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EURUSD trade ideas

#AN012: Early July News and Forex Impact 1. US Debt and Dollar Depreciation The US Senate is debating an ambitious $3.3 trillion fiscal package, fuelling concerns about rising debt. The dollar has lost ground against the euro, hitting its lowest level in nearly four years. Forex Impact: Dollar weakness favors crosses such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Possible rate speculation, with prospects of Fed cuts. 2. NATO Summit and Increased Defense Spending At the NATO summit in The Hague, the commitment is to increase to 5% of GDP by 2035. This strengthens European government bonds and the dollar, in view of a safe-haven and new flows into the USD. Forex Impact: Support for the USD, increased volatility on crosses linked to the euro and sterling, potential trade on EUR/USD and GBP/USD. 3. Taiwan dollar appreciation The Taiwan dollar jumped 2.5% as local insurers hedge against dollar decline. Forex Impact: Dollar depreciation slows; Asian crosses such as USD/SGD and USD/KRW under pressure. 4. Global dollar weakness Euro bounces above 1.17 and USD/CHF below 0.80 on weak macro data and Fed cut speculation. Forex Impact: Open to long EUR/USD, short USD/CHF strategies, with potential carry trades. 5. Israel-Iran Ceasefire & Geopolitical Risk Israel-Iran fighting ends, but tensions remain. Markets are monitoring the fallout on oil and safe assets. Forex Impact: Possible increase in geopolitical volatility, with USD, JPY, CHF as a hedge; volatility on oil influences crosses that contain commodities (AUD/USD, CAD/USD). Hi, I'm Andrea Russo, a forex trader, and today I want to talk to you about the impact of the latest global news on currency markets. 🏛️ US debt and fiscal tensions The 3.3 trillion fiscal package under discussion in the United States has weakened the dollar. This weakness fuels opportunities on EUR/USD and GBP/USD, with potential upside on long positions, but beware of future Fed interventions. ⚔️ NATO towards 5% of GDP for defense The NATO Summit in The Hague marked a paradigm shift: more defense spending means bond issuance and USD flows as a safe-haven. This supports the greenback, making European crosses volatile. 💱 Forex Asia: the case of the Taiwanese dollar Yesterday's rise in the Taiwan dollar is a clear sign of protection against USD weakness. Unicorn to watch for those betting on emerging crosses in Asia. 💶 EUR/CHI and euro crosses recovering EUR/USD rises above 1.17 and USD/CHF falls below 0.80: perfect timing for strategic longs. The market is discounting falling Fed rates, amplifying the momentum on the euro. 🛡️ Geopolitics: fragile truce and geopolitical risk The truce between Israel and Iran currently limits the impact but does not eliminate the risk: safe haven assets such as USD, JPY and CHF remain under pressure for future eventualities. 🎯 Conclusion and trading opportunities Long EUR/USD on euro momentum and USD reflux Monitoring GBP/USD for macro sentiment Watch out for USD/CAD, AUD/USD for oil shocks This article was created with the support of our Broker Partner PEPPERSTONE. Keep following me for more updates.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
EUR/USD Monthly Timeframe Analysis (SMC / ICT-Based) EUR/USD Monthly Timeframe Analysis (SMC / ICT-Based) Current Price: 1.17437 (approx) OB (Order Block): A bearish order block is marked in the orange zone around 1.2250–1.2400, which aligns with a potential reversal point. BSL (Buy-Side Liquidity): Located just above the OB, targeting liquidity above prior highs. Price is expected to sweep this liquidity before reversal. FVG (Fair Value Gap): A red box indicating imbalance – likely an area price might react from once filled. Supply Zones: Upper Green Zone (~1.1400–1.1700): Price is currently reacting in this supply region. Lower Green Zone (~1.1050): Previous structure and minor resistance. SSL (Sell-Side Liquidity): Marked at the blue demand zone (~0.9500–0.9800). The chart shows a long-term bearish projection toward this zone after a liquidity sweep. 📉 Projection Path: Short-Term Bullish Move to the OB / BSL zone. Liquidity Sweep above the highs. Reversal from the OB zone. Bearish Trend Continuation breaking below recent structure. Final Target: Long-term drop toward SSL at 0.9500–0.9800 zone. ⚠️ Bias: Short-Term: Bullish until OB is hit. Long-Term: Bearish after liquidity sweep and OB rejection.
