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EURUSD trade ideas

EUR/USD – Bullish Wave 3 in Play | AO Convergence + Fib Target PPair: EUR/USD Timeframe: 15-Minute Date: May 15, 2025 🧠 Technical Breakdown: This analysis focuses on a clean impulsive Elliott Wave structure, Fibonacci projections, and Awesome Oscillator (AO) confirmation to support a bullish continuation. 🔍 Wave Count: Wave 1: Clear impulsive push upwards, breaking previous market structure. Wave 2: Completed corrective pullback into the key support zone, respecting the golden ratio levels. Wave 3: Initiated after a dominant break above the minor structure and trendline resistance, confirming bullish momentum. ⚙️ AO (Awesome Oscillator) Confirmation: Strong AO divergence between the Wave 1 and Wave 2 low confirms the bullish structure. Within the early stage of Wave 3, the AO shows a convergence pattern forming between subwaves 1, 2, and 3 — indicating strengthening bullish momentum. AO flipped green again after a minor pullback, signaling bullish continuation potential. 🎯 Fibonacci Extensions: TP1 Zone: 1.618 – 1.88 Fibonacci extension range → 1.1216 – 1.1226 (High probability for Wave 3 termination) TP2 Zone: 2.618 – 2.88 Fibonacci extension range → 1.1241 – 1.1258 (Extended target if bullish momentum accelerates) Further projections (Wave 5 estimate): 4.236 – 4.618 → 1.1276 – 1.1288 🧱 Key Structural Zone: 1.11813 is the most critical support-turned-resistance (SNR) level — price broke above this level, retested, and bounced. The green highlighted box marks the ideal buy zone, aligned with: Dominant break confirmation Fibonacci confluence Bullish AO setup ✅ Trade Plan: Entry: On retest or bounce from the green zone Stop Loss: Below 1.11800 or below Wave 2 low (to protect structure) Take Profit 1: 1.1216 – 1.1226 Take Profit 2: 1.1241 – 1.1258 Optional TP3 (extended): 1.1276 – 1.1288 (Wave 5 projection) 🧭 Summary: This setup combines Elliott Wave theory, Fibonacci projections, and AO convergence to provide a highly probable bullish continuation scenario. Ideal for breakout traders and structure-based wave analysts. 📌 “Confluence is key. Let structure, momentum, and fibs guide the trade.” #EURUSD #ElliottWave #Wave3 #AOIndicator #ForexAnalysis #Fibonacci #PriceAction #FXTrading #StructureBreak #TechnicalAnalysis
Long
by AwesomeOscDad
EURUSD Selloff Hits Key Support — Hold or Fail?Following Bessent’s announcement on China, EURUSD extended its decline into this week. Now, the long-term trendline that began in 2008 is being retested. Downward pressure remains high, and the retreat may continue today. However, the former supply zone at 1.1050–1.11 could provide significant support, especially with the help of the long-term trendline. Bessent stated that for 90 days, U.S. tariffs on China will be reduced from 145% to 30%, and China will lower tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%. While the market had expected some positive developments, this move went far beyond those expectations. As a result, momentum currently favors EURUSD bears. If the support zone fails, bearish momentum could accelerate, targeting the 1.07 area in the coming weeks. However, as long as the support holds, bears should proceed with caution.
