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Lingrid | EURUSD Promising REVERSAL Pattern At the DEMAND zoneFX:EURUSD reached a resistance zone and is struggling to extend downward, showing signs of a potential reversal. An inverse head and shoulders pattern indicates that bears may not be ready to push the market lower at this time, signaling potential strength among buyers. On the daily timeframe, the recent price action shows a fake breakout of the previous demand zone around the 1.04500 level, suggesting that buyers might still be in control and that the downside momentum may be weakening. If the market continues to form this reversal pattern, it is likely that we could see a pullback to retest the resistance zone around the 1.07000. IF price reject this resistance level and hold above the support formed by the recent demand zone, it could pave the way for a further upward movement. My goal is the resistance zone around 1.06140 Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
Long
by Lingrid
12
EU is ready to dropHi traders, Last week EU made a bigger ABC pullback (orange) to the 38.2 fib retracement of the last impulsive wave. It's clear that it is a correction and not a leading diagonal. Price broke structure but didn't close above it, so the swing low gets weak and I expect it to break. Last Friday it started the drop already and changed the orderflow to bearish. I don't expect it to go up once more into the higher Daily FVG's. Next week we could see a small correction up and a big drop to break the swing low. After that price could drop to the lower Daily FVG to finish wave 5 (black). Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a small correction up on a lower timeframe and trade shorts. If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost or respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! Eduwave
Short
by EduwaveTrading
EURUSD Under Pressure! SELL! My dear friends, My technical analysis for EURUSD is below: The market is trading on 1.0566 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 1.0523 Recommended Stop Loss - 1.0592 About Used Indicators: A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
1
EUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further WeaknessEUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further Weakness The EUR/USD currency pair faces mounting pressure as economic data and central bank commentary from both sides of the Atlantic paint contrasting pictures. With the year-end approaching, traders are navigating through a mix of historical trends, updated macroeconomic indicators, and shifting monetary policy expectations. --- Eurozone: Fragility Persists Industrial and Consumer Weakness Germany's 1.5% MoM decline in industrial orders, though marginally better than expected, reflects ongoing struggles in Europe's largest economy. Additionally, retail sales in the Eurozone fell by 0.5% MoM, highlighting a weak consumer spending environment that continues to drag on growth prospects. PMI and GDP Concerns The Composite PMI edged up slightly to 48.3, but contraction persists, underscoring the broader economic challenges in the region. Italy's downward revision of GDP forecasts further dampens sentiment, increasing the likelihood of more accommodative measures from the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB's Dovish Tilt ECB policymakers, including Robert Holzmann, have signaled a potential rate cut in December, reflecting a shift towards easing amid the Eurozone's persistent economic struggles. However, political instability, such as France's no-confidence vote against President Macron, adds another layer of uncertainty to the region's economic outlook. --- United States: Resilience Amid Inflation Challenges Economic and Labor Market Data The U.S. economy continues to show signs of resilience. Durable goods orders rose 0.3% and construction spending increased by 0.4%, aligning with expectations. Despite a slight drop in the ISM Services PMI to 52.1, the economy remains in expansion mode. The labor market also remains a pillar of strength: - Nonfarm Payrolls: 227k (forecast: 220k, previous: 12k, revised: 36k). - Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (forecast: 4.1%, previous: 4.1%). - Average Earnings YoY: 4.0% (forecast: 3.9%, previous: 4.0%). While layoffs have ticked up slightly, strong payroll growth and stable wages suggest continued labor market robustness, albeit with signs of gradual cooling. Fed's Monetary Policy Path Fed officials, including John Williams and Mary Daly, have hinted at potential rate cuts in 2024, but