EURUSD trade ideas
EURUSD – DAILY FORECAST Q3 | W31 | D29 | Y25📊 EURUSD – DAILY FORECAST
Q3 | W31 | D29 | Y25
Daily Forecast 🔍📅
Here’s a short diagnosis of the current chart setup 🧠📈
Higher time frame order blocks have been identified — these are our patient points of interest 🎯🧭.
It’s crucial to wait for a confirmed break of structure 🧱✅ before forming a directional bias.
This keeps us disciplined and aligned with what price action is truly telling us.
📈 Risk Management Protocols
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Max 1% risk per trade
Only execute at pre-identified levels
Use alerts, not emotion
Stick to your RR plan — minimum 1:2
🧠 You’re not paid for how many trades you take, you’re paid for how well you manage risk.
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"Trade what the market gives, not what your ego wants."
Stay mechanical. Stay focused. Let the probabilities work.
FX:EURUSD
EURUSDUS reaching trade deal with other countries and this and given to the index rally. We are taking an opportunity in the retracement
EURUSD Is Bearish! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 1.166.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 1.159.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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EUR/USD Technical OutlookToday we’re focusing on the euro versus the US dollar, which has recently experienced a sharp sell-off. The move appears directional and is now approaching a key support zone, defined by:
• The April high at 1.1573
• The June low at 1.1556
• The 55-day moving average at 1.1536
A daily close below 1.1536 would be required to confirm further downside momentum.
At present, the pair looks technically vulnerable, having reversed from the top of a 3-year rising channel, with weekly RSI indicators suggesting potential exhaustion. Channel resistance stands around 1.1850.
🔽 Should support fail, we could be looking at a measured move toward the 1.1300 area as a minimum downside target.
This is a critical juncture — we’ll be watching closely for confirmation in the coming sessions.
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The Day AheadKey Data Releases
US:
JOLTS (June): Provides insight into labor market slack; a tighter reading could delay Fed rate cuts.
Advance Goods Trade Balance & Wholesale Inventories: Important for Q2 GDP revisions.
Consumer Confidence (July): A strong print would reflect continued consumer resilience, a weak one could pressure cyclicals.
Dallas Fed Services Activity (July): Regional business sentiment.
FHFA House Price Index (May): Monitors housing market health.
UK:
Consumer Credit & M4 (June): Key for BoE rate path.
France: Q2 total jobseekers – labor market stress indicator.
Sweden: June GDP indicator – recession risk watch.
Central Bank Focus
ECB Consumer Expectations (June): Watch for shifts in inflation expectations that could impact eurozone policy outlook.
Corporate Earnings
A major earnings deluge with over 25 high-profile companies, highlighting:
Tech/Payments: Visa, PayPal, Spotify, Electronic Arts
Consumer/Healthcare: Procter & Gamble, UnitedHealth, Starbucks, Mondelez, AstraZeneca, Merck & Co
Industrials/Travel: Boeing, UPS, Royal Caribbean, Stellantis
Luxury/Retail: Kering, L’Oreal
Financials: Barclays, Corning, Keyence
Sentiment hinges on guidance outlooks and margin commentary, particularly as investors watch for signs of consumer fatigue or pricing power erosion.
Auctions
US 2-year FRN & 7-year Notes: Will test demand amid shifting Fed expectations; weak uptake could push yields higher.
Conclusion for Today's Trading
Today is data- and earnings-heavy, setting up for potentially elevated volatility. The US JOLTS and consumer confidence data will be pivotal for shaping Fed expectations. Meanwhile, a massive cross-sector earnings lineup could lead to stock-specific dispersion, especially in tech, healthcare, and consumer sectors. Treasury auctions may steer yield curves and weigh on equity sentiment if demand is weak.
Trading Bias: Expect range-bound to choppy action in broader indices, with stock rotation driven by earnings surprises. Stay alert to macro data prints, particularly if they shift views on a September Fed move.
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EURUSD Analysis : Rejection at Demand – Institutional Buy Setup🔍 Technical Storyline – What the Chart Tells Us:
🔸 1. Previous Bearish Structure – Descending Channel:
Price has been moving within a well-respected bearish channel, signifying structured sell-side liquidity control.
This channel served as a trap zone, where retail sellers were induced while institutions accumulated buy-side positions below the range.
The controlled movement inside the channel ended with a breakout to the upside, signaling a disruption in bearish control.
