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EURUSD trade ideas

Bigger correction up for EUHi traders, Last week EU made a bigger (complex) correction up. I think the correction hasn't finished until it reaches the 38.2 fib retracement. So for next week we could see some more upside into the Daily FVG above and from there a drop lower. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for price come into the Daily FVG above and trade (short term) shorts after the finish of a correction up on a lower timeframe. If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a like and respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! Eduwave
Short
by EduwaveTrading
EUR/USD Daily AnalysisThe EUR/USD currency pair appears to be consolidating within a large, slightly narrowing symmetrical triangle pattern that has been forming over the past year. Key observations: 1.Support and Resistance: The pair recently tested support near the lower boundary of the triangle (around the 1.0700 area), which aligns with a long-term uptrend line, creating a potential zone of support. Resistance is seen at the upper boundary of the triangle, currently around the 1.1200 level, marking an area to watch for potential breakout attempts. 2.Volume Profile: The Volume Profile visible range highlights significant buying and selling interest around the 1.0799 to 1.0903 levels, suggesting this zone could act as a magnet for price action in the near term. 3.Key Levels: A break above the 1.0903 level could lead to a test of the next resistance at 1.1056. On the downside, if the pair falls below the recent swing low near 1.0700, it may open up further downside potential toward lower support zones around 1.0500. 4.Indicators: RSI is currently rebounding from oversold levels, indicating some bullish momentum in the short term. However, watch for a shift if RSI approaches the overbought territory. 5.Price Action: The recent bounce from support with increased volume may indicate renewed buying interest, but a breakout beyond the triangle boundaries will likely provide a clearer direction. This setup suggests that EUR/USD may see increased volatility as it approaches the apex of the triangle. Outlook: T raders should be cautious and watch for a confirmed breakout beyond the triangle's boundaries for clearer directional cues. Bulls will look for a breakout above 1.0903 to target higher levels, while bears may aim for support zones below 1.0700 in case of a downside break.
by AngshumanSaikia
Euro falls as Trump's chances of victory increaseLooking at the trend in the 1-hour time frame, EUR/USD has broken the support area of ​​the first ascending channel to the bottom and now it is below the moving averages of the ALIIGATOR indicator, there is a possibility of further price declines. In general, the scenario is reinforced that EUR/USD can decline to the support of the bottom of the second ascending channel in the range of $1.0799, provided that the resistance range of 1.0864-1.0859 is maintained.
Short
by arongroups
Recognize the problems that you have..Trading is a complex venture that involves understanding financial instruments, charts, patterns, market conditions, risk management and other factors. Becoming a successful trader requires more than technical knowledge. You also need to develop the right mindset to navigate the psychological intricacies of trading. Human emotion, instinct, and behavior can profoundly impact your decision-making process. That’s why it’s important to understand trading psychology. ~ OGwavetrader
Education
by OGwavetrader
How to avoid being emotional in trading?Avoiding emotional trading is a key skill in successful investing and trading, as it helps minimize impulsive decisions that can lead to losses. Here are some strategies and insights to help maintain a disciplined approach to trading and avoid being swayed by emotions like fear, greed, or overconfidence: 🔸 Create and Stick to a Trading Plan ▪️Set Clear Goals: Define your profit goals, risk tolerance, and entry/exit points in advance. ▪️Follow Predefined Rules: A trading plan provides structure, guiding you to make logical decisions rather than impulsive ones. ▪️Limit Exposure: Decide on position sizes beforehand to avoid overcommitting and feeling compelled to make irrational moves if markets turn volatile. 🔸 Use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit Orders ▪️Automate Exit Points: Setting up stop-loss and take-profit orders allows you to exit trades at predefined points, limiting the need to make quick, emotion-driven decisions during market fluctuations. ▪️Reduce Monitoring: Knowing your trades will automatically exit at specific points reduces the need for constant checking, which can often lead to stress and emotional reactivity. 