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EURUSD trade ideas

Lingrid | EURUSD Breakout Triggers SHARP Market Sell-OffFX:EURUSD has broken both its global upward trendline and a key structural level, confirming a shift in momentum to the downside. After forming a lower high beneath resistance, price is now trading below the $1.1200 level, hinting at further bearish continuation toward support. The structure favors continuation lower unless bulls reclaim the broken zone with strength. 📌 Key Levels Support zone: $1.1000 Breakout target: $1.1000 (support area base) Invalidation level: Above $1.1200 (re-entry into structure) ⚠️ Risks Price may consolidate before choosing direction False breakdowns are possible if volume drops A quick reclaim of $1.1200 could trigger a reversal rally Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
Short
by Lingrid
1
EUR/USD Stages Rapid Roundtrip1.1200 is the key level to watch for traders, with price action around it likely to provide better guidance than the barrage of conflicting macro takes doing the rounds right now. If the price remains below it, establish shorts with a stop above it for protection, and vice versa if the opposite occurs. Even with Tuesday's snapback, the edge still leans slightly bearish after last week’s break of uptrend support. That move flagged rising downside risks, and little has changed since. RSI (14) and MACD both point to waning bullish momentum, remaining locked in downtrends that could produce firm bearish signals if they persist. The 50-day moving average is an obvious hurdle for bears to overcome on the downside. If it were to be broken, it opens the door for a run towards support at 1.0900 and the 200-day moving average. If the price is able to push back above 1.1200 it would put resistance at 1.1276 and 1.1380 on the menu for longs. With a quieter data calendar on Wednesday, let the price action guide you on how to best proceed. Good luck! DS
by FOREXcom
EUR/USD – Fair Value Gap Filled, Market Eyes Higher HighsThe EUR/USD chart on the 4-hour timeframe is showing a well-formed Elliott Wave pattern. We've seen a clear 5-wave move to the upside, followed by a corrective ABC pattern. This correction seems to have completed, with wave C ending right at a strong support area. It's the lower trendline of the rising channel formed during the 5-wave impulse. It's also where a Fair Value Gap (FVG) has just been filled — an area where price previously moved too quickly and is now finding balance. T1: 1.12355 T2: 1.13072 SL: 1.10468
by Money_Dictators
The euro dollar may NOT rise above $1.15 unless...Introduction: The euro dollar is the best-performing major Forex pair this year (2025), up over 8%. But since the beginning of May, major resistance at $1.15 and an overbought technical environment have halted the rise, while trade negotiations between the USA and China are well underway. Although the rise in the EUR/USD rate has been underpinned by structural factors since the start of the year, there is an essential fundamental missing from the prospect of breaking through major resistance at $1.15 later this year. 1) The $1.15 level is a long-term technical resistance on the euro-dollar exchange rate and should lock in prices for some time In our previous TradingView contributions, we highlighted the major dimension of the $1.15 resistance, which has effectively triggered a retracement entry for the EUR/USD rate on Forex. The first chart below illustrates the scope of this technical resistance, which has joined all monthly highs for almost 20 years. We consider it likely that the euro/dollar rate will hold below this resistance in the short term, with initial support in the $1.09/$1.10 zone. 2) The euro dollar's annual rebound was built on structural factors Several factors underpinned the euro dollar's rise between January and April, some of which have a structural dimension: - Institutional net positioning in Euro Dollar futures and options moved back into long territory in the first quarter of this year (see second chart below). - Germany's fiscal easing and the prospect of a ceasefire in Ukraine were two pillars of the rebound. - The trade war between the USA and over 70 countries weighed on the US dollar Now that trade diplomacy has taken the upper hand, the US dollar has entered a technical rebound, with the result that the euro-dollar rate has entered a short-term downward retracement phase. 3) But the euro-dollar won't break through $1.15 until the Federal Reserve (FED) resumes cutting its federal funds rate. So there are structural signals in favor of a rising euro dollar this year, driven by fiscal, macroeconomic and geopolitical fundamentals. But there is one divergence that still calls for caution: the famous divergence of monetary policies Historically, there is a positive correlation between the euro-dollar rate and the anticipated rate differential between the Federal Reserve and the ECB. The narrower this rate differential, the more bullish the euro-dollar and vice versa. Over the past few weeks, this expected rate differential has fallen with the Fed's intransigence regarding the risk of a rebound in US inflation due to tariffs. If the FED does not move, then it is unlikely that the EUR/USD rate will be able to break through $1.15 in the short term. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. 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by Swissquote
EURUSD Selloff Hits Key Support — Hold or Fail?Following Bessent’s announcement on China, EURUSD extended its decline into this week. Now, the long-term trendline that began in 2008 is being retested. Downward pressure remains high, and the retreat may continue today. However, the former supply zone at 1.1050–1.11 could provide significant support, especially with the help of the long-term trendline. Bessent stated that for 90 days, U.S. tariffs on China will be reduced from 145% to 30%, and China will lower tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%. While the market had expected some positive developments, this move went far beyond those expectations. As a result, momentum currently favors EURUSD bears. If the support zone fails, bearish momentum could accelerate, targeting the 1.07 area in the coming weeks. However, as long as the support holds, bears should proceed with caution.