by ftdsystem
4
EURUSD: US inflation on scheduleThe most important event during the previous week was the FOMC meeting. The Fed left interest rates unchanged, as was expected. In an after-the-meeting statement, the FOMC members noted that they will stay committed to their dual mandate, bringing inflation toward targeted 2% and maximum employment. Still, considering ongoing challenges for the economy, especially those related to trade tariffs, the Fed Chair Powell noted that the Fed will be ready to act immediately if threats to the economy emerge in the future period. As for macro data published during the week, the US ISM Services PMI was standing at 51,6 in April, above market consensus of 50,6. The Balance of Trade reached $-140,5B, which represents a higher deficit from forecasted $-137B. The Factory Orders in Germany were higher by 3,6% in March, beating market expectations at 1,3%. The HCOB Construction PMI in April in the Euro Zone reached the level of 46, while the same indicator for Germany was at the level of 45,1. The Retail Sales in the Euro Zone in March dropped by -0,1% for the month, reaching a 1,5% increase on a yearly basis. The Balance of Trade in Germany reached euro 21,1B in March, higher from forecasted euro 20,8B. The Industrial Production in Germany in March was higher by 3% for the month, significantly above market expectation of 0,5%. As expected, the FOMC meeting caused higher volatility on financial markets. Currently, the most sensitive topics are related to further decrease of the US interest rates and potential negative impact of trade tariffs on the US economy. Since Fed Chair Powell brought some confidence to market participants that the Fed is ready to react in case of worsening economic conditions, the US Dollar gained in strength. The eurusd currency pair started the week around the level of 1,1370 and moved to the downside for the rest of the week, ending it at 1,1248. The RSI started its stronger move toward the level of 50, indicating the potential that the market will soon look at the oversold market side. The MA50 continues to strongly diverge from MA200, confirming further the cross occurred some time ago. The US April inflation figures are scheduled for a release on Tuesday next week. Depending on figures, there is some probability of higher market volatility. The support line at 1,12 has been shortly tested during the previous week. The start of the week ahead might bring some further testing of this level. In case that this level is broken to the downside, then the next supporting level will be at 1,11, but this is not a significant level, on a historical scale of eurusd movements. There is also an equal probability that the market will shortly revert to the upside, when 1,13 might be tested for one more time. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for May for the Euro Zone and Germany, Inflation Rate in Germany, final for April, Industrial Production in the EuroZone, GDP Growth Rate Q/Q, second estimate for Q1, USD: Inflation Rate in April, Producers Price Index in April, Industrial Production in April, Building Permits preliminary for April, Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for May
by XBTFX
Has the EUR/USD Uptrend Ended?After trending upward since early 2025 on a weaker dollar, EUR/USD saw a notable pullback this week. For the first time, we can technically say that the uptrend has ended. But what are the reasons? The price dropped below the 1.12640 level, which represents the most recent higher low recorded by the market, and closed the day below it, forming a new low. This signal on the daily timeframe is negative and indicates a trend reversal from bullish to bearish. The 1.14931 level represents potential selling pressure, from which the price may decline after testing it, targeting the 1.12860 level. As for the 1.15734 level, it is considered an important resistance line that keeps the bearish scenario valid. However, if the price rises and records a daily close above it, this would indicate a return to the bullish trend and the failure of the bearish scenario.
by CFI
SELL!! BUT DON'T SHORT WITHOUT REASON EURUSD FORECAST Q2 W21 Y25EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W21 Y25 SELL!!!! BUT DON'T SHORT WITHOUT REASON! EURUSD IS READY TO TAKE YOUR ACCOUNT. THERE IS A WRAFT OF KEY LEVELS TO POTENTIALLY SHORT FROM. I KNOW. I HAVE INDEED IDENTIFIED THEM HOWEVER ... let's not KILL out accounts !!!!! lets be sure when to pull the trigger on shorts!!!! I'll be honest, I foresee a reaction from every point of interest BUT, dependant on YOUR entry model, depends if you can get Breakeven faster than the rest or even to take profit. SELL IS THE PLAY BUT BE SMART... EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W20 D15 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Weekly order block rejection ✅HTF Bearish price action ✅Intraday 15' order blocks ✅Tokyo ranges to be filled 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
Bearish drop?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 1.1281 1st Support: 1.1051 1st Resistance: 1.1424 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
History repeats itselfOANDA:EURUSD Here’s a technical analysis of the higher timeframes, specifically the monthly chart for EUR/USD. As clearly visible, price action is currently moving within a respected descending channel. The saying "history repeats itself" seems particularly relevant here, especially in the context of Trump’s presidency. While this topic has been discussed frequently, I wanted to highlight the striking similarities once again. The current market cycle closely mirrors the previous one from 2016-2017 — in terms of structure, timing, and volume. At present, we appear to be in the distribution phase, which is far from complete. It’s quite plausible that we may see further downside before another significant move to the upside begins. If we take the 2017 distribution phase as a reference (lasting approximately 300 days), the current phase has only been unfolding for around 80-100 days. Of course, there is no guarantee that price will rise again — but I consider it very likely that this market cycle has not yet fully played out. Technical analysis on higher timeframes often provides stronger probabilities and a clearer picture of the overall trend. On the right-hand side of the chart, I’ve marked a weekly imbalance (not directly visible on the monthly chart), which aligns with the 50% retracement level of the Fibonacci tool. I view this confluence as a strong potential entry for a swing trade targeting the upper boundary of the descending channel. This outlines my current trading outlook.