🔸 Practice Patience and Avoid Overtrading ▪️Avoid Excessive Monitoring: Watching the market closely can lead to impulsive reactions to small fluctuations. Stick to reviewing your trades periodically rather than minute-by-minute. ▪️Limit Trade Frequency: Overtrading, driven by the need to “make back” losses or maximize gains, often leads to poorly thought-out decisions. Trade only when your trading plan calls for it. 🔸 Develop a Balanced Mindset ▪️Stay Neutral to Wins and Losses: Emotional attachment to individual trades can make it harder to accept losses and lead to revenge trading, where you try to make up losses through risky moves. ▪️Accept Losses as Part of the Process: Even the best traders face losses. Accepting this and moving on helps maintain perspective and discipline, which are essential for long-term success. 🔸 Utilize Data and Analysis Over Intuition ▪️Focus on Objective Indicators: Base decisions on data, such as price charts, moving averages, and technical indicators, rather than “gut feelings.” ▪️Avoid Confirmation Bias: Seeking only information that supports your existing beliefs can lead to one-sided and often poor decisions. Stay open to all relevant information. 🔸 Take Breaks and Manage Stress ▪️Step Away After a Major Loss or Win: Strong emotional responses often follow big losses or gains. Taking a break gives you time to reset your mindset before your next trade. ▪️Practice Relaxation Techniques: Techniques like deep breathing, meditation, or even short exercises can reduce stress and improve focus, reducing emotional reactions. 🔸 Build Self-Awareness ▪️Reflect on Your Emotions: Keeping a trading journal can help you understand emotional triggers and patterns in your decision-making. ▪️Work with a Trading Coach or Join a Community: Having accountability, whether through a mentor or a trading group, can help you stay grounded and receive objective feedback on your trading behavior. 🔸 Set Realistic Expectations ▪️Don’t Chase Unrealistic Returns: Expecting massive returns can lead to risky, emotion-fueled decisions. Focus on sustainable, gradual growth. ▪️Acknowledge Market Unpredictability: Markets are often unpredictable, and not every trade will go as planned. Accepting this helps lower emotional stakes with each trade. 🔸 Consider Using Algorithmic or Automated Trading ▪️Remove Emotion from Execution: Algorithmic trading allows traders to set parameters and let algorithms execute trades, effectively reducing emotional interference. ▪️Define Rules for Entry and Exit: Predefined rules, when followed strictly by algorithms, allow for a structured and emotion-free approach to trading. Adopting these practices helps build discipline, patience, and resilience, which are essential for minimizing the negative impact of emotional trading on your overall financial success.
Education
by ProjectSyndicate
25
Intra-Day Strategies: Part 1 – Mean ReversionWelcome to a three-part series on intra-day trading, a focused and fast-paced trading approach that, when executed with precision, can sharpen your trading skills and deepen your market understanding. We’re starting with mean reversion, a method centred on spotting price overextensions and profiting from quick corrections. What is Intra-Day Trading? Intra-day trading involves capturing small, rapid price movements through a series of trades opened and closed within the same day. Unlike swing traders or position traders who wait for larger price moves, intra-day traders zoom in on micro-movements around key levels in the market. They capitalize on the cyclical nature of price volatility, harnessing expansion phases that follow periods of contraction. While this style can be rewarding, it demands quick decision-making, refined technical skills, and strict risk management. It offers the chance to gain valuable experience and refine trading accuracy through regular practice. Pros and Cons of Intra-Day Trading Before diving into the mean reversion strategy, it’s helpful to consider some unique aspects of intra-day trading. Pros: Intra-day trading offers frequent trading opportunities, especially in volatile markets, providing the potential for steady profits. It also allows traders to refine their skills in real-time, building expertise at a faster pace than longer-term strategies. Cons: This style requires intense focus and continuous monitoring, which can be mentally demanding. The frequency of trades can also increase transaction costs, which may impact profitability if trades aren’t carefully planned. Mean Reversion Strategy The Elastic Band Effect Think of mean reversion like an elastic band. When a price is pushed too far from its “normal” level—perhaps by a sudden burst of buying or selling—the band stretches. Eventually, that tension snaps back, pulling the price toward its mean. Mean reversion traders aim to capture this snapback, profiting from the return to the average. The key is to spot when the band is overstretched and position yourself to capture the correction. Spotting Mean Reversion Setups on the