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EURUSD trade ideas

MY EURUSD SHORT IDEA 01/11/2024Direction: Short SL: 1.0849 Checklist: - MA 20 going downward - Break of Trendline - Fib level - Bounce from a Support/Resistance - Penetrate a Support/Resistance - Edgefinder Score - Correlation Confluence - Trading Central Preference Technical: 1. MA 20 Yellow is falling to MA 100 and 200 (Purple and Red). 2. Red Trendline was broken recently. 3. Price bounced off from a Resistance zone. 4. No FIB level found. 5. Tradingcentral tool signaling DECLINE on Time frames 15m,1h,and 4h but it is bullish and signaling RISE on daily time frame at the moment. 6. Q4 seasonality is bullish actually but with a short term bearish. Fundamental and economic: 1. I use Edgefinder tool which shows me a score of -1 "Neutral Bearish". 2. We have US elections coming up and regardless of which president wins it’s going to be bullish for USD. 3. US NFP came out horrible 12k but market wants a revision and is in a speculative state. 4. EUR / DE10Y is falling. 5. USD is on the rise after a recovery. 6. VIX spiked a little.
Short
by stingotho
Practical Application of Order Blocks in Trading🔸In trading, especially in the context of institutional and supply-demand-based strategies, order blocks, imbalances, breakers, and entry points are all critical elements for spotting potential high-probability trade setups. Here’s a breakdown of each: 1. Order Blocks 🔸Definition: Order blocks are areas where large institutional orders (by banks, funds, etc.) are believed to have been placed, often leading to sharp price movements. These typically form after a period of consolidation, when a large entity enters the market to create momentum in a particular direction. Types: ▪️Bullish Order Block: An area where institutions have placed buy orders, resulting in an upward price move. It’s generally identified by a down candle (in a bullish trend) before a strong upward move. ▪️Bearish Order Block: An area with concentrated sell orders, leading to a strong price decline. It’s marked by an up candle (in a bearish trend) before a sharp downward move. ▪️Use in Trading: Traders look for price to return to these areas as potential entry points, expecting the area to act as support (for bullish order blocks) or resistance (for bearish order blocks). 2. Imbalances 🔸Definition: Imbalances (also called Fair Value Gaps or FVG) occur when there is a strong price movement in one direction, leaving a "gap" in liquidity. ▪️IThis happens when there’s more demand or supply than what the current orders can fulfill, leading to a price spike. ▪️Identification: Look for consecutive candles moving in the same direction without much overlap in their wicks. This often leaves a gap between the high of one candle and the low of the next. ▪️Use in Trading: Since price often "rebalances" itself, traders may expect price to return to this area before continuing its trend, using it as a potential point for entries in the direction of the larger trend. 3. Breakers 🔸Definition: A breaker is a failed attempt at reversing a trend, usually involving a break of structure that indicates a reversal but then fails, with price moving back in the original trend's direction. Types: ▪️Bullish Breaker: When a downtrend is invalidated, but instead of continuing downwards, price reverses back up. The previous support level that price broke and closed below may now act as a support zone. ▪️Bearish Breaker: When an uptrend is invalidated, but price moves back down, often causing previous resistance to act as resistance again. ▪️Use in Trading: Breakers are often used to identify failed reversals where traders might enter in the direction of the initial trend, as these zones tend to have strong support or resistance. 4. Bullish and Bearish Breakers in Trading Bullish Breaker: ▪️A level created after a failed bearish structure, turning into support as the price breaks upward. Look for confirmation of price moving above this level, with entry points often at or just above the zone. Bearish Breaker: ▪️A level created after a failed bullish attempt, creating a resistance zone as price breaks lower. Traders enter trades when price retests this breaker level and shows signs of rejection. 5. When to Enter Trades ▪️Order Block Entry: Look for price to return to an order block zone (after creating it), confirming it as a valid area of support or resistance. Confirmation methods include candlestick patterns or lower timeframe support/resistance creation. ▪️Imbalance Entry: Price may "fill" imbalances, and traders can look to enter as price retraces to this level with signs of rejection or confirmation. Watch for candles rejecting at the edge of the imbalance zone. ▪️Breaker Entry: Wait for price to test the breaker zone and show signs of rejection, typically with a smaller time-frame entry trigger (like a lower high or low in structure). ▪️Risk Management: When entering trades based on these points, place stops beyond the zone or recent high/low, and target areas of the next significant support/resistance or opposite liquidity pools. 6. Tips for Effective Use 🔸Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Check higher timeframe levels for stronger order blocks or breakers and use lower timeframes to refine entry. 🔸Wait for Confirmation: Often, a test of these areas with a reversal candlestick pattern (like a pin bar or engulfing candle) on a lower timeframe will provide better entries than immediately entering. 🔸Volume Confirmation: Higher volume in these areas can suggest more institutional interest and improve the chance of a successful trade. 🔸Mastering these concepts involves observing how price interacts with these levels across different market conditions, which enhances accuracy over time.