progress on inflation appears to have stalled, as noted by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman. Market sentiment is shifting rapidly—traders now see an 85% probability of a Fed rate cut this month, up from 67% before the November jobs report. Short-term interest-rate futures have surged, reflecting growing expectations of a dovish pivot. However, the Fed remains cautious, balancing inflationary risks with economic stability. --- Inflation and Consumer Sentiment The University of Michigan's latest data reinforces the U.S. economy's resilience: - 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 2.9% (forecast: 2.7%, previous: 2.6%). - Consumer Sentiment Prelim: 74.0 (forecast: 73.2, previous: 71.8). Elevated inflation expectations and improving consumer sentiment contrast with the Eurozone's gloomy outlook, further strengthening the dollar's appeal. --- EUR/USD Outlook: Bearish Bias Remains Intact Despite historical trends that favor the euro in December, the current economic backdrop presents significant challenges for sustained appreciation. Weak Eurozone data and a dovish ECB stand in stark contrast to the U.S. economy's relative stability and the Fed's measured approach. Key Factors Driving EUR/USD: 1. Diverging Data: Strong U.S. labor and inflation figures versus weak Eurozone performance. 2. Monetary Policy: Fed's cautious flexibility versus ECB's dovish signals. 3. Sentiment Shift: Rising probability of U.S. rate cuts but with a stronger baseline economy. While seasonal trends may provide temporary relief for the euro, the broader trajectory points downward. Traders should focus on macroeconomic developments and central bank guidance as the primary drivers for the pair in the coming weeks. The euro's path to recovery remains steep, with the U.S. dollar maintaining the upper hand in the current environment.
Short
by InvestMate
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 6, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar has demonstrated strong upward momentum during this week's trading session. It retreated to our designated support level, Mean Support at 1.049. Then, it bounced back vigorously to retest the significant resistance level, Mean Resistance, marked at 1.060, which was reached in the previous week's price action. The Eurodollar appears poised to move toward the target value of Inner Currency Rally 1.072 after surpassing the critical resistance level at 1.060. However, it is essential to note that the Eurodollar may retest the support level at 1.049 before continuing its upward trend.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further WeaknessEUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further Weakness The EUR/USD currency pair faces mounting pressure as economic data and central bank commentary from both sides of the Atlantic paint contrasting pictures. With the year-end approaching, traders are navigating through a mix of historical trends, updated macroeconomic indicators, and shifting monetary policy expectations. --- Eurozone: Fragility Persists Industrial and Consumer Weakness Germany's 1.5% MoM decline in industrial orders, though marginally better than expected, reflects ongoing struggles in Europe's largest economy. Additionally, retail sales in the Eurozone fell by 0.5% MoM, highlighting a weak consumer spending environment that continues to drag on growth prospects. PMI and GDP Concerns The Composite PMI edged up slightly to 48.3, but contraction persists, underscoring the broader economic challenges in the region. Italy's downward revision of GDP forecasts further dampens sentiment, increasing the likelihood of more accommodative measures from the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB's Dovish Tilt ECB policymakers, including Robert Holzmann, have signaled a potential rate cut in December, reflecting a shift towards easing amid the Eurozone's persistent economic struggles. However, political instability, such as France's no-confidence vote against President Macron, adds another layer of uncertainty to the region's economic outlook. --- United States: Resilience Amid Inflation Challenges Economic and Labor Market Data The U.S. economy continues to show signs of resilience. Durable goods orders rose 0.3% and construction spending increased by 0.4%, aligning with expectations. Despite a slight drop in the ISM Services PMI to 52.1, the economy remains in expansion mode. The labor market also remains a pillar of strength: - Nonfarm Payrolls: 227k (forecast: 220k, previous: 12k, revised: 36k). - Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (forecast: 