by King_Maker_FX
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 1, 2025 EURUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 01.07 16:30 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks 01.07 16:30 EET. EUR - ECB President Christine Lagarde Speaks 01.07 17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI EUR/USD is trading in negative territory near 1.1790 in the early European session on Tuesday. The US dollar (USD) is weakening against the euro (EUR) amid growing budget concerns and uncertainty surrounding trade deals. Four people familiar with the negotiations said US President Donald Trump's administration is seeking to phase in deals with the most involved countries as they rush to reach an agreement by the July 9 deadline. Uncertainty over trade agreements continued to weigh on sentiment and sell the US dollar. Investors are concerned about the US Senate's attempts to pass Trump's tax and spending cuts bill, which faces intra-party disagreement over a projected $3.3 trillion increase in the national debt. Fiscal concerns have dampened optimism and contributed to the decline in the US dollar. This, in turn, serves as a tailwind for the major pair. German inflation, as measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), eased to 2.0% y/y in June from 2.1% in the previous reading. The figure was below expectations of 2.2%. On a month-on-month basis, HICP rose 0.1% in June vs. 0.2% previously, below the market consensus forecast of 0.3%. Softer-than-expected German inflation data may limit near-term growth. Trade recommendation: BUY 1.1795, SL 1.1725, TP 1.1880
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Wave 5 is here... but are buyers about to get trapped1D Timeframe (Main Chart) ✅ Elliott Wave Count: Wave 1–2–3–4–5 structure is clearly marked. Wave 5 seems to be completing near the upper trendline, aligning with potential C wave of a larger correction. 🔺 Key Zones: Buyer zone highlighted under Wave 4 – indicating strong demand before Wave 5 push. Resistance from the descending trendline just above Wave 5 – potential reversal/sell area. Price region near 1.1757–1.1835 marked as a potential exhaustion zone. --- 🕒 4H Timeframe (Inset Chart) 📈 Current Price: Trading around 1.1755, approaching the resistance cluster (1.1757–1.1835). 🔻 Potential Scenarios: 1. Immediate Sell-Off: If Wave 5 has completed, expect a retracement back to previous demand zones (around 1.1683, 1.1446, or even 1.1362). 2. Final Push Up: If minor Wave 5 isn't finished yet, price could test the 1.1833–1.1853 area before reversing.
Long
by Greenfireforex
EUR/USD Analysis – June 29, 2025The US dollar hasn't seen such a significant decline against the euro in the past three years. Just moments ago, EUR/USD broke above the 1.17 level, pushing into a new high. 📈 Looking at the chart, there’s a clear bullish momentum, especially impressive for a typically cautious pair like EUR/USD. To be honest, I wasn’t expecting this much upside in the current time window — but the ongoing strength doesn’t look like it’s going to fade easily either. ⚠️ If you're considering a counter-trend trade, a potential short could be taken around the 1.165 area, provided there’s a solid closing signal, targeting the 1.150 demand zone. 📌 Still, both mid-term and long-term structure remain bullish, and a better buy setup may come around the 1.148 level.
Short
by SineHeidari
EUR/USD BUY IDEA - SMT WITH GBPHere's my analysis , let me share my A+ set up with you : 1 - WAIT ON ASIA LOW SWEEP WITH EUR / USD 2 - WE WILL POTENTIALLY HAVE A SMT WITH GBP USD IF WE SWEEP ASIA LOW 3 - WAIT ON BOS + FVG IN 5 MIN TIME FRAME 4 - TARGET PREVIOUS WEEK HIGH AS DRAW ON LIQUIDITY This is what I see happening . After full take profit, we will have our new Weekly Protected High I believe and from there we can start targeting Sellside Liquidity . I hope you enjoyed the analysis , I will post updates during the day . Talk to you guys soon ! =D
Long
by cyw_chartyourway
EURUSD Will Go Higher From Support! Long! Take a look at our analysis for EURUSD. Time Frame: 1h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is on a crucial zone of demand 1.172. The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 1.177 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
Buy setup TiqGpt1D Timeframe: The daily chart shows a strong bullish momentum with a series of green candles indicating a clear uptrend. This suggests institutional buying pressure and a lack of significant sell-side resistance. 4H Timeframe: The 4-hour chart presents a more consolidated view with price action oscillating around the 1.17200 level. This could indicate a phase of distribution or accumulation as institutions prepare for the next significant move. 1H Timeframe: The hourly chart shows a similar consolidation pattern with slight bullish bias as evidenced by the recent green candles. This could be a preparation phase before a potential liquidity sweep. 15M Timeframe: The 15-minute chart shows more volatility with price testing both higher and lower bounds around the central consolidation zone. This indicates active trading and potential setup for stop hunts. 5M Timeframe: On the 5-minute chart, there is a visible decline, suggesting a potential liquidity grab as price dips below the consolidation zone, possibly trapping late retail sellers. 1M Timeframe: The 1-minute chart shows a sharp drop followed by a quick recovery, indicative of a stop hunt or liquidity sweep, confirming the potential trap seen on the 5-minute chart. INSTITUTIONAL THESIS: Institutions appear to be in a phase of accumulation after a liquidity sweep, particularly visible on the lower timeframes. The recent sharp movements on the 1-minute and 5-minute charts suggest a trapping of retail positions, setting the stage for a potential bullish continuation. LEARNING POINT: "1M and 5M liquidity sweep and trapping of retail sellers before potential bullish continuation."