Education
by ProjectSyndicate
18
EURUSD - One step up - one step downIt's just amazing to see on different time frames how the price actions can be so confusing if we just looking one time frame. If you don't care with the fundamental data which is right now at this moment were the initial jobless claims, which to be honest doesn't really show us any surprise it's became neutral, its indicating that the ranging what we can see on 4H time frame will continue. At the same time at 4 :00 PM within 15 minutes we will get some housing data which is going to show us the new building permits , then ongoing sales, and that's how we can use this fundamental data to take some directions for the rest of the day. Until this data will come the market just doing what the technicals are dictating to it. It's between the daily time frame has an ascending triangle formation, which is at this crucial long-term support levels only allowing us Traders to make bad decisions right now either you going to take along or short Your Position will quickly became green and then suddenly red, red and then suddenly green. ( not to mention the ethics option expiries on this day which is also another element in this market what I just starting to discover ) But it's 4:00 p.m the direction will change and it's going to be that your position will be very green or very red just because of you didn't want to wait for for the fundamental data even though you wasn't forced to take a position. That's what we call gambling. But gambling and being smart and getting ahead of the competitors which are the other Traders hedge funds Banks Pension funds whoever, is just a slight difference. Personality I think that if I can find this narrow route, inside in this blurry word of trading, maybe one day I can be among the best just like you. Thank you for reading- ElGatoTrade
by ElGatoTrade
Potential bullish rise?The Fiber (EUR/USD) has reacted off the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance. Pivot: 1.0524 1st Support: 1.0461 1st Resistance: 1.0600 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
How EUR/USD Could Rebound..The recent fall seen on the EURUSD is reflective of growing USD strength within a major 'Risk On' market. Investors far preferring to hold USD than most major currencies, except risk currencies like the CAD/NZD/AUD. EUR and GBP getting left behind slightly due to natural investor preference. We know the ECB is fairly tentative on lowering rates as they have stated there is a lesser need to based on the state of the economy and economic recovery. The case is somewhat similar for the US, as Trump will likely have an inflationary effect and the FED is confident in their current position. Any further data will likely amend this or keep it the same, but I would not be surprised if rallies occur after the extent of the current fall. Long bias maintained.