by Crispp
Euro H4 | Overlap resistance at 38.2% Fibonacci retracementThe Euro (EUR/USD) is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower. Sell entry is at 1.1263 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 1.1395 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and a multi-swing-high resistance. Take profit is at 1.1081 which is an overlap support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
EURUSD - ANALYSIS👀 Observation: Hello, everyone! I hope you're doing well. I’d like to share my analysis of EUR-USD with you. Looking at the chart, if EUR-USD breaks above 1.12930 on the 1-hour time frame, I expect the price to move up to 1.15244. During this upward movement, I anticipate a pullback at 1.13805, with the price possibly retracing down to 1.12000. After this, I expect the price to continue its move upwards towards 1.15244. 📉 Expectation: Bullish Scenario: Price to move up to 1.15244 after breaking above 1.12930. Pullback Expected: A possible pullback to 1.12000 after reaching 1.13805 before the price continues upwards to 1.15244. 💡 Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: 1.15244 Support: 1.12000 💬 What are your thoughts on EUR-USD this week? Let me know in the comments! Trade safe
Long
by PouyanTradeFX
1
Rate Cut Hopes Fuel Rally - Long SetupThe asset is approaching a former support level, which now acts as resistance. If it breaks above, I expect a move toward previous highs. The trading session started with strong momentum, fueled by dovish commentary suggesting potential interest rate cuts . The uptrend remains intact — bears failed to break below the 50-day moving average , and the bulls have regained control. As long as this holds, I’ll continue playing the long side. 📝Trading Plan: Long from the 1.13 level, targeting 1.1490, with a stop placed below today’s candle low. I’m watching for increased activity in this currency pair and will act according to my trading plan.
Long
by kventinka
EUR/USD: Pro-Level ICT & SMC Analysis!PEPPERSTONE:EURUSD EUR/USD: Pro-Level ICT & SMC Analysis! Analysis: Price Action Strategy The market structure reveals breaks of structure (BOS) and change of character (ChOCH), indicating key trend shifts. Price is currently hovering near Fibonacci 0.618 retracement (1.12095332), a strong reversal point. The RSI (47.68) suggests a neutral zone—neither overbought nor oversold. Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Strategy BOS and ChOCH confirm liquidity shifts, highlighting institutional involvement. Fair Value Gap (FVG) around 1.12411364 could act as a strong resistance zone. Volume bars show increased activity near these structural points, reinforcing the idea of smart money accumulation. ICT (Inner Circle Trader) Strategy The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement (1.12095332) is a crucial level for a possible reversal. MACD is showing signs of a bearish crossover, indicating downward momentum. Liquidity zones align closely with previous volume spikes, supporting a potential price reaction. Buy and Sell Strategies Buy Strategy: Look for a break above 1.12095332 with confirmation from RSI moving above 50 and MACD flipping bullish. Sell Strategy: A strong rejection at FVG near 1.12411364 could indicate a sell opportunity, especially if RSI drops below 42 and MACD remains bearish. VIP SIGNAL LONG entry: 1.12095332 tp1: 1.12411364 tp2: 1.12650 sl: 1.11771
Long
by pipschase
Short Position on EURUSD 4H – 16th May 2025 AnalysisTrading Idea: Short Position on EURUSD 4H– 16th May 2025 Analysis This chart illustrates a short position on EURUSD, in 4hour Time Frame near Resistance 1 with clear Stop loss above this zone. Because this is the potential place for reversal as well. Overall, the market structure is bearish. However, it has reached the Fibonacci Retracement Level of 0.71, from the recent major breakout Swing and it too support. This is the time to check whether Resistance 1 will be taken out and market will turn bullish or if it fails at resistance 1 and continues the downtrend towards the target and then to key support area. Analysis: • Market Structure: The overall market structure is Bearish. However, previously, there was a good breakout from 8th April 2025. • Fibonacci Level: Market Retraced to 0.71 of Fibonacci retracement level from 8th April Swing to recent Swing High. • Trend Change: Might occur, if it can break above Resistance 1and sustains, then we can aim at breaking the other resistances and reaching the Target Area, i.e. recent Swing High. Trade plan: • Entry: Near 1.2553 • Stop Loss: 1.2935 • Take Profit: Around 1.1098 • Risk-Reward: 1:4 Disclaimer: The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
Short
by ManiMarkets