EURTRY trade ideas
EURTRY to continue DOWN!Downward trend, deviation from downward moving average, and retraced to trendline. The euro will continue to fall.
EURTY Long trade short termHello everyone,
We have a bullish trade on this pair (short term). Also the price is going up in a channel which bring me to SL point, the Sl would be below the X or when the price confirms the breakout to the downside. The targets are highlighted on the chart.
Let's see and Good Luck
Trees don't grow to the sky! Not even in Turkey!This Bull has become extremely stretched! Tehere are some warning signals for a possible sharp correction ahead!
Weekly:
- Ichimoku bullish, but very overbought, price far above equilibrium level marked by Kijun Sen and future Senkou B
- Heikin Ashi is still bullish, but we have a warning signal in haDelta, which after printing an extreme high around 0,20 (!) has stertd to build some negative divergence with its SMA3!
We have to watch weekly candle close, as the candle will still likely remain green, but the length of its wick and body will give further indication on Friday for next week(s)
- weekly supports and possible pull back tgts: 3,2670 / 3,1120
Daily:
- Bullish Ichimoku setup, but now substantial higher high compared to last peak of 24/Aug candle. Kijun Sen may start to attract price back a bit.
- Heikin Ashi candle today signals start of consolidation or maybe a pull back: candle with inside body and both upper and lower wicks. Our quantification tool, haDelta gives more early warning signals: haDelta/SMA3 cross down again with third lower high, which means negative divergence and tension in the market.
- Profit taking and corrective bearish wave can accelerate below 3,40-3,38
Please not that EURTRY has become extremely volatile! So may you enter a trade in any direction, take the increased volatility in account when you decide about size of your position!
This is my basic rule No.1: position sizes always have to be calculated based on your trading capital, your amount risked/trade (stop loss), and the volatility of the instrument (I use 20 days ATR)
My rule No 2.: Counter trend swing trades I do only with 0,5 risk unit (maximum 1 unit if momentum really works), while in trend direction I do minimum 1 trade unit, max up to 3-4 units leveraged.
Risk management and discipline are the alpha and omega of trading!
Hang in there holders of Turkish LiraAs you can see by my chart, every time the price has hit the top of the linear regression, and 0.04 on the MACD, the price has reversed back down again with the CCI, DeMarker and Stoch RSI gradually falling back into their respective channels. Without consideration of any further shocks to the market, I think that political instability, the conflict in the south and east, I believe these factors have already been built into the price. I dont' believe the price will fall back down in the next few days, but probably drift lower over the coming weeks with the price potentially hitting 3.20.
The overnight will hopefully make baring this loss a little more bearable and a small short at the top of the resistance line should be considered to mitigate open losing positions.
EURTRY - Enter some short again, as "risk on" growsI had one very nice counter trend trade in really small amount 11 days ago. I quickly closed that short (within 1 day) as I was not sure if the pattern repeats, and as even Tenkan Sen was still well below Price. It was a rght decision, as Price popped up again, and we had a bullish Heikin Ashi candle, and a spike back above 3,10.
Between 3,0850 - 3,10 I was hesitating again wether I should have sold or not. As I was not sure, I rather waited for two more days. These two days ended in neutral Heikin Ashi candles, with haDelta/SMA3 bearish bias. After all today, with higher confidence and probability I sold EURTRY again.
Stop is 3,11, first pull back tgt is 2,99, second tgt is 2,9575.
Position size should not be bigger than 0,5 trade unit as the trend is still up, and volatility (ATR) is very high!
Always know your risk!!!
EURTRY - Temporary slowdown in bullish momentumSome political turmoil in Turkey blew up their ccy recently. However even the strongest and most agressive Bull needs some rest.
Weekly:
- Ichimoku setup is bullish, but Price reached previous key level at 3,10+, which can be a temporary resistance ahead of further bullish move.
- Heikin Ashi setup is bullish, even next week's candle is likely to be green if we compare current candle body's mid and the actual price. However haDelta is reaching an extreme high zone. From this we often see some consolidation or pull back later.
Daily:
- Price has been moving in a wide uptrend channel, recently reached channel top
- Ichimoku setup is bullish, but price is above Kijun Sen by 3 %, so we may see some profit taking and chill down, Kijun can attract Price back in short term.