🔸 2. QFL Zone Formation – Manipulation & Liquidity Grab:
QFL (Quasimodo Failure Level) is evident in two phases here:
The first QFL acts as a reaction point where the market dropped to test demand and rallied aggressively.
The second QFL near the highs shows price swept previous liquidity before dumping, hinting at institutional profit-taking and possible redistribution into discount areas.
🔸 3. Central Reversal Zone (CRZ):
Price reversed sharply from this CRZ, which acted as a major supply level. The CRZ marks the top of the manipulation range.
This was a liquidity sweep targeting trapped long positions that entered too late at the highs.
🔸 4. Demand Revisit + Positive Rejection Pattern (Current Phase):
Price has now reached the MMC-validated demand zone, which previously launched a strong bullish move.
The long lower wick in the latest candle shows buyer absorption, suggesting early signs of a Positive Reversal Pattern.
This area is marked with high probability for bullish continuation, as it aligns with both technical support and smart money logic.
💡 Trading Plan & Market Mindset:
🔸 📈 Bullish Scenario (High-Probability Play):
Wait for bullish confirmation, such as:
Bullish engulfing on 1H/4H
Break of minor intraday structure (e.g., break of internal LH)
Strong volume surge from the zone
Entry zone: Within the demand block – 1.15500 to 1.15750
Stop-loss: Just below the demand zone (1.15250)
Target 1 (TP1): 1.16500 – minor intraday resistance
Target 2 (TP2): 1.17500–1.18000 – retest of QFL high and Central Reversal Zone
🔸 ❌ Bearish Invalidator:
A 4H candle close below 1.15250 would break the demand zone structure.
Invalidation of MMC reversal – move toward deeper liquidity (1.14500–1.14800)
🧠 Trader’s Psychology & Institutional Mindset:
Institutions often induce price spikes to trap both buyers and sellers.
This entire structure reflects classic accumulation → manipulation → distribution → reaccumulation.
The retest of the original demand zone allows institutions to re-enter at discount before pushing price back toward the highs.
“In MMC, patterns are not just shapes – they are footprints of institutional intent.”
EURUSD Breakdown Bearish Trend Continues or Demand Zone Reversal🔍 Chart Breakdown: EUR/USD (30-min TF)
Trend Overview:
Previous Trend: Bullish channel structure (highlighted in blue).
Current Momentum: Strong bearish breakdown following a clear range phase.
The chart shifted from consolidation → breakdown → aggressive bearish continuation.
🧱 Key Technical Highlights:
1. Bearish Breakout:
Price broke below the ascending trendline and exited the ranging box, confirming a bearish shift.
Multiple Breakdown Retests (highlighted with red arrows) confirming structure failures and validating resistance zones.
2. Range Zone (Distribution Phase):
Price moved sideways within the green rectangle (“RANGE”), indicating accumulation/distribution before the selloff.
The breakdown from this range confirmed bearish momentum.
3. Demand Zone Test (Now in Play):
Price is approaching/hovering around a demand zone (green box) marked as a critical support.
Buyers may react here, offering two key scenarios:
Bounce back to retest resistance around 1.1600 (highlighted).
Breakdown below demand, leading to further decline toward next major support zones (1.15354 and 1.15040).
4. Price Reaction Zones:
🔴 Resistance zones are clearly marked where breakdown retests occurred.
🟢 Demand zone with bounce-or-break logic provides directional bias.
🧭 Potential Scenarios (Marked on Chart):
✅ Bullish Case:
If demand zone holds, expect:
A corrective rally toward 1.1600–1.1620.
Watch for rejection signals here (could be ideal for re-entering shorts).
❌ Bearish Case:
If breakdown below green demand zone occurs, targets:
1.1535 (local structure support)
1.1504 (next confluence level; possible long-term bounce area)
📈 Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: Price is well below the cloud, confirming bearish control.
Structure: Lower highs & lower lows = confirmed bearish trend.
EURUSD - Head and ShouldersHello Traders !
The EURUSD failed to create a new higher high!
The price formed a head and shoulders pattern.
Currently, the neckline is broken!
So, I expect a bearish move📉
________________
TARGET: 1.15750🎯
EURUSD Buy OfferThere is a Demand area in Daily time frame which I've specified on the chart.
Can enter right now ...
EURUSD likely to have pullbackEURUSD formed a 2 long Big bearish candles, now it is at the support level. It will pullback to fib 0.5 and then further declines from trendline resistance.
EURUSD : Status @ 25/7Direction: Sell
Signal triggered: 25/7/2025
Stop when:
a) Stop Loss @ 1.1790; or if
b) Buy signal triggered
Action:
Sell the rally
Good luck.
