EURUSD May 13 Trade ExecutedEURUSD
May 13
Trade Executed
Premarket Analysis & Narrative logic
*Friday Price Asia swings low to sell side. London retraces Thursdays delivery. NY session retraces to sells off.
*I suspected for Sundays delivery to take the equal lows and a deeper sell off
*Sunday delivery to Asia price retraces the previous range to 50% and consolidates
Expected a expansion cycle to occur-time to look for the sell off set up
*Admittedly these consolidation ranges burn me, I go in too early or too late, too eager.
*Cross reference GBP it did not take its key lows tipping its hand thats where GBP would go
*DXY consolidated in the top side of FVG tipping its hand to seek higher prices
Asia
Prices retraces in the .618 range appears to be breaking down coming into London.
2 macro price swings up-judus swing
2:30 creates a swing low and takes the minor buy side equal highs
2:31 energetic displacement candle-good sign
2:35 creates a FVG and breaks the swing low
2:37 is model 2022 entry but Im not in a Macro so I waited for more info
2:51 enter into a first presented FVG candle 1:56
Price knocked me out at my TP-equal lows
First target equal lows also 1 standard deviation
I saw the candles at 3:15 and felt it would run to the 2 standard deviation but my balls are not big enough yet when it drops like that. It basically scared me!
WOW! great delivery. Great analysis and cross reference of DXY and GBP to support me.
What I learned
Trust your morning analysis and stay out of the noise-minute charts. The minute candles really mess with me as my emotions get jared and put doubt in my head.
Im pressing DEMO buttons!
I was cautious and almost did not take this trade, due to selling in a discount logic.
Very happy with this trade.
Holding for second deviation when I saw the candle formation was a retracement is a take away.
EURUSD trade ideas
EURUSD - ANALYSIS👀 Observation:
Hello, everyone! I hope you're doing well. I’d like to share my analysis of EUR-USD with you.
Looking at the chart, if EUR-USD breaks above 1.12930 on the 1-hour time frame, I expect the price to move up to 1.15244. During this upward movement, I anticipate a pullback at 1.13805, with the price possibly retracing down to 1.12000. After this, I expect the price to continue its move upwards towards 1.15244.
📉 Expectation:
Bullish Scenario: Price to move up to 1.15244 after breaking above 1.12930.
Pullback Expected: A possible pullback to 1.12000 after reaching 1.13805 before the price continues upwards to 1.15244.
💡 Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: 1.15244
Support: 1.12000
💬 What are your thoughts on EUR-USD this week? Let me know in the comments!
Trade safe
EurUsd…Daily FVG fill.Good day traders, I’m back with another setup but this setup is based on the GBPUSD setup I posted yesterday…go and look at it, to get the ideological.
To be honest I don’t think the drop in price to start the week was unexpected because of the strength shown last week on the DXY and on the idea I posted on GBpUSD I highlighted that last week XXX/USD pairs did not perform as the USD/XXX pairs. Which explains why we open with a bearish move lower and now I believe price is gonna do as I expected it on GBPUSD before taking liquidity but strength was too strong.
EurUsd on this respective TF we can see that it has been on a downward movement, and if we take a look at that healthy bearish leg. Price has left imbalances but the most visible one is the volume imbalance that I have shown you on the chart. For the rest of the day should price closer above the VI than I believe we can expect it to move higher till Thursday before DXY continues moving higher.
EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W20 D14 Y25EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W20 D14 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today!
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Weekly order block rejection
✅Gap fill
✅Intraday 15' order blocks
✅Tokyo ranges to be filled
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Trade Wars, Tariffs & Currencies: The Connection Explained📊 What Are Tariffs & Why Should Traders Care? 💱
Tariffs are taxes imposed by a country on imported goods. Think of them as the "price of entry" foreign products must pay to access domestic markets.
