Get started

Euro / U.S. Dollar

No trades
See on Supercharts
Overview News
Ideas
Discussions Technicals Seasonals Economic Calendar

EURUSD trade ideas

EUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further WeaknessEUR/USD: Diverging Economic Realities Point to Further Weakness The EUR/USD currency pair faces mounting pressure as economic data and central bank commentary from both sides of the Atlantic paint contrasting pictures. With the year-end approaching, traders are navigating through a mix of historical trends, updated macroeconomic indicators, and shifting monetary policy expectations. --- Eurozone: Fragility Persists Industrial and Consumer Weakness Germany's 1.5% MoM decline in industrial orders, though marginally better than expected, reflects ongoing struggles in Europe's largest economy. Additionally, retail sales in the Eurozone fell by 0.5% MoM, highlighting a weak consumer spending environment that continues to drag on growth prospects. PMI and GDP Concerns The Composite PMI edged up slightly to 48.3, but contraction persists, underscoring the broader economic challenges in the region. Italy's downward revision of GDP forecasts further dampens sentiment, increasing the likelihood of more accommodative measures from the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB's Dovish Tilt ECB policymakers, including Robert Holzmann, have signaled a potential rate cut in December, reflecting a shift towards easing amid the Eurozone's persistent economic struggles. However, political instability, such as France's no-confidence vote against President Macron, adds another layer of uncertainty to the region's economic outlook. --- United States: Resilience Amid Inflation Challenges Economic and Labor Market Data The U.S. economy continues to show signs of resilience. Durable goods orders rose 0.3% and construction spending increased by 0.4%, aligning with expectations. Despite a slight drop in the ISM Services PMI to 52.1, the economy remains in expansion mode. The labor market also remains a pillar of strength : - Nonfarm Payrolls: 227k (forecast: 220k, previous: 12k, revised: 36k). - Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (forecast: 4.1%, previous: 4.1%). - Average Earnings YoY: 4.0% (forecast: 3.9%, previous: 4.0%). While layoffs have ticked up slightly, strong payroll growth and stable wages suggest continued labor market robustness, albeit with signs of gradual cooling. Fed's Monetary Policy Path Fed officials, including John Williams and Mary Daly, have hinted at potential rate cuts in 2024, but progress on inflation appears to have stalled, as noted by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman. Market sentiment is shifting rapidly—traders now see an 85% probability of a Fed rate cut this month, up from 67% before the November jobs report. Short-term interest-rate futures have surged, reflecting growing expectations of a dovish pivot. However, the Fed remains cautious, balancing inflationary risks with economic stability. --- Inflation and Consumer Sentiment The University of Michigan's latest data reinforces the U.S. economy's resilience: - 1-Year Inflation Expectations: 2.9% (forecast: 2.7%, previous: 2.6%). - Consumer Sentiment Prelim: 74.0 (forecast: 73.2, previous: 71.8). Elevated inflation expectations and improving consumer sentiment contrast with the Eurozone's gloomy outlook, further strengthening the dollar's appeal. --- EUR/USD Outlook: Bearish Bias Remains Intact Despite historical trends that favor the euro in December, the current economic backdrop presents significant challenges for sustained appreciation. Weak Eurozone data and a dovish ECB stand in stark contrast to the U.S. economy's relative stability and the Fed's measured approach. Key Factors Driving EUR/USD: 1. Diverging Data: Strong U.S. labor and inflation figures versus weak Eurozone performance. 2. Monetary Policy: Fed's cautious flexibility versus ECB's dovish signals. 3. Sentiment Shift: Rising probability of U.S. rate cuts but with a stronger baseline economy. While seasonal trends may provide temporary relief for the euro, the broader trajectory points downward. Traders should focus on macroeconomic developments and central bank guidance as the primary drivers for the pair in the coming weeks. The euro's path to recovery remains steep, with the U.S. dollar maintaining the upper hand in the current environment.