Long
by Mistermoriarty
EURUSD – June 30th OutlookBias: Still bullish Liquidity zone pullback: 1.16853 held as expected Next move: Watching for break of Friday's high at 1.17342 → possible retest of 1.17311 → continuation upward HRHR Setup: If price returns to 1.16853 today, it's a high risk play due to end-of-month volatility Caution: If we break below the previous 4H candle, we could range between 1.17342 and 1.16853 for the remainder of the day. 🔹 Approach with caution — it’s the final trading day of the month.
Long
by Thetraderscollective
here is the #forex #chart #EURUSD Cautiously bullish. EUR/USD is at $1.17155 as of June 29, 2025, up 0.20% daily and 3.76% monthly. Technicals show a bullish trend, with support at $1.1650 and resistance at $1.18-$1.19. Forecasts predict a rise to $1.174-$1.188 by month-end, driven by US dollar weakness amid Fed rate cut speculation and tariff concerns. However, mixed macroeconomic signals (core PCE at 2.7%, Eurozone Economic Sentiment at 94) and geopolitical risks (Middle East tensions, US fiscal issues) could cap gains or trigger volatility. A break above $1.1710 (127.2% Fibonacci) could target $1.20; a drop below $1.1650 risks $1.1573
Long
by akyolburak701
SNATCH & RUN: EUR/USD Long Setup (High-Risk Loot Zone)🔥 EUR/USD Heist: Bullish Loot Before the Trap! (Thief Trading Strategy) 🔥 🌟 Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba! 🌟 Attention, Money Makers & Market Robbers! 🤑💰💸✈️ Based on the 🔥Thief Trading Style🔥, here’s our master plan to loot the EUR/USD "The Fiber" Forex Market! Follow the strategy on the chart—Long Entry is key. We’re targeting the high-risk Red Zone: overbought, consolidating, and primed for a reversal. Beware the trap—bulls must strike fast before bears ambush! 🏆💸 "Take the profit and treat yourself, trader. You deserve this heist!" 💪🎉 🚪 Entry Point (The Vault is Open!) 📈 "Swipe the bullish loot at any price—the heist is LIVE!" Pro Tip: Use Buy Limit orders within a 15-30 min timeframe (recent swing low/high). ALERTS ARE A MUST! 🛑 Stop Loss (Escape Route) Thief SL at nearest swing low (1.12500) on the 3H timeframe (Day/Swing trade). Adjust based on your risk, lot size, and multiple orders. 🎯 Target (Loot & Scoot!) 🎯 1.17200 (or escape earlier if the cops show up!) ⚡ Scalpers’ Quick Grab 👀 Only scalp LONG! Big wallets? Raid straight in. Small stacks? Join swing traders for the robbery. Use Trailing SL to protect your stolen cash! 💰 📢 Why This Heist? (EUR/USD Bullish Momentum) "The Fiber" is heating up! Key drivers: Fundamentals (COT Reports, Macro Data) Sentiment & Intermarket Trends Future Targets & Score Outlook 🔗 Want the full intel? Check our bio0 for linkks! 👉👉 ⚠️ Trading Alert: News = Danger! 📰🚨 News releases = volatility spikes! Protect your loot: ❌ Avoid new trades during news. 🔒 Use Trailing SL to lock profits. 💖 Support the Heist Crew! 💥 Smash the Boost Button! 💥 More boosts = easier money steals! Strengthen our robbery squad! Every day is a heist—profit with Thief Trading Style! 🏆🚀 Stay tuned for the next robbery plan! 🤑🐱‍👤🤩
Long
by Thief_Trader
EURUSD is in a Downside DirectionHello Traders In This Chart EURUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today EURUSD analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (EURUSD market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on EURUSD Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
Short
by ForexMasters2000
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook: +700 Pips Potential! Must-Watch Setup! 📊 EUR/USD Weekly Analysis Here’s my weekly technical & fundamental outlook for EUR/USD, showing a strong upside potential of over 700 pips. ✅ Technical View: The pair has broken out of a long consolidation range (blue box) with strong bullish momentum. A rounded bottom pattern and potential retest around 1.1500 – 1.1600 support further upside. Targets: 1.19845 as first resistance, then 1.23982 as a major resistance zone. Watch for price action confirmation near support to catch the best buying opportunities. ✅ Fundamental Insight: USD strength may ease amid monetary policy uncertainty. Eurozone fundamentals are improving, supporting the bullish case. 🎯 Key Levels: Major Support: 1.1500 – 1.1600 Key Resistances: 1.19845, 1.23982 📢 If you enjoy high-quality market ideas: Don’t forget to Like 👍 – Comment 💬 – Share 📤 – Follow 🔔 me here on TradingView for the best setups every week!
