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EURUSD Daily Pivot Points Analysis 18-November-2024EURUSD Daily Pivot Points Analysis 18-November-2024 Daily R3 - 1.0652 Daily R2 - 1.0622 Daily R1 - 1.0575 Daily Pivot Point - 1.0546 Daily S1 - 1.0499 Daily S2 - 1.0469 Daily S3 - 1.0422 ✅Price Stabilization Around Daily Pivot Point - 1.0546 The price is stabilized near the Daily Pivot Point at 1.0546. Considering other factors, if the price tests the Daily R1 at 1.0575 today, it is likely to move down again near the Daily Pivot Point at 1.0546. Conversely, if the price moves down to the Daily S1 at 1.0499, it should rise again near the Daily Pivot Point at 1.0546. ———————————————————————————————————— A pivot point is an intraday technical indicator that's used to identify trends and reversals in equities, commodities, and forex markets. Pivot points are calculated to determine levels in which the sentiment of the market could change from bullish to bearish and vice-versa. ———————————————————————————————————— You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
by KlejdiCuni
4
Advanced Trend Analysis in SMC Smart Money Concept Trading Forex In this article, we will discuss how to execute advanced market trend analysis with smart money concept trading. I will teach you how to identify long-term, mid-term and minor trend and how to apply trend analysis in making predictions and trading. First, let me briefly remind you the basic rules of a trend analysis in SMC trading. We say that the market is bullish if there are at least 2 bullish impulses with 2 higher highs and a retracement leg between them with a higher low. The market is bearish if there are at least 2 bearish impulses with 2 lower lows and a retracement leg between them with a lower high. If the conditions for a bullish or a bearish trend are not met, we say that the market is consolidating . Bullish violation of the last higher high in a bullish trend is called a Break of Structure BoS. Bearish violation of the last higher low in a bullish trend is called a Change of Character CHoCH. Bearish violation of the last lower low in a bearish trend is called a Break of Structure BoS. Bullish violation of the last lower high in a bearish trend is called a Change of Character CHoCH. BoS signifies a trend continuation. CHoCH signifies a trend violation. In order to apply these rules on a price chart, we perceive the market movements as the set of impulse and retracement legs. However, with such a method of analysis a big question arises: what is exactly is the impulse leg, how strong and long it should be. Which price fluctuations can be a part of the impulse and which should be excluded. Look at the example above. A price action on AUDCAD can be perceived as one single bullish impulse or a combination of 3 bullish impulses and retracements and a combination of multiple impulses and retracements. Which way of analysis is correct? The fact is that the price action analysis on each chart is correct . The only difference between them is the perspective . From a long-term perspective , the entire price movement on the chart is a one single impulse. From a mid-term perspective , it is the market that is trading in a bullish trend in 3 bullish impulses. From a short-term perspective , it is the market that is trading in a bullish trend and started to consolidate and trade in sideways for some time, resuming the growth then. With advanced SMC trend analysis, you should learn to perceive a price chart not only as a combination of impulse and retracement legs, but also as a combination of long-term, mid-term and short-term trends and movements. Depending on your trading style, such a reasoning can be applied on any time frame. Look at AUDJPY pair on an hourly time frame. From a long-term perspective, the pair is trading in a bearish trend. Studying in details the last bullish impulse, we can perceive it as a minor bullish trend with its confirmed violation after a Change of Character. Let's discuss another example. EURNZD is trading in a clear long-term bullish trend on a daily. Zooming in the chart, we can also analyze the last bullish impulse in a long-term bullish trend as a mid-term bullish trend. At the same time, if we analyze the recent minor movements, we can spot a confirmed minor bearish trade on the pair. Why do we need such an in-depth market trend analysis? Always remember that a global trend is always born from a minor trend. Minor trend analysis will help you to identify local reversal, trend following signals much earlier. The fact that EURNZD started to trade in a minor bearish trend, being globally bullish, can be an important warning sign for us. You can see that after some time the pair started to fall rapidly. A minor bearish trend continued, a mid-term bullish trend was violated and a correction started in a global bullish trend. Your ability to correctly analyze different market perspectives is essential for making accurate predictions. The trend analysis rules and events that we discussed are more than enough for successful trading any time frame and any market. Study trend analysis, learn to identify global, mid-term and minor trend and good luck in your trading. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Education
by VasilyTrader
6
How I identify the best forex pairs to trade:Here is how I identify the best forex pairs to trade: In the top left panel, the indicator 'Compare Forex' displays the PERFORMANCE of each major currency. The USD (red line) has been the strongest currency for the past 2 months on H6 charts. By identifying the strongest currency, all that remains is to trade the USD against all the other currencies since they are weaker. = Smooth stress-free charts. I look at my trades 2-3 times a day to see if they are still blue or red. Takes a few minutes.