- Heikin Ashi has a signal of slowdown in bullish momentum: second inside bar candle today with lower low again. haDelta is coming lower sharply, after it reached an extreme high leveltwo days ago.
I opened 0,5 trade unit counter short, with a a tgt 3,01.
EURTRY : Wolfe Wave PatternEURTRY formed a Wolfe Wave pattern, I entered short at current levels with SL above 3.13 .
6 Trading Rules :
1. Never add to a losing position .
2. Don´t be the first to buy low and sell high .
3. Think like a fundamentalist, trade like a technician .
4. Keep your analysis simple
5. Start small and increase exposure when trend is confirming your analysis
6. The hard trade is the right trade
EURTRY - Get the carry below the Cloud, stay with the main trendWeekly:
- Bearish Ichimoku setup, with both Price and averages below the Kumo. Tenkan and Senkou A point down. Tenkan is below Kijun.
- 3 weeks of pull back within the bearish channel ends in a retest to Kijun Sen, which is an important bearish support. This week's Heiken Ashi candle is still green without lower wick, but with a lot smaller body. This also made a haDelta cross below SMA3. Sign for consolidation or for next possible wave down in line with the developing bearish trend.
Daily:
- Ichimoku setup turned to more neutral from bearish as with the swing up Price reached and is enterring the Kumo.
- 5 days ago we had a bearish Heikin Ashi switch, with the Oscillator and haDelta confirmations. Watch haDelta, which may cross down again below zero line!
- More likely we'll see further selling on this cross, but it will stay in a thick Kumo for a while. Anyway, the target for shorts can be the 2,71-2,72 zone (Kijun Sen and Kumo bottom). If it goes below, then it will go a lot lower, targetting 2,55-2,60 again.
Few things I have to add: TRY is really volatile, and their politics sometimes "strange" a bit. But on the other side you have such a positive carry holding Turkish Lira, that can not be ignored in the recent yield desert!
Follow the trend and get the carry as well!
TRY can give a reaction against this move soonTry has been sold hard for rumours about interest rate issues. It might be time for a reaction... USD is the more majorly taken currency but think EU would make a stronger downward move here... This should be the level to try this pait once more after realizing profits last time by EU zone monetary easing announcement..
EURTRY - More towards a correctionDaily: Bearish ichimoku setup, but looks oversold a bit. Trades at the bottom of the bearish trend channel, meanwhile Slow Stoch and MACD are both about giving a counter bullish signal. A correction from recent low is possible. Upper support levels are at 2,79 (key horizontal and Kijun Sen) and ard 2,83 (Kumo).
4 Hrs: Double bottom? You will know it only by the time a reliable Long entry signal is triggered. Why? Simply because that will mean Price breaks above trendline, 100 WMA and Kumo, so then the counter trend reversal will be clear.
Right now we are in consolidation phase, with Chikou Span hitting Price, low ADX, zig-zag DMI. However there is a slight bullish bias, as we have a weak bullish Tenkan/Kijun cross, and Price moved a bit higher after touching Kijun.
Counter long entry is marked on the chart. You must be very precise with timing if you take this trade, as it has a heavy negative carry to keep longs.
EURTRY - Bullish swing will likely extendDaily: From the hammer candle at the channel low the bearish momentum continues to switch to rather bullish.
MACD gave a buy signal, DMI lines closed in, Slow Stoch has been ticking higher. Flat Kijun Sen and flat Senkou B, both at 2,84 will likely attract the Price. It looks like the chance of a bullish swing to reach higher price again within the otherwise slightly bearish trend channel is increasing.
4 Hrs: Not yet a valid bullish Kumo break, but chances are better for further bullish move. Tenkan/Kijun cross is meadium to strong bullish, Chikou Span is above Price candles. Price is trading above Kumo, Kijun and 100 WMA. Future Kumo mad a bullish cross (bullish Senkou cross). However the momentum is still too low, ADX is much below 20 with zig-zag DMI, also Slow Stoch is confusing a bit.
For those who has not closed previous shorts is wise to close them for now. Price retested Kijun sen today, theoretically this is a good long entry point, but be careful, as if the momentum doesn't pick up soon, the deep negative cost of carry can kill your long position quite soon.