🔍 Why Governments Use Them:
Protect domestic industries from cheaper foreign goods
Retaliate in trade disputes
Raise revenue (less common today)
🧠 Why Traders Should Watch Tariffs:
Tariffs don’t just hit companies—they ripple through economies and currency markets. Here’s how:
📉 1. Currency Impact
Tariffs can lead to currency depreciation in the targeted country as trade volumes fall and foreign demand drops.
Example: When the U.S. imposed tariffs on China, the Yuan weakened to offset the blow.
📈 2. Inflation Pressure
Tariffs make imports more expensive, fueling inflation. Central banks may respond with rate hikes—which moves markets.
🌐 3. Risk Sentiment
Tariff wars increase global uncertainty = risk-off sentiment. Traders flee riskier currencies (like EMFX) for safe havens like the USD, CHF, or JPY.
🔄 4. Trade Balance Shifts
Tariffs can affect a country's trade balance, influencing long-term currency valuation.
💡 Trading Tip:
Watch for tariff announcements or trade tension headlines—they often precede volatility spikes in major pairs. Combine with sentiment tools and fundamentals for best results.
Range-Bound EUR/USD: Sell Setup Pending Dollar StrengthI'm currently watching the EUR/USD currency pair, and it appears to be under pressure while trading within a range 📉. If you check out the chart in the video 📊, you’ll see what I mean. I’m on the lookout for a potential sell opportunity, but only if the upcoming data release signals strength for the US dollar 💵. In that case, I’d be watching for a break and retest of the current range low—(BoS). My targets would be set two levels below, aiming to close the position by the end of the New York session 🗽. Please note, this is not financial advice! 🚫
EURUSD - Expecting Bearish Continuation In The Short TermH1 - Clean bearish trend with the price creating series of lower highs, lower lows.
Lower lows on the moving averages of the MACD indicator.
Expecting further continuation lower until the two Fibonacci resistance zones hold.
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EURUSD - Correction Wave A Completed?Technical Outlook — May 12, 2025
Current Market Condition:
EUR/USD has broken below the ascending channel, indicating the potential start of a larger corrective wave structure. Price is currently in the process of completing wave A and is anticipated to retrace upward to form wave B before a possible continuation to the downside (wave C).
Key Technical Highlights:
Price rejected and broke rising channel and is now trading near EMA 50 (blue)
Fibonacci Cloud is acting as a strong support for a retracement
Stochastic oscillator is not fully inn oversold territory, suggesting a temporary relief bounce is possible before a bearish continuation
Previous support turned resistance at 1.13000 aligns with the likely wave B retracement zone
Possible Scenarios:
Long Setup:
As far as EMA 50 act as a support and there's a reversal candle, Wave B will start retracement to above resistance level and will provide a short Bullish trade to 1.12500 - 1.13000.
Short Setup (after wave B completes):
Look for a short entry around 1.12500-1.13000 zone after a succeful confirmation of reversal and set SL above this resistance. Aim for below support levels for your TPs.
Invalidation:
A sustained close above 1.1400 would invalidate the current wave count and bearish bias.
Important Note:
Key US CPI data is scheduled this week. Be cautious of increased volatility and fakeouts during news events.
If you found this analysis valuable, kindly consider boosting and following for more updates.
Disclaimer: This content is intended for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
EURUSD first 1D MA50 test since March 03. Bearish?Last time we had a look at the EURUSD pair (April 28, see chart below), we gave a bearish continuation signal, which not only did it hit its 1.12500 Target but also broke below the 3-month Channel Down:
This has brought us to the almost the first 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) test since the March 03 break-out. As long as this holds, it keeps the trend bullish but the 1D RSI is on a Bearish Divergence, indicating a potential long-term trend change.
Technically it is similar with the December 28 2023 High, which at the time of the 1D MA50 test was also on Higher Lows but its RSI on Lower Lows (Bearish Div). The 1D MA50 eventually broke, leading to a sell continuation that hit the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the bottom.
As a result, if the D MA50 breaks, we will turn bearish, targeting 1.07000 (the 0.618 Fib).
