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EURUSD trade ideas

Trading EURUSD AUDUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 05/08/2025The Judas Swing strategy kicked off the new week with two solid setups on Monday, this time on OANDA:AUDUSD and FX:EURUSD While both played out beautifully from a structure and liquidity perspective, let’s walk through the reasoning behind each trade and how they unfolded The first setup of the day formed on EURUSD during the early part of the New York session. Price had been ranging during the London hours, setting clear highs and lows. Just as expected, NY brought the liquidity sweep a sharp push above the range high, baiting breakout buyers and triggering stops. That was our cue. Once the sweep completed, we watched closely for the break of structure to confirm the reversal. It came swiftly, followed by a retrace into the freshly formed Fair Value Gap the same confluence we wait for every time. As price tapped into the imbalance and printed a bearish close, we executed the short. Risk: 1%. Target: 2R. Price moved cleanly in our direction, offering little drawdown and ultimately hitting our target in due time. A disciplined start to the week with a solid +2% gain. Not long after we entered the FX:EURUSD position, OANDA:AUDUSD served up a nearly identical setup. Once again, we had a clear range established during the Judas Swing sessions. Then came the sweep price spiked above the range high, taking out buy-side liquidity before quickly reversing. We marked our structure break and noted the FVG left behind. Just like before, we waited for the retrace no chasing. Price pulled back, tapped the imbalance, and gave us a strong bearish entry signal. We entered short with the same parameters: 1% risk, aiming for a 2R return. The market delivered. The trade ran smoothly to target, netting our second +2% win of the day.
by CleoFinance
USD, JPY, CHF. Plus a little psychology A fairly subdued start to the week kicked into life with some USD selling today. It's worth noting how much difference a week can make. Following chair Powell's press conference this time last week, I started to wonder if there would be 0 FED rate cuts for the rest of the year. Fast forward a few days and NFP data blew anything chair Powell said out of the water. Now the market is talking (erratically) about emergency rate cuts. Personally, my opinion is that a cut in September is very likely and a further cut before year end is 50/50. Ultimately, it doesn't matter what my 'medium term' view is. What matters is the here and now. I'm still of the opinion USD strength can be sold. Plus I think JPY shorts are viable....and, thanks to tariff woes, the CHF is back on my radar as a short option. Today at 11 am (UK time), post EUR retail sales data, EUR USD had upward momentum and I very nearly placed a EUR USD long trade. And actually, it was such a fine call that it was a rare occasion that no matter the decision I made (trade or not) I think I would have looked backed and still felt it was the correct decision in the moment. Ultimately, the fact it was only a few hours until US open swayed me to wait. A few hours later the 'potential' profit target had been hit and I'm currently waiting for a pullback before I think a USD short trade is viable. The psychology I'm trying to get across is ...trade or no trade, win or loss...it doesn't matter. This week I've 'missed an opportunity' and placed a trade that stopped out but eventually the price went to the original profit target. The underlying theme being that 'my bias was correct' . If your underlying bias is proven correct 'most of the time'. you will make money over a 12 month period. Regardless of each 'individual' decision you make. I realise that's easier said than done. Please feel free to email any questions:
by johnelfedforexblog
EU Long, Then, ShortM: Downtrend, made a new low W: Uptrend, respecting the lows D: Uptrend, price bbroke and retested trendline 4H: Downtrend, price retraced 78.6% and hit -61.8 on 4H fib and reversed to go long 1H: Downtrend, price broke and retested trendline. Aggressively long on NFP news (-jobs) DXY is show bullish divergence EU minor trend is showing bearish divergence. CURRENTLY: I'm looking for price to go long to retest the 4H trendline @ the 1H support/resistance, then continue short.
by jcmoneyman
EURUSD Holds Range on Tariff and Fed UncertaintyIn line with the DXY’s pullback below 98, the EURUSD jumped near the 1.16 resistance, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 3-legged correction from the 2025 peak, where it is facing another drop-down risk for another 3 legs down should the trend not confirm a clean close above 1.16. My scenarios are the following: Bearish Scenario: a clean hold below 1.1450 can extend losses back towards 1.1380 where it can hold the trend or make way for a deeper drop towards 1.12. Bullish Scenario: a clean hold above 1.16 may extend gains back in the direction of 2025 peaks near 1.1680 and 1.1770 before extending new 2025 records. - Razan HiLal, CMT
by FOREXcom
EURUSD(20250806) Today's AnalysisMarket News: The US non-manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1 in July from 50.8 in June, below the expected 51.5. The ISM New Orders Index fell to 50.3 in July from 51.3 in June, with export orders contracting for the fourth time in five months. Technical Analysis: Today's Buy/Sell Levels: 1.1562 Support and Resistance Levels: 1.1622 1.1600 1.1585 1.1539 1.1525 1.1503 Trading Strategy: If the price breaks above 1.1585, consider entering a buy position, with the first target price at 1.1600. If the price breaks below 1.1562, consider entering a sell position, with the first target price at 1.1539
by NicolaZhu
EUR/USD Trading Idea – Key Breakout Levels in FocusNeutral bias with breakout potential Technical Analysis EUR/USD is currently trading just below the key resistance zone of 1.1600, consolidating in a tight range. A break and close above 1.1600 could confirm bullish momentum and open the door toward the next targets at: -1.1700 (mid-term resistance/imbalance) -1.1800 (extension target from recent swing low). On the bearish side, the pair remains capped by the: -50-day EMA and 200-day EMA, both still above current price -These moving averages signal potential resistance if the breakout fails and could drag EUR/USD lower toward 1.1200–1.1400 support. Fundamental Drivers +Bullish Case for EUR/USD Dovish Fed outlook after U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls missed expectations (+73K), increasing speculation of a rate cut by September Political pressure on the Fed and questions around U.S. data credibility are eroding dollar confidence (Reuters, Aug 5) ECB expected to pause rate hikes, but not cut imminently, with July inflation steady at ~2.0–2.3% JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and MUFG forecast EUR/USD to reach 1.17–1.22 by year-end, with medium-term structural weakness in the USD Bearish Risk Factors EMA 50/200 above price suggest momentum is still fragile Technical rejection at or near 1.1600 could trigger another pullback to 1.1200-1.1400 support Wells Fargo and SocGen still expect downside risk toward parity (1.00) if U.S. resilience surprises or eurozone growth weakens again Conclusion EUR/USD is approaching a decisive moment around the 1.1600 resistance. A confirmed breakout could realign the pair with institutional upside targets, while failure below the EMAs could drag it back into range or deeper correction. Watch 1.1600 for clean confirmation.