Tgts are: 2,84 or 2,86
EURTRY - Time to cover some shortsI have been sitting in this short position since September. For me this was not leveraged, but a cash converted carry trade from an avg px of 2,8650. It caused me some headaches when it popped up to 2,91, but as back then I had some equity shorts and the position was kind of converted from a previous long HUF for the carry pickup I decided to sit in it. Finally it made me a god money, but now I think it has become a bit too much overextended and is time to hedge.
Daily: Ichimoku components turned bearish, but meantime Price reached the bottom of a well defined channel as well. What's more, it looks like today candle will be a hammer, at a key level, and this is a good signal for a possible pull back in the trend, and Slow Stoch is also oversold. The first important support is ard 2,82-2,83, there we'll see what's the next signal is going to be.
4 Hrs: Bearish Ichimoku, but DMI-ADX shows serious overextension of the trend. Pull back is possible for the following supports: 2,80 (Kijun Sen), 2,82 (Senkou B and possibly 100 WMA will come down there soon as well)
EURTRY - Sell some based on 4 Hrs breakDaily: No major Ichimoku signal, rather neutral in terms of Ichimoku. Kumo is flat and thin, Tenkan and Kijun are both flat too. Chikou has no real information either. Yes it is a wide range with some descending angle.
Use rather classic indicators here to determin possible short term swings: MACD sell signal, Slow Stoch bearish.
Daily carry is excellent positive too to keep short EURTRY.
4 Hrs: Small bullish trend line broke, and retested. That meant also a Kumo and Kijun retest. Ichimoku lines point bearish, but no momentum yet. We need to see a break of 2,8570, then probably DMI will switch bearish too and also ADX will pick up above 20.
Strategy: Sell 1 Unit, Stop at 2,8660 (or higher, depends on your money management). Add to position on break below 2,8570. Tgt is 2,79-2,80.
EURTRY 26/05/2014 tosbaa200days support area.. under 2.83 target can be 2.66 but for me it is not possible..
Here is can be good area for long positions. Targets are 2.89 - 2.91.. max in one week
Possible EURTRY carry setup - 5.5% annual yield vs EURIt's going to happen eventually.
Technically now looks good but of course we could see another push higher.
CBoT's primary challenge for 2014 will be to slow inflation.
The statistics do not show a significant reflux of capitals from Turkey due to the political crisis for now but the Turkish people seem to lose faith in the national currency, Capital Daily reports.
According to data of Turkey’s Central Bank in the second half of 2013, i.e. after the start of the protests at Istanbul’s Gezi Park, Turkish households have converted in foreign currency an amount equal to $20 billion. If in July the deposits were $98.3 billion, now they have reached $119.3 billion.
This complicates the bank’s task to maintain the exchange rate of the Turkish lira stable in a moment, when the lira lost 7% of its value in a month (in a total of 17% devaluation for the entire 2013). At the same time the USA hits the stimulation of the economy with cheap US dollars, which affects countries like Turkey with a significant deficit in their account.
Why has the TRY fallen so hard over the last 5 years? This could be why. Rates have crashed.
www.deltastock.com
EURTRYGrafigi cok fazla suslemeye gerek yok. Kritik bir seviye.Usdtl ye cok bagli calisiyor. eurusd 1.36 da kalmaya devam ederse, dolartl nin 2.06 ya ataginda, kurun 2.82 yi gorme ihtimali var. Aksi halde 2.72 ye hizli bir dusus bekliyorum. Nasilsa bizim kabadayi dolartl sene sonu 1.92 dedi. Bu durumda eurusd nin de 1.33lere gerilemesi mumkunse, eurtl de 1.33*1.92 = 2.55 beklemek gerekir.
Ozetle,
Dolartl 2.045 den donerse hizla 2.72, sonra 2.5x li seviyeler,
Dolartl 2.045 ustunde kalirsa, 2.82 ve sonra 2.5x li seviyeler...
EURTRY sell chanceThe EURTRY might still have some potential to north, but it seems that it is almost "done".
The pink area is a chance for selling the EURTRY. I also would not wonder, if we correct right now.
