EUR/USD trades with sizeable gains above 1.1500, at over three-yThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart rose above 70, reflecting overbought conditions for EUR/USD. On the downside, 1.1500 (mid-point of the ascending channel) aligns as first support before 1.1450 (static level) and 1.1400 (20-period Simple Moving Average).
Looking north, first resistance could be spotted at 1.1600 (static level, round level) ahead of 1.1670 (upper limit of the ascending channel).
EURUSD trade ideas
EURUSD: BUY trend continuesEURUSD is taking a breather, but bulls are still in charge. The 2-hour chart shows price well above key moving averages, keeping the uptrend alive. Momentum has cooled slightly, yet indicators stay near highs—no real signs of weakness. Dips toward 1.1500 are likely to draw buyers back in.
EURUSD H4 | Bullish Bounce Off Based on the H4 chart analysis, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 1.1426, a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit is set at 1.1603, aligning with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
The stop loss is placed at 1.1266, a swing low support.
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EUR/USD SHORT POSITIONDuring a market turnover the market usually retest or fills left over market gaps or imbalances before continuation. This would be a perfect time for EUR Buyers to get washed out before market decides to continue to the upside. This also would close the losing positions of the market makers shorts against the retail Investors and they would get better buy order before continuation of Q2 books for EUR/USD positions.
EURUSD | Short‑Term Pullback Meets First Support ZoneI know a lot of you have been watching EURUSD closely. With recent developments, we could see a modest dip before the next leg up in the euro.
What’s Driving the Dollar
End of Market Indecision
As uncertainty fades, the dollar’s safe‑haven appeal eases. Investors feel more confident stepping into riskier assets.
U.S.–China Dialogue
News that the U.S. and China are ready to resume high‑level talks removes a huge overhang. Less trade‑war fear means less upward pressure on USD.
Solid Economic Data
Last week’s jobless claims and employment figures were far from recession‑level weakness. That supports the dollar in the near term.
Short‑Term Outlook
Putting these factors together, EURUSD may unwind some of its recent gains. Sellers could push price lower into the blue box, which marks our first support area.
Long‑Term Perspective
Even so, remember that President Trump’s ongoing policy surprises tend to rattle confidence in the dollar over time. Once this short‑term pullback is over, the euro stands to resume its broader uptrend.
How to Trade It
Wait for price to dip into the blue box
Look for lower‑time‑frame bullish breaks confirmed by CDV signals
Enter a long only when you see a clean structure shift and volume support
If price breaks below the blue box without a retest, stay out or reassess
This approach keeps risk tight and lets the market prove itself first. Many traders jump in too early. If you follow these steps, you’ll join the move with conviction rather than guesswork. I’ve built my track record by trading exactly this way—patiently and with clear confirmations. Stay tuned and let’s capture the next leg up together.
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EURUSD 21 ABRIL 2025This could be the potential move for EURUSD that I’d be expecting for the week, based on the outlook of a continued weaker dollar.
Trump’s clear intention is to weaken the economy, and with a higher likelihood of interest rate cuts, this could increase the value of other assets relative to the dollar.
EURUSD 4H LongTrading Idea: Long Position on EURUSD
This chart illustrates a short position on EURUSD, capitalizing on Fibonacci Retracement and Order block
Analysis:
• Market Structure: The overall market structure is in bullish mode.
• Fair Value Gap: With recent breakout (both internal and external), the market created fair value gap, hence we expect retracement to fill that gap before giving further breakout.
• Fibonacci Retracement: We expect the market to retrace to the Fibonacci Golden level of 61.8%
• Order Block: We can also place another limit order near the Order Block.
Trade plan 1:
• Entry: 1.13705
• Stop Loss: 1.13144
• Take Profit: 1.15733
• Risk-Reward: 1:3.5
Trade plan 2:
• Entry: 1.2922
• Stop Loss: 1.1239
• Take Profit: 1.14082
• Risk-Reward: 1:2
Disclaimer : The information provided here is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The author is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information.
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 21, 2025 EURUSDEUR/USD broke out of a multi-day trading range and hit a new high since February 2022 around 1.1485 during the Asian session on Monday.
Despite “aggressive” comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell, uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's trade policy continues to undermine the dollar. Last Wednesday, Powell said the Fed would likely keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged and wait for more clarity before considering any policy adjustments. Meanwhile, Trump's retaliatory tariff announcements undermined investor confidence in U.S. economic growth and drove the dollar to a two-year low early in the new week.
The aforementioned factors largely offset the European Central Bank's (ECB) soft decision last week and served as a tailwind for EUR/USD. On Thursday, the ECB cut interest rates for the seventh time in a year and warned that economic growth would be hit hard by US tariffs, bolstering the case for further policy easing in the coming months.
Moving forward, traders this week will be focused on scheduled speeches by ECB President Christine Lagarde on Tuesday and a number of influential FOMC members this week. In addition, the market's focus will be on the release of flash PMI indices, which could provide new insights into the state of the global economy. This, in turn, may give some impetus to the US dollar and EUR/USD.
Trade recommendation: BUY 1.1520, SL 1.1465 , TP 1.1565.
EURUSD: Local Bullish Bias! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 1.15020 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 1.15639 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
EURUSD: continuously overboughtPrevious week was the relatively calmer one on financial markets, to some extent due to lack of new information regarding trade tariffs. In addition, Friday was a holiday on Western markets, and was a non-working day, same as Monday in the week ahead. Usually, the pre-holiday period is a relatively calmer one on markets. As for macro data posted for the US, the Retail Sales in March were higher by 1,4% a bit higher from market consensus of 1,3%. The Industrial Production in March dropped by -0,3% for the month, while on a yearly basis was standing at 1,3%. Building permits preliminary for March were at the level of 1.482M a bit higher from market estimate of 1,45M. Building permits were by 1,6% higher on a monthly basis.