Chart In mean reversion, timing and precision are essential. Here’s a three-step approach to identifying setups for this strategy: Level Identification: Start by identifying a clear support or resistance level, like the previous day’s high or low. The more timeframes that confirm this level, the stronger the opportunity for an intra-day trade. Such levels attract price reactions, especially when volatility is high. RSI Divergence: Use the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to spot divergences at overbought or oversold levels. If the price is pushing toward a key level while RSI diverges from the trend, this signals that the “elastic band” is overstretched. For example, if price reaches a strong resistance while RSI diverges downward, a pullback is likely. Candlestick Patterns: When levels and RSI align, watch for candlestick patterns as entry signals. Key patterns include: • Fakeout: When price briefly pierces a level before reversing, signalling that the trend might stall or reverse. • Engulfing Pattern: A strong reversal sign where a candle “engulfs” the prior one, indicating momentum has shifted. • Double Top/Bottom: A pattern where price hits a level twice before reversing, suggesting resistance or support is holding firm. Combining these three elements creates a high-probability setup, allowing traders to capitalize on short-term corrections effectively. Example: EUR/USD In this example, we’re using the 5-minute chart for clarity, though trades can be executed on lower timeframes, depending on market conditions. The first entry setup (labeled Fakeout 1) forms as the market tests the prior day’s high, with RSI divergence indicating a possible snapback. A second opportunity (Fakeout 2) appears on a retest, where both the price pattern and RSI continue to align for a high-confidence entry. EUR/USD 5min Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Stop Placement and Trade Management Intra-day traders must pay careful attention to stop placement and management, as short-term moves can quickly go against you. In a mean reversion setup, stops are generally placed just beyond the key level identified in step one. For example, if entering at resistance, place a stop just above that level to protect against a breakout. For trade management, keep these principles in mind: • Initial Target: Aiming for a 1:1 or 1:1.5 risk-to-reward ratio potentially allows for more frequent profit-taking, which can build up over time. • Trailing Stops: As price moves in your favour, a trailing stop helps secure gains. This allows you to capture more profit while staying protected against a reversal. • Exit Triggers: Be prepared to exit if the price quickly re-approaches your entry level or if RSI and candlestick patterns begin to weaken. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Education
by Capitalcom
What Is a Falling Knife in Trading? What Is a Falling Knife in Trading? It’s often repeated that traders should ‘never catch a falling knife.’ This phrase highlights the risks of buying into a rapidly declining asset. Understanding what a falling knife is, its causes, and strategies for trading it may help traders navigate these sharp declines more effectively. This article delves into the intricacies of falling knives and offers insights on how to approach them with caution. Understanding the Falling Knife Pattern A falling knife consists of candlesticks that depict a significant rapid drop in an asset’s price, including stocks, commodities, forex pairs, indices, cryptocurrencies*, and more. This situation is often driven by negative news, poor earnings reports, or broader market sell-offs. Identifying a falling knife involves recognising several key characteristics. Firstly, the decline is steep and sudden, typically marked by large red candlesticks on a price chart. The volume often increases as the price falls, indicating panic selling. Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) might show oversold conditions, suggesting the asset is undervalued in the short term. Common tools used to identify falling knives include: - Moving Averages: When short-term moving averages cross below long-term moving averages, it signals bearish market sentiment. - Bollinger Bands: Prices breaking below the lower band can indicate a falling knife. - Volume Analysis: Spikes in trading volume often accompany these sharp declines, confirming the intensity of the sell-off. In terms of candlesticks, a falling knife typically produces several bearish candles with long bodies and small wicks. They may appear as a large engulfing candle on a higher timeframe. Recognising these patterns is crucial for traders. Misinterpreting a falling knife can lead to significant losses, as attempting to catch a falling knife—buying during the steep decline—without proper analysis can be risky. Instead, many traders wait for signs of stabilisation or reversal