by rb_4x
Fundamental Market Analysis for August 5, 2025 EURUSDEvent to pay attention to today: 17:00 EET. USD - ISM Services PMI EUR/USD continues to fall for the second day in a row, trading around 1.1560 during Tuesday's Asian session. The pair is devaluing amid the strengthening of the US dollar (USD) due to caution among traders caused by recent events in global trade and changes in expectations regarding monetary policy. Market sentiment is becoming cautious due to growing concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve (Fed). On Monday, Fed board member Adriana Kugler unexpectedly resigned. This event gave US President Donald Trump the opportunity to influence the central bank earlier than expected. However, the US dollar may face difficulties amid growing chances of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September after weak labor market data reinforced concerns about the US economic outlook. Markets estimate the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month at 91.6%. By comparison, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep rates unchanged, as annual inflation in the eurozone remained at 2.0% in July, slightly above the forecast of 1.9%. Meanwhile, traders are cautious amid the introduction of 15% US tariffs on goods imported from the European Union (EU). Trade recommendation: BUY 1.1580, SL 1.1500, TP 1.1685
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EUR/USD Intraday Analysis – Bearish Momentum Continues with WeakThe 1-hour chart of EUR/USD suggests continued bearish momentum, though a temporary price bounce may be on the horizon. The pair is currently trading around 1.15589, struggling below the 9-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). This indicates that short-term trend pressure remains bearish. 🔍 Technical Overview ✅ Price Action: The market recently made a lower low, touching near 1.15400 before showing a minor rebound. Sellers have clearly been in control, forming a strong sequence of bearish candles. The SMA 9 is trending downward and is acting as dynamic resistance, confirming bearish pressure. 📊 Indicators: SMA 9 (close): Price is still trading below the moving average, indicating that the pair is in a short-term downtrend. RSI 14 (Relative Strength Index): The RSI has dropped below the 40 level, which shows bearish momentum. However, the RSI has started to curl upward, suggesting a minor relief rally may occur — but it’s too early to confirm a reversal. 📈 Possible Trade Setups: 🔻 Sell on Pullback (Preferred): Sell Entry: Near 1.15750–1.15800 (around SMA resistance) Stop Loss: 1.16050 Take Profit: 1.15300 / 1.15000 ⚠️ Cautious Buy (Aggressive): If RSI breaks above 50 and price closes above SMA 9, short-term buying could be considered, but overall bias remains bearish until reversal confirmation. 🔧 Support & Resistance Levels: LevelPriceResistance1.15850Resistance1.16000Support1.15350Support1.15000  📌 Conclusion EUR/USD remains in a short-term bearish trend, with sellers dominating price action. While a minor RSI bounce is visible, the price still trades under SMA resistance, making “Sell on Rally” the more favorable strategy. Traders should be cautious of any news-driven volatility and wait for strong confirmation before entering aggressive buy trades.
Short
by forexinworld
EUR/USD Recovery Testing July BreakdownEuro rebounded off downtrend support last week with the rally extending 1.8% off the monthly low. The focus is on this recovery with resistance objectives eyed at the 2016 high at 1.1616 and the 61.8% retracement of the July sell-off at 1.1662- rallies would need to be limited to this threshold IF price is heading lower on this stretch. A break / close below the monthly open / 23.6% retracement of the yearly range at 1.1415/40 is needed to mark downtrend resumption with subsequent support objective seen at 1.1347 and the 2023 high at 1.1275. -MB
by FOREXcom
US dollar gets hit by weird disappointing NFP numbersLast Friday the US delivered not its best NFP reading. US dollar bears jumped into action. Let's dig in! MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX TVC:DXY FX_IDC:EURUSD FX_IDC:USDJPY FX_IDC:USDCAD Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 75.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
by Marketscom