P/S: It seems that 1.1790 is a good resistance line as anticipated. The price may reach as low as 1.1500, which will serve as the next support level. Then we wait there for the next sell or maybe buy signal!
And a BIG congratulation to those who sold @ D - 1.1780 :-)
DeGRAM | EURUSD breakout📊 Technical Analysis
● Two successive rejections at the upper-channel/long-term trend-cap (red arrows) printed bearish engulfings; price has slipped back under 1.1687 minor support, breaking the July micro up-trend.
● Momentum now points to the channel mid-line ≈1.1650; clearing it exposes the lower rail / May pivot 1.1594, in line with the projected swing depth.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Hot US Q2-GDP and an upside surprise in core-PCE lifted 2-yr Treasury yields, reviving dollar demand, while ECB sources signalled no urgency to hike further after soft July PMIs.
✨ Summary
Short 1.1680-1.1700; hold below 1.1687 targets 1.1650 ▶ 1.1595. Invalidate on a 4 h close above 1.1750.
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EURUSD - STRONGEST DECLINE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHSEURUSD - STRONGEST DECLINE FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS
EURUSD has lost 1.32% yesterday on the U.S. - E.U. trade deal. Experts suggest that the relief felt by the United States and the European Union upon reaching a trade agreement has been overshadowed by worries about the potential economic harm caused by a 15% tariff on EU imports. The dollar has recently experienced a positive trend, and this trend could continue if U.S. economic data, including Friday's employment figures, indicates a strong economy. The investors who had previously made substantial bets on the euro's appreciation are now reversing their positions, causing the euro to weaken.
Technically, the asset broke down the local trendline and is currently trying to rebound from the local support level of 1.15800. RSI tells us that the asset is oversold, so the most possible outcome here is the EURUSD to rebound from current level, retest former trendline and continues downwards movement.
Has the Bleeding STOPPED?Yesterday witnessed a great deal of unidirectional push on major USD crosses. The EURUSD was not an exception. With the DXY strengthening for the most yesterday, the ripple effect on all USD crosses was bound to happen.
We were looking at the market for the most yesterday, trying to find a potential reversal point. While it seemed unclear, we were still able to narrow our probability into a rather slim perspective and spectrum.
Looking at the market right now, i will say that our reverssal should begin to show up any time soon.
I can already see reversals on some other USD crosses.
Price on the EURUSD is currently at a critical zone. Even though not an anticipated zone, price can see some reversal in that zone.
We still wait to see clear sign and confirmation of the reversal on the EURUSD, but for now, we still keep fingers crossed
EURUSD H1 I Bullish Bounce Off Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is testing our buy entry at 1.15782, which is a swing low support.
Our take profit will be at 1.1629, which is a pullback resistance level.
The stop loss will be placed at 1.1547, below the swing low support.
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EURUSDTrade Opportunity: EURUSD – Short Position Setup
We have identified a potential selling opportunity on the EURUSD pair, supported by current price structure, momentum shifts, and broader market dynamics. EURUSD is currently facing strong resistance near the 1.15850–1.15900 zone, which has rejected price multiple times in the recent past.
The pair appears to be forming a lower high on the 1H and 4H charts, indicating weakening bullish momentum and the potential start of a downward move.
Entering the trade at 1.15862 allows us to capitalize on early signs of bearish reversal before a possible larger drop unfolds.
The first target at 1.15610 captures a minor support level and could be reached swiftly if bearish pressure persists.
The second target at 1.15480 aligns with the base of a previous consolidation range, offering additional confirmation of downward structure.
The third target at 1.15320 reaches deeper into the last demand zone and could be hit if bearish sentiment intensifies.
The stop loss at 1.15950 is placed just above the recent swing high to protect the trade while keeping the risk tight and manageable.
EURUSD BuyPrice did a ‘LG’ off the ‘POI’(looking left). Daily cycle not fully complete. Price should take out asia high.
EUR/USD at a Turning Point:Rally or Trap for the Bulls?📉 Technical Analysis
Price has decisively broken out of the descending channel highlighted in recent weeks. The weekly support zone between 1.1540 – 1.1580 is holding, triggering a significant technical reaction. The weekly RSI has entered oversold territory, suggesting a potential short-term reversal.