by ftdsystem
4
EURUSD - ANALYSIS👀 Observation: Hello, everyone! I hope you're doing well. I’d like to share my analysis of EUR-USD with you. Looking at the chart, EUR-USD has reached the target I previously set, which is 1.12142. From here, I expect a breakout to the upside, with the price moving towards 1.12650. After a pullback at 1.12650, I expect further price decline towards 1.11464. 📉 Expectation: Bullish Scenario: Price to move up to 1.12650 after breaking above 1.12142. Bearish Scenario: After reaching 1.12650, the price will likely drop down to 1.11464. 💡 Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: 1.12650 Support: 1.11464 💬 What are your thoughts on EUR-USD this week? Let me know in the comments! Trade safe
Short
by PouyanTradeFX
5
EURUSD BEARISH PRESSURE .?Technical Analysis: Current Price Movement: The EUR/USD pair has recently dipped below the 1.1200 level, indicating a bearish trend. Resistance and Support Levels: The resistance at 1.14600 remains a significant barrier, while the pair is approaching the support target of 1.09500. Fundamental Factors: US Dollar Strength: The US dollar has gained strength due to positive trade developments and robust employment data. Eurozone Economic Outlook: The Euro faces challenges amid expectations of further rate cuts by the European Central Bank, contributing to its weakness against the dollar. Conclusion: Given the current technical indicators and fundamental factors, the EUR/USD pair is under bearish pressure. Traders should monitor key levels, with a focus on the support at 1.09500 and resistance at 1.14600, to inform their trading strategies
Short
by Zickey_11
Has the EUR/USD Uptrend Ended?After trending upward since early 2025 on a weaker dollar, EUR/USD saw a notable pullback this week. For the first time, we can technically say that the uptrend has ended. But what are the reasons? The price dropped below the 1.12640 level, which represents the most recent higher low recorded by the market, and closed the day below it, forming a new low. This signal on the daily timeframe is negative and indicates a trend reversal from bullish to bearish. The 1.14931 level represents potential selling pressure, from which the price may decline after testing it, targeting the 1.12860 level. As for the 1.15734 level, it is considered an important resistance line that keeps the bearish scenario valid. However, if the price rises and records a daily close above it, this would indicate a return to the bullish trend and the failure of the bearish scenario.
by CFI
EUR/USD: Bearish Structure Intact — Lower Lows Ahead? (READ)By analyzing the #EURUSD chart on the 3-day timeframe, we can see that the price is currently trading around 1.136. If the price manages to stay below the 1.1414 level, we can expect further downside from this pair. The possible bearish targets are 1.128, 1.11480, and 1.10 respectively. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Short
by ArmanShabanTrading
15
HelenP. I Euro may break resistance level and rise to trend lineHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. If we look at the chart, we can see how the price a long period of slow decline, finally showing early signs of potential reversal. The price has been moving inside a falling wedge pattern, consistently testing lower highs and lower lows. But now, after touching the lower boundary of the structure and reacting near the 1.1200 zone, buyers have stepped in with notable strength. This level aligns not only with the wedge’s base but also with a previous support zone, which adds weight to the current move. The first reaction was sharp, the price rebounded confidently, and started forming higher local lows. That suggests the bearish momentum is weakening, while the structure itself points toward a possible breakout. If the Euro continues to build this upward momentum, it could break through the 1.1285 - 1.1300 resistance zone, which has already acted as a ceiling multiple times. That zone now becomes the key pivot for the next phase of the movement. Given the wedge structure, price behavior near support, and the current momentum, I expect EURUSD may reach the trend line, breaking the resistance level, and continue to grow to the trend line. That's why I set my goal at 1.1320 points, which coincides with the trend line. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Long
by FirstNameHelen
14