Short
by InvestMate
Euro rally ends, Eurozone GDP expected to accelerateThe euro is steady on Friday after jumping 0.7%  a day earlier. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0581, down 0.06% at the time of writing. The eurozone wraps up the week with the GDP and job growth reports and the market is expecting an improvement.  Third-quarter GDP is expected to improve to 0.4% q/q from o.2% in the second quarter. Job growth if forecast to tick upwards to 0.2% q/q, up from 0.1% in Q2. In France, the political chaos continues. A no-confidence vote passed this week and has left the country without a functioning government. Prime Minister Michel Barnier resigned on Thursday after just three months in office. President Emmanuel Macron said he will name a new prime minister shortly but the political crisis could push up French interest rates and the country's large debt. Germany, once the powerful locomotive of the eurozone, has faltered badly and has hampered growth in the eurozone. This week's German manufacturing data was dismal. The Manufacturing PMI remains mired in contraction and was unchanged at 43.0 in November. Factory orders for October declined by 1.5% after a 7.2% gain a month earlier. On Friday, industrial production fell 1% in October, after a 2% decline in September and shy of the market estimate of 1.2%. The German Services PMI slipped into contraction in November and there is political instability, as the coalition German government collapsed in November. A snap election has been scheduled for Feb. 23, 2025. The US wraps up the week with the nonfarm payroll report. With inflation largely contained, the employment growth is once again a key release can move the US dollar. The November report is expected to rise to a respectable 200 thousand, after a weak gain of 12 thousand in October, which was driven downwards by hurricanes and work stoppages at Boeing. EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.0615 and 1.0644 1.0562 and 1.0533 are providing support
by OANDA
65 Consecutive Wins: The Definitive No-Repaint Trading SystemLets see if we can keep the Undefeated Wining Streak on todays NFP on EURUSD. 🚀 For traders tired of subjective methods and lagging indicators, this objective approach has achieved 65 consecutive winning setups! 💡 This idea highlights how replacing traditional tools with data-driven strategies, non-linear logic, and systematic trade management can transform trading performance. By analyzing live market conditions and applying precise execution principles, this complete and definitive strategy eliminates the pitfalls of emotional trading and hindsight bias. 📊 Key Focus: ✔️ Master liquidity dynamics. ✔️ Align with market flows. ✔️ Apply an objective, rule-based system for consistent results. 🎥 Curious to know more? Explore my profile for deeper insights and watch the trade-by-trade backtest video for full transparency. This isn’t about shortcuts—it’s about empowering traders with practical tools for success! ⚡ Versatility in Action: This system adapts to scalping, intraday, or swing trading. The 65 consecutive wins were backtested on a EURUSD swing chart layout. 📌 Disclaimer: All strategies should be tested and tailored to individual needs. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Short
by BullTradingAM
4
idea on a NFP EUR/USD stays defensive below 1.0600 in the European session on Friday. The US Dollar holds ground due to profit-taking and a softer risk tone. Traders refrain from placing fresh bets on the pair ahead of the critical US Nonfarm Payrolls data release.US Nonfarm Payrolls are set to jump by 200K in November after rising by just 12K in October. The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the labor data on Friday at 13:30 GMT. US jobs data is critical to gauging future Fed rate cuts and the US Dollar price direction.