The major event during the previous week was the ECB meeting and decision on facility rate. For one more time the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points. In an after the meeting press conference, the SCB President Lagarde expressed some urgency in light of ongoing trade tensions as well as increased disinflationary pressures. The wholesale prices in Germany dropped by -0,2% in March, leading to an increase of 1,3% on a yearly basis. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for April in Germany reached the level of -14,0, which was significantly below estimated 9,5. The Inflation rate in the Euro Zone final for March was standing at 0,6%, a bit higher from previous 0,4%, but in line with market expectations. Inflation rate on a yearly basis in march was at the level of 2,2%. The Producers Price Index in Germany in March was -0,2% for the year and -0,7% for the month. Both figures were well below market estimates.
Friday, April 11th, was the critical day from the point of technical analysis, considering that the market pushed the eurusd toward the long term resistance line at 1,14. As expected, the market used the previous week to test this level. The moving range of the currency pair was between 1,1273 and 1,1406. Evidently, at this point of time there was no strength to cross the 1,14 level. The RSI continues to move at the highly overbought market side, above the level of 70. Interesting development occurred with MA lines, where MA 50 crossed the MA 200 from the downside. This formation in technical analysis is called the golden-cross, indicating high potential for a trend reversal, in this case, in the favour of the euro.
The week ahead will start slowly, considering Easter holidays on the Western markets. At the same time, there is no currently important news scheduled for a release. The final Michigan Consumer Sentiment for April is set for a release, however, the market is not expecting to see some significant change from the previous post. In this sense, there is a higher probability of a relaxation in the eurusd currency pair. The 1,14 level could be shortly tested again, while on the downside, there is equal probability that the 1,12 support level could be tested again.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for April for Germany and the Euro Zone, Ifo Business Climate in Germany in April,
USD: S&P Global Composite PMI Flash for April, Durable Goods Orders in March, Existing Home Sales in March, Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for April.
EWTSU EURUSD H1 minuette ((iii)) is going to end
Elliott wave trade setup EURUSD H1
minuette ((iii)) is going to end
micro wave ((5)) of subminuette v of minute (iii) is going to end in five waves:
micro wave degree is developping -> (3)-(4)-(5)
once minute ((iii)) is finished corrective minuette (iv) should follow
Daily Analysis for EUR/USD📊 Daily Analysis for EUR/USD
🔼 The pair is currently in a strong uptrend with no clear signs of reversal.
📉 We are waiting for a corrective move down to the identified demand zones, where we will look for buy opportunities.
🎯 The target is the supply zone marked in grey on the chart.
✅ Recommendation: Buy after the correction with proper risk management.
DeGRAM | EURUSD Breaks the Downward Wedge📊 Technical Analysis
EUR/USD trades in a rising channel, holding support.
- Price broke out of a falling wedge and retested 1.1350, confirming bullish momentum.
- Resistance lies at 1.1500–1.1550.
✨ Summary
Confirmed wedge breakout support EUR/USD growth. Above 1.1350, targets: 1.1500–1.1550 and 1.1650–1.1840 medium term.
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Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
EUR/USD Buy SETUP 4H chart analysisNice catch spotting that bullish flag on the EUR/USD 4H chart!
Here's a quick breakdown of the trade idea:
Entry:
Buy @ 1.13700 (current market price based on the analysis)
Target:
TP @ 1.16400 — a solid upside potential of 270 pips
Stop Loss (Recommended):
Somewhere near the flag low, around 1.13000 to 1.13200
(Risk: approximately 50–70 pips)
Risk/Reward Ratio:
Roughly 1:4+, which is excellent if the breakout confirms cleanly.
The measured move from the flagpole supports this target. Watch for volume increase and confirmation candles to strengthen the setup.
Would you like a chart visual or a trade plan template to go with this
The Uptrend Continues
EUR/USD continues to rise and broke above the previous high this morning.
The next target, based on Fibonacci extension, is set at 1,1608.
The only valid trade opportunities are in the direction of the trend, ideally after a pullback.
Watch for a retest of the previous high and potential buying setups.
Wait for a favorable risk-to-reward ratio before entering and avoid using large position sizes!
EURUSD InsightHello to all our subscribers.
Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe!
Key Points
- U.S. President Trump met with reporters at the White House and said, “I don’t like Fed Chair Powell. I’ve already made that clear. If I wanted to fire him, he would be gone immediately. I mean it.” He urged Powell to resign.
- It has been confirmed that Trump is blocking informal diplomatic channels with China and is insisting on a summit with President Xi Jinping.
- There have been speculations that the U.S. administration may insert pressure tactics on China into its trade negotiations with other countries. In response, a spokesperson from China’s Ministry of Commerce stated, “China firmly opposes any country achieving deals with the U.S. at the expense of China’s interests and will respond accordingly on equal footing.”
Major Economic Events This Week
+ April 21: Market holidays in Europe, Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK
+ April 23: U.S. April Manufacturing PMI, U.S. April Services PMI
EURUSD Chart Analysis
Due to a sharp rise, EURUSD has now reached the upper boundary of the upward trend. This area is a zone of overlapping resistance, making a breakout difficult. There is a high probability of a downward reversal, with the 1.12500 level being the most likely target for the next low. Until the 1.15500 resistance level is broken, the outlook remains bearish. However, if a breakout above 1.15500 occurs, we will promptly adjust our strategy.