EURUSD: US inflation on scheduleThe most important event during the previous week was the FOMC meeting. The Fed left interest rates unchanged, as was expected. In an after-the-meeting statement, the FOMC members noted that they will stay committed to their dual mandate, bringing inflation toward targeted 2% and maximum employment. Still, considering ongoing challenges for the economy, especially those related to trade tariffs, the Fed Chair Powell noted that the Fed will be ready to act immediately if threats to the economy emerge in the future period. As for macro data published during the week, the US ISM Services PMI was standing at 51,6 in April, above market consensus of 50,6. The Balance of Trade reached $-140,5B, which represents a higher deficit from forecasted $-137B. The Factory Orders in Germany were higher by 3,6% in March, beating market expectations at 1,3%. The HCOB Construction PMI in April in the Euro Zone reached the level of 46, while the same indicator for Germany was at the level of 45,1. The Retail Sales in the Euro Zone in March dropped by -0,1% for the month, reaching a 1,5% increase on a yearly basis. The Balance of Trade in Germany reached euro 21,1B in March, higher from forecasted euro 20,8B. The Industrial Production in Germany in March was higher by 3% for the month, significantly above market expectation of 0,5%. As expected, the FOMC meeting caused higher volatility on financial markets. Currently, the most sensitive topics are related to further decrease of the US interest rates and potential negative impact of trade tariffs on the US economy. Since Fed Chair Powell brought some confidence to market participants that the Fed is ready to react in case of worsening economic conditions, the US Dollar gained in strength. The eurusd currency pair started the week around the level of 1,1370 and moved to the downside for the rest of the week, ending it at 1,1248. The RSI started its stronger move toward the level of 50, indicating the potential that the market will soon look at the oversold market side. The MA50 continues to strongly diverge from MA200, confirming further the cross occurred some time ago. The US April inflation figures are scheduled for a release on Tuesday next week. Depending on figures, there is some probability of higher market volatility. The support line at 1,12 has been shortly tested during the previous week. The start of the week ahead might bring some further testing of this level. In case that this level is broken to the downside, then the next supporting level will be at 1,11, but this is not a significant level, on a historical scale of eurusd movements. There is also an equal probability that the market will shortly revert to the upside, when 1,13 might be tested for one more time. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for May for the Euro Zone and Germany, Inflation Rate in Germany, final for April, Industrial Production in the EuroZone, GDP Growth Rate Q/Q, second estimate for Q1, USD: Inflation Rate in April, Producers Price Index in April, Industrial Production in April, Building Permits preliminary for April, Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for May
by XBTFX
EUR/USD Long📍 Entry (Buy Limit): 1.1085 This is just above the 1.1000 psychological level but below previous minor structure at 1.1100. Captures a shallow retest without risking being front-run by liquidity sweeps. 🛑 Stop Loss (SL): 1.0910 Below consolidation zone and wicks around 1.10 Provides enough space beneath the major breakout level while staying tight for R:R 🎯 Take Profit Targets: TP1: 1.1500 (Previous weekly resistance, already tested but not broken) TP2: 1.2000 (Next clean monthly structure level) TP3 (macro): 1.2400 (Upper range of long-term channel, highly reactive zone) ⚖️ Risk/Reward: Risk: ~175 pips Reward:  • TP1: ~415 pips  • TP2: ~915 pips  • TP3: ~1,315 pips R:R = 2.4 to 1, 5.2 to 1, 7.5 to 1
Long
by tradercat2025
EUR/USD: Weekly PAT + VPA 5/11/2025Trading Analysis EUR/USD - Price Action and Volume Price Analysis Weekly Structure Analysis: At present, we find ourselves within a bullish weekly range. The lower boundary of this range is 1.07330, established during the week of March 24, 2025, while the upper boundary is at 1.15734, reached the week of April 21, 2025. The price movement from 1.073 to 1.157 has surpassed a swing high, which we will identify as our initial resistance point as we aim to return to 1.15734. Weekly Price Action Analysis: Analyzing structure and price action reveals similarities. Our confidence in a bullish trend is the anchored weekly bar. The weekly candle from the week of April 7, 2025 serves as this anchor. Following the inside bar, we observed a bearish pin bar, which acts as a Bullish Reacher since its wick exceeded the high of the anchor bar's wick (Wick on Wick). The market shows signs of wanting to rise, but it must first hit a demand zone that weekly traders are keen to engage with. Volume Price Analysis: The last four weekly candles have demonstrated limited strength in driving the market lower, with support holding at 1.11927 (1.12). As the price declines, trading volume is decreasing, following a sharp upward movement, likely due to profit-taking or repositioning. Volume analysis indicated we should retest 1.15734. Good luck and happy trading! OANDA:EURUSD TVC:DXY
Long
by ThePipAssassin