before considering an entry point. Causes of Falling Knives A falling knife generally occurs due to several specific catalysts, each capable of triggering a rapid and substantial decline in an asset's price. Understanding these causes, including technical factors, is essential for traders aiming to navigate such volatile situations effectively. Economic Events and News Releases One primary cause of falling knives is significant economic news. For instance, announcements of interest rate hikes by central banks can lead to widespread stock market sell-offs. Similarly, unexpected changes in economic indicators like unemployment rates, inflation, or GDP growth can trigger sharp declines. Traders react swiftly to such news, often leading to panic selling and steep price drops. Earnings Reports and Company-Specific Issues A falling knife stock pattern can be triggered by poor earnings reports or disappointing financial results from a company. When a company misses earnings expectations or issues negative guidance, investors may lose confidence, resulting in a rapidly falling stock. Additionally, company-specific problems such as legal issues, management scandals, or product recalls can lead to rapid price declines as investors reassess the company's prospects. Broader Market Conditions and Trends Broader market trends and conditions play a significant role in causing a falling knife in stocks and other assets. During periods of market volatility or bear markets, negative sentiment can spread quickly, leading to sharp declines in asset prices. For example, during the financial crisis of 2008, widespread fear and uncertainty led to massive sell-offs across various sectors. Similarly, market corrections or crashes can create environments where falling knife patterns are more likely to occur. Geopolitical Events Geopolitical events such as wars, political instability, or trade tensions can cause abrupt market reactions. For instance, escalating trade disputes between major economies can lead to uncertainty and fear, causing investors and traders to exit positions rapidly. Technical Factors Technical analysis also plays a crucial role in falling knife patterns. Key technical factors include: - Breaking Support Levels: When an asset's price falls below critical support levels, it can trigger further selling as traders perceive a lack of price stability. - Overbought/Oversold Conditions: Oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showing overbought conditions can precede a falling knife as prices correct sharply. At the same time, the RSI may enter the oversold area during the falling knife pattern. - Bearish Chart Patterns: Patterns such as head and shoulders, double tops, or descending triangles can signal potential sharp declines, leading to falling knife scenarios. Risks Associated with Falling Knife Trading falling knives carries significant risks, primarily due to the rapid nature of the price declines. Understanding these risks is crucial for traders aiming to navigate such volatile situations. Potential for Significant Losses The most apparent risk is the potential for substantial financial losses. When an asset's price plummets, catching the falling knife can result in buying at prices that continue to drop, leading to immediate and severe losses. False Bottoms and Dead Cat Bounces Traders may mistakenly interpret temporary price stabilisations or minor recoveries as the end of the decline, only to face further drops. These false bottoms and dead cat bounces can trap traders in losing positions. Increased Volatility Falling knives are often accompanied by heightened market volatility, making it challenging to analyse short-term price movements. This volatility can result in rapid and unexpected changes in asset prices, complicating risk management. Psychological Challenges The psychological impact of trading falling knives should not be underestimated. The stress and emotional strain of dealing with sharp losses can lead to irrational decision-making, such as holding onto losing positions for too long or making impulsive trades. Technical Analysis Limitations While technical indicators can help identify potential entry points, they are not foolproof. The rapid and severe nature of falling knives can render technical analysis less reliable, as price movements may not follow traditional patterns. Liquidity Issues During sharp declines, liquidity can dry up, leading to wider spreads and slippage. This makes it harder to execute trades at desired prices, potentially exacerbating losses. Examples of Falling Knife Events Now, let’s take a look at a couple of falling knife examples. To start identifying your own falling knives, head over to FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform to explore real-time charts across different asset classes. Onset of the Coronavirus Pandemic and the Nasdaq 100 In early 2020, the onset of