4.1%, previous: 4.1%). - Average Earnings YoY: 4.0% (forecast: 3.9%, previous: 4.0%). While layoffs have ticked up slightly, strong payroll growth and stable wages suggest continued labor market robustness, albeit with signs of gradual cooling. Fed's Monetary Policy Path Fed officials, including John Williams and Mary Daly, have hinted at potential rate cuts in 2024, but progress on inflation appears to have stalled, as noted by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman. Market sentiment is shifting rapidly—traders now see an 85% probability of a Fed rate cut this month, up from 67% before the November jobs report. Short-term interest-rate futures have surged, reflecting growing expectations of a dovish pivot. However, the Fed remains cautious, balancing inflationary risks with economic stability. --- Inflation and Consumer Sentiment The University of Michigan's latest data reinforces the U.S. economy's resilience: - 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 2.9% (forecast: 2.7%, previous: 2.6%). - Consumer Sentiment Prelim: 74.0 (forecast: 73.2, previous: 71.8). Elevated inflation expectations and improving consumer sentiment contrast with the Eurozone's gloomy outlook, further strengthening the dollar's appeal. --- EUR/USD Outlook: Bearish Bias Remains Intact Despite historical trends that favor the euro in December, the current economic backdrop presents significant challenges for sustained appreciation. Weak Eurozone data and a dovish ECB stand in stark contrast to the U.S. economy's relative stability and the Fed's measured approach. Key Factors Driving EUR/USD: 1. Diverging Data: Strong U.S. labor and inflation figures versus weak Eurozone performance. 2. Monetary Policy: Fed's cautious flexibility versus ECB's dovish signals. 3. Sentiment Shift: Rising probability of U.S. rate cuts but with a stronger baseline economy. While seasonal trends may provide temporary relief for the euro, the broader trajectory points downward. Traders should focus on macroeconomic developments and central bank guidance as the primary drivers for the pair in the coming weeks. The euro's path to recovery remains steep, with the U.S. dollar maintaining the upper hand in the current environment.
Short
by InvestMate
Comprehensive Market Recap – December 6, 2024Comprehensive Market Recap – December 6, 2024 Today’s financial markets delivered a complex mix of optimism, geopolitical tension, and robust economic data, offering plenty for investors to analyze. Here's a deep dive into the day’s major events and their implications: --- Equities and Indices: Record Highs Amid Resilience - S&P 500 Hits Milestone: The S&P 500 registered its 57th record-high close of the year, underscoring persistent strength in U.S. equities. Solid labor market data, coupled with easing inflation concerns, fueled confidence. Market-on-close (MOC) imbalances revealed a $25 million inflow for the S&P, while Nasdaq attracted a robust $165 million. - Nasdaq Leadership Continues: The "Magnificent Seven" stocks drove $195 million in MOC inflows, reinforcing the narrative of tech dominance in market performance. - HSBC's Bold Prediction: HSBC announced an ambitious target of 6,700 for the S&P 500 by the end of 2025, signaling long-term confidence in the U.S. economy despite near-term uncertainties. --- Energy Sector: Declining Prices Amid Mixed Sentiment - Crude Oil Declines: Brent Crude settled at $71.20 per barrel (-1.35%), while WTI Crude dropped to $67.20 (-1.61%). The Saudi Energy Minister’s comments about weak Q1 demand and stockpiling concerns contributed to bearish sentiment. - Natural Gas Steady: NYMEX Natural Gas January futures settled at $3.076/MMBtu, maintaining relative stability amidst expectations of mild winter weather. - Chevron’s Optimism: Despite current price weakness, Chevron’s CEO projected record U.S. oil production in 2025, reflecting long-term confidence in energy fundamentals. --- Forex and Fixed Income: Dollar Strength and Rate Cut Expectations - Strong Dollar Performance: The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened, bolstered by robust labor market data and improved consumer sentiment. - Labor Data Surprises: U.S. nonfarm payrolls exceeded forecasts, reporting 227,000 jobs added in November (forecast: 220,000). The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings grew 0.4% MoM (forecast: 0.3%), signaling continued wage growth. - Canadian Dollar Volatility: Canada’s labor market outperformed expectations with 50.5k jobs added, yet the unemployment rate rose to 6.8%. This fueled speculation that