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Euro / U.S. Dollar

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EURUSD trade ideas

EUR/USD: Pullback Before the Big Drop?The EUR/USD exchange rate remains stable around 1.0790 during early Asian trading on Monday, yet it faces potential downside pressure due to rising expectations of a less dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. Recent encouraging economic data from the United States has fueled these expectations, suggesting the Fed may adopt a more stringent policy in November, which could strengthen the dollar. From a technical perspective, EUR/USD has broken out of its descending regression channel, stabilizing above the upper line. On the downside, support levels are seen at 1.0800 and 1.0750. Last Thursday, EUR/USD displayed some resilience, benefiting from improved market sentiment and a dip in U.S. Treasury yields, leading to a temporary softening of the dollar. However, the pair remains at a crossroads, awaiting fresh cues from the economic calendar, such as U.S. durable goods orders data, which is expected to show a 1% decline. A stronger-than-expected figure could boost the dollar, while a more significant drop might weaken it, though the effect on EUR/USD could be short-lived. The neutral stance in U.S. index futures partly reflects broader uncertainty, leaving open the possibility that shifts in risk sentiment could impact the dollar; a continuation of risk flows favoring safer assets might keep the USD under pressure. Good trading day!
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EURUSD - Daily analysis - Downtrend is over, pay attention to geEURUSD - Daily analysis - Downtrend is over, pay attention to geopolitics. As the elections in the United States approach, we increasingly begin to pay attention to geopolitics, which affects the currency markets, and especially the dollar, at the expense of technical and fundamental analysis. In reality, only one working week remains until the all-important elections, where the world decides which way it will go next. Escalation of the two major conflicts into full-scale wars is a completely possible scenario. This would affect the United States depending on how involved the US would be. A further escalation of the wars could strengthen the dollar as US industry would produce more of the real good - weapons, as opposed to peace, where services are the driving force of the US economy. We expect new developments in the last days of the campaign, be it new attacks against Trump or escalation in the Middle East, after another batch of missile attacks against Tehran (Iran). On Monday, we don't really have any important data for the United States or Europe. On Tuesday we expect data on Consumer Confidence, Housing Price Index and JOLTS Job Openings. Big expectations for fundamental news from the United States are expected in the second half of the week, with the important Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) report at the end. Expectations for Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) are for a sharp decline in the numbers to weaker jobs data. That is why the dollar stopped the EURUSD downward trend in the last almost month. Thus, from the great growth of the dollar (EURUSD) from 1.12 at the end of September, to 1.0761 on October 23, 2024. This trend ended in the 43rd week of this year (the last week) to pass into expectations of a decline in the dollar and return to levels above 1.08. Thus, the downtrend is over and a break below 1.0760 is unlikely until at least Friday. Use the moment to trade in a neutral trend with a move of 25-40 pips or an uptrend in anticipation of levels above 1.0860. Let's also mention the BRICS meeting, which leaves the Dollar as the leading world currency in international payments for now, but more and more the Dollar will give way to the power of China, Russia and the rest of the world.
by World-Signals
EUR/USD Outlook: Scenario with Yield Spread The chart suggests a few key points about EUR/USD: What is the Yield Spread? The yield spread is simply the difference between the interest rates (or yields) of two different bonds, usually from different countries or types of bonds. For example, in this analysis, we’re looking at the yield spread between German 10-year bonds and U.S. 10-year bonds. If the U.S. bond yield is higher than the German bond yield, the yield spread is negative, making U.S. investments more attractive, which can strengthen the dollar compared to the euro. In short, the yield spread gives us a quick way to see which country’s bonds are offering better returns, helping us understand currency trends. 1/ Yield Spread (Germany vs. U.S.) The yield spread (pink line) is falling, showing that U.S. bonds offer better returns than German bonds. This makes the dollar more attractive than the euro, adding downward pressure on EUR/USD. 2/ EUR/USD Downtrend: EUR/USD has been trending down, moving in line with the yield spread. If this trend continues, EUR/USD could keep dropping. However, the RSI indicator shows oversold levels (below 30), suggesting a possible short-term bounce. 3/ RSI Oversold Signal: With RSI in the oversold zone, EUR/USD might see a short-term rebound, although the main trend remains bearish. Two Potential Scenarios Scenario 1: Short-Term Rebound, Then Further Drop What could happen: EUR/USD might bounce to a nearby resistance (around 1.0850) due to the oversold RSI. After that, it could resume its fall as the yield spread still favors the dollar. Trading Tip: Look for sell opportunities if EUR/USD rises temporarily, expecting a continuation of the downtrend. Scenario 2: No Rebound, Continued Downtrend What could happen: If the yield spread keeps dropping, EUR/USD could fall directly to lower levels like 1.0600, with no significant rebound. Trading Tip: Consider holding or adding to short positions if the spread keeps falling and supporting the dollar. Conclusion: The yield spread currently favors a strong dollar, which could continue to push EUR/USD lower. Although a short-term rebound is possible due to the oversold RSI, the overall trend likely remains downward unless there’s a shift in the yield spread. However, it’s important to remember that the yield spread is only a powerful indicator, providing insight into the current market sentiment. This is just one possible scenario and should not be viewed as a guaranteed outcome. Market conditions can change rapidly, and no indicator is 100% reliable.
by yashida
EURUSD Will Go Down From Resistance! Short! Take a look at our analysis for EURUSD. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 1.079. The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 1.068 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
Eur USD 4h.time frame had a breakout of the descending wedge ,also if you will take a look you will see that there is a fully formed diamond pattern. Those two patterns are bearish sign, so could be a retest of the wedge and then further move downside. But keep in mind that so far it does look also as a perfect Elliot Wave. I have marked wave 5 with a target of red straight line, what is 2023 highest point. Hard to tell which way this forex pair will choose, but I think it's worth to watch.
by DRDollFace