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EURUSD trade ideas

EURUSD Crucial test on the 4H MA200. Bullish if broken.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Bearish Megaphone since the September 30 High, which is technically the Bearish Leg of the long-term Channel Down pattern, which we saw on our previous analysis. Having found support on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), the pair appears to be attempting another test on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), which rejected the last Lower High (November 05) and has been intact since October 01, making it practically the basic long-term Resistance. As a result, if the 4H MA200 breaks, the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Bearish Megaphone should follow too, which will cause a technical medium-term break-out. Our Target is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.08765. You may use the Higher Lows trend-line as an additional tool to determine if the break-out will be successful as last time (November 05) the failed to hold and caused the new Bearish Low of the Megaphone. Similar analogy with the 4H RSI Higher Lows trend-line. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
EUR/USD / more Bullish ?!? Hello traders ,what do you think about EUR/USD? There are two main options for trading, I personally expect the price to rise at least to the specified level 1.080. The other option is that the upward correction at 4h is over and we look for continuation of the bearish movement with the aim of a new monthly LL in the direction of 1.02 and below. We've had two good bullish weeks, I think an upside is the more likely development scenario. If you think this post was useful to you, do not forget to like and comment.
Long
by PpetroeR
3
EURUSD Daily Pivot Points Analysis 06-Dec-2024📣EURUSD Daily Pivot Points Analysis 06-Dec-2024 Over the last two weeks, EURUSD has managed to hold the Daily Pivot Point, showing a small pause in the bearish trend. In the past three days, EURUSD has closed three bullish candles in a row, indicating an increase in bullish momentum. The last daily candle also closed bullish, suggesting further growth. EURUSD may rise today in anticipation of weaker NFP data. The resistance/target zones can be found at the Daily Resistance levels: Daily R1 - 1.0613, Daily R2 - 1.0642, and Daily R3 - 1.0695. From these areas, the price may move down to the previous support area or test the pivot point zone. --------------------------------------------------------------- EURUSD Daily Pivot Points 06-Dec-2024 Daily R3 - 1.0619 Daily R2 - 1..0582 Daily R1 - 1.0547 Daily Pivot Point - 1.0510 Daily S1 - 1.0475 Daily S2 - 1.0438 Daily S3 - 1.0403 --------------------------------------------------------------- A pivot point is an intraday technical indicator that's used to identify trends and reversals in equities, commodities, and forex markets. Pivot points are calculated to determine levels in which the sentiment of the market could change from bullish to bearish and vice-versa. --------------------------------------------------------------- You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Long
by KlejdiCuni
4
EUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further WeaknessEUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further Weakness The EUR/USD currency pair faces mounting pressure as economic data and central bank commentary from both sides of the Atlantic paint contrasting pictures. With the year-end approaching, traders are navigating through a mix of historical trends, updated macroeconomic indicators, and shifting monetary policy expectations. --- Eurozone: Fragility Persists Industrial and Consumer Weakness Germany's 1.5% MoM decline in industrial orders, though marginally better than expected, reflects ongoing struggles in Europe's largest economy. Additionally, retail sales in the Eurozone fell by 0.5% MoM, highlighting a weak consumer spending environment that continues to drag on growth prospects. PMI and GDP Concerns The Composite PMI edged up slightly to 48.3, but contraction persists, underscoring the broader economic challenges in the region. Italy's downward revision of GDP forecasts further dampens sentiment, increasing the likelihood of more accommodative measures from the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB's Dovish Tilt ECB policymakers, including Robert Holzmann, have signaled a potential rate cut in December, reflecting a shift towards easing amid the Eurozone's persistent economic struggles. However, political instability, such as France's no-confidence vote against President Macron, adds another layer of uncertainty to the region's economic outlook. --- United States: Resilience Amid Inflation Challenges: Economic and Labor Market Data The U.S. economy continues to show signs of resilience. Durable goods