Long
by WillSebastian
8
EUR/USD Remains Bearish Amid Trump's Economic PoliciesThe EUR/USD currency pair has experienced a sustained bearish trend for the past five days, largely influenced by the implications of the ongoing "Trump trade." Since the elections, this trade has significantly contributed to the rally of the US Dollar (USD). The USD Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback's strength against a group of foreign currencies, has surged to its highest point since November 2023, driven by anticipations that the economic policies of President-elect Donald Trump will act as a catalyst for growth. Additionally, Trump's proposals to increase tariffs on imports are raising concerns that inflation may rise, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve (Fed) to halt its cycle of monetary easing. Recent data from the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), released Wednesday, suggests that the nation is making sluggish progress in curtailing inflation, implying that there may be fewer interest rate cuts on the horizon for the next year. This situation supports the persistence of high US Treasury bond yields and further elevates the USD's value broadly. According to the latest report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline CPI recorded a rise of 0.2% in October, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6%. Notably, the core CPI, which omits the more volatile prices of food and energy, climbed 0.3% last month and saw a 3.3% increase compared to the previous year. These figures reinforce speculation that the Fed could implement a third rate cut in December, amid signs of a cooling labor market. From a technical analysis perspective, the price has approached our identified Demand zone, where we are on the lookout for a potential rebound. However, as of now, there are no indicators suggesting an imminent price increase. Therefore, exercising patience and waiting for confirmation is essential at this stage. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
3
Market Analysis: EUR/USD Dips FurtherMarket Analysis: EUR/USD Dips Further EUR/USD extended losses and traded below the 1.0775 support. Important Takeaways for EUR/USD Analysis Today - The Euro struggled to clear the 1.0935 resistance and declined against the US Dollar. - There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.0680 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen. EUR/USD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair failed to clear the 1.0935 resistance. The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0825 support against the US Dollar, as mentioned in the previous analysis. The pair declined below the 1.0775 support and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested the 1.0630 level. A low was formed at 1.0628 and the pair is now consolidating losses. The pair is showing bearish signs, and the upsides might remain capped. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0825 swing high to the 1.0628 low at 1.0680. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.0680 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The next major resistance is near the 1.0725 zone. The main resistance sits near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0825 swing high to the 1.0628 low at 1.0775. An upside break above the 1.0775 level might send the pair toward the 1.0825 resistance. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.0935 level. On the downside, immediate support on the EUR/USD chart is seen near 1.0630. The next major support is near the 1.0600 level. A downside break below the 1.0600 support could send the pair toward the 1.0565 level. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
2
Who Benefits from a Weak Dollar?Who Benefits from a Weak Dollar? As the global reserve currency, the performance of the US dollar (USD) against currencies from other countries is an important trading indicator. While a weak dollar might sound negative, there are financial assets that benefit when the US currency – also known as the greenback because of the colour of the banknotes – trades lower relative to other currencies. Who benefits from a weak dollar? In this FXOpen article, we look at the definition of a strong dollar vs a weak dollar and how you can use a weak dollar in your favour. What Is a Strong vs a Weak US Dollar? The foreign exchange (FX) market operates like other financial markets – prices are driven by supply and demand. On the FX market, currencies are traded in pairs. What affects the performance of a strong currency vs a weak currency? Supply consists of the currency being sold, while demand is created by the currency being bought. As in other markets, the value of one currency relative to another fluctuates constantly based on macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, inflation, central bank reserves, and trade balances. As prices fluctuate, there are opportunities to profit from trading strong and weak currencies. For example, when consumers and businesses increase demand for US dollars, the value of the currency increases – or strengthens – relative to other currencies, allowing traders to exchange their dollars for a larger amount of another currency than before. Still, if they want to buy the USD, they will get less of it than they could previously. Conversely, when demand for the dollar falls, its value weakens relative to other currencies and traders receive a smaller amount of foreign currency than before or can buy more dollars with their native currency. What Causes a Weak Dollar? Several major drivers cause the USD and other currencies to weaken, including: - Central bank policy. In the US, the Federal Reserve sets interest rate policy, which tends to drive the demand and supply of dollars. When interest rates rise, investors bring funds into the country to receive higher interest payments, increasing demand for the currency. When interest rates fall, investors look to other countries with higher rates where they can receive a larger return. - Inflation. High inflation reduces the dollar’s purchasing power, pulling down its value against other currencies. - Fiscal policy. US government policies on spending lower the value of the dollar if they increase supply through economic stimulus, such as during the Covid-19 pandemic. - Economic growth. A slowdown or contraction in growth has the potential to make the US less attractive to foreign investors and traders and weigh on demand for USD. - External central banks. Monetary policies of other central banks, e.g. the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BOE), can result in their currencies strengthening relative to the dollar. - Geopolitics. The greenback is considered to be a safe-haven asset, meaning that during times of economic or geopolitical uncertainty, investors sell their higher-risk assets and buy it as a store of wealth. The dollar tends to decline when risk-on sentiment prevails. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of other currencies, initially fell during the Covid-19 pandemic as extended lockdowns affected the global economy but rose as restrictions eased. However, a “strong” currency is not always better than a “weak” currency. Some groups can benefit from a weaker currency. Who Benefits When the US Dollar Weakens? Multinational Companies US-based companies that generate substantial amounts of revenue in foreign currency from other countries can raise their profits, as they receive more dollars when they convert their earnings. For example, if a US multinational company sells goods in Europe and brings in €1 million in revenue, an exchange rate of €1 to $1 would convert to $1 million. However, if the dollar weakens to $1.20 to €1, the same €1 million would be worth $1.2 million. Multinational companies that operate in multiple countries and multiple currencies can boost profits across their foreign operations. US Exporters US firms that export their products and services abroad benefit when the greenback falls in value as they become cheaper for foreign buyers, increasing demand. If exporters raise their prices in USD terms, these will still translate into higher prices in other currencies. US Producers A lower US dollar makes imports of goods and services produced in foreign countries more expensive for US consumers. This benefits US producers that compete with importers, as they can sell more domestically-manufactured goods – such as American cars – to US buyers at lower prices than imported goods. When the US dollar weakens, the relative value of the euro rises, making a car imported from a German manufacturer more expensive for US consumers to buy as the company will need to raise the dollar price to receive the same amount of euros. Investors Traders and investors in assets paired with or priced in USD can benefit from better performance when the greenback weakens. And as multinational companies tend to increase their profits, their shareholders can benefit from higher stock prices and dividends. Prolonged weakness in the dollar can encourage overseas companies to acquire US companies at a discount. In addition, investors in foreign stocks, bonds, or other assets receive higher returns when they sell the investments and exchange the proceeds for USD. If dollar weakness prompts the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates to stimulate the economy, borrowing costs fall for those who borrow US dollars to finance their investments. As we have seen, a decline in the value of the dollar is not always negative. So, what does a weak dollar mean for traders? How can you trade to profit from a falling USD? How to Trade a Weak Dollar There are different ways traders can make money from US dollar weakness. You can trade indices, stocks, currencies, commodities, and cryptocurrencies* via CFDs on platforms such as TickTrader. Short the US Dollar Index You can go short on the USD by selling the US Dollar Index or an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the direction of the dollar. To short it, you open a sell position and wait for its value to decline. When closing a trade, you buy it back. The difference between the ask and bid prices is your profit. Trade Currency Pairs If you expect the greenback to weaken, you can trade it against another currency by buying a pair where it’s a quote currency, e.g. EUR/USD, and selling a pair in which it is a base currency, e.g. USD/JPY. Buy Commodities Commodities such as crude oil, metals, and coffee tend to trade in an inverse relationship to the US dollar because they are priced in USD, so a lower value of the US dollar means that commodities become cheaper for buyers, so the demand increases. You can go long on commodities such as gold when the dollar begins falling to profit from the price rise. Buy Stocks As US multinationals and exporters perform well when the USD weakens, investing in their stocks can generate positive returns. For example, healthcare company Johnson & Johnson’s share price has historically tended to rise on a weaker USD. The stock gained around 20% when the dollar fell during the COVID-19 pandemic, as investors anticipated that the company's foreign revenue would rise in dollar terms. Buy Cryptocurrencies* Cryptocurrencies* such as Bitcoin and Ethereum have emerged as an alternative asset class that you can use to potentially profit from currency fluctuations, such as hedging against a weak greenback. Cryptocurrencies* tend to gain value when the USD weakens, so you can go long when you expect it to fall and exit the position when it strengthens. Downsides of a Weak Dollar For traders and investors, a weak greenback can help generate profits, but there are drawbacks to an extended decline. As the purchasing power of American consumers falls over time, they can cut spending and switch to generic brands, reducing US revenues for multinational firms and weighing on their share prices. Traders holding US dollars also have lower purchasing power when buying foreign assets, such as non-US stocks priced in other currencies. When the value of the USD declines, volatility in financial markets can rise as investors and traders become more risk-averse. A lower USD exchange rate also affects trade with nations with stronger currencies. It can become more attractive for other countries to adjust their currency values to gain a competitive advantage in international trade. The potential for currency manipulation can contribute to political tensions. The Bottom Line The use of the terms “strong” vs “weak” in describing currencies does not always equate to “good” and “bad”. There are opportunities to trade on a weak US dollar that can generate profits for traders. It is important for traders and investors to carefully analyse the opportunities and downsides of a weak US dollar before taking a position. They should stay informed about the global economic and geopolitical developments that can affect currency values and financial markets. If you are looking to trade assets based on the value of the USD, you can open an FXOpen account and trade forex, cryptocurrencies*, indices, stocks and commodities. *At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules. They are not available for trading by Retail clients.
