on by the 1st demand zone and test the 2nd support level before consolidating again and making its' next move.
I am interested in the following short plays:
38 Put and 37 Put expiring 2/14
37 Put and 35 Put expiring 2/28
Again, my beloved TradingView traders, I am not a financial advisor (yet) nor am I your next financial guru. However, I am a student of the game and love to share my thoughts on what could be! My plan is to check back in a couple times a week and leave any updates along the way. Good luck on your trading journey and remember... Always, Always, Always Take Profits!
X to $35My trading plan is very simple.
I buy or sell when price tags the top or bottom of parallel channels.
I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels.
So...
Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing.
Price at bottom of channels (period 100 52 39)
Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at oversold level
VBSM is negative and at bottom of Bollinger Band
Price at or near 1.618 Fibonacci level
Entry at $30.50
Target is $35 or channel top
The $X your mum warns you aboutKey Stats
Dividend Yield: 0.66% (Not exactly a retirement dream here)
Market Cap: $6.79B
Next Earnings Date: January 30, 2025
Technical Reasons for Decline
1️⃣ Head and Shoulders Breakdown: X recently completed a textbook head-and-shoulders pattern, breaking below $26.50 support with high volume. The next significant support zone sits near $22.00.
2️⃣ Bearish Moving Averages: The 50-day MA is crossing below the 200-day MA (death cross), often signaling more downside.
3️⃣ RSI Deterioration: Momentum is fading, with RSI hovering near 38, showing weak buying interest and no signs of a reversal.
Fundamental Reasons for Decline
1️⃣ Falling Steel Prices: Declining global steel demand due to slowing construction and manufacturing activity weighs heavily on X’s revenue projections.
2️⃣ CapEx Concerns: High capital expenditure commitments ($2.5B planned for 2024) will pressure cash flow, especially in a downturn.
3️⃣ Macro Headwinds: The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and potential economic slowdown spell trouble for cyclical industries like steel.
Potential Paths to Profit
Option 1 (Low Risk): Sell short shares of X or use inverse ETFs if available.
Option 2 (Moderate Risk): Buy February 2025 $25 strike puts and aim for a 20%-100% profit.
Disclaimer: We are not a brokerage or investment firm. We do not offer financial advice or investment advice and/or signals. This is not certified financial education. We offer access to the daily thought process of an individual and his experiences. We do not offer refunds. All sales are final.
Please LIKE, FOLLOW, SHARE, and COMMENT if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is the best way to keep this signal relevant, keep the content free, and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible.
Opening (IRA): X January 17th 33 Covered Call... for a 30.36 debit.
Comments: High IVR/IV at 99.4/105.2. Selling the -75 delta call against long stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 30.36
Max Profit: 2.64
ROC at Max: 8.70%
50% Max: 1.32
ROC at 50% Max: 4.35%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max.
U.S Steel's $14.9 Bln Merger with Nippon Faces White House BlockOverview:
U.S. Steel’s proposed $14.9 billion merger with Nippon Steel is facing a major roadblock as President Joe Biden is reportedly set to block the bid, citing national security concerns. This development follows intense scrutiny from the White House, labor unions, and bipartisan political opposition, throwing the future of the deal into uncertainty.
Merger Background
Nippon Steel, Japan’s leading steelmaker, announced its intention to acquire U.S. Steel in December 2023 with the goal of creating a global steel giant. The proposed $55-per-share offer promised significant enhancements to U.S. Steel’s production capabilities, technological innovation, and overall competitiveness, especially against state-supported competitors like China.
Despite these promises, the merger faced hurdles, including regulatory reviews and objections from U.S. labor unions concerned about job security and mill closures. U.S. Steel shareholders supported the merger in April 2024, and regulatory approvals from other countries were secured, but the U.S. approval remained elusive.
White House Intervention and National Security Concerns:
Two sources familiar with the situation revealed that President Biden plans to block Nippon Steel's acquisition, emphasizing the potential national security risks. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) still needs to make its recommendation, but there’s growing speculation that the President’s stance may influence the committee’s final decision.
