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EURUSD trade ideas

Price Action + CVD + VWAP FRVP correlated with DXY🎯 ALGORITHMIC - Mentorship: Friday 09.05.25 during New York session, we traded Price Action + CVD + VWAP FRVP correlated with EU-DXY and we started with CVD Divergency - Apsortion allowing us a trading idea which translated into 1 trade executions on same logic. Then we got an understanding that price was at the 3rd standard deviation using the VWAP and that the VAH correlated perfectly with an FVG created at M15. During the trade we spoted a triple support in which we concluded that was an iceberg order by using EUR-USD futures 6EM(jun 25 contract) to get aquainted with order flow and confirm the iceberg which was later breached creating a new resistence. The LTF, MTF Market structure showed a nice MMSM Market Makers Seller Model forming so we jumped in. Our target.... POC - Point of Control..... Elevate your trading game with this deep-dive into algorithmic setups! In this session (Friday, May 9, 2025, New York hours) we combine classic Price Action with advanced flow tools—CVD, VWAP (including FRVP bands), and FX correlations—to hunt high-probability entries. Here’s what you’ll learn: 🔍 Session Breakdown Trading View Analysis Chart: - M3 - - M15 - - CVD Divergence & Absorption – Spot the imbalance that kick-started our first edge and trade execution. - VWAP 3σ Reversion – Identify when price strays to the third standard deviation and pairs up with a Volume Area High that lines up with an M15 Fair Value Gap. - Iceberg Order Detection – Use EUR/USD futures (6EM, Jun ’25 contract) to confirm hidden liquidity pools at triple-level support, then capitalize when they fliped to resistance creating a new pull back so we re-entered new position enforcing our logic. - Market Structure & MMSM – Read the multi-timeframe swing highs and lows to pinpoint the Market Makers’ Seller Model—and know exactly when to strike. 🎯 Trade Execution & Outcome - Entry triggered by a confluence of CVD setup + VWAP deviation + FVG validation - Confirmation via order-flow iceberg break - Target: Point of Control (POC) 📈 Key Takeaways - How to fuse Price Action with CVD and VWAP for algorithmic precision - Techniques to spot and trade iceberg orders in real time - MTF structural analysis for aligning with institutional flows
Short
by stryng
1
EUR/USD Trade Idea – Bearish Setup Based on Dow TheoryBased on Dow Theory, EUR/USD is consistently forming Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL) — a classic indication of a bearish trend. We are placing a Sell Stop order just below the recent low. If the trend continues and a new LL is formed, it confirms further downside, and we will execute two separate trades — each with a distinct risk-reward strategy. 🔹 Trade Setup Details: Pair: EUR/USD Trend: Bearish Entry (Sell Stop): 1.11910 Stop Loss (SL): 1.12975 Take Profit 1 (TP1): 1.10845 (Trade 1: 1:1 RR) Take Profit 2 (TP2): 1.09978 (Trade 2: 1:2 RR) Lot Size: 0.09 ( For both Trades) Risk Per Trade: $100 ( Total $200 for both Trades) Reward Potential: Up to $300 ( Trade 1: $100 and Trade 2: $200) 📌 Trade Strategy: We are executing two separate trades: Trade 1: Targeting a 1:1 risk-reward ratio – a more conservative position. Trade 2: Targeting a 1:2 risk-reward ratio – aiming for greater profit if the trend extends. This dual-trade strategy allows us to lock in partial profits early while still having exposure to larger potential gains. ✅ Bearish Structure Confirmed ✅ Two Trade Plans ✅ Defined Risk and Reward ✅ Dow Theory-Aligned Setup 🔔 Follow for more trade setups, and feel free to share your thoughts or chart ideas in the comments! #Hashtags: #EURUSD #ForexTrading #DowTheory #BearishTrend #TradingView #PriceAction #FXMarket #ForexSetup #TechnicalAnalysis #SmartMoney #SellSetup #RiskReward #ForexStrategy #BreakoutTrade #SwingTrade #ForexCommunity #TradeSmart
Short
by asimafridi
EUR/USD Looking More and More Like a Top May be In PlaceEUR/USD lost a really big level this week when bears pushed through the 1.1275 Fibonacci level. This is the 61.8% retracement of the 2021-2022 major move, and that price was the swing high in 2023. More importantly for the past three weeks that level was support for EUR/USD, both before and after the failed run at the 1.1500 handle. This move has been a big part of the sell-off in the US Dollar and as we've seen more and more bottoming potential for the Greenback on the basis of three consecutive weekly gains, the opposite has been the case for EUR/USD. For this week, we had a descending triangle build around the FOMC rate decision, with lower-highs as resistance and horizontal support at the 1.1275 level. That formation filled in cleanly on Thursday with a breakdown, and price pushed directly down to the 1.1200 handle, which is a big level in its own right. That was the high on multiple occasions last year and to date, it hasn't shown much for support, until this week, at least. That price led into a bounce into the close of the week but the bearish sequencing remains in-play for next week and the door remains open for a test down towards 1.1100 or perhaps even 1.1000. Notably, the 1.0943 level is related to the same Fibonacci sequence that produced 1.1275 and 1.0943 was resistance turned support just a month ago. - js
by FOREXcom
1