Editors' picks
Education
by ascension
9
EUR/USD and the Fakeout Swing Reversal PatternThe Fakeout Swing Reversal pattern is a straightforward and robust candle pattern that has stood the test of time. In this analysis, we’ll explore how the pattern has recently appeared on EUR/USD’s daily candle chart, examining both its successes and failures while identifying the key factors that influence its performance. What is the Fakeout Swing Reversal Pattern? The Fakeout Swing Reversal pattern is a technical setup that captures moments when price fakes a breakout beyond a key swing high or low, only to sharply reverse. This pattern is particularly effective when the fakeout occurs within two candles, signalling that the market’s initial push was unsustainable and trapping traders on the wrong side. Bullish Scenario: The bullish Fakeout Swing Reversal begins with price breaking below a key swing low, seemingly triggering a downside move. However, within one or two candles, the price sharply reverses and closes back above the swing low, signalling a potential upward reversal. The psychology here lies in trapping short sellers who entered on the perceived breakout, forcing them to cover as buyers regain control. Bearish Scenario: In the bearish version, the price breaks above a key swing high, appearing to continue an uptrend. Yet, within one or two candles, it reverses and closes back below the swing high, indicating bearish momentum as long traders scramble to exit. Fakeout Swing Reversal Pattern: EUR/USD Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Key Elements for Execution • Entry Trigger: Traders typically enter after the reversal candle closes, confirming the fakeout. • Stop Placement: Stops are often placed just beyond the extreme of the fakeout candle, keeping risk tightly managed. • Targets: Initial targets may be the midpoint of the prior range or a key support/resistance level, with traders adjusting based on market conditions. Successful and Failed Signals: A Reality Check No pattern works flawlessly every time, and the Fakeout Swing Reversal is no exception. Successful signals offer strong potential, but managing failed trades is equally, if not more, critical. How you handle losses defines your trading discipline and long-term success. On EUR/USD’s recent daily chart, we can identify several instances of this pattern, showcasing its effectiveness in both bullish and bearish scenarios. Some of these signals led to rewarding reversals, while others quickly invalidated, reminding us of the need for a clear plan to handle both outcomes. Examples: EUR/USD Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Factors Influencing the Pattern's Effectiveness Several elements impact the success of the Fakeout Swing Reversal pattern: 1. Momentum Leading into the Test: Strong momentum approaching the swing high or low can increase the likelihood of a breakout. 2. Strength of the Fakeout: A sharp rejection after the breakout adds credibility to the reversal. 3. Prevailing Trend: Patterns aligned with the long-term trend often have a higher probability of success. Managing Trades: Cutting Losers and Letting Winners Run Cutting Losers Early: When this pattern works, it tends to work quickly, so if the reversal doesn’t play out promptly, consider exiting early. By cutting losers short, you keep the size of your average losing trade small, preserving capital for better opportunities. Letting Winners Run: Reversal trades inherently go against short-term momentum, making it challenging to let winners run. However, traders can manage this by taking partial profits at key levels and moving their stops to break even. This approach protects gains while allowing the trade room to capitalise on a sustained move. By understanding the nuances of the Fakeout Swing Reversal pattern and applying disciplined risk management, traders can add a robust swing trading strategy to their trading arsenal. Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 82.67% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Editors' picks
Education
by Capitalcom
2
Forex Correlation and Diversification StrategiesForex Correlation and Diversification Strategies In forex trading, currency correlation and diversification strategies are vital tools for managing risk and optimising returns. This article explores the nuances of these techniques, providing traders with insights to navigate the forex market effectively using currency correlation. Understanding Forex Correlation and Diversification In forex trading, understanding the correlation between currencies is pivotal. This concept refers to how currency pairs move in relation to each other. For example, some pairs exhibit positive correlation, moving in tandem, while others show negative correlation, moving in opposite directions. Grasping these correlations aids traders in analysing market movements and in developing strategies that may minimise risks. Currency diversification plays a crucial role in this context. By diversifying their portfolio across various currencies and not just sticking to a single pair, traders can reduce their exposure to market volatility. This strategy involves investing in currency pairs with different correlations, balancing the risk associated with currency movements. Effective diversification in trading also includes understanding how global economic factors can affect different currencies, thus allowing traders to hedge