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EUR/USD Descending Triangle Break - Lower-lowsEUR/USD bears took another step forward to start the week and at this point the structure on the four-hour chart remains clean, with a fresh lower-low to go with the recent build of lower-highs. The weekly chart looks similarly toppy as the pair is now working on its fourth consecutive weekly loss, following the shooting star formation that showed up in late-April.
After failing at 1.1500, the pair has already pushed down for a test of the 1.1100 handle. And given the support-turned-resistance at 1.1275, we have another item of impact from the Fibonacci sequence produced by the 2021-2022 major move. This would place emphasis on the 1.0943 level, which itself was resistance-turned-support in March and April. This could function as a bigger picture support target for bearish continuation scenarios.
The question now is whether bears will defend the 1.1200 handle, or perhaps even a re-test of 1.1275, which could remain as a valid lower-high given that the Friday high printed at 1.1293.
For next support the 1.1000 handle seems obvious but there's also a Fibonacci level (from another sequence) around 1.1046. - js
EURUSD Will Go Down! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 1.125.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 1.114 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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MarketBreakdown | EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPJPY, US30
Here are the updates & outlook for multiple instruments in my watch list.
1️⃣ #EURUSD daily time frame 🇪🇺🇺🇸
As I predicted, EURUSD dropped after the market opening.
The price is currently testing a significant daily demand zone.
Because the market looks relatively oversold after a selloff,
I think that there will be a high chance to see a pullback.
2️⃣ #USDCHF daily time frame 🇺🇸🇨🇭
The price completed a consolidation and a bullish accumulation
within a horizontal range on a daily.
Its resistance breakout is an important bullish signal.
Probabilities are high that the market will continue rising after a pullback.
3️⃣ #GBPJPY daily time frame 🇬🇧🇯🇵
The pair broke above a significant daily resistance cluster.
It opens a potential for more rise.
The market will most likely reach the underlined yellow resistance soon.
4️⃣ #US30 Index Dow Jones daily time frame 🇦🇺🇺🇸
The index successfully violated a major daily resistance.
Rise will continue and the market will reach the underlined
liquidity zone soon.
Do you agree with my market breakdown?
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
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EUR/USD sell target/buy orderPrice went down and hit a previously marked level at 11083.6 and bounced. However I believe there is still strong selling pressure and the trend will continue to the downside.
There is another high volume area waiting below at 10996.5, Confluence here as this area was the volume point of control on the 10th April.
Usually would trade this as a buy when the level is reached, but I have the confidence that this will continue to drop, so selling down to this level.
EURUSD Long IdeaHi Traders!
I'm preparing to take a long on this pair. Definitely taking a lot of patience with it consolidating in between 1.14500 and 1.12800, but the weekly looks like it's setting up. I was thinking it could fill in a little more of the imbalance from the push up past 1.2800, but the candles aren't closing that way. In addition, DXY looks like it's about to drop more.
I have a few alerts set to see where I can get the best entry. If everything goes to plan I will be looking to swing this pair up to a weekly bearish CHOCH at 1.1700. Lets see! Good luck everyone!🤞
EURUSD/M15
💫 The Euro structure is bearish in the higher time frame, while we have a bullish trend in the intermediate time frame.
👈 According to the marked zones on the chart, if the price returns to the green zone and we see a trigger, we can enter a sell position targeting the lower green zone.
👈 Given the bearish structure of the higher time frame, we anticipate further decline. However, for lower targets, we will wait for the price's reaction to the lower zone, which will confirm the trend change in the intermediate time frame.
⚠️ Please note that if you enter a sell position, your first target should be the lower green zone.
⚠️ Be cautious: If the price touches the lower green zone without returning to the upper zone and then moves back up, the upper zone is invalidated, and no further positions should be taken in that area.
#Eurusd/M15
Correction on EURUSDEURUSD continues to pull back and is heading toward a support zone.
Tomorrow’s U.S. inflation data is expected to trigger increased volatility.
The overall uptrend remains intact, and we’re watching for a potential reaction and continuation.
At current levels, there’s no valid reason to enter a position.