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Euro / Turkish Lira

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EURTRY trade ideas

Bearish Divergence on EUR TRYThe CBRT responded to the recent lira weakening by tightening the liquidity conditions in a significant way, although more may need to be done to stabilize the markets. The CBRT first made a press announcement stating that a) liquidity measures introduced to support growth would be phased out; and b) all available instruments would be used to reduce market volatility (suggesting rate hikes could be on the agenda). The Bank then halved the amount of cheap funding (offered at 100bp below the policy rate) to primary dealers. Finally, the Bank did not open the daily 1-week repo auction (with the 8.25% interest rate), forcing banks to borrow from the more costly ON lending facility (with interest rate 9.75%). If the remaining 1-week repos are also not rolled over, then the CBRT’s effective funding rate will increase from 7.50% to 9.75% within a week. Such measures should help to reduce the demand for FX and should slow down the loan growth, mitigating worries over price and financial stability. However, it remains to be seen if they will be enough to restore confidence and to stabilize the markets.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn3984200
Reports for the EU member states’ GDPThe pair failed to break out from a major resistance line, sending the pair lower towards the nearest support line. Most reports for the EU member states’ GDP data will be published today, July 31. Yesterday, the EU’s largest economy already had its GDP results which disappointed investors. Germany’s economy for the second quarter of the fiscal year declined by 10.1%. Expectations for Q2 figures for France, Italy, and Spain’s economic performance were all double-digit declines as well. Spain is expected to suffer the worst decline among the three EU countries who will report today with -16.6%. Meanwhile, France and Italy’s forecast for its second-quarter GDP were -15.3 and -15.0, respectively. Also, the European Union will be posting its bi-monthly report for GDP, and expectations for the figure was at -11.2%. These data will hurt the single currency in the short-term. For the long-term outlook, the European region is expected to recover in Q3 and Q4.
Short
by Financebroker
EUR / TRY 7/6/2020Welcome to this analysis on Euro / Turkish Lira. EUR / TRY has been in a massive macro uptrend since 2019, It paused around the highs of the previous uptrend cycle of 2018 at 7.850. Since the 7th of May, the market has gone sideways, it had a pullback to 7.35, re accumulated there, and bounce back to the previous high. Looking at the structure, it looks like it has made a Symmetrical triangle pattern which can also be a handle of a Cup And Handle continuation patter if price closes above the previous high at 7.85. The target of the triangle is at 7.9 and the target of the Cup And Handle is around 8.25. The 2 levels of resistance above the current price are the previous high at 7.85 which used to be a daily close high of the 2018 cycle as well and above that the psychological 8 level which is also the wick highs of 2018 cycle. This trade idea has 2 rewards to risk if it hits the triangle's target and 5.5 R if it hits the target of the Cup And Handles. Good luck trading.
Long
by Trader_Shayan
2
EURTRY waiting for a trigger to sellon DAILY: EURTRY is still sitting around a strong supply zone and All-Time-High so we will be looking for objective sell setups on lower timeframes. on H1: EURTRY broke below our red trendline but we didn't sell yet, as we always wait for a momentum candle close below the last swing for extra confirmation. meanwhile, until the sell is activated, EURTRY would be overall bullish and can still test the upper supply zone before going down.
Short
by TheSignalyst