This situation highlights a significant geopolitical dimension, with the U.S. government wary of foreign influence in critical industries, particularly from non-allied nations. The Biden administration's concern centers on maintaining control over domestic production capabilities vital to national security, especially amid rising tensions with state-backed Chinese competitors.
Market Reaction and Investor Concerns:
U.S. Steel’s stock experienced a sharp decline, closing at $29.38, which is approximately 47% below Nippon Steel’s $55-per-share offer. This wide deal spread reflects investor skepticism that the merger will proceed. Merger arbitrageurs noted that while CFIUS typically recommends action before the President makes a decision, the current scenario appears reversed, adding to market uncertainty.
Frederic Boucher, a merger arbitrage specialist, remarked, “Is the President trying to pressure CFIUS into recommending the deal should be blocked? Investors aren’t waiting for clarification and are exiting quickly.” This sentiment is evident as options trading volume on U.S. Steel surged, reflecting heightened bearish bets on the stock.
Potential Impact on U.S. Steel:
The failure of the merger poses serious implications for U.S. Steel’s future operations. The company has warned that a collapse could jeopardize thousands of union jobs and lead to the closure of some mills. U.S. Steel also highlighted the potential shift of its Pennsylvania headquarters, a move that could disrupt local economies and the broader U.S. steel industry.
Nippon Steel had committed over $2.7 billion in investment in U.S. facilities in Pennsylvania and Indiana, contingent on the deal’s approval. Without the merger, these investments are at risk, further straining U.S. Steel’s ability to modernize and compete globally.
Technical Analysis:
From a technical perspective, U.S. Steel ( NYSE:X ) shares are navigating volatile trading conditions. The stock fell by 17% in extended trading on Wednesday but showed some resilience, rising 2.11% in Thursday’s premarket session. The price movement suggests a potential bullish reversal pattern could emerge if normal trading supports this premarket rally, especially if investor sentiment stabilizes.
Outlook:
The unfolding situation underscores the complexities of global mergers in strategic industries, particularly when national security considerations are at play. For U.S. Steel, the road ahead is fraught with regulatory hurdles, and the Biden administration’s position is a critical variable that could shape the company’s future trajectory.
Investors will need to closely monitor further developments, particularly the CFIUS decision and any official announcements from the White House. As the debate continues, the broader implications for U.S. industrial policy and foreign investments in critical sectors remain a focal point for market participants.
Intuition Stock X Short SetupLaying in bed yesterday morning I asked for a stock and immediately got X and the number 34. This is really just journaling these ideas for reference later to see what they end up doing. It's up over 3% today, and I know the last idea, DAL had a decent move right after I got it and made a swing low and popped pretty decent.
Btw, to fill in the details, I use dowsing with a pendulum for answers.
Since this is a decent move up today right after I get the name, I'm wondering if this will be the pattern where you fade the first move right after I get the name?
The message on this is to watch for a reversal down, but up in the near term.
I also was given dates. The 11th as an exit of the long (though I don't have a ton of faith in this), and a short entry on the 16th.
It might be that there is a sideways to down choppiness until the 16th, but I'm not sure.
The area to watch for a reversal is around $43.
It's not far from there now, and it may go a bit higher, but should reverse down.
That's all for now.
Nippon Steel's Acquisition Sends U.S. Steel Stock PlummetingPresident Joe Biden's expressed concerns over Nippon Steel's proposed acquisition of U.S. Steel ( NYSE:X ) have ignited a flurry of political speculation and market volatility. With Biden's impending statement raising questions about national security implications and regulatory scrutiny, investors brace for potential obstacles to the $14.9 billion deal.
Political Opposition and National Security Concerns:
Biden's plan to voice apprehension over Nippon Steel's acquisition of the iconic U.S. Steel underscores mounting bipartisan scrutiny and national security apprehensions surrounding the deal. Democratic and Republican senators have voiced reservations, citing concerns over the lack of consultation with U.S. Steel's main union and the strategic importance of the steel industry to national defense.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment:
News of Biden's intervention sent shockwaves through the financial markets, with U.S. Steel's stock plummeting by 12% amid heightened uncertainty and speculation. Investors react swiftly to political developments, recalibrating their positions amidst the prospect of increased regulatory hurdles and potential delays in the acquisition process.