against potential losses and capitalise on varied market dynamics. Correlation Breakout Strategy The Correlation Breakout Strategy is a nuanced forex correlation strategy used by traders to capitalise on intermittent shifts in currency pair relationships. In essence, it involves monitoring positive correlations in currency pairs and identifying moments when this correlation breaks and turns negative. This divergence often signals a unique trading opportunity. A practical tool in this strategy is the correlation coefficient, which can be found in FXOpen’s free TickTrader platform. This indicator quantifies the degree of correlation between pairs, with a value ranging from -1 to 1. Typically, a strong positive correlation is indicated by values close to 1. However, when traders observe this coefficient turning negative, particularly falling below -0.5, it signals a noteworthy divergence from the usual pattern. This divergence can be a precursor to a significant market move. When such a breakout occurs, the theory states that traders focus on the pair with the most apparent directional movement. The assumption here is that this pair will continue on its trajectory. Traders then anticipate that the correlated pair will follow suit, aligning back to its typical correlation pattern. For example, take EUR/USD and GBP/USD, which are known for their high positive correlation. If they suddenly start moving in opposite directions, with EUR/USD showing a clear trend while GBP/USD shows mixed signals, it’s likely GBP/USD will eventually follow EUR/USD. Hedging With Negatively Correlated Pairs Hedging using negative correlation in currency pairs is a strategy that allows traders to manage risk effectively. In this approach, the trader takes positions in two currency pairs that typically move in opposite directions. The goal is to offset potential losses in one trade with gains in another, thus mitigating overall risk. Consider a scenario where a trader spots a long setup in USD/JPY but harbours some uncertainty about the trade's potential. To hedge this position, the trader can also go long on AUD/USD. Here's why this works: USD/JPY and AUD/USD often exhibit a negative correlation. When USD/JPY rises, AUD/USD tends to fall, and vice versa. By going long on both, the trader is effectively insuring their trade against unexpected movements. In the example shown, EUR/USD forms a pennant after a bullish reaction from a support level, reflecting a potential upward continuation. Simultaneously, USD/CHF also shows a bullish reaction from its support level. By going long on both pairs, the trader capitalises on the potential bullish movement in USD/CHF while hedging against the risk in EUR/USD. This strategy slightly reduces the potential gain but offers protection against losses, a prudent approach in uncertain market conditions. Confirming Signals with Correlated Pairs When using currency correlation in forex trading, one effective strategy is looking at correlated pairs to confirm trade signals. This involves first identifying a potential setup on one currency pair, such as a chart pattern or indicator signal, and then seeking additional confirmation from a correlated pair. For instance, a trader might observe a rising wedge on EUR/USD, a pattern typically indicating a bearish reversal. To strengthen their analysis, the trader can look at a positively correlated pair like AUD/USD. If AUD/USD is already showing a breakdown, it adds confluence to the bearish outlook for EUR/USD, reinforcing the trader's decision to anticipate a potential decline and go short. In the chart above, a trader might notice the bearish divergence between EUR/USD and the RSI (Relative Strength Index), signalling potential downward movement. NZD/USD, a correlated pair, is already trending downwards, providing additional confirmation of the bearish signal on EUR/USD. This method of using correlated pairs for validation can significantly increase the accuracy of trade entries in forex trading. Limitations of Currency Correlations While currency correlations are a valuable tool in forex trading, they have certain limitations: - Temporal Variability: Correlations can change over time due to economic, political, or unforeseen global events, affecting their reliability. - False Signals: Correlations do not guarantee effective trades. Misinterpreting correlation data can lead to false signals and potential losses. - Data Overload: Relying too heavily on correlation data can lead to analysis paralysis, where a trader struggles to make decisions due to excessive information. - Underlying Market Conditions: Correlations often disregard underlying market conditions, which can be crucial for understanding currency movements. - Lagging Indicators: Correlations may act as lagging indicators, meaning they reflect past market behaviours and might not accurately identify future movements. The Bottom Line Mastering forex correlation and diversification strategies is essential for any trader seeking to thrive in the forex market. These approaches offer a roadmap to understanding market dynamics, managing risk, and identifying potential opportunities. For traders eager to apply these strategies in real-world scenarios, opening an FXOpen account can be an essential step towards harnessing the full potential of these sophisticated trading techniques in the global forex marketplace. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
