EURUSD trade ideas
EURUSD Down movement after test of the resistance crossingFollowing a significant bearish decline in autumn, EUR/USD has entered a consolidation phase, moving sideways. This behavior often occurs after substantial market movements. If the price retests the channel boundary and rebounds, it may indicate a continuation of the bearish trend from the resistance zone and channel border. The target for this movement is the support zone around 1.04300
EUR/USD: Are We Crashing Through Parity?Well, well, well, EUR/USD, you sly dog. Just when we thought the pair might catch a break, it doubles down on its favorite hobby—going DOWN. 📉 Since late September, this thing has been in a nosedive so steep it makes roller coasters look tame. 🎢
And now? It’s giving us not one but TWO glorious bearish flags. That’s the market’s way of saying, “Hold my beer, I’ve got more downside to cover.” 🍺 So, buckle up as we break down what’s happening with EUR/USD, why it’s acting like a currency in free fall, and just how low it might go. Spoiler alert: Parity might not be far enough. 😏
The Downtrend Diaries: EUR/USD’s Love Affair with Lows
Okay, let’s rewind to late September. What happened? Oh, just EUR/USD deciding it was time to swap its bull costume for a full-blown bear suit. 🐻 We’re talking lower highs, lower lows, and every technical analyst’s favorite phrase: "the trend is your friend" (until it’s not, of course).
This week? The pair is snuggled nicely inside its second bearish flag, like a bear hibernating before its next big move. For those of you wondering, a bearish flag is when the market pauses, catches its breath, and says, “Alright, time to drop some more.” And let me tell you, these flags aren’t subtle. They’re practically screaming, “Hey, the trend’s still bearish—don’t get any ideas!”
Why So Bearish? Let’s Blame the Usual Suspects
The Almighty Dollar Flexing Again 💪
The USD is out here reminding everyone why it’s called the safe-haven king. Interest rates? Still high. Risk-off sentiment? Very much alive. Meanwhile, the euro’s like that one kid who forgot to study for the test—it’s just not prepared to fight back. 🤷♂️
Eurozone: Where’s the Mojo?
Between slowing growth, sticky inflation, and the French government imploding (because why not?), the euro is struggling to convince anyone it’s worth a rally. Even the promise of €500 billion in defense spending couldn’t lift its spirits for long. If fiscal spending can’t save the day, what can?
Bearish Flags Don’t Lie 🚩
These flags are the cherry on top of the downtrend sundae. First, we had one around 1.0650, which broke lower like clockwork. Now we’re staring down another flag that’s coiled tighter than my jeans after Thanksgiving dinner. Once this breaks, well... let’s just say the floor is looking mighty inviting.
How Low Can It Go? Let’s Talk Targets 🔭
Now, if this flag plays out like the textbook says, EUR/USD could easily revisit 1.0450. And if that level doesn’t hold? Get ready to dust off those parity memes. Yes, I’m talking 1.0000, the big, scary, psychological level where everyone suddenly remembers how to panic. 😱
But hey, let’s not stop there. The lower boundary of the larger downtrend is lurking below 0.9900, and if the bears get really hungry, that’s where they’ll feast. 🍴
The Sarcastic Silver Lining: What Would It Take to Flip Bullish?
Oh, you want bullish scenarios? That’s cute. 😏 Here’s what would need to happen:
The euro suddenly gets a personality transplant and decides it’s worth something.
The USD forgets it’s the global reserve currency and takes a nap.
A miracle. Like, divine intervention-level miracle.
But seriously, unless EUR/USD breaks above 1.0600 with conviction (and by conviction, I mean a rally that doesn’t immediately fall apart), the bears are still in charge.
Final Thoughts: Trade Smart or Get Wrecked 💀
Look, the writing’s on the wall. EUR/USD is in a downtrend, the flags are flapping, and the bears are sharpening their claws. This isn’t the time to play hero and try to catch a bottom. Instead, let the trend do its thing, wait for the flag to break, and ride the wave lower. 🌊
And hey, if it does hit parity, at least we’ll have something to talk about at the next market meltdown party. 🎉 Until then, keep those stop-losses tight, and don’t forget: the trend might be your friend, but it’s also got a dark sense of humor.