by EZIO-FX
EUR/USD Remains Cautious: Traders Await US Payrolls DataThe EUR/USD currency pair remains cautious as it trades below the 1.0600 level during the European session on Friday, just shy of a previous resistance zone. The US Dollar is maintaining its stability, supported by profit-taking and a subdued risk appetite among investors. Market participants are hesitant to commit to new positions ahead of the pivotal US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which includes key indicators such as Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, and the Unemployment Rate. The day's events are significant and will likely influence the direction of the DXY index as we approach the new week. From a technical perspective, the price remains under the 1.0600 resistance level. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates a shift in retailer positioning towards a bullish sentiment, while non-commercial traders continue to display a bearish outlook. Currently, we are refraining from taking any positions. However, we maintain a bearish bias and anticipate a potential decline that could retest the 1.0400 zone or even extend lower. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EURUSD: Today's Key Events Set Your CourseThe EURUSD is facing a critical day driven by important economic data in both the Eurozone and the US. Today's releases could set the near-term direction for the pair as traders look for clues on economic growth and the state of the labor market. Europe: Retail Sales and GDP October retail sales data (10:00 CET) in the euro zone will be the first point of focus. This indicator reflects the health of consumption, a key component of GDP. Expectations are for monthly growth of 1.2% , up from the previous figure of 0.9% . A positive result could strengthen the euro, showing the resilience of consumption in an inflationary context. At 11:00 CET, Q3 GDP will be released, with more conservative forecasts: 0.2% q/q and 0.6% y/y , versus previous data of 0.4% and 0.9% , respectively. Lower-than-expected growth could pressure the euro, especially if the weakness is also reflected in employment data for the same period. United States: Labor Market in Focus Attention will shift to the United States with Nonfarm Payrolls data (14:30 CET).A marked slowdown in job creation is expected, with only 12K versus 200K in the previous month. Despite this, a slight improvement in the unemployment rate is anticipated, dropping to 4.1% from 4.2% . If the data confirms a weakening in the labor market, the dollar could lose strength, giving support to the EUR/USD. EUR/USD Outlook The EUR/USD is in a key range, hovering around support between 1.04506 and 1.04956 and resistance at 1.05996 . Its current control point (POC) at 1.05266 could indicate some previous bearish pressure, currently the signal was given yesterday at 8 pm Spanish time in which the 50-average cross overtook the 100-average cross, indicating a change in the downtrend of the last few days. At the moment the RSI is slightly oversold at 61.35%.Positive data from Europe could help the euro regain ground against the dollar, especially if GDP surprises to the upside. Conversely, if U.S. employment data comes out better than expected, the dollar could strengthen, pushing the pair lower. Traders should monitor volatility following the data and watch for comments from Fed officials, who will also speak today. These signals could offer additional clues about the direction of monetary policy on both sides of the Atlantic. Conclusion: EUR/USD will face important catalysts today. Economic data from both sides of the Atlantic will have a significant impact on the direction of the pair, offering key opportunities for intraday traders. Ion Jauregui –ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Long
by ActivTrades
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): Long to Resistance area 1.06197.Colleagues, Price closed the gap and now I believe that wave “C” is almost over or already over. Therefore, I think that we should look only at long positions with the aim to reach the area of 1.06197. There are 2 possible scenarios: 1) Wave “C” is finally formed and the price will continue the upward movement. (More risky market entry) 2) The price will still make a small movement to the nearest minimum and here I would recommend placing pending limit orders. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Long
by Hellena_Trade
48
Fundamental Market Analysis for December 06, 2024 EURUSDEUR/USD is declining to 1.0575 at the start of the European session on Friday. Concerns over US tariffs on European goods and rising bets on interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) are weighing on the Euro against the US Dollar. This Friday, the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data will take center stage. The single currency remains on the defensive as traders are concerned about potential tariff policies on all goods imported into the US, which could undermine the Eurozone economy. In addition, the ECB is widely expected to cut the interest rate at its last monetary policy meeting of the year. All but two of the 75 economists surveyed believe the ECB will cut the deposit rate by 25 basis points (bps) on Dec. 12. On Thursday, French President Emmanuel Macron said he would appoint a new prime minister in the coming days, with the top priority being parliament's passage of the 2025 budget. Any signs of political uncertainty in France could contribute to the euro's decline. Abroad, the expectation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will reduce borrowing costs at its December meeting could put pressure on the dollar and limit EUR/USD's decline. Markets now estimate the probability that the central bank will cut rates by a quarter point at its December 17-18 meeting at 70.1%. Trade recommendation: Watch the level of 1.0570, when fixing below consider Sell positions, when rebounding consider Buy positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004