How Smart Money is Positioning in EUR/USD – 5 Scenarios UnfoldedLiquidity Maps & Trap Zones: EUR/USD 1H Breakdown
EUR/USD SMC Analysis – Scenarios Overview
1. Case 1 – Immediate Pump:
The market may pump directly from the current market price (CMP) and take out the external range liquidity resting above the current highs.
2. Case 2 – 15-Min Demand Reaction:
The market could react to the 15-minute demand zone , showing a bullish response and pushing higher toward the 1H supply zone .
3. Case 3 – Inducement & Distribution:
Combined with Case 2, the market may first mitigate the 15-minute demand , then take out the inducement (IdM ) near the 1H supply zone . From there, distribution may begin within that supply range, leading to a drop toward the discount zone .
This would likely involve a fake breakout to the upside (liquidity sweep), trapping buyers and hitting the stop-losses of early sellers before reversing sharply.
4. Case 4 – 1H CHoCH and Triangle Breakdown:
A Change of Character (CHoCH) may occur on the 1H timeframe directly from the current price, leading to a downside move. This scenario would also break the rising triangle pattern , triggering entries from price action traders and increasing market volatility as liquidity accelerates the move downward.
5. Case 5 – 1H Supply Rejection & Free Fall:
The market may react from the 1H supply zone and reject aggressively, resulting in a free fall all the way down to the previous CHoCH level , confirming strong bearish intent from premium to discount.
Thanks for your time..
EURUSD trade ideas
EUROUSD NEW OUTLOOK EUROUSD H1 NEW OUTLOOK
according to H1 analysis market running in BUYING pressure now market almost at RESISTANCE LEVEL
so we have great apportunity go short from resistance level market will be falling from resistance so be care full use money management dont be greedy
TRADE AT YOUR OWN
REGARD ALBERT
EUR/USD "The Fiber" Forex Bank Heist Plan (Swing/Day)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
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EURUSD is Extending Higher in an Impulsive StructureThe EURUSD currency pair is showing strong signs of continuing its upward trend, based on Elliott Wave analysis. Since its low on September 26, 2022, the pair has been climbing. However, it hasn’t yet hit its projected target of 1.19. This suggests more room to grow in the long term. For now, the pair remains a good opportunity for buyers as long as it doesn’t drop below the key support level of 1.0876.
Looking at a shorter time frame, starting from March 27, 2025, EURUSD is moving in a classic five-step upward pattern. The first step peaked at 1.1146, followed by a brief dip to 1.087. The pair then surged to 1.147, and pulled back slightly to 1.126. It is now expected to push higher to complete this short-term cycle. After that, a temporary dip is likely before the upward trend resumes.
In simple terms, as long as the pair stays above 1.0876 and hasn’t reached 1.19, any short-term declines should attract buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swing looking for more gains. Traders can watch for these dips as opportunities to join the bullish trend, with the next significant moves likely to unfold soon.
EURO - Price can drop to $1.1200 points, exiting from pennantHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Recently price traded inside a flat structure with weak movement and low volatility in a tight range.
Then the Euro made a breakout and formed a strong impulse, reaching resistance and creating a new local high.
After that, price entered a pennant and made a short correction, but then continued rising with momentum.
Later, it touched resistance again and started forming a triangle pattern with a tightening structure.
Now price is near the upper boundary of the triangle and trades above $1.1135 support without a clear breakout.
In my opinion, Euro can reverse from resistance and decline to $1.1200 in the next move, thereby exiting from pennant.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
ECB lowers rates, Euro edges higherThe euro is showing little movement on Friday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1369, up 0.09% on the day.
The ECB lowered its deposit facility rate on Thursday by a quarter-point, bring the rate to 2.25%. This marked the seventh rate cut since the ECB started its easing cycle in June 2024 and interest rates are now at their lowest since December 2022. The markets had expected the rate cut and the euro showed limited movement in response to the move.
The ECB's rate cut was largely a response to the chaos around US tariff policy. US President Donald Trump has sharply attacked the EU over its trade policy and slapped 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports into the US. The EU retaliated with counter-tariffs but suspended those measures for 90 days after Trump suspended a second round of tariffs on EU goods. The sides are negoatiating but the US has threatened new tariffs on pharmaceutical products and the EU-US trade war could escalate in the coming weeks.
