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EURUSD trade ideas

The ECB's impact on EURUSDThe European Central Bank (ECB) arrives at its last meeting of the year in an environment of high global economic uncertainty, driven by geopolitical tensions, slowdown in China and political changes in the United States. In this scenario, the ECB Governing Council faces a critical decision: to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in December, continuing its gradual tightening cycle initiated in 2024. However, the real dispute lies in the future direction of monetary policy: moving towards an expansionary zone to stimulate the economy or keeping rates at neutral levels to preserve tools against future crises. A monetary dilemma and its effects on the market Analysts' consensus is that the ECB will cut the deposit rate to 3%. This cut, the fourth in a row this year, accumulates to a decrease of 100 bp in 2024. In the short term, these decisions are designed to ease financial conditions in the Eurozone, but they generate divided positions within the ECB between “doves” (pro-expansion) and “hawks” (pro-neutrality). The former seek to stimulate the weakened economy, pushing EUR/USD lower due to a less attractive euro against other currencies with higher yields. On the other hand, the “hawks” argue that excessive cuts now may waste room for maneuver in the future. This creates uncertainty in the markets, especially in the FX market, where EUR/USD has shown volatile movements with each ECB announcement. Implications for EUR/USD A 25bp cut could put downward pressure on the euro, as looser policy tends to reduce the currency's attractiveness to investors. However, the impact will depend on expectations about future ECB decisions and the signals given in its forward guidance. If the ECB adopts more accommodative language and is open to further cuts, EUR/USD could break key support levels, such as 1.05, approaching multi-month lows. Conversely, if the ECB indicates that future cuts will be limited, the euro could find support and stabilize against the dollar. This outcome will also depend on the evolution of other global factors, such as US fiscal policy under the Trump administration, which could influence dollar strength. Impact on financial markets In the fixed-income market, gradual cuts are steepening yield curves, favoring intermediate maturity bonds. Meanwhile, in equity markets, an expansionary ECB policy tends to support growth, boosting cyclical and export sectors. However, lingering geopolitical tensions and a moderation in economic forecasts (with projected GDP growth for 2024 of only 0.8%) limit optimism. Looking ahead to 2025 Some relevant European banks expect the ECB to cut rates to 1.5% by the end of 2025, suggesting gradual adjustments of 25 bps at each meeting in the first half of the year, with possible quarterly reductions in the second half of the year. This outlook leaves a window of uncertainty on EURUSD and European markets, which will continue to react to economic data and global dynamics. Technical Aspect Currently the EURUSD awaiting news remains above the support zone. Currently if the rate hike forecasts at today's meeting in the afternoon, will have a palliative effect on the devaluation of the currency. Currently trading at 1.05085 in the early morning hours with a slightly bearish pressure zone since the beginning of the session, a change in directionality to the upside could be seen today. Currently the Check Point (POC) is around 1.05726, a price zone where it was trading on the 5th. It would not be unusual for this rate hike to move the euro in the direction of 1.05400 and break the downward pressure initiated yesterday with the US CPI data which was slightly better than expected although year-on-year inflation matched expectations at 2.7%, although market basket inflation was at 3.3%. This caused EURUSD positions to go long by 70-30% yesterday. Such pressure is similarly maintained. The ECB faces a difficult balancing act between stimulating the weakened economy and preserving its credibility in the face of future economic shocks. Decisions taken in December and throughout 2025 will define not only the course of the euro, but also the stability of the European economic bloc. Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Long
by ActivTrades
EURUSD → False breakout of resistance. DowntrendFX:EURUSD is testing resistance in the downtrend phase. The maneuver ends with a false breakout of resistance at 1.067. On the daily timeframe the price is squeezed between the strong resistance at 1.06011 and the local support at 1.05. So, if the bears keep the defense below the key resistance, the currency pair will continue to fall in the short term. The target in this case may be the area of 1.05 - 1.044. But, technically, the retest of 1.067 may provoke a local breakout of the level and the price movement to the channel resistance against which there will also be a high probability of formation of a false breakout. Resistance levels: 1.067, 1.965, 1.076 Support levels: 1.0448, 1.0331 Emphasis on resistance. Confirmation of the nearest resistance in the form of price consolidation below the level, if retested, could be a good entry zone. But if resistance is broken, the focus will shift to 1.065 - 1.067
by MarketAnalyzar
EUR/USD in downward wedge, bouncing off Fib retracementEUR/USD is in a downward wedge and has bounced off the Fibonacci 50% retracement from the weekly chart, which is also in a supply zone, so there should be good support there. The upper trendline was already broken during the US CPI news today, but the price went back into the wedge. Resistance is probably not strong at least until US CPI news high, so there's a good chance of breaking up and out of the wedge and reaching at least the forecasted level.