the coronavirus pandemic triggered a dramatic fall in global financial markets. The Nasdaq 100, heavily weighted with speculative tech stocks, experienced a sharp decline as investors reacted to the uncertainty and potential economic impact of the pandemic. From mid-February to late March 2020, the Nasdaq 100 dropped by over 30%. This steep decline represented a classic falling knife pattern, characterised by rapid sell-offs and increased market volatility over the course of several weeks. Traders who attempted to buy into the market too early faced significant losses as the market continued to fall before eventually stabilising and recovering later in the year. EUR/USD After Strong US Inflation Data On April 10, 2024, the release of March US inflation data led to a falling knife event in the EUR/USD currency pair. Traders had been closely monitoring the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, anticipating that a lower-than-forecast reading would prompt the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates later in the year. The forecast was set at 3.4%, with a lower or at-forecast figure expected to weaken the dollar. Instead, the headline CPI YoY reading came in exactly at 3.5%, defying expectations. This unexpected data triggered a rally in the dollar and a sharp sell-off in EUR/USD. The pair plummeted rapidly, and the decline persisted until the end of the trading week, illustrating how sudden economic data releases can lead to sharp and sustained price drops. Strategies for Trading Falling Knives Understanding the catalyst behind a falling knife is crucial for determining whether it’s likely to rebound soon or persist as a trend. Events that cause fundamental repricing, such as poor earnings data, significant or unexpected news/economic releases, or unique risk events like currency intervention or financial crises, often lead to prolonged falling knives. In contrast, temporary sharp corrections might be due to overreactions to already priced-in news or transient market fears. Recognising these catalysts helps traders decide whether to take a position or wait for volatility to subside. Additionally, the timeframe of the falling knife provides valuable context. A falling knife on a 5-minute chart could indicate a sharp intraday decline, potentially recovering before the trading day ends. Conversely, on a 4-hour or daily chart, a sharp decline may suggest a continued downtrend over several days or weeks. Traders can use this information to look for short opportunities on lower timeframes or prepare for longer-term moves. Common Strategies Traders Use The insights gained from analysing market conditions can help traders to decide whether to short the falling knife or stay out of the market and wait for a bottom. Shorting the Falling Knife Traders looking to short a falling knife should exercise caution. Increased volatility during sharp declines can make it difficult to set appropriate stop-loss levels without a sub-par risk/reward ratio. The best entry can potentially be found during a pullback. As some traders think the price is bottoming out, their stop losses being triggered as the price continues to decline can fuel another leg lower. Traders can look for breakouts from bearish chart patterns like rising wedges, bear flags, or bear pennants. Alternatively, waiting for the bullish structure of the pullback (higher highs and higher lows) to break down into a lower low and lower high can indicate the next leg lower is underway. This approach offers traders confirmation that the knife is continuing to fall and an appropriate place to set a stop loss above the pullback’s high. Buying After a Falling Knife For those looking to catch the bottom, confirmation is essential. Using a pair of moving averages, such as 20-period and 50-period EMAs, can help. When the 20-period EMA crosses above the 50-period EMA, and the price closes above both, it suggests the downtrend might be over. However, momentum indicators like RSI and MACD can falsely signal market turns during steep declines, but they may have some value on higher timeframes. Generally speaking, one of the potentially effective strategies for catching a falling knife is to wait for the price to break above the previous lower high of the downtrend. This would demonstrate that the market has been able to break above a point at which it previously found resistance, allowing traders to potentially switch their bias to bullish and seek entry points. The Role of Patience and Discipline in Trading Falling Knives Patience and discipline are paramount when trading falling knives. Impulsive trades driven by the fear of missing out can lead to significant losses. Traders are required to wait for clear signs of trend reversal or continuation before entering a trade. This involves adhering to predefined strategies and not deviating due to emotional reactions to volatile market