EURPLN trade ideas
5 PLN coming soon!Hi All,
I think we will see the Euro trading at the price of 5 PLN until the end of this year. Here is WHY:
From a fundamental perspective:
Capital in times of panic and distress migrates from emerging markets (Poland is still regarded as such by many investors) toward the US dollar (and other safe currencies such as: JPY, CHF and EUR) -which is then converted into US treasuries.
What is more the Polish Central Bank is launching his own expansionary monetary policy in response to the Corona Crisis. It is not only providing extra liquidity to the banking sector through repo transactions (up to 10 billions PLN a week), but it also lowered the minimum reserve ratio from 3,5% to 0,5%!
This means the PCB will flood the banking sector with funny money which will eventually spill into the market.
The PCB will increase it's balance sheet by about 200 billions , which will be almost 9% of the Polish GDP. In the US Q1 had about the same proportions! This is BIG!
What is more the current interest rate in Poland is at it's historical low: 0,5% which combined with an accelerating inflation (around 5%) doesn't make the polish bond market a tempting destination. During the next waves of market panic the polish Zloty will face a strong devaluation against major currencies.
From a technical perspective:
We just broke through a multi-year consolidation triangle. We completed a 5 Elliot Wave pattern inside it and exploded to the up-side with an enormous volume (green cyrcle) in mid-March. This is extremely bullish!
Prepare for another bull run on EURPLN.
My target: 5 PLN.
EUR|PLN - Short OpportunityThere is an opportunity to short the EUR|PLN coming off the top of the descending channel .
H&S pattern on EURPLNThis is a short-term retracement that is expected to take place after such a dynamic impulse.
TA:
H&S pattern, confirmed by divergence on RSI and falling volume
falling RSI
I didn't want to mess up the chart so I excluded from it the Ichimoku indicator. We just broke into the Ichimoku cloud. What is more the cloud i reversing - turning red. Those are bearish signals.
From a fundamental perspective:
Capital in times of panic and distress is migrating from emerging markets (Poland is still regarded as such by many investors) toward US treasuries.
What is more the current interest rate in Poland is at it's historical low: 1% which combined with an accelerating inflation (around 5%) doesn't makes the polish bond market a tempting destination. During the next waves of market panic the polish Zloty will face a strong devaluation against major currencies.
I think this retracement will be just a preparation for another bull run on EURPLN.
I expect the price to fall till 4.38 PLN level and meet a very strong resistance zone that have been acting as a major support/resistence level for the last decade.
+ we will probably touch the 200 MA which will also act as a support level.
From that point I expect the EURPLN to explode north with a final destination around 5 PLN.
This is a bold call so please... appreciate it ;)
GL & HF ;)
Corona yet to comeCorona has not yet hit Poland to its full extend.
With its healthcare system in pretty bad shape, this can turn out pretty badly.
Looking to sell at historic all time high.
What's going to happen with PLN-EUR and PLN-CHF ?Here we go again: PLN will go strongly down while EUR and CHF will strengthen
MULTI YEAR TRIANGLEPrice moves in multi year triangle and currently in last wave E.
As wave E is about to finish I expect continuation to upside with target around 5.3000 level.
You can try to entry traditional way after breakout of triangle or if you more aggressive trader you can look for setups on lower time frames as last wave E might end very soon and we should have a major reversal.
EURPLN loosing momentum to the upside, look for sortsLong momentum has been slowing down and strong bearish momentum candle has appeared while rejecting the resistance level.
sort to the broken structure
i suggest taking half profit out at 1rr and moving stop loss at break even