Catch you next time, traders. George out. 🎤
#EURUSD 4HEURUSD 4-Hour Analysis
The EURUSD pair is forming a head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart, which is typically a bearish reversal signal. However, in this case, the price action suggests a potential invalidation of the pattern, favoring a bullish breakout scenario. If the neckline resistance is broken, it could provide a buy opportunity.
Technical Outlook:
Pattern: Head and Shoulders (Potential Breakout)
Forecast: Bullish (Buy Opportunity)
Entry Strategy: Enter a buy position upon a confirmed breakout above the neckline resistance with strong bullish momentum.
Traders should monitor for bullish confirmation such as a breakout candlestick with increased volume or indicators like MACD signaling upward momentum. Proper risk management is crucial, with stop-loss orders placed below the neckline and profit targets set at the next resistance levels.
EURUSD Trading Journal EURUSD Trading Journal
Dec 9
Marco 1am
In Asia price lowers taking out noted equal lows coming to the previous weeks dealing range CE. Prices creates a displacement with a FVG at 57 min candle.
With sell side liquidity taken price breaks structure at 1:03 candle comes down to touch the 50% of the FVG and takes off.
Exit at the FVG.
US Tariffs: Deflationary Risk for Europe?EURUSD faces a crucial week, marked by key economic events and trade tensions. As US protectionist policies under President-elect Donald Trump could intensify deflationary pressures in Europe.
Impact of U.S. tariffs
While tariffs are often associated with inflation, in Europe they could have the opposite effect due to limited exposure to U.S. imports and their indirect impact on growth and employment. U.S. imports account for only 10% of the total in the Eurozone, with consumer goods barely reaching 6%, limiting the direct impact on prices. However, a 10% across-the-board tariff could reduce economic growth in the Eurozone by 0.3%, affecting employment and wages in key sectors such as manufacturing. On the export side, lower demand for European goods from the U.S. and China could deepen economic problems, although the eurozone previously benefited from the reorientation of global trade. In addition, previous trade disputes showed that a surge in Chinese imports into Europe contributed to disinflationary pressures.
ECB meeting this Thursday
The European Central Bank (ECB) will address a complicated environment of high uncertainty this Thursday, with trade tensions and signs of economic weakness. While no rate changes are expected, statements on the impact of trade tensions and the growth outlook will be crucial in determining the direction of the euro, the tone of the statements will be key to market expectations. A more cautious stance could weaken the euro, while any hint of optimism could give the currency a slight respite. Monetary policy could remain accommodative if economic projections continue to deteriorate.
German trade balance on Friday
Friday's release of Germany's trade balance will offer a signal on the health of Europe's economic engine. A larger surplus could support the euro, but an unexpected deficit, combined with tariff concerns, would reinforce negative sentiment about the eurozone economy.
Between trade tensions and macroeconomic data, EUR/USD could experience high volatility this week, reflecting growing concerns about the European economic outlook.
Progress on the Mercosur-EU agreement
This weekend, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, concluded a free trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union. The first attempt was formally launched in 1999, in negotiations that began as part of a broader cooperation framework established in 1995 (Framework Agreement on Interregional Cooperation). The agreement did not close despite looking promising on its last occasion as it faced multiple interruptions over the years due to disagreements in key areas such as agricultural products, industrial market access, environmental rules and labor rights. After intermittent negotiations, a preliminary agreement was announced in 2019, although its implementation is still pending due to debates over environmental issues. This time the agreement has generated very explosive messages from the Spanish agricultural camp and full opposition from Emmanuel Macron, the current main drivers being Germany and Spain. If finalized, it could boost trade and offer economic respite to both regions. A favorable agreement would strengthen European exports to Latin America, offsetting some of the negative effects of trade tensions with the US.
Technical Aspect
Looking at the 1H. chart, since December 9-10 the market has made a strong upward price recovery rally, with very high trading volume on the current trading day to the upside. The directionality of the euro seems to be trying to recover 1.05996 with the current price at 1.05641. The moving average is determining a possible opening in an upward direction, despite the checkpoint being around 1.05241. RSI is currently in its middle zone at 52.77%.
In this environment full of uncertainties, EURUSD could experience high volatility, reflecting the interplay between trade challenges, ECB decisions and the potential breakthrough in the Mercosur-EU treaty.
Ion Jauregui - Activtrades Analyst
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EURUSD Short - 9 DecEURUSD London Session took out Asian High, now poised for downward move to for new low.
M15 Entry. Let's see how it goes.