2
EURUSD - A Big Picture Look At The $EURUSDA long-term look at the FX:EURUSD and two potential trading opportunities that exist depending on how price reacts at a current "decision point" in the market. Given the amount of dollar strength that we've seen lately, I wouldn't be surprised if the bearish move was the opportunity that we saw come to life. But as mentioned in the video, our job as traders isn't to decide what the market wants to do, rather wait for the market to show it's hand & then capitalize on the available opportunity. Please leave any questions or comments below & I wish you guys an enjoyable weekend. Akil
by Akil_Stokes
6
EURO - Price can leave triangle and rise to $1.0765 levelHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 Some time ago price fell to $1.1085 level and some time traded near, after which bounced and rose to $1.1210 points. Then price started to decline in falling channel, where it broke $1.1085 level and fell to support line at once. In channel, EUR declined until to $1.0765 level, which coincided with resistance area and some time traded near. Later, price exited from channel, and entered to triangle, but firstly made a gap and then bounced down. Price broke $1.0765 level and now it trades near resistance line of triangle, so, I think can make correction. After this, Euro will bounce up to $1.0765 resistance level, exiting from a triangle. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Long
by WalterMoon
8
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): Short to support area 1.04000.Colleagues, in the coming week I predict a continuation of the downward movement, because wave “C” is not yet completed. I believe that the price will reach the support area of 1.04000, because it is a strong psychological level. Now we should be very careful, because after the completion of wave “C” I expect the beginning of the upward movement. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Short
by Hellena_Trade
3
Fast idea on EUR/USDFast idea on EUR/USD 🟢 Symbol: EUR/USD 🟢 Bull idea 🟢 Very short term Rationale ✴️ EUR/USD is approaching the 1,05 level where a major support starts. The support is between 1,045 and 1,05. Buying in this area is a good idea to find a short term opportunity. You can earn more than 100 pips by risking less than 40. Which is a good ratio for a short term profit. If the 1,045 level is broken, a bear market starts and you should be ready for a short trade in EUR/USD.
Long
by TopChartPatterns
5
EUR/USD: Can the Euro Benefit from Dollar Correction?The EUR/USD currency pair is showing resilience as the US Dollar experiences a downward correction. Currently, the dollar’s decline appears to be somewhat constrained due to diminished expectations of an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This dynamic is influencing market sentiments and keeping traders on their toes. Adding to the market narrative, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde recently urged European nations to collaborate more effectively, particularly in strategic areas such as defense and climate change. Her comments highlight a growing recognition among EU leaders of the need to pool resources and respond cohesively to global challenges, which could further bolster the euro's position against the dollar. As the EUR/USD navigates its current trading environment, it finds itself within a significant demand zone. This zone offers a potential opportunity for the euro to leverage the ongoing retracement of the US Dollar Index (DXY). In light of this technical backdrop, traders are closely observing market conditions and are looking for favorable long positions that promise a healthy risk-to-reward ratio. With macroeconomic factors such as central bank policies and geopolitical developments playing a critical role, the focus remains on how these influences will shape the currency pair's trajectory moving forward. A successful entry into a long position could capitalize on any further dollar weakness, especially as traders assess both US monetary policy signals and European economic strategies. Thus, positioning oneself strategically could be key to optimizing potential gains in this evolving market landscape. DXY Dollar Index ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
EURUSD strong buy signal if the 4hour MA50 breaks.EURUSD has started trading inside a Channel Up pattern, approaching the 4hour MA50 with its 4hour RSI on the rise. This is identical to the pattern of late October both on price and RSI terms. When that pattern finally closed a candle over the 4hour MA50, the price was catapulted to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (but remained under the 4hour MA200). As a result, go long if the 4hour MA50 gets crossed and target 1.07550 (Fib 1.618). Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
Long
by TheCryptagon
1