movements. Likewise, maintaining discipline in setting and following stop-loss levels, adhering to risk management principles, and avoiding premature entries can potentially enhance trading effectiveness. The Bottom Line Navigating falling knives requires careful analysis and disciplined trading strategies. By understanding the causes and employing effective techniques, traders can potentially better manage these volatile situations. To explore these strategies further and enhance your trading skills, consider opening an FXOpen account. With the right tools and knowledge, you can approach falling knives with greater confidence and precision. FAQ What Is a Falling Knife in Trading? A falling knife in trading refers to a rapid and significant decline in an asset's price, often triggered by negative news, poor earnings reports, or broader market sell-offs. This sharp drop can be volatile and difficult to analyse, making it challenging for traders to time their entries and exits. Should You Ever Try to Catch a Falling Knife? Catching a falling knife is highly risky. Therefore, the theory states it’s not recommended for most traders. The rapid decline in price can continue further than anticipated, leading to significant losses. To minimise risk, traders wait for signs of stabilisation or reversal before considering an entry. How to Catch a Falling Knife? Catching a falling knife involves identifying potential reversal points through technical analysis. Traders often wait for confirmation, such as a break above previous resistance levels or a moving average crossover. Patience and strict risk management, including setting tight stop-loss orders, are essential when attempting this strategy. What Is a Falling Knife in Crypto*? In the crypto* market, a falling knife refers to a sudden and steep decline in the price of a cryptocurrency*. This can be triggered by regulatory news, security breaches, or market sentiment shifts. Due to cryptocurrencies*' high volatility, falling knives can be particularly severe and difficult to analyse. *At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rule. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Editors' picks
Education
by FXOpen
7
Could this be the EURUSD bullish move to rebalance price? As we've seen TVC:DXY rallying upwards after serious economic struggle I'm seeing price needs to rebalance. The TVC:US10Y is also showing me signs of price rebalancing reinforcing this idea. Price could potentially continue higher than the 1.09500 Mark depending on how the election goes and other economic factors but just to be safe I'm looking to hit that price and close most of my bullish positions if not all. I'm hoping to see the inverse happen on OANDA:EURUSD as the past 4 days we've been sitting around the 1.07700 price range. This has come after a steep drop just after liquidating previous highs so a reversal is looking promising to me. Something to bear in mind is OTE of the range from the 16th of April to the 25th of September of this year; Price has entered this area and is currently bouncing in and out of said area. Though this is very promising DXY could still rally higher coming towards the election day and send EURUSD bearish. Happy trading :)
Long
by lewulb
4
Eurusd Monthly possible escenarioI think that Eurusd made a strong expanding diagonal since 1970 to 2008. ( rare but not impossible ) This diagonal was made only of corrective waves. Then , 2008 crisis began. Eurusd start it's bearish trend as what it seems also a Diagonal, but this time contractive ( wave A ) It seems to me that we are in the pullback of a shoulder head shoulder created from 2015 to 2022, and we haven't broke Bollinger upper band yet. Volume also confirms the breakout and bearish divergence usual in waves 5. We haven't reach 61.8 % fibo yet, and we hace strong liquidity in that area. Is Eurusd ready to crash? Let's see....
Short
by Alecampos83
Dollar Weakens Amid Tight U.S. Election Race and rate cuts Dollar Weakens Amid Tight U.S. Election Race and Upcoming Fed Decision The U.S. dollar dropped as the latest polls indicate no clear leader in the presidential race, reducing bets on a Trump victory. Treasury futures rose, reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid the uncertainty. Citigroup strategists suggest that a Trump victory could see the dollar rally by 3%, while a Harris victory could result in a 2% decline. This highlights the significant impact the election outcome could have on the USD. Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to announce a 25-basis point rate cut, adding to market volatility already heightened by the election. Traders are keeping a close eye on early results from swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania for insights into the potential election outcome and its implications for the financial markets. Source: Information derived from Bloomberg
by Eleazarahmath