Nippon Steel's Strategic Maneuver and U.S. Steel's Response:
Nippon Steel's ambitious bid to acquire U.S. Steel was driven by optimism surrounding Biden's infrastructure bill and expectations of favorable spending and tax incentives. However, Biden's intervention injects a new layer of complexity into the deal, raising questions about its viability and regulatory approval. U.S. Steel, founded over a century ago and deeply entrenched in American industrial history, faces mounting pressure amid declining revenue and profit margins.
Implications for the Steel Industry and Global Trade:
Biden's stance on the Nippon Steel acquisition underscores broader implications for the steel industry and global trade dynamics. The intersection of economic policy, national security considerations, and international relations shapes the regulatory landscape, impacting the strategic direction of major corporations and influencing market sentiment.
Japan's Nippon Steel to Acquire U.S. Steel for $14.9 BillionJapan's Nippon Steel clinched a deal on Monday to buy U.S. Steel ($X.) for $14.9 billion in cash, prevailing in an auction for the 122-year-old iconic steelmaker over rivals.
The deal marks the latest step in a gradual decline for the iconic 122-year old company, which was once the largest company on the planet. It was one of the first major conglomerates and a symbol of American industrial might.
But it is no longer even the largest US steelmaker, having been surpassed by Nucor Steel years ago.
Earlier this summer the United Steelworkers union vowed to only support a proposed offer by another unionized American steel company, Cleveland Cliffs, to buy US Steel, in a cash and stock deal then valued at $32.53 a share, or 40% less than Nippon’s all cash offer. The US Steel board rejected that offer and started considering other bids.
US Steel’s statement said that Nippon Steel has a strong track record of safety in the workplace and working collaboratively with unions, that all union contracts will remain in place and that Nippon Steel is committed to maintaining these relationships uninterrupted.
Technical Analysis
U.S. Steel (NYSE: NYSE:X ) has since reacted to the news of the buyout offer from Nippon Steel surging to about 26% today as of the time of writing, with the stock trading above all its Moving Averages. United States Steel has also broken the rising trend up in the medium long term.
U.S. Steel Received Multiple Bids in Excess of $40 a ShareU.S. Steel has received multiple bids for the steelmaker in excess of $40 a share, sources familiar told CNBC.
In regards to the news, U.S. Steel shares rose more than 3%.
The sale process started in August when rival Cleveland-Cliffs made an unsolicited bid of $7.3 billion. U.S. Steel rejected that offer.
United States Steel Corporation (NYSE: X) Hits Fresh HighUnited States Steel (NYSE: X) Shares have been on the move with the stock up 5.9% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $36.64 in the previous session. United States Steel has gained 45.8% since the start of the year compared to the 7% move for the Zacks Basic Materials sector and the 28% return for the Zacks Steel - Producers industry.
What's Driving the Outperformance?
The stock has an impressive record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn't missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on October 26, 2023, U.S. Steel reported EPS of $1.4 versus consensus estimate of $1.15.
For the current fiscal year, U.S. Steel is expected to post earnings of $4.33 per share on $17.83 billion in revenues. This represents a -56.48% change in EPS on a -15.37% change in revenues. For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $2.88 per share on $16.2 billion in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of -33.32% and -9.13%, respectively.
Price Momentum
United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:X) is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average.
Investors have been pushing the share price higher, and the stock still appears to have upward momentum. This is a positive sign for the stock's future value.
X is bullish nowThe price seems to be traded in a large range. Higher lows structure still in tact . Bullish trend continuation may be expected.
The breakout is very likely in the next weeks.
46$ is a target for bulls
If bears take control, we may see retest of the range bottom.
In a current market conditions, in our opinion more likely is a bullish scenario.
Good luck
X United States Steel Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought X here:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of X United States Steel Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 26usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-10-20,
for a premium of approximately $1.24.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.