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Euro / Turkish Lira

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EURTRY trade ideas

EUR/TRY: long trade closed in profit (Demo) as trend at extreme.Hello traders, the readings on RSI and ATR, as well as the angle of the current hyperbolic move, make for difficult incentives for holding a long trade on EUR/TRY: therefore, I closed my trade about 50% through the profit target and made a healthy catch (over 26k). In this video the key points discussed are: - ATR divergence/waning (multi-timeframe analysis); - RSI poss. divergence and also extreme reading (90+) in monthly/weekly; - angle of hyperbolic rise starting to shape toward a vertical, strikingly similar to that of the 2018 move; - extreme oversold reading in the MSCI Turkey ETF iShares and fading sell volume after historic lows warns of Lira-short exhaustion. I also share a news source that is fundamental for Turkish Lira traders - watch the video to the end (no sales, it is a public resource)! Thanks. Stay safe Happy trading Francesco/FreeFX
by Forexistential
EUR/TRY technical and relative strength analysis.In this video I am looking at the relationship between EUR/TRY and the i-shares MSCI Turkey ETF, which allows us to look at volume data as a proxy for momentum in EUR/TRY, specifically addressing the following question: - is the MSCI Turkey ETF selling overdone? - what does the daily and weekly ETF's RSI tell us? - with the index reaching the 2018 lows, is there any more room to sell? The Lira is on an endless devaluation trajectory, but of course there may be room for some correction in the near future before further EUR/TRY (and other Lira pairs) appreciation. Food for thought. Francesco Sani, FreeFX
Long
by Forexistential
EUR/TRY long play, medium-term, using Fib extensions.EUR/TRY is one of the few FX pairs that can truly rival stock-market trending: this (and its parent pair, USD/TRY) has been uptrending almost incessantly for over a decade, something that is quite rare in the fx world - other examples are true outliers such as USD/IRR and USD/ARS, but these are not accessible through your ordinary broker. What I learnt from trading the summer 2018 correction into early 2019 was that this was a short-lived relief move for the Turkish Lira, but the uptrend has since returned with force and seems unstoppable. As I developed the Lira carry trade idea in 2018 and 2019 I managed (on demo) to accrue over £2k of interest by holding short, however I then realised that the pace of upward movement was soon outstripping any profit made by playing the short carry-trade. I stopped trading this pair long-term and only dipped back into it for intra-day trades to the long side, again appreciating that it has near-zero correlation to EUR/USD and is actually truly motivated by Turkish monetary events and speculative positioning of its own making. This means that on a quiet day trading the EUR/USD I could always look over to the EUR/TRY and find opportunities there, short-term, knowing full well that its higher intra-day range is also matched by very poor per-pip value and a very expensive margin requirement tag: all in all. a difficult pair to trade intra-day. This is where I am coming back to it for a slightly longer-term play: this time I am using FIbonacci expansion/extension tools, looking at the monthly line chart from the start of data (2008) up to the hyperbolic peak of summer 2018, then for the retracement down to the bottom of early 2019: the resulting projections give some realistic forecast of price movement into the future. Given that we are constantly breaking new highs, just like stocks or indices have been doing for years, it becomes impossible to use past prices to determine support/resistance zones, thus I am looking into this particular indicator to try gauging on a mathematical basis where we can expect price to reach. My target is actually 10,000 - a strong round-number level by definition - which is about half-way between the two nearest Fib levels, thus a reasonable chance of being filled; the trailing stop is at about 2:! Reward-Risk ratio and the position size is 1M. Let us see how this goes! Time-horizon is variable but I would give it about six weeks, thus until early December or so, to play out. Good luck trading out there. Francesco, FreeFX
Long
by Forexistential
3
EURTRY time to SELL Fundamentally, Turkey is important to stay in NATO , close to EU, supported by Germans, invested heavily in by Europeans and others. Negotiations with Greece will commence (starting in 2 weeks) and after all Turkey has nothing to lose and lot to gain from East Mediterranean Natural gas resources. Take this from a Greek like me, emotions are not good when you trade. Technically, EURTRY looks bearish on the charts too. The 9.00 mark acts as a strong rounded-number resistance level. Peace and prosperity to all and good trding wishes to our friends and followers
Short
by FX_Professor
1
The EUR/TRY pair’s 50-day MA will continue its upward trendTurkey’s up-and-down relationship with Greece has been causing unwanted tension in the forex market. Even after weeks of conflict between the two countries, it looks like even the announcement that they’re willing to start talks to resolve the issue wouldn’t be enough to ease worries. The EUR/TRY pair’s 50-day moving average will continue its upward trend after its surge against the 200-day moving average in early August, and it looks like the tables won’t turn until the countries come up with a definite agreement. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is content with the jumping euro because its president Christine Lagarde postponed her decision on interest rate policies to next week. Moreover, its gross domestic product contracted less than the market expected for the second quarter of 2020 compared to the first quarter. July had seen an 11.8 percent decline, less than the 12.1 percent initially estimated. The notion that the eurozone is improving faster than expected is projected to help the falling lira near-term.
Long
by Financebroker
The European Central Bank is content with the jumping euroTurkey’s up-and-down relationship with Greece has been causing unwanted tension in the forex market. Even after weeks of conflict between the two countries, it looks like even the announcement that they’re willing to start talks to resolve the issue wouldn’t be enough to ease worries. The EUR/TRY pair’s 50-day moving average will continue its upward trend after its surge against the 200-day moving average in early August, and it looks like the tables won’t turn until the countries come up with a definite agreement. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is content with the jumping euro because its president Christine Lagarde postponed her decision on interest rate policies to next week. Moreover, its gross domestic product contracted less than the market expected for the second quarter of 2020 compared to the first quarter. July had seen an 11.8 percent decline, less than the 12.1 percent initially estimated. The notion that the eurozone is improving faster than expected is projected to help the falling lira near-term.
Long
by Financebroker
2