Long
by Aser_Hosary
Comprehensive Market Analysis: EUR/USD Comprehensive Market Analysis: EUR/USD Here is my analysis, applying the principles of Candlestick patterns, Ichimoku, Heikin Ashi, and Fibonacci. 1. Monthly Timeframe (The Long-Term "Big Picture") Observation: The market was in a long-term uptrend. However, the most recent candle is a very large, powerful bearish candle. Candlestick Analysis: The last two candles form a textbook Bearish Engulfing pattern. The large red body has completely engulfed the real body of the prior green candle. According to the rules you taught me, this is a major bearish reversal signal, especially on such a high timeframe. Ichimoku Analysis: The price is still technically above the Kumo (Cloud), which represents long-term support. However, it is showing strong momentum towards the cloud. The Chikou Span (Lagging Span) is still in open space, not yet confirming a breakdown. Conclusion (Monthly): The primary long-term uptrend is now under serious threat. The Bearish Engulfing pattern is a significant warning sign that the momentum has shifted. The outlook for the coming months is Bearish / Corrective. The price is likely to test the top of the Kumo cloud as support. 2. Weekly Timeframe (The Dominant Trend) Observation: The bearish momentum seen on the monthly chart is much clearer here. There is a sequence of strong, descending red candles. Ichimoku Analysis: This chart is decisively bearish. The price has clearly broken below the Kumo cloud. The Tenkan-sen is below the Kijun-sen. The Chikou Span is below the price action from 26 periods ago. The Kumo ahead of the price has turned from green to red, signaling a future bearish outlook. Candlestick Analysis: The last three candles are long, red, and making lower lows. This strongly resembles the Three Black Crows pattern, a powerful confirmation that the bears are in complete control of the trend. Conclusion (Weekly): The weekly trend is Strongly Bearish. There are no conflicting signals here. Both the indicator system (Ichimoku) and the price action (Candlesticks) confirm a powerful downtrend. 3. Daily Timeframe (The Trading Trend) Observation: A very clear, established downtrend is in progress. Heikin Ashi Interpretation: If we were to view this with Heikin Ashi rules, this chart would show a sequence of long red candles with little to no upper wicks, which confirms a strong and healthy downtrend. Fibonacci Analysis: The small rallies (green candles) that have occurred have been very shallow, failing to retrace significantly before the downtrend resumes. This indicates strong bearish momentum. Each small bounce is a corrective move within the larger bearish trend. Conclusion (Daily): The daily trend is Established Bearish. The path of least resistance is clearly downwards. Traders would likely view any small rallies on this timeframe as selling opportunities. 4. 4-Hour and 1-Hour Timeframes (The Intraday Trend) Observation: Both charts show a consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows, which is the definition of a downtrend. The 1-Hour chart shows some periods of consolidation (like the "Spinning Top" candles you taught me, indicating indecision) before the next leg down. Ichimoku Analysis: On both timeframes, the price is trading far below the Kumo cloud, which will now act as a major resistance zone. Any attempt to rally will face significant selling pressure from the cloud. Conclusion (4H & 1H): The intraday trend is Bearish. The momentum is clearly to the downside. 