Key Support: 1.1530–1.1580 (currently reacting)
Key Resistance: 1.1720–1.1780 (inefficiency & supply zone)
Base Case: Potential rebound toward 1.1720–1.1750 before next structural decision
🧠 Sentiment Analysis
82% of retail traders are long, with an average entry at 1.1635
Only 18% are short, a clear minority
This extreme imbalance suggests downside pressure may persist to flush out weak long hands before a genuine reversal takes place.
📊 COT (Commitment of Traders)
USD Index:
Non-Commercials increased both long (+663) and short (+449) positions → uncertain stance but slight USD strengthening
EUR Futures:
Non-Commercials increased long (+6,284) and short (+8,990) positions, but net increase favors the bears
This shift signals a bearish turn in sentiment among large speculators, indicating short-term downward pressure.
📈 Seasonality
In July, EUR/USD historically tends to rise, but:
This year’s price action is underperforming the seasonal pattern, showing relative weakness
August is historically flat to slightly bearish
Seasonality does not currently support a strong bullish continuation
✅ Strategic Conclusion
Current Bias: Bearish-neutral (with short-term bullish bounce expected)
A technical rebound toward 1.1720–1.1750 is likely (liquidity void + RSI bounce + retail imbalance)
However, 1.1720–1.1750 is a key supply zone to monitor for fresh shorts, in line with:
Dollar-supportive COT data
Overcrowded long retail positioning
Weak seasonal context
🧭 Operational Plan:
Avoid holding longs above 1.1750 without macro confirmation
Monitor price action between 1.1720–1.1750 for potential short re-entry
Clean breakout above 1.1780 → shift bias to neutral/bullish
EUR/USD 4-Hour Chart Analysis4-hour performance of the Euro/U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) currency pair, showing a recent decline from a high of 1.15853 to 1.15845, with a -0.04% change. Key levels include a "Buy" signal at 1.5 and a "Sell" signal at 1.15838. The chart highlights a significant drop with a shaded support zone around 1.16590 to 1.15845, indicating potential trading opportunities or resistance levels as of July 29, 2025.
EURUSD 3:1 Intraday SnipeThe H4 Doji on resistance
The downtrend on H4 H1 and M15
We are just shorting to next support
With a stop above m15 / h1 resistance nearest one - pretty solid also
3:1 Risk Reward
75%-80% odds (my rank)
EUR/USD: Follow the yellow brick roadHello traders
I have utilized MTF(Multiple Time Frame) analysis for this idea in addition to the current fundamental environment.
The previous weekly levels can often be a good starting point for where this widely traded pair may head next.
On these charts, price has failed ahead of the weekly close of 1.1775. So far.
Fundamentally, the details of the USA/Euro Zone trade deal or framework for a deal, are not very clear yet. Which industries will be hit the hardest in Europe? Fine French wines, Stinky Swiss cheese, Monster M cars from BMW? Take your pick. In my mind, as a consumer, both the USA and the Old Country have significant strengths in different arenas.
As American consumers, we are now going to be forced to some degree to become price conscious one way or the other. Or maybe not. I'll still be sipping California, French or New Zealand wines.
As for the economy:
These "deals" DJT has made so far with Japan and the Euro Zone, once again, smacks of a strong arm policy, more than a reasonable and fair agreement. Time will be the deciding factor. As we have seen over time, trade agreements mean nothing. The WTO is a toothless institution.
The IEEPA ruling heads for the Federal Appeals Court this week and no doubt all the way to the Supreme Court.
However, based on the available information, I am observing the charts by looking back at how the markets react at the Sunday open. It tends to retest weekly OCHL levels first.
As for the USA/EURO zone deal, if it plays out according to news reports, it seems to be logical that a lot of Euros will have to be converted to USD.
But feel free to correct me.
Therefore, until Wednesday and the FOMC presser, I am short EUR/USD.
Best of luck.
EURUSD may fall, but it's all about the FOMC DecisionEURUSD may fall, but it's all about the FOMC Decision
During the first 2 weeks of July, EURUSD fell from 1.18000 to 1.1550 and then the price rose again due to renewed tariffs.
Trump's comments regarding Powell and tariffs, according to which the EU and the US may reach an agreement soon, renewed the strength of EURUSD.
However, this time it is more related to the FOMC. If the FED cuts rates, EURUSD can drop further. When they didn't cut rates, the USD was weak or didn't move at all.
Let's see.
If Powell makes any surprises this time, EURUSD could fall, as shown in the chart, from 1.1800 to 1.1550, which is almost 250 pips lower.
Key support zones: 1.1660 and 1.1580
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