Education
by FXOpen
6
EUR/USD Shorts from 1.07800 back downThis week, my analysis for EU is showing slow movement, as it isn't close to any key Points of Interest (POI). However, after the CPI release, I expect a surge in liquidity, which could lead to a retracement in EU. From there, I’ll be looking to enter sell positions at a supply zone I've marked, which previously caused a break of structure to the downside. There are two potential supply zones to watch: the 9-hour supply zone or the 2-hour supply zone above it. If price begins to slow down and distributes upward, I’ll be cautious. However, if the price continues to drop, I’ll wait for a new supply zone to form or look to enter buy positions from the 3-hour supply zone, as outlined in Scenario B. Confluences supporting EU sell positions are: - Price action has been strongly bearish, aligning with a pro-trend idea. - The DXY has been bullish, which suggests EU could continue to move down. - Liquidity remains focused to the downside. - A potential supply zone is identified, providing a possible selling POI. P.S. If price breaks structure to the downside, I’ll wait for a retest and then follow the downtrend. Look out for CPI and remain diligent!
Short
by Hassan_fx
EUR/USD Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileOn EUR/USD , it's nice to see a strong sell-off from the price of 1.07420 and 1.07800 . It's also encouraging to observe a strong volume area where a lot of contracts are accumulated. I believe that sellers from this area will defend their short positions. When the price returns to this area, strong sellers will push the market down again. FVG and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go short on this trade. Happy trading, Dale
by Trader_Dale
EUR/USD Analysis: Bearish Outlook Amid Strong SupportWith Trump’s win likely strengthening the U.S. dollar, EUR/USD has reached a notable support level that has held firm over the past year. This level may lead to a short-term bounce, but continued downside is possible due to factors like holiday spending patterns, potential new sanctions on China, and renewed confidence in the new administration. I’ll be watching for a possible move down to the 1.04 level if further bearish momentum builds.
Short
by Charts_M7M
EURUSD strategic outlook: BEARS will target 1.0500🔸Hello guys, today let's review H8 price chart for eurusd. Previously recommended buying low near 1.0650, TP hit +400 pips, congrats if you followed. you can review original setup via link below. 🔸Range lows defined at 0650 , range highs set at 1050/1100. This is the active trading range for EURUSD since early 2023 it's well-defined and it's very unlikely that price will exit this range any time soon (not until 2026). 🔸Currently we got a strong rejection near range highs at 1100 and this resistance is too strong for the bulls to break atm, price was already rejected multiple times from this level. there are no bullish catalysts in euro zone to break 1.10/1.11 S/R. 🔸Recommended strategy position traders: bears focus on short selling rips/rallies, targeting range lows at 0500/0550. Bears will take over from here, so there is no valid setup for bulls on buy side. Keep in mind that this is a swing trade setup and provided low volatiliy in EURUSD it may take a while to hit the targets (multiple weeks). 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
Short
by ProjectSyndicate
30
Lingrid | EURUSD bearish MOMENTUM: Short from RESISTANCE zoneThe price perfectly fulfilled my last idea. It reached the take profit level. FX:EURUSD has recently formed a strong impulse leg down, breaking and closing below the previous support level on the 4H timeframe. Currently, the price is generating a long-tailed bar, which could indicate a potential pullback against major trend. Also recent surge in the TVC:DXY , shows a bearish sentiment and on the daily timeframe, the price broke through the upward trendline that has been in place since April, further confirming bearish sentiment. I expect a pullback in the near term, but the overall trajectory seems to suggest that the market will continue to move down or consolidate after the impulse leg. My goal is support zone around 1.06700 Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
Short
by Lingrid
5