Breakout is sign for New Direction on EUR/USDBreakout is sign for New Direction on EUR/USD, This is not trading advice.
EURUSD trade ideas
EURUSD bounces back higher, benefiting from the dollar's declineEURUSD bounces back higher, benefiting from the dollar's decline
Prediction for 27/2If price maintains the OB as predicted then we'll see a movement up.
Price could remain sideways though too
If we struggle to break highs, theres liquidity below so could be reversed
Now it’s an EU trade war Trump wantsDonald Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on the European Union, bizarrely stating that the 27-member bloc was “formed to screw the United States.”
Without providing further details, he hinted at targeting carmakers, saying, “We have made a decision and we’ll be announcing it very soon.” The EU has vowed to retaliate immediately if the tariffs take effect.
EUR/USD tested resistance around 1.0536 before sellers stepped in around the time of Trump's announcement. The pair remains under pressure, trading below the 50-day EMA, while the 200-day EMA is flattening, offering a potential target besides the 38 and 50% Fibonacci levels on the chart.
EURUSD Bullish Trend!Like I Said it was bullish trend! Look at this trade that i took.... It was awesome!
EURUSD On EURUSD Price respected the zone
Curenty waiting for Change of character on lower time frame
AM Idea- 26/2/2025Price is very hesitant to go bullish so I believe we may have a bearish retracement before a bullish move. I am targeting the bullish OB where there should be liquidity since it has been sitting for a while.
EURUSD Possible TrendLike I show u guys yesterday the trend could be a bullish Trend and it was... So today I think the market could test 50% of the Impulsive trend and turn back to a bullish trend again. We didn't had an Break of Structure on de down side so I'm expecting a New High.
Eurusd chart Anylisis 1Hour check captain Eurusd chart Anylisis 1Hour idea 💡
Trade at own your risk use proper money management
EUR.USD (Y25.P1.E1).Macro overviewHi Traders,
Although this is not a trading strategy, looking at the big picture can enable some conditions to look at the market bullish or bearish.
I don't there is any dispute about this descending wedge. And a breakout would be a means for a long entry.
What might do this is Trump's US financial policy or strategy, to bring the manufactering back to USA, which means he has to devalue the dollar. He can't have both global currency dominance and at the same time, entice manufacturers back to the USA and keep export strong with a strong dollar.
He has an impossible task.
I therefore think this weakening of the dollar is inevitable and the rush to gold as well will serve this descending wedge breakout.
Europe will likely hurt as well as their currency gains against the dollar as high price exports will be beaten by the likes of China.
Anyway, these are all assumptions.
As to trading entry, I will look for a a sign of strength before looking to flip away from the dollar and into Euro, but gold is better.
All the best,
S.SAri
Smaller TF or micro structure to look for.
a) current wave is wave 2 or
b) part of a longer accumulation wave of 5 counts = Elliott 5 wave pattern.
PM Idea- 24/2Price has slowed down near to the sunday market open.
Gap has been filled on 5m tf.
If there is higher lows, I'll consider an entry
Have to keep in mind tho we are currently overall bearish
update - Wave 4 triangle.... finishing up C wave?The euro appears to be possibly finishing up a c wave of a triangle possibly ending at 10570-80
My original thought was we were we were concluding the E wave of the triangle. A push higher toward 10570-80 would make me alter the count to a conclusion of this C wave.
"MEGA - Make Europe Great Again "The technical formation is cristal clear. Look at the 4hr char.
Fundamentals are not clear as the technicals, but smart money is posioned themself long ago and constantly buying reasonable dips, since its a probability game now.
Is the Ukraine war will end in the comming months Yes: 60%
Europe inflation is under control? Yes 80%
ECB will cut on th next meeting? No 60%
Will europe profit from the end of the war trough reconstruction? 50%
Germany elections are done coalition will be formed and will function. ( German politicians already have done a self-revising process and they wont fail.)
USA will impose severe tarrifs on European Union: 10%-(chance)
Is German economy bottling out: Yes altough france needs to join for party. Italy is italy : We love them and feed them.
USA: Is the economy strong as they claim?
In the next post we gonna have look at it. Just a hint: How the GDP calculated and what the USA goverment wants in future. Every actions is effectecting the GDP calculations and not on the most positive way.
to be continued.
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 25, 2025 EURUSDThe rise in US inflation data last week triggered a new wave of risk aversion among investors. Now their attention is focused on the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data, which is expected later this week. Traders are hoping that the rise in US core inflation will quickly fade early in the year and not lead to a new protracted battle with ‘transitory’ inflation that will be too high for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to go for a rate cut. Market participants expecting a faster pace of Fed rate cuts in 2025 are already feeling the pressure as US President Donald Trump tries to ignite a global trade war. In addition, another spike in inflation could extinguish any remaining hopes of a rate cut. On Monday, President Trump repeated his threats of imposing high tariffs on Canada and Mexico, warning that the tariffs were still due to take effect ‘next month’ after he recently caved in to tariff pressure and granted deferrals to nearly all countries he has targeted for import taxes on their citizens.
