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EURUSD : This also applies to BTCUSDThe 'trendline' had spoken, but what about the harmonic pattern? I do NOT believe in trendlines, so the reason for me is that price reacts to 1.1292 because of something else. However, reacting to this is a very strong indication of price weakness. Now price is at B: a) If price bounces from B, it would likely move to 1.0835 b) If price bounces from C, it would likely retest D Do also take note of bond yield which is a bit crazy nowadays. This is likely a test for the $. The US30Y is near 5% - if it goes above 5.25%, then we can expect something to break. $ would be at risk. Good luck.
Short
by i_am_siew
1
Bearish reversal off 61.8% Fibonacci resistance?The Fiber (EUR/USD) has rejected off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 1.1265 1st Support: 1.1071 1st Resistance: 1.1367 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets
1
EUR/USD Trendline Break + Retest Trade Setup!Major Bearish Move Loading... 📉🔥 🧠 Technical Breakdown: EUR/USD is setting up for a potential reversal after forming a Head & Shoulders pattern on the 4H chart. The neckline