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EURUSD.P trade ideas

Eurusd Monthly possible escenarioI think that Eurusd made a strong expanding diagonal since 1970 to 2008. ( rare but not impossible ) This diagonal was made only of corrective waves. Then , 2008 crisis began. Eurusd start it's bearish trend as what it seems also a Diagonal, but this time contractive ( wave A ) It seems to me that we are in the pullback of a shoulder head shoulder created from 2015 to 2022, and we haven't broke Bollinger upper band yet. Volume also confirms the breakout and bearish divergence usual in waves 5. We haven't reach 61.8 % fibo yet, and we hace strong liquidity in that area. Is Eurusd ready to crash? Let's see....
Short
by Alecampos83
EUR/USD Crash????We can a clear downtrend forming with pairs like the euro and the pound that go against the dollar. The Euro has shown clear signs of bearish downfall through the vast number of bos to the downside and the vast amount of liquidity below that needs to be taken. In the first scenario we see the possibility that price may move up to fill the IMB taking out any early sellers before continuing in the downtrend targeting the EQL liquidity below. In the second scenario which I believe to be more likely, we see the Euro drop taking out the EQL liquidity before having enough momentum to retrace into 4H IMB or fill the IMB and push up towards the 6H supply and then crash at least until the bullish momentum on the dollar dies down and markets begin to form clean market structure rather than such euphoric price action
Short
by JamelCapital
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Lastly I would like to add this previous lecture to this post, I'm sure will be useful for you... The Psychology Of Trading How To Manage Your Emotions and.. The Benefits of Keeping a Trading Journal for Your Psychology ✅ Please share your thoughts about this article in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my post. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Education
by FOREXN1
1
#EURUSD - 08112024EURUSD made a perfect long as per plan given yesterday and it hit the price target, over a 100 pips higher, and it sold down 60 pips off the price target before recovering. Bearish sell down on Thursday followed by a recovery to my sell level yesterday. What's next? I see a possible move for EURUSD to 1.0733 and then we see the reaction off the level; either a higher low for a move higher or a break and a move lower (as per the plan given yesterday). In a way, the move yesterday could be seen as a pullback. And market did sell down after hitting the price target so IMO sellers are present and so could see a move lower first.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
EURUSD 10/11/24Last week’s shift in the EU bias changed our view from short to long. However, as we always say, high-impact fundamentals can move the market, sometimes in line with our bias and sometimes against it. In the case of the U.S. election, the result pushed prices lower. This happened because the USD gained significant strength when the new president was elected. Now, we're back to our more favorable sell bias. With the recent shift lower, the higher timeframe aligns with this bias again, allowing us to target last week’s lows. We have several points to watch for a bearish shift: the supply area in the middle of our current range and the two highs at the top of the range from Friday’s 4:00 AM move. If these highs are taken, we expect price to sell off and continue down to our target lows. There's a possibility of price moving up to the major high we’ve marked, but this is unlikely given our bearish bias. If this happens, we’ll still aim for the target low. A pullback would give us an even better position to sell into that low. As it stands, we have a relatively large fundamental range, so price may fluctuate within this range for some time. Follow your plan and stick to your risk!
by rosshayes
EUR/USD tumbles below 1.0800 on Trump’s tariff planThe EUR/USD pair has declined amid a renewed demand for the US Dollar (USD) during Friday's Asian trading session. Additionally, Donald Trump's proposed tax increases have put pressure on the Euro (EUR) against the USD. Traders are now awaiting the US November Michigan Consumer Sentiment data for further market direction, along with a speech by Federal Reserve official Michelle Bowman later this week. Looking at the technical chart, the EUR/USD pair is currently in a downtrend, trading around 1.0780, down 0.2%. With resistance at 1.080, the pair has faced difficulties and has dropped to the support level at 1.071. Given the current factors, there is a possibility that the EUR/USD pair could break this support level and continue moving lower. Investors need to closely monitor economic data and comments from the Fed to catch any new signals from the market.