German consumer price index (CPI) data as well as retail sales activity figures are also due out on Friday. The German data, which is an indicator of EU-wide data, is likely to attract the attention of some traders on Friday, but the key factor influencing the market will be PCE inflation in the US.
Trade recommendation: SELL 1.0500, SL 1.0550, TP 1.0400
EURUSD Intra/Swing idea 25/02/2025EURUSD is still struggling to confirm bearish momentum. Despite closing bearish yesterday with a 56-pip wick, we didn’t get a close below Friday’s low for true confirmation. Today has started bullish, and we could see a retest of yesterday’s wick. If we fail to close bearish below both Friday and yesterday’s wicks, momentum could shift bullish, especially with a body close above the yellow zone. That being said, the safest sells remain at 1.04271 and 1.02500, while buys only become valid with a break and close above 1.05300.
EUR/USD Faces Key Resistance Amid Liquidity Grab ExpectationsEUR/USD is undergoing a pullback after reaching a one-month high of 1.0528, closing at 1.04658 on February 24, marking a 0.22% decline from the previous day. The euro's recent strength was driven by post-election stability in Germany, where centrist parties formed a coalition government, boosting market confidence. However, bullish momentum has stalled near key resistance levels around 1.0530 and 1.0560, with the pair struggling to sustain gains above the 100-day simple moving average.
From a technical standpoint, the price is approaching a significant supply zone, where a liquidity grab could occur before a potential downside move. Resistance in this area aligns with broader concerns over Germany's economic outlook and coalition negotiations, which could weaken the euro’s appeal. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar, despite recent weakness due to declining consumer confidence, remains in a favorable position for a short-term recovery, adding further pressure on EUR/USD.
If the pair fails to break through resistance, a rejection could trigger a decline toward 1.0400, with further downside potential extending to 1.0283. Conversely, if buyers manage to push past the liquidity zone, the next upside targets lie at 1.0530 and 1.0560.
EURUSD 25 Feb 2025 W9 -Intraday Analysis- US Consumer ConfidenceThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 25 Feb 2025 W9 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Today economic news:
US : Consumer Confidence
The market still in the same sentiment detailed in my Weekly Analysis . Below a summary:
Short-Term Bias: Cautiously bullish for EUR/USD, driven by optimism over delayed tariffs, geopolitical progress, and hopes for softer inflation.
Key Risks:
A hot PCE report reviving Fed hawkishness.
Sudden tariff escalations or breakdowns in peace talks.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish (Reached Swing Extreme Demand)
🔹INT Bearish (Reached Extreme Supply)
🔹INT-INT Bullish (Reached EQ (50%)
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH.
🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move):
Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal)
Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal)
🔹With this week open, price continued Bullish as expected and created another ii-BOS after which price started PB for the ii-BOS and reached the recent Demand which we could see the next Bullish move from.
3️⃣
🔹Still expectation is set to continue Bullish targeting the Weak Swing High as long LTFs holds Bullish structures. Also, In my mind I’m not neglecting the current Bearish 4H INT structure and we already reached that structure extreme.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Reached Swing EQ (50%)/Discount
🔹Swing Continuation Phase
2️⃣
🔹After the 15m Bullish BOS, price initiated the Swing PB Phase.
🔹Price reached the 15m Swing EQ (50%) and turned Bullish after the INT structure changed to Bullish iBOS indicating that the Swing PB maybe over and we are currently starting the Swing Bullish continuation Phase.
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is set to continue Bullish with the 15m / 4H INT & Swing are all Bullish.
🔹Price targets are 15m Weak INT High and ultimately 15m Weak Swing High.
EUR/USD (30M) – Waiting for a BreakoutHi Traders ! ,The price is ranging between 1.04688 and 1.04819. I'm waiting for a clear breakout to enter:
Buy (long): If it breaks 1.04730 and confirms, it could target 1.04819 and then 1.05050.
RSI is currently at 52.73, showing neutral momentum. A push above 60 would strengthen a bullish setup.
Sell (short): If it drops below 1.04688, it could reach 1.04557 and 1.04400.
If RSI falls below 40, it would confirm bearish momentum.
I prefer to wait for confirmations before taking a position.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk before making any trading decisions.
EURUSD in a corrective wave after completing the wave EURUSD in a corrective wave after completing the wave
Euro surges to 2.618, benefiting from dollar decline Euro surges to 2.618, benefiting from dollar decline