1:7RR
EURUSD - LongNothing but pure price action. Clean charts are the best charts.
Only thing you need are levels.
EURUSDKey Observations:
Support and Resistance Zones:
There is a clearly established support zone around 1.0500, which coincides with prior lows and strong buying activity.
Resistance levels are seen around 1.0600 (immediate resistance) and higher at 1.0700 if bullish momentum builds.
Trend Analysis:
The daily chart indicates a downtrend, but recent consolidation around the 1.0500 zone suggests potential for a reversal or a corrective move upward.
On lower timeframes (15m, 30m, 1h), there is consolidation within the range of 1.0500-1.0550.
Indicators:
RSI: RSI levels below 40 indicate bearish pressure, but potential divergence could suggest an upcoming bullish move.
MACD: The MACD shows minimal momentum, indicating a consolidation phase.
Moving Averages:
The price is below the 200 EMA on higher timeframes, reinforcing the bearish structure.
On shorter timeframes, the 50 EMA and 200 EMA are nearing a crossover, which could hint at bullish momentum in the short term.
Strategy and Recommendations:
Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout
Entry: Consider buying if the price breaks above 1.0550 with strong volume.
Targets:
Target 1: 1.0600 (immediate resistance).
Target 2: 1.0700 (next resistance zone if momentum sustains).
Stop Loss: Below 1.0480 to account for potential fakeouts.
Scenario 2: Bearish Continuation
Entry: Sell if the price decisively breaks below 1.0500 with increased volume.
Targets:
Target 1: 1.0450 (next support level).
Target 2: 1.0400 (key psychological level).
Stop Loss: Above 1.0550 to protect against reversals.
Recommended Approach:
Short-Term Traders: Focus on breakouts above 1.0550 or below 1.0500 for clear momentum trades.
Swing Traders: Await confirmation on daily candles around the 1.0500 support zone to determine if a reversal or continuation occurs.
Risk Management: Always ensure a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2 and limit exposure to avoid over-leverage in volatile conditions.
Important week for EURUSD
On Friday, EURUSD tested the resistance at 1,0610 and bounced back.
Now, the key question is whether this drop will have the strength to continue or if we will see a new bullish move.
Pay attention to the reaction at support levels and watch for a potential higher low.
This week brings significant news that will determine the next direction.
On Wednesday, U.S. inflation data will be released, followed by the ECB interest rate decision on Thursday.
Mastering The Timing Of Trade Exits In Trading Most newbie traders tend to focus on the entry point of a trade, believing that as long as they initiate a position correctly, they can manage their way to a profit later. They often think, “It’s okay if I earn a little; I can always close the trade once the price moves in my favor.” Unfortunately, this mindset often leads to disappointing outcomes. Traders may find themselves either underwhelmed by their gains due to greed—thinking, “Just a little longer, and I’ll secure my profits”—or missing the exit altogether, resulting in a break-even scenario.
The situation becomes even trickier when prices move against the trader. Many cling to the hope of a miraculous turnaround, refusing to acknowledge their losses, and instead, they adjust their stop-loss orders, convinced that the market must eventually rebound. This often leads to further losses as they watch their deposits dwindle. To avoid these pitfalls, it's crucial to understand when to close a trade for maximum benefit, as explored in this post.
📍 Strategic Approaches to Closing Trades
Closing a trade effectively requires timing it neither too early nor too late. Premature exits can lead to missed opportunities for profit, while waiting too long can result in significant losses.
📍 When to Close Trades?
• Identifying Reversal Patterns: Recognizing patterns that indicate a reversal is essential. For instance, during an uptrend, buyers eventually taper off because prices become too high. Those who bought at the onset may begin selling, and if a pinbar forms followed by a bearish engulfing model, this is a clear signal to close before a downturn.
• Combining Signals from Indicators: Utilize multiple indicators to gauge the market trend. If trend indicators show a downturn and oscillators indicate overbought conditions, it may be time to close a long position. Patterns and signals should work in concert for the best results.
• Following Risk Management Strategies: Tailor your exit strategy to your risk management plan. Strategies could include setting a take-profit level at 50-60% of daily volatility or maintaining a risk-to-reward ratio of 1:3.
• Using Risk Management Calculations: This involves observing the pip value and the 1.0-2.0% rule. For example, if your account has a balance of $1,000, limit your loss on any trade to $100 based on the volume of the trade. Accordingly, your take profit should be 2%-3% or more.
