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4XOM trade ideas

Hedging bets on energyThere's a lot of action in energy stocks today as Donald Trump announced on Twitter that Saudi Arabia and Russia are closing in on a deal to cut production by 10-15 million barrels per day. This is going to be challenging, since the two countries only produce 23 million barrels per day between them, so they'd have to cut their production in half. Shortly after Trump's tweet, a Russian spokesman announced that in fact no specifics have been discussed, so it seems that Trump's tweet was very premature. Nevertheless, there's some reason to think that Saudi Arabia, at least, will cut production. Last night, Senator Kevin Cramer said he had told Trump that "we should not keep armed forces in Saudi Arabia protecting their oil assets while the Kingdom declares war on our oil producers." In other words, Cramer told Trump to twist the Kingdom's arm by threatening to withdraw US troops amid a rebellion in Yemen and threats from Iran. Assuming that this is, in fact, the strategy Trump is using, I think it's very likely to succeed whether Russia plays ball or not. Here are a couple other bullish signs for energy: the US is addressing the storage shortage by renting out space in the strategic oil reserve to private companies, and crude inventories are falling in China for the first time in months because refineries have reopened there. On the other hand, there are bearish signs too: Rystad Energy predicts a large decrease in energy demand in April, and today's jobless claims report would tend to confirm that. 6 million jobs lost means the economy is in a very bad place, and the weakening of demand may persist long after lockdowns are over. It's hard to resist taking some positions in the energy sector with so many bargain dividends available, such as the nearly 10% dividend on Exxon-Mobil. (And Exxon should have the cash to be able to sustain that dividend even if oil prices remain weak.) However, what if oil prices continue to fall? For that scenario, it's useful to have a hedge. I am hedging my Exxon-Mobil position with an oil tanker stock, specifically Frontline, Ltd. (FRO). Tankers and producers have been moving opposite each other, with tanker stocks gaining when oil prices fall and falling when oil prices rise. That's because weak oil prices lead producers to ship their oil to storage locations, which increases demand for tankers. Frontline has a nearly 20% dividend yield right now, so I should make money from dividends on both sides of this trade, regardless of what happens to prices. I also have a smaller hedge in USO, an ETF that holds physical oil. This is because rising oil prices may not always be good for Exxon-Mobil. What if oil prices rise because big producers like Exxon have cut production? Then both my Exxon stock and my Frontline stock would fall even as physical oil prices rise. So I want to have some physical oil in my portfolio too, to offset the effects of any Exxon-Mobil production cuts. Unfortunately there are no dividends from USO, which is why I have only a small hedge here.
NYSE:XOMLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
26
EXXON MOBILEXXON Fib Levels. Disclaimer: We are not registered or licensed in any jurisdiction whatsoever to provide investing advice or anything of an advisory or consultancy nature, and are therefore are unqualified to give investment recommendations. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed investment professional before investing. This communication is never to be used as the basis of making investment decisions, and it is for entertainment purposes only.
NYSE:XOM
by CryptoTrend-Alerts
2