the Bank of Canada will cut rates by 50 bps in its next meeting. --- Crypto Markets: Growing Confidence - Record Inflows: The cryptocurrency market saw an unprecedented four-week inflow of $11 billion, indicating heightened investor confidence. Today’s Crypto Fear and Greed Index stood at 72/100 (“Greed”), suggesting bullish sentiment across the market. - Regulatory Scrutiny: The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) imposed supervisory authority over Google Pay, reflecting growing regulatory oversight of digital payment and crypto-adjacent platforms. --- Central Bank Commentary: The Pivot Debate Intensifies - Federal Reserve: - Fed officials maintained a cautious tone, emphasizing the importance of incoming data. Fed’s Daly and Goolsbee hinted at slower rate adjustments moving forward, citing balanced labor market conditions and improving inflation trends. - Daly highlighted that inflation is nearing the Fed’s 2% target, while Goolsbee noted that interest rates are likely to be significantly lower in a year’s time. - Bank of England: - BoE’s Dhingra raised concerns about the restrictive nature of the current monetary policy, arguing for easing measures to prevent further damage to supply capacity and investment. - Reserve Bank of Australia: - Economists unanimously expect the RBA to hold rates steady at 4.35% in its December meeting, deferring any cuts to Q2 2025. --- Macroeconomic Indicators: Mixed Signals Across Regions United States: - Consumer Credit Boom: U.S. consumer credit surged to $19.239 billion in October (forecast: $10 billion), reflecting robust household spending and economic activity. - University of Michigan Survey: December’s preliminary data showed improved consumer sentiment (74 actual vs. 73.2 forecast), though long-term inflation expectations held at 3.1%. Eurozone: - *Steady Growth: Revised Q3 GDP figures confirmed 0.4% QoQ growth, while employment improved by 0.2%. However, German industrial production disappointed, falling -1.0% MoM in October (forecast: +1.0%). - Sanctions Deadlock: EU envoys failed to reach consensus on the 15th package of sanctions against Russia, reflecting geopolitical tensions. Asia-Pacific: - China Stimulus Hopes: Chinese equities rose on expectations of fiscal stimulus after Xinhua reported room for increased fiscal deficits in 2024. - Japanese Labor Market: Japan’s October household spending rebounded 2.9% MoM but remained weak on a YoY basis (-1.3%). Wage growth was steady at 2.6%, supporting domestic demand. --- Geopolitical Developments: Rising Tensions and Diplomacy - Middle East: Geopolitical risks escalated as reports emerged of heightened U.S. fighter activity in Syria and Israeli operations near the Lebanon-Syria border. - *Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions: The IAEA confirmed Iran’s plans to significantly increase uranium enrichment to 60% purity, a move condemned by the German Foreign Ministry as a “grave escalatory step.” - TikTok Ban Battle: TikTok's CEO announced intentions to seek U.S. Supreme Court intervention to block a ban, adding to geopolitical and regulatory tensions surrounding Chinese technology companies. --- Sector Highlights: Corporate Moves and Industry Trends - Tech Innovation in Defense: Palantir's partnership with Anduril underscores the increasing role of artificial intelligence in modern defense strategies. This announcement fueled optimism in the tech sector. - *French Political Uncertainty: Fitch Ratings highlighted deepening political and budgetary uncertainty in France following government instability, signaling potential fiscal risks. - Mercosur-EU Deal: The EU’s agreement with Mercosur is set to save European businesses €4 billion annually, highlighting progress in global trade negotiations. --- Key Takeaways and Market Outlook 1. Optimism Balanced with Caution: Strong U.S. labor data and innovation in key sectors bolster market confidence, but central banks remain cautious about the pace of easing amid persistent inflation risks. 2. Geopolitical Risk Looms: Escalating tensions in the Middle East and concerns over Iran’s nuclear ambitions may weigh on energy markets and global stability. 3. Sectoral Shifts: Technology and green energy continue to dominate investor focus, with defense and AI playing critical roles in corporate strategies. Today’s market activity highlights the delicate balance between robust economic fundamentals and underlying risks. As global markets navigate these dynamics, investors should stay vigilant for potential shifts in policy, geopolitics, and macroeconomic conditions.
by InvestMate
1