The euro has benefited so far from the escalating trade tensions, as hit 1.1476 last week, its highest level since February 2022. The US dollar has sustained sharp losses against the major currencies as investors look for safer shores in the midst of the turmoil in the financial markets.
The ECB statement said that the inflation continues to ease but expressed concern over worsening trade tensions which have muddied the economic outlook. ECB President Lagarde said in her follow-up press conference that "downside risks to economic growth have increased" which would likely impact on exports, investment and consumption.
The Federal Reserve is prepared to lower rates if necesary but the markets have priced in a hold at 90% the May 7 meeting according to CME Fedwatch. A cut in June is much more likely, with a 60% probability.
EURUSD A Fall Expected! SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for EURUSD below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.1389
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 1.1377
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURUSD Is Bullish! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 1.093.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 1.114.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
EURUSD: 4H holding and is pushing for the next High. The EURUSD pair is bullish on its 4H technical outlook (RSI = 58.651, MACD = 0.006, ADX = 20.500) as despite turning sideways since last Friday, the price remains over the 4H MA50 and inside the short term Channel Up. As long as those hold, we anticipate a new bullish wave of at least 5%, like the previous one. Aim for the top of the Channel Up (TP = 1.1800).
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Bears to Dominate the Euro @1.2000 Handle The ECB is set to deliver another 25 basis points (bps) cut after the April policy meeting, reducing the benchmark rate on the deposit facility to 2.25% from 2.5%, with the disinflation process remaining on track. That being said, my Short-Term Outlook: Euro Likely to Decline
Lower interest rates reduce the returns investors can earn from euro-denominated assets (like bonds), making the euro less attractive globally.
Because this cut was expected, a small decline might already be "priced in." However, if the ECB hints at more cuts to come or shows a dovish tone, the euro might fall further.
My first TP for this week and early on Next week will be
1st Tp @1.2000 zone
2nd Tp aggressive traders with trailing sl.@1.10560 handle
good luck
EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W16 D18 Y25EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W16 D18 Y25
Fun Coupon Friday.
Summary
- STILL with HTF Order block (weekly)
- All long positions invalid until weekly close above weekly order block
- Short positions charted
- The more breaks of 15' structure the more confluence for bearish pressure
- Lower time frame turn around in price action REQUIRED in all short positions.
FRGNT X
EU?
Hi,
It took +-50Dys to arrive TP 1.10
now it had extended 1.13-14
I believe.. there would be a rebalancing to 1.08-1.09
Just like Gold.. it will not respect anyone. Just doing what it wants.
You see a trade you like.. Use money management.
This is all, that I could control.
All the best
Not a guru
EURUSD 30M CHART PATTERNThe chart you’ve shared is a EUR/USD (Euro/U.S. Dollar) 30-minute timeframe setup, and it suggests a short (sell) trading idea within a descending triangle or channel pattern. Here's a breakdown:
Chart Analysis:
Price Pattern: Sideways/descending triangle pattern with lower highs and consistent support around 1.12619.
Current Price: Around 1.13708.
Trade Setup:
Entry: Near the top of the channel (where it is currently).
Take Profit (TP): Near the lower support line (around 1.12619).
Stop Loss (SL): Above the recent highs, near the upper trendline (~1.14165).
Implication:
The trader anticipates a price rejection at the upper trendline
EU SellsPrice traded into a 1 hour fair value gap, all the while taking out a range high created by the 1H 3AM Candle, out of my required purge key time. Might be a valid trade but it doesn't tick all the boxes for entry, sitting this one out even though it might be play out as anticipated, let's see what happens, in a nutshell, I'm bearish.
EUR/USD...up 4h candle formed a bullish flag pattern...Nice catch spotting that bullish flag on the EUR/USD 4H chart. Here's a quick breakdown of your trade idea:
Entry:
Buy @ 1.13700 (current market price based on your analysis)
Target:
TP @ 1.16400 — That’s a solid upside potential of 270 pips
Stop Loss (Recommended):
Depending on the flag low, maybe around 1.13000 to 1.13200 (risk: ~50–70 pips)
Risk/Reward Ratio:
Around 1:4+, which is excellent if the pattern breaks cleanly.
If this breaks out as expected, the measured move from the pole could support your target. Keep an eye on volume and confirmation candles.
Do you want a chart plotted for this, or a trade plan template?