What to Do When You Lose a TradeEvery trader, regardless of their level of expertise, eventually faces the reality of losing trades. For newcomers entering the trading arena, the concept of losses can seem manageable — a distant challenge that often feels theoretical until they actually experience it. However, when faced with the stark reality of dwindling deposits and increasing negative figures on the screen, the emotional impact can be overwhelming. Some traders become disoriented or panic, but it is crucial to remain composed and focused. 📍 Understanding the Nature of Losses Not all losses are created equal. They can be classified into two categories: structural and ordinary. Structural losses affect an entire investment portfolio, while ordinary losses might simply represent market corrections. Corrections occur frequently but can trigger stop-loss orders, leading to floating losses that can undermine a trader’s mood. 📍 Emotional Traps Often Accompany Losses 🔹 Fear of Recovery: The anxiety that prices may never return to previous levels. 🔹 Disappointment: The realization that a potential profit opportunity has slipped away, leading to a loss of confidence in trader’s abilities. 🔹 Apathy: A lack of motivation to engage further with the market, often resulting in a reluctance to make future trades. Nobody enjoys losing money; a losing trade can feel like a significant defeat. It is crucial to psychologically prepare for this possibility even before executing your first trade. 📍 Steps for Coping with Losses ⚫️ Acknowledge Market Cycles: Acknowledge Market Cycles: Understand that markets exhibit cyclical behavior. Instruments such as oil and currency pairs typically fluctuate within defined ranges, eventually returning to previous price levels. In the context of a prolonged upward trend, consider temporarily closing a position, as the latter could incur additional holding costs. ⚫️ Embrace Corrections: Anticipate corrections and recognize that they are part of the trading landscape. While it can be challenging to identify the optimal entry point, patience is key. Increasing your stop-loss, despite it feeling like a deviation from risk management protocols, can also lead to additional challenges. ⚫️ Take a Break: Closing a trade and stepping away from the market can provide valuable perspective. With time, the sting of a loss may diminish. However, if consecutive losses occur, it is vital to reflect on potential mistakes — are emotional impulses driving your decisions? Have you been buying in overheated markets and selling during periods of optimism? ⚫️ Analyzing Good Losing Trades vs Bad Losing Trades: It’s essential to distinguish between good and bad losing trades. A good losing trade is one where you followed your trading plan, adhered to risk management rules, and maintained discipline despite the outcome. In contrast, a bad losing trade typically stems from impulsive decisions, neglecting stop-loss strategies, or failing to conduct proper analysis before entering the position. By reviewing your trading history, you can pinpoint patterns and learn valuable lessons about your decision-making process. This analysis can help you refine your strategy and bolster your emotional resilience, ensuring that you grow from your experiences rather than feel defeated by them. 📍 Conclusion Losing trades are an inevitable aspect of trading. Cultivating the right psychological mindset and being prepared with a proactive strategy can make all the difference. By mentally accepting the possibility of a 10% loss beforehand, you may find it easier to close a losing position. Post-loss, take the time to analyze your strategies and assess what you can improve upon. If feelings of panic arise, pause for a moment to reflect — consider the worst-case scenario, or close the trade without regret. Trading is a journey of constant learning and resilience. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
Education
by Lingrid
3
DXY - It is time for a correction!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈 After being bullish for a couple of weeks, DXY is now hovering around the upper bound of its range. Meanwhile, EURUSD is rejecting the lower bound of the orange falling broadening wedge. If DXY rejects the upper bound of the range, we will be expecting EURUSD to break above its last major high in orange. In such a scenario, a bullish correction towards the upper bound of the wedge pattern would be expected on EURUSD. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
1
EUR/USD Short Setup: Leveraging the Retrace for a Downtrend PlayEUR/USD has retraced slightly, offering a good entry point for a short trade. The pair remains bearish, trading below the 200-day MA, with strong resistance near 1.062 holding firm. Targeting the 1.0400 price area, this trade aligns with the broader downtrend, supported by both technical and fundamental factors. Technical Overview: The current trend is bearish, with the pair respecting lower highs and significant resistance at the 200-day MA. The initial target is set around 1.0495, with the long-term aim at 1.0400. Price action confirms a sell opportunity as the retrace reaches resistance areas. Fundamental Context: The U.S. Dollar has regained strength, driven by optimism around pro-growth policies and a solid DXY rally. Meanwhile, the Fed remains cautious on rate cuts, signaling slower changes ahead. In the Eurozone, the ECB continues a dovish approach, focusing on inflation concerns while speculative short positions on the Euro rise. This reinforces the bearish outlook for EUR/USD. Upcoming speeches and economic data, including Lagarde’s address and U.S. TIC flows, could further influence the pair’s movement. This short trade aims to capitalize on the retrace within a bearish structure. With clear resistance levels and supportive fundamentals, the setup targets a move toward 1.0400. Risk management remains key as market conditions evolve. Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Short
by AR33_
2