orders rose 0.3% and construction spending increased by 0.4%, aligning with expectations. Despite a slight drop in the ISM Services PMI to 52.1, the economy remains in expansion mode. The labor market also remains a pillar of strength - Nonfarm Payrolls: 227k (forecast: 220k, previous: 12k, revised: 36k). - Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (forecast: 4.1%, previous: 4.1%). - Average Earnings YoY: 4.0% (forecast: 3.9%, previous: 4.0%). While layoffs have ticked up slightly, strong payroll growth and stable wages suggest continued labor market robustness, albeit with signs of gradual cooling. Fed's Monetary Policy Path Fed officials, including John Williams and Mary Daly, have hinted at potential rate cuts in 2024, but progress on inflation appears to have stalled, as noted by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman. Market sentiment is shifting rapidly—traders now see an 85% probability of a Fed rate cut this month, up from 67% before the November jobs report. Short-term interest-rate futures have surged, reflecting growing expectations of a dovish pivot. However, the Fed remains cautious, balancing inflationary risks with economic stability. --- Inflation and Consumer Sentiment The University of Michigan's latest data reinforces the U.S. economy's resilience: - 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 2.9% (forecast: 2.7%, previous: 2.6%). - Consumer Sentiment Prelim: 74.0 (forecast: 73.2, previous: 71.8). Elevated inflation expectations and improving consumer sentiment contrast with the Eurozone's gloomy outlook, further strengthening the dollar's appeal. --- EUR/USD Outlook: Bearish Bias Remains Intact Despite historical trends that favor the euro in December, the current economic backdrop presents significant challenges for sustained appreciation. Weak Eurozone data and a dovish ECB stand in stark contrast to the U.S. economy's relative stability and the Fed's measured approach. Key Factors Driving EUR/USD: 1. Diverging Data: Strong U.S. labor and inflation figures versus weak Eurozone performance. 2. Monetary Policy: Fed's cautious flexibility versus ECB's dovish signals. 3. Sentiment Shift: Rising probability of U.S. rate cuts but with a stronger baseline economy. While seasonal trends may provide temporary relief for the euro, the broader trajectory points downward. Traders should focus on macroeconomic developments and central bank guidance as the primary drivers for the pair in the coming weeks. The euro's path to recovery remains steep, with the U.S. dollar maintaining the upper hand in the current environment.
Short
by InvestMate
1
EURUSD SELL NOW EURUSD (Euro vs. US Dollar) - 2H Chart Analysis The EURUSD pair has shown a strong recovery from its recent lows, forming a higher low pattern around the 1.038 support area. A corrective ascending channel previously dominated, but a breakout followed by a pullback to the critical support zone suggests a shift in momentum. Currently, the price is approaching a key resistance zone near 1.046. A rejection here could lead to a deeper retracement targeting 1.04180 and further down to 1.03819, aligning with Fibonacci and historical support levels. Alternatively, sustained momentum above 1.046 could invalidate the bearish scenario and lead to a continuation toward 1.05. Traders should watch for confirmation candles and volume increases to define the next directional move. Plan: Stay vigilant for sell signals near resistance or strong breakout confirmations above key levels.
by FOREXQUEEN_1
1
EURUSD InsightHello, subscribers! Great to see you all. Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe! Key Points - Japan's Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, stated, "The yen has recently exhibited unilateral and rapid movements. Appropriate measures will be taken to curb excessive currency fluctuations." - The U.S. Commerce Department reported that the November Personal Consumption - Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose by 0.1% month-on-month, falling short of market expectations. - Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Federal Reserve, remarked, "U.S. inflation remains on a slowing trajectory toward the 2% target." Major Economic Events + December 23: UK Q3 GDP + December 25: Christmas + December 26: Boxing Day EUR/USD Chart Analysis After breaking out of its previous upward trend, the pair is now in a consolidation range. A rebound from the lower levels suggests potential upside to the 1.06000 line. However, if it fails to break the resistance, there’s a high likelihood of breaching the bottom and exiting the range, potentially extending losses to the 1.01000 level. Conversely, if it breaks above the 1.06000 line, further gains toward the 1.08000 level can be expected. If movements deviate from expectations, we will promptly revise our strategy.
Long
by shawntime_academy