EUR/PLN bulls are struggling to regain their momentum backEUR/PLN bulls are struggling to regain their momentum back in the sessions resulting in the pair to trade sideways in recent days. After the pair touched its resistance level in the past sessions, bears were able to tone down the momentum of bulls. Still, looking at the chart, it’s evident that bullish investors continue to hold on to their gains as the pair remains widely bullish. Since the second half of March, bulls have propelled the 50-day moving average farther above the 200-day moving average, signaling a promising bullish run for the pair in the near-term trading. Moreover, according to recent reports, for the first time in record, the National Bank of Poland has started to purchase government bonds. The quantitative easing worried the investors of the Polish zloty, leaving the currency volatile in the forex market. Reports say that a bond-buying operation worth PLN 30.6 billion has trigger questions and concerns for the Polish economy’s status.
EURPLN trade ideas
EUR/PLN BULLLISH PENNANT IDEATake a look at the eur/pln to see a possible bullish pennant in consolidation, our strategy will consist in waiting the pullback before to place our long entry (also 4h chart relevant) .
Pay particular attention to possible different developments of the price action because of this technical figure might turns out to be a descendant triangle, for this reason will be essential to WAIT FOR THE PULLBACK.
Reasonable profit target at least the previous highs.
EUR/PLN MULTI-TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS Hello Traders, here is the full analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
5 PLN coming soon!Hi All,
I think we will see the Euro trading at the price of 5 PLN until the end of this year. Here is WHY:
From a fundamental perspective:
Capital in times of panic and distress migrates from emerging markets (Poland is still regarded as such by many investors) toward the US dollar (and other safe currencies such as: JPY, CHF and EUR) -which is then converted into US treasuries.
What is more the Polish Central Bank is launching his own expansionary monetary policy in response to the Corona Crisis. It is not only providing extra liquidity to the banking sector through repo transactions (up to 10 billions PLN a week), but it also lowered the minimum reserve ratio from 3,5% to 0,5%!
This means the PCB will flood the banking sector with funny money which will eventually spill into the market.
The PCB will increase it's balance sheet by about 200 billions , which will be almost 9% of the Polish GDP. In the US Q1 had about the same proportions! This is BIG!
What is more the current interest rate in Poland is at it's historical low: 0,5% which combined with an accelerating inflation (around 5%) doesn't make the polish bond market a tempting destination. During the next waves of market panic the polish Zloty will face a strong devaluation against major currencies.
From a technical perspective:
We just broke through a multi-year consolidation triangle. We completed a 5 Elliot Wave pattern inside it and exploded to the up-side with an enormous volume (green cyrcle) in mid-March. This is extremely bullish!
Prepare for another bull run on EURPLN.
My target: 5 PLN.
H&S pattern on EURPLNThis is a short-term retracement that is expected to take place after such a dynamic impulse.
TA:
H&S pattern, confirmed by divergence on RSI and falling volume
falling RSI
I didn't want to mess up the chart so I excluded from it the Ichimoku indicator. We just broke into the Ichimoku cloud. What is more the cloud i reversing - turning red. Those are bearish signals.
From a fundamental perspective:
Capital in times of panic and distress is migrating from emerging markets (Poland is still regarded as such by many investors) toward US treasuries.
What is more the current interest rate in Poland is at it's historical low: 1% which combined with an accelerating inflation (around 5%) doesn't makes the polish bond market a tempting destination. During the next waves of market panic the polish Zloty will face a strong devaluation against major currencies.
I think this retracement will be just a preparation for another bull run on EURPLN.
I expect the price to fall till 4.38 PLN level and meet a very strong resistance zone that have been acting as a major support/resistence level for the last decade.
+ we will probably touch the 200 MA which will also act as a support level.
From that point I expect the EURPLN to explode north with a final destination around 5 PLN.
This is a bold call so please... appreciate it ;)
GL & HF ;)
MULTI YEAR TRIANGLEPrice moves in multi year triangle and currently in last wave E.
As wave E is about to finish I expect continuation to upside with target around 5.3000 level.
You can try to entry traditional way after breakout of triangle or if you more aggressive trader you can look for setups on lower time frames as last wave E might end very soon and we should have a major reversal.