• Monitoring Candlestick Patterns: A shift in the strength of candlestick bodies can indicate a forthcoming reversal. If you see a consistent decline in candlestick sizes during a price breakout, this can be a cue for an imminent trend shift.
• Paying Attention to Key Levels: Many traders place pending orders around key support and resistance levels. Understanding that price may not reach these levels can inform your take-profit and stop-loss placement.
• Before Major News Releases: Anticipate how significant news might impact the market. Though there may be statistical predictions, volatility can be unpredictable. Closing trades in advance can help manage unexpected market movements.
• At the End of Trading Cycles: Prior to weekends or before the day ends, consider closing positions. This is crucial as weekend events can dramatically shift prices, and exposure over multiple days can incur costs, akin to interest on leverage.
• Rebalancing Investments: In the stock market, periodically analyze portfolio performance, selling off underperforming assets to maintain profitability. This concept can also apply to trading, helping to recalibrate your positions for better outcomes.
📍 Conclusion
Understanding the timing of closing trades is critical for any trader. By applying these strategies and learning from past experience, you can better navigate the complexities of trading and improve your overall profitability.
Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
#eurusd #elliottwave long buy setup wave c 9Dec24 AlternateThis count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
Read The EURUSD MarketLet's Looking at EURUSD Price Actions and Predict the Next Moves and Maybe Finding Some Trade Opportunities, Good Luck With Your Trades <3
EURUSDJust waiting for my zone to make that Retest and SOS, to entry this trade!
Make your own analysis and trust your entry remember always go for TP OR SL. Nothing in between! Just set and let it go!
#EURUSD - 09122024I was more bearish EURUSD last week towards the end of the week. On Friday it made a new high before coming down. Price action points to the downside on daily, though on weekly it is a doji, which IMO could indicate just a consolidation after the previous up move.
I will be looking for downside before any bullish confirmation (that is, could see buyers come in later in the week). For today, a re-test and rejection off the PZ could see a move lower to target 1.0515 and 1.0490.
EURUSD H4 I Bullish Bounce off 61.8?Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling to our buy entry at 1.0536, which is a pullback support that aligns with 61.8% Fibo retracement.
Our take profit will be at 1.0605, an overlap resistance.
The stop loss will be placed at 1.0483, which is a swing low support level.
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EURUSD InsightHello, subscribers!
Great to see you all. Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to like and subscribe!
Key Points:
- The Federal Reserve enters its blackout period.
- Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in November from 6.5% in the previous month, raising expectations for a 50bp rate cut by the Bank of Canada.
- U.S. nonfarm payrolls for November came in at 227,000, surpassing the market forecast of 200,000. The unemployment rate matched expectations at 4.2% but increased from the prior month.
- Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, stated that the Fed is ready to raise rates again if inflation rises.
- The Swiss National Bank sees mixed expectations of a 25bp or 50bp rate cut, while the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep rates on hold.
Major Economic Indicators:
- December 10: Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision, Germany’s November Consumer Price Index (CPI)
- December 11: U.S. November CPI, Bank of Canada rate decision
- December 12: European Central Bank rate decision, U.S. November Producer Price Index (PPI)
- December 13: UK October GDP
EUR/USD Chart Analysis:
EUR/USD climbed to the 1.06000 level but faced resistance and has slightly pulled back. Failure to break through the resistance level suggests a high likelihood of retreating to the 1.04500 level. For this week, the short-term outlook is bearish, but we will adjust our strategy based on the interest rate decisions from major economies.
Bearish drop?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is reacting off the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support level.
Pivot: 1.0603
1st Support: 1.0332
1st Resistance: 1.0780
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Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
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Eur/USD Buy Soon as it hits Take profit , I am going to sell . It has been a long time since my first idea I had to study more about the market so I can trade better. LOL
Heading into 50% Fibonacci resistance?EUR/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.0588
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retraecment.
Stop loss: 1.0629
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 1.0530
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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Trading Signal for EUR/USD for December 9-11, 2024:We could expect EUR/USD to continue rising and thus, cover the gap left at 1.6466. finally, the instrument could reach the 200 EMA around 1.07187. According to the H4 chart, we can see that the euro is overbought, which means that any attempt to continue rising will be seen as an opportunity to sell. Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell the euro below 1.04790. or wait for confirmation above 1.06124. to buy.