5. Lower Timeframes (30M, 15M, 5M) Observation: These charts show the most recent price action. There appears to be a very small, short-term bounce or consolidation happening on the 5-minute chart after a sharp sell-off. Contextual Analysis: Based on the overwhelming bearish pressure from every single higher timeframe (Monthly, Weekly, Daily, 4H, 1H), this small bounce is very likely to be temporary "noise" or a minor profit-taking consolidation. It does not represent a genuine reversal. Heikin Ashi Rule Application: A "sudden color change" after a strong trend can signal a reversal. However, rule #3 and #4 (smaller bodies, wicks on both sides) would likely appear first, signaling a weakening of the trend before any true reversal. We are not seeing a strong reversal signal here, only a pause. Conclusion (Lower TFs): While prone to short-term bounces, the context is Overwhelmingly Bearish. These small rallies are fragile and likely to fail. Overall Synthesis and Final Conclusion By performing a top-down analysis as a real trader would, a very clear picture emerges: Long-Term (Monthly): A major warning shot has been fired against the primary bull trend. Medium-Term (Weekly/Daily): The trend has now confirmed a strong bearish reversal. The sellers are in firm control. Short-Term (4H and below): The downtrend is active and established. Final Outlook: The multi-timeframe analysis is in strong alignment. The overwhelming evidence suggests that the next significant move for EUR/USD will be to the downside. Any short-term bullish bounces should be viewed with extreme skepticism and are likely to be selling opportunities for trend-following traders. The overall market bias is Bearish. For those interested in further developing their trading skills based on these types of analyses, consider exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future work. Regards, Shunya Trade ⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
by shoonya0000
SMC Mechanical Entry Models Cheatsheet✅ Smart Money Concepts & Liquidity Checklist: DOWNLOAD ENTRY MODELS GUIDE 1. Market Structure 🔹 Identify HTF Trend (H4 or H1): bullish, bearish, or range 🔹 Confirm Break of Structure (BOS) or Change of Character (CHoCH) on M15–M5 🔹 Look for lower highs/lows (downtrend) or higher highs/lows (uptrend) 2. Liquidity Zones 🔹 Look for equal highs/lows (liquidity pools) 🔹 Asian highs/lows — common targets during London/NY session 🔹 Recent internal range liquidity 🔹 Trendline liquidity — fakeouts often occur here 3. Premium & Discount Zones (PD Arrays) 🔹 Use Fibonacci from recent swing high to low 🔹 Look for entries at Discount (Longs) or Premium (Shorts) pricing 🔹 Ideal entries happen between 0.62–0.79 retracement 4. Supply & Demand Zones 🔹 Find fresh OBs (Order Blocks) that caused a break of structure 🔹 Use last bullish candle before strong drop (for short) or last bearish candle before strong rally (for long) 🔹 Confirm zone isn’t mitigated yet 5. Imbalance / Fair Value Gaps (FVG) 🔹 Identify large imbalanced candles (no wick overlap) 🔹 Ideal entries are inside the FVG aligned with direction 🔹 High probability if FVG is within OB or confluence with structure/liquidity 6. Confluences for Entry 🔹 Entry aligns with liquidity sweep or FVG/OB tap 🔹 Volume spike or rejection wick confirms interest 🔹 RSI divergence or exhaustion = bonus confirmation 🔹 Use M1/M5 for entry trigger after setup is formed on M15–H1 7. Entry Trigger 🔹 CHoCH or BOS on lower timeframe (M1-M5) 🔹 Confirmation with engulfing candle, FVG fill, or break/retest 🔹 SL below/above recent swing or OB boundary 8. TP/Exit Zones 🔹 TP1: After BOS/structure shift + partial 🔹 TP2: Next liquidity level (equal high/low or OB) 🔹 TP3: Opposite OB or major FVG 🔹 Adjust SL to breakeven after reaching TP1 9. Session Timing (Important) 🔹 Asian range → look for liquidity setup 🔹 London Open (3PM–6PM PH))→ manipulative move (liquidity grab) 🔹 NY Open (8PM–11PM PH) → continuation or reversal opportunity 🔹 Avoid high-impact news releases unless breakout 🔹 Use Forex Factory / MyFXBook for news calendar 10. Post-Trade Journaling: 🔹Screenshot HTF → LTF Setup (H4 > M15 > M1) 🔹Don’t skip journaling — it’s your #1 improvement tool.
by jeniceinocentes