by Alisa_Rokosz
EURUSD SHORT SETUP Smart Money Play for EURUSD The goal is to wait for a pullback to resistance within this bearish trend, then position for a continuation downwards. Here’s a structured approach: 1. Look for a Pullback to Resistance: • Since price is in a previous consolidation range, watch for a pullback to a level of resistance, possibly near the upper bounds of this range. For instance, look at levels like a daily moving average (20 or 50 SMA) or a high-volume node in the volume profile, which could act as strong resistance. • Use the 4-hour Ichimoku Conversion Line or Base Line as a short-term resistance level. If price approaches but stays below these levels, it may signal a solid area to enter short. 2. Volume Confirmation: • During the pullback, if volume remains low or the Chaikin Oscillator stays negative, it would signal that the buying pressure is weak, making a continuation downwards more likely. • Look for the CMF and ADL to remain bearish, as confirmation that the broader selling pressure is intact. 3. Wait for a Clear Reversal Signal on the Lower Timeframe (4-Hour or 1-Hour): • Use the 4-hour chart to refine your entry. Wait for the RSI to re-enter bearish territory and for MACD to regain momentum on the downside. • Alternatively, a bearish Supertrend signal or a breakdown below the 4-hour Ichimoku Conversion Line after a weak pullback can serve as an entry trigger. 4. Downside Targets: • Set initial targets at recent lows within the consolidation range, as well as potential Fibonacci extension levels for the swing down. • If the daily downtrend continues to accelerate, you may consider trailing stops to capture a larger movement as long as price remains below the daily Ichimoku cloud. Summary of Smart Money Play 1. Trend Bias: Stay with the trend (bearish). 2. Setup: Wait for a pullback to resistance within the bearish trend, ideally near a moving average or high-volume node. 3. Entry Trigger: Confirm selling pressure resumes on the 4-hour or 1-hour chart. 4. Risk Management: Use recent highs or a level above the resistance as a stop, and target lower lows, with the option to trail the stop as long as bearish indicators align.
Short
by Shivsaransh1
Is Further Downward Movement Expected in EUR/USD?The EUR/USD pair has recently broken a significant uptrend line and fallen below a crucial horizontal support level on the daily chart. This initial downward movement was triggered by Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election. His consistent emphasis on prioritising the local economy has led the market to anticipate protective policies aimed at reducing imports, thereby strengthening the Dollar against the Euro. From a technical perspective, current price action suggests increasing selling pressure, with the pair now approaching a critical support level at 1.0678. Below, we explore two potential scenarios for EUR/USD. Scenario 1: Retracement to the 1.0780 Region Followed by a Subsequent Decline Following the break of the uptrend line, the price may experience a pullback to retest the 1.0780 region, which is likely to act as resistance. This 1.0780 level coincides with a confluence zone formed by the prior trendline and the previously broken horizontal support level, making it a significant area of interest for sellers. Possible Sell Entry: If the price exhibits signs of rejection upon reaching 1.0780, this could present an attractive selling opportunity, with initial targets set at the 1.0678 support level and subsequently at the 1.0470 region, as indicated on the chart. Stop Loss : A protective stop loss could be placed slightly above 1.0830 to safeguard against a false breakout. Scenario 2: Break Below the 1.0678 Support Level The 1.0678 support level has been tested multiple times in recent sessions, rendering it a crucial point. A breach below this level would signify a potential continuation of the downward movement over the next few days. A daily close below 1.0678 could amplify the likelihood of a steeper decline, setting the stage for the next support level around 1.0470. Possible Short Entry: If the price breaks below 1.0678, a short entry could be initiated with initial targets at 1.0610, and a final target positioned at the strong support level of 1.0470, which has been significant since October 2023. Stop Loss : For this scenario, a stop loss could be positioned slightly above 1.0700 to avoid being affected by a false retest of the broken support. Donald Trump's victory has instigated a downward shift in the Euro's value against the Dollar, and this trend is likely to continue in the coming days. Given that EUR/USD is currently at a critical juncture, both outlined scenarios present viable trading opportunities, contingent upon price action in the forthcoming sessions. Careful monitoring of the 1.0678 and 1.0780 levels will be essential for determining the pair’s future direction and validating potential entry points. Disclaimer: 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK.