EUR/USD at Critical Resistance – Bearish Reversal Ahead? The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.12468, showing signs of hesitation near a major supply zone identified between 1.12400 – 1.14000, a level that has historically acted as strong resistance. Key Technical Observations (4H Chart): Supply Zone (1.12400 – 1.14000): Price reacted strongly here in the past, and we're seeing another potential reversal setup as sellers begin to step in. Bearish Divergence on recent highs (check RSI/MACD) confirms weakening bullish momentum. Double Top Formation forming just below 1.14000, a classic reversal pattern. Break Below 1.12000 could trigger a sell-off toward 1.09000, with further downside to 1.04000 if macro sentiment aligns. Demand Zone remains solid around 1.03400 – 1.04000, where buyers previously pushed the pair higher. Fundamental Catalysts to Watch: Upcoming ECB & FOMC statements (see icons marked on the chart). US Jobs Data & CPI releases may heavily influence USD strength. Geopolitical tensions and Eurozone economic projections also playing a role in sentiment. My Trading Plan: Watching for bearish confirmation (e.g., 4H bearish engulfing candle) below 1.12400. Short Entry Zone: 1.12200 – 1.12400 Target 1: 1.09000 Target 2: 1.04000 SL: Above 1.14000 zone (tight risk management). Conclusion: This could be a high-risk reversal zone with great R:R setup if confirmed. Always wait for price action confirmation and watch for news catalysts! If this analysis helps you, give it a like and follow for more smart breakdowns like this! Let’s grow together as traders.
Short
by FrankFx14
Euro Nears 1.1230 on Cautious ECBEUR/USD edged up to 1.1230 in Friday’s Asian session, paring earlier losses caused by stronger U.S. data and easing trade tensions that supported the dollar. The euro remains under pressure as markets price in possible ECB rate cuts by June, though officials maintain confidence in inflation reaching the 2% target by year-end. The pair faces resistance at 1.1260, with further upside capped near 1.1460 and 1.1580. On the downside, support is seen at 1.1150, followed by 1.1100 and 1.1050.
by ChartMage
EURUSD Faces Political Risks After German and Romanian VotingEURUSD is trying to hold steady, supported by strong enough PMI data. The Eurozone composite PMI rose to 50.4 from 50.1. While the increase is modest, it is still important amid ongoing tariff-related turmoil. However, political risks that were believed to be easing now appear to be intensifying. In Romania, first-round election results showed anti-EU candidate Simion securing around 40% of the vote. This could create problems for both the EU and Ukraine. Meanwhile, today’s vote in Germany is raising concerns. Merz received only 310 of the 316 votes required from parliament. Given that the coalition holds 328 seats, this outcome sends a troubling signal about the coalition’s stability. If Germany’s government proves unstable, it may further weigh on the euro. Both developments are negative for the euro. Combined with the recent momentum shift in EURUSD after its strong surge from around 1.04, a correction may be on the horizon. The 1.1260–1.1275 area is a key support zone. It includes a major trendline and an important horizontal support level. If this zone fails, EURUSD could quickly retreat toward the white trendline around 1.11. That trendline, which broke in April, dates back to the 2008 top and represents a long-term structural level. More details on this trend can be found below:
Short
by ftdsystem
Market Analysis: EUR/USD Trims GainsMarket Analysis: EUR/USD Trims Gains EUR/USD extended losses and traded below the 1.1250 support. Important Takeaways for EUR/USD Analysis Today - The Euro struggled to clear the 1.1380 resistance and declined against the US Dollar. - There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1240 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen. EUR/USD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair failed to clear the 1.1380 resistance. The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.1300 support against the US Dollar. The pair declined below the 1.1250 support and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested the 1.1200 level. A low was formed at 1.1196 and the pair is now consolidating losses. The pair is showing bearish signs, and the upsides might remain capped. There was a minor increase toward the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1381 swing high to the 1.1196 low. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 1.1240 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1240. The next major resistance is near the 1.1290 zone and the 50-hour simple moving average or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1381 swing high to the 1.1196 low. The main resistance sits near the 1.1335 level. An upside break above the 1.1335 level might send the pair toward the 1.1380 resistance. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.1420 level. On the downside, immediate support on the EUR/USD chart is seen near 1.1200. The next major support is near the 1.1165 level. A downside break below the 1.1165 support could send the pair toward the 1.1120 level. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
