#004 Forex: Recovery Week and Macro Expectations
The week just ended marked a tactical turning point in global financial markets. After the correction in April and the instability in May, investors seem to be starting to bet on a return to stability, but caution remains a must. Let's look in detail at the main events and scenarios that marked this week in the stock markets and in the world of forex.
📈 Global stock markets: technical rebound or inversion?
In the United States, the Nasdaq was the protagonist of a recovery supported by tech and AI stocks. After weeks of selling, some key sectors such as semiconductors and gold led the recovery.
In Asia, Hong Kong (+0.9%) and emerging markets showed strength, also driven by the rebound in the MSCI EM index.
In Europe, stock markets benefited from a more relaxed climate and an ECB that is gradually becoming more accommodating.
💱 Forex: Dollar Weak, Euro Consolidating
The US dollar has been struggling all week, weighed down by dovish macro data expectations and rising geopolitical tensions.
EUR/USD has shown signs of consolidating above 1.08, with room for further bullish extensions if dollar sentiment deteriorates further.
Also of note is the Russian Central Bank’s rate cut, which had little effect on EM currencies but signals a global return to looser monetary policies.
📆 Busy Macro Week: Key Data Coming Soon
Traders are eagerly awaiting US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), CPI and the Fed meeting on June 12. These events will be key to the future direction of US monetary policy.
In parallel, China’s CPI and PPI will complete a highly relevant macro picture for FX trading.
🌍 Geopolitics and volatility: risk remains high
Trade instability, with new statements from Trump, has caused some pressure on Asian stock markets.
The "triple witching day" (simultaneous expiration of options and derivatives) at the end of June is approaching, which could amplify volatility especially in US markets.
📌 In summary: what to watch now
Stocks: is the rebound technical or the start of a new trend? The answer will depend on US data and the Fed's response.
Forex: watch out for the dollar's structural weakness, with the euro likely to remain the leading currency of the month.
Volatility: likely spikes around the technical expirations of mid/late June.
Outlook: mixed context, with tactical opportunities but still high risk.
📍 Conclusion
Markets are looking for a balance, but it is a fragile balance. Incoming macro data and global political tensions will act as catalysts in the next two weeks. For those trading stocks or forex, it’s time to stay informed, flexible and disciplined.