Short
by Marketscom
EUR/USD 8H SwingTrade: Institutions in Control Amid Deep RetraceThis long position on EUR/USD continues to develop as the trade approaches a critical zone near 1.09600, where partial profits will be taken if the market starts to move in the anticipated direction. The setup shows a potential for a reversal following a controlled decline, which may indicate institutional players hedging their positions. Despite the lack of a significant pullback, the steady decline suggests deeper market manipulation by larger participants, as they may be positioning themselves for a move upward. This swing trade is grounded in both technical and fundamental factors. While the euro has faced challenges due to economic slowdown in the Eurozone, the technicals are showing signs of alignment for a potential bullish reversal. If the market sentiment shifts, the euro could gain momentum, supported by upcoming key economic data and central bank statements. Technicals: • The price action shows a controlled decline with minimal volatility, indicating institutional hedging and the possibility of a corrective move. • Price is trading within the momentum cloud, signaling a neutral-to-bullish shift in sentiment. The next key level to watch is the 1.09600 area, where partial profit-taking is planned. • A full break above 1.10280 (next significant resistance) could fuel further bullish momentum, targeting higher levels at 1.1070 and beyond. • Stop loss is placed below 1.0740 to account for market volatility while keeping the risk-to-reward ratio balanced. Fundamentals: • Eurozone Outlook: With inflation persisting in the Eurozone, the European Central Bank (ECB) continues its cautious approach, maintaining tight monetary policy. However, the euro remains under pressure due to underwhelming growth figures, geopolitical risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and high inflation. • USD Strength: The USD remains strong amid solid US economic data, including robust housing starts and job growth. This strength has limited the euro’s ability to recover, but any weakening in the US data could help fuel a euro recovery. • Macro Events: Key macro events, including ECB President Lagarde’s upcoming speeches and US economic data releases, are likely to have an impact on this pair. Lagarde’s recent dovish tone, combined with any signs of weakening in the US economy, could catalyze a EUR/USD reversal. Risk Management: • Taking partial profits near the 1.09600 level minimizes downside risk while locking in gains if the trade moves favorably. • The stop loss remains tight to protect against any sudden reversals, placed below the recent low at 1.0740 to maintain an optimal risk-reward ratio. • By maintaining flexibility in managing the position, this setup aims to capture gains while protecting capital in volatile market conditions. This trade setup offers a promising opportunity as we monitor both the technical and fundamental aspects closely. Let’s stay focused and continue to manage the position based on market developments! Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Long
by AR33_
Early Short entry EURUSDNice confluance at 200 EMA and 1.8000 level, gave a worning to sell the EUR, H1 gave us a power close for early entries. At the end off day if we get a nice power close from the sellers, my confidance rating will justify a short on EURUSD. Technical analysis is only conformational step to these positions. A breif description of key factors behind this Position. Recent macroeconomic trends and central bank policies support a bearish outlook on EUR/USD, with fundamental factors converging to strengthen the USD while weakening the EUR. 1. Divergent Central Bank Policies 2. Growth and Inflation Differentials 3. Geopolitical Risks 4. Market Sentiment and Positioning **Conclusion**: The EUR/USD pair appears primed for a short position based on strong USD fundamentals against Euro weakness. This trade capitalizes on the economic and policy divergence between the U.S. and Eurozone and the USD’s safe-haven appeal amidst uncertain global conditions.