Long
by SebFX
EURUSD BUY - Rebound Blueprint Price is respecting the FVG zone (1.0528), signaling a bullish reversal. Watching closely for a surge toward 1.0620 and potentially 1.0645. The EUR/USD chart shows a potential reversal setup forming around a Fair Value Gap (FVG) at the 1.0528 level. Price has retraced into this FVG, aligning with a high-probability demand zone. The 1.0530 area, acting as a significant structural support, has shown strong rejections, indicating buying interest. The FVG aligns with previous inefficiencies in the price, providing a magnet for liquidity before the market resumes its upward trend. The initial target at 1.0620, where minor resistance could emerge. A decisive break below 1.0520 would invalidate this setup, suggesting further downside potential.
Long
by TopGBanks
EURUSD - Short SetupMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels. In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level lower. But to take more statistically more probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation. For me the best way to confirm higher timeframe context is structure. We can notice the red line - break of market structure (sign of weakness) on key liquidity level, so there is a higher probability to see price lower at least on opposite level (marked lower). Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
Short
by Maks_Klimenko
EURUSD SELL Smart Money Concepts (SMC)In modern trading, especially within the Smart Money Concepts (SMC) methodology, terms such as Order Blocks, Imbalances, Breaker Blocks, and Inverted FVG (Fair Value Gaps) are widely used. Below is a detailed explanation of each: --- 1. Order Blocks An Order Block is a zone on the chart where large institutional investors have left "traces" of their operations, meaning a place where there was a concentration of buying or selling activity. It is typically the last candle before a significant price movement. Bullish Order Block: The last bearish candle before a strong upward movement. Bearish Order Block: The last bullish candle before a strong downward movement. How to use: Price often returns to order blocks before continuing the trend. Order blocks are used as potential entry or exit zones. Example: If the market is falling and a sharp reversal upwards begins, the last red candle before this rise is the bullish order block. --- 2. Imbalances An Imbalance is a zone on the chart where demand and supply were sharply uneven, creating "gaps" in the market structure. These zones are often referred to as FVG (Fair Value Gaps)—an area between the wicks of the first and last candles of three consecutive candles, where the middle candle does not overlap with the first or third. It is believed that the market tends to fill these gaps, meaning the price often returns to these zones before continuing its movement. How to use: Imbalances can serve as a reference for identifying potential retracement zones. Enter a position when the gap is filled. Example: In an uptrend, if the price rises sharply, creating a gap between the wicks of candles, traders can expect the price to return to this area. --- 3. Breaker Blocks A Breaker Block is a zone that forms when the market breaks a key support or resistance level and begins moving in the opposite direction. They appear where an order block was "broken." Breaker Blocks indicate that the previously dominant trend has been broken, and the market is preparing for a new movement. They can also be used to filter valid order blocks. How to use: After an order block is broken, the former support/resistance zone can serve as an entry point after a retest. Used to identify trend reversals. Example: In an uptrend, if the price breaks below the previous bullish order block, it becomes a bearish breaker block. --- 4. Inverted FVG (Inverted Fair Value Gap) An Inverted FVG is a zone where the market provides excessive liquidity in the opposite direction, creating an opportunity for "smart money" to trap traders in the wrong movement. An Inverted FVG occurs when the market "absorbs" liquidity, making traders believe the trend is continuing, but it is actually a manipulation before a reversal. It is used to analyze price manipulation and find entry points against the "trap." How to use: Enter after the price has covered the FVG zone and confirmed a reversal. Inverted FVGs often appear in zones that collect stop losses. Example: In an uptrend, the price sharply breaks a resistance zone (creating an FVG) but then reverses back and moves downward.
Short
by Tonksovave