USA-UK: Trade Agreement and Impact Hello, I am Trader Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about the meeting that will take place today, May 9, 2025, between the USA and the UK. The announcement of a new trade agreement between the United States and the United Kingdom by Donald Trump has immediately attracted the attention of global investors. Its economic scope could have significant repercussions on the main currencies, in particular on the GBP/USD pair. The components of the agreement and the reactions of the markets According to initial information, the agreement aims to strengthen trade relations between Washington and London, simplifying regulations on goods and services, reducing duties and incentivizing bilateral investments. Immediate impact on the pound (GBP) The GBP/USD pair has shown an initial reaction of volatility, with investors evaluating the details of the new agreement. If the agreement leads to greater economic stability and growth in the United Kingdom, the pound could benefit from a bullish trend in the short term. However, some analysts warn that the pound could suffer from more in-depth negotiations in the future, especially if the deal puts renewed pressure on UK financial markets. The US dollar and the Fed’s monetary policy The deal comes amid economic uncertainty in the US, with the Federal Reserve monitoring inflation and growth. If bilateral trade between the US and UK were to expand significantly, it could have a positive effect on the dollar’s ​​strength, even against other currencies. Economic sectors involved and impact on FX The deal could affect several sectors: Energy and raw materials: If trade in natural gas or oil between the two countries increases, it could have an impact on commodity futures and therefore on currencies linked to these markets, such as the CAD and AUD. Technology and financial services: Expanded cooperation between technology and financial firms could attract investment on Wall Street and support the dollar. Manufacturing and Exports: If the UK manages to secure favorable export terms, the pound could see increased demand in Forex. Outlook In the short term, the deal could lead to increased volatility in GBP/USD as investors await further details. In the long term, much will depend on the economic policies that follow the deal and the effects on the trade balances of the two countries. Forex market analysts will continue to monitor investor reaction and future statements from the governments involved.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
Leo XIV: Impact on the Forex Market Hello, I am Forex trader Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about the election of the New Pope. The election of a new Pope is an event with implications not only religious and social, but also economic. With the rise of Leo XIV, the financial world is closely watching the possible repercussions on global currencies and investment strategies. Immediate effects on Forex volatility Historically, major political and institutional events can generate fluctuations in international currencies. Italy, home to the Vatican, could see movements on the EUR/USD pair, especially based on the first statements of the new Pontiff regarding the economic policies of the Vatican. Some investors may react with initial caution, leading to temporary volatility in the Forex market, similar to what happens during political elections or other leadership transitions. However, this volatility could be limited in the short term, unless Leo XIV announces substantial changes in the management of the Vatican finances. Vatican Financial Policies and Their Impact on Currencies The Vatican holds significant wealth, with real estate investments and stakes in international companies. If the new Pope decides to adopt a more transparent or ethical strategy in his investments, this could influence the financial sector, prompting global funds to review their investment strategies. EUR/USD and the Role of the ECB: Possible Vatican interventions on economic and social policies in Europe could prompt the ECB to assess the macroeconomic picture more carefully. Safe Haven Currencies (CHF, JPY, Gold): If the election generates economic uncertainty, we could see an increase in investments in safe haven assets, such as the Swiss Franc (CHF) and the Japanese Yen (JPY). Economic Sectors Impacted Ethical Finance and ESG: If Leo XIV emphasizes the importance of sustainable investments, companies linked to the ESG sector could see increased interest and capital inflows. Real Estate: With the Vatican being one of Europe’s largest property owners, any reforms in asset management could have repercussions on real estate markets, influencing the value of the EUR and other related assets.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
2
EURUSD BULLISH BREAKOUT AND RETESTOn the weekly chart, EURUSD recently closed above the 1.2000 resistance which has been a significant price zone since February 2023, with price reversing from this point multiple times. However, in the first week of April 2025, price violated this resistance, with the weekly candle closing well above 1.4000. Not only did the price break above the resistane, it was also confirmed by an ulta high volume bar. Since then, price has been retesting the broken resistane, but look at the volume again, its falling. As the bulls come in at this level, and with subsequent rising volumes,the next resistancce for EURUSD should be at the 1.2300 price zone, which is previous resistance from 2020/2021.
Long
by privatedvlper