Short
by JureBrumen
1
EURUSD_116 2024.11.08 06:03:07 Trading Signal SELLFrankPro Signal for EURUSD_116 Type: Screen Signal: SELL TP: 1.07451 SL: 1.07901 Entry Price: 1.07826 Analysis for EURUSD Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST= Strong Down LT= Strong Up Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Down LT=Up ST=Down LT=Up ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(0) Based on the provided analysis, here are my conclusions for the EUR/USD pair: **Short-term (next few days):** * The price is expected to go down, with a potential test of the support area near 1.0685. * A break below 1.0704 could signal further declines to 1.0660 and 1.0645. * However, there is a possibility of a corrective advance, with a potential rebound from the lower border of the bearish channel and a rebound from the bullish trend line on the RSI. * The upside is capped by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0830, adding to the selling pressure. **Long-term (next few weeks/months):** * The overall trend is bearish, with the pair trading below a flat 100 Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a firmly bearish 20 SMA. * The ECB's cautious stance on monetary policy and weak German data suggest limited near-term support for the euro. * However, the analysis mentions a potential growth towards the area above 1.0925 following a rebound from the support area near 1.0685. * The impact of economic data and ECB policy on the pair's long-term trend is uncertain and will depend on future developments. In summary, the short-term outlook is bearish, with a potential test of the support area near 1.0685, while the long-term trend is also bearish, but with a possibility of a rebound and growth towards the area above 1.0925. Result: ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(1) Based on the analysis, here are my predictions for the EUR/USD pair: **Short-term (next few days/week):** The price is expected to **go down**. The technical outlook suggests further losses, with potential to revisit the June low of 1.0666 and possibly the 2024 low at 1.0600. The pair has broken below all its moving averages, and technical indicators are firmly bearish despite being in oversold territory. **Long-term (next quarter/12 months):** The price is expected to **stay the same** or **go up slightly**. Long-term forecasts indicate the EUR/USD could trade at 1.08 by the end of the quarter and around 1.06 in 12 months, according to Trading Economics' global macro models. This suggests that the current downward trend may be reversed in the long term, with the pair potentially rebounding from its current lows. Please note that these predictions are based on the analysis provided and are subject to change as new data and events become available. Result: ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(2) **Short-term Analysis (Next 24-48 hours)** Based on the current market conditions and forecasts, I expect the EUR/USD price to **go down** in the short term. The bearish momentum, as indicated by the technical analysis, suggests that the pair may continue to decline, potentially testing support levels around 1.0665 and 1.0645. The strong US dollar sentiment, weak Eurozone economic data, and the upcoming Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates (expected to include a 0.25% rate cut) may further contribute to the downward pressure on the euro. **Long-term Analysis (Next week and beyond)** In the long term, the outlook for the EUR/USD pair is more uncertain. While the current bearish momentum may persist in the near term, there are potential upside risks that could lead to a rebound. If the pair holds above key support levels, some forecasts suggest a potential upward movement above 1.0925. Additionally, the impact of the US presidential election and the subsequent policy decisions may lead to a shift in market sentiment, potentially benefiting the euro. Therefore, in the long term, I expect the EUR/USD price to **stay the same** or potentially **go up**, depending on the outcome of the upcoming events and the overall market sentiment. Please note that these analyses are based on the available data and forecasts, and the actual market movements may differ. Result: ST=Down LT=Up
Short
by orbborisson
Trade 1: EUR/USD - SL HitThings that might went wrong technically: 1. The trade was entered when shorter EMA crossed under with longer EMA in 15min time frame, so the possible early entry and TP was compromised to intraday. EMA cross under was 15% early that the 15min EMA cross under, where the 5min time frame: - EMA crossed under after taking resistance in the range - Pulled back and took support of the EMA cross price level 2. Anticipated a larger move of 0.43%. However the maximum price moved was 14% from entry. If entered at pullback of EMA cross under, the potential TP would have been 28% maximum. Also the price took support at Medium HMA in 15min time frame. 3. While the trade touched SL exit; there was EMA cross over in 5min time frame. However, the SL was not touched, that might be because the medium HMA was still over shorter HMA, and the EMA crosses under again before shorter HMA crossed over medium HMA. However, in the 2nd EMA cross over, the HMA also crossed over and the price hit SL. Possible profit booking could have been: - breakeven - HMA crossed over - EMA cross over in 15min Time Frame
by MyWayofLookingThings
Massive short by Market Makers suggest price will...go lower to 1.072 - 1.07 zone. I would consider only shorts for next week. But !! Be carefull because elections and FOMC can make some spikes and wipe outs. If we get the confirmation, I will be looking to position myself with my students and followers as highlighted on the chart. Accumulation / Manipulation / Distribution - No liquidity raid = No trade - Never buy high and never sell low “Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.” Dave FX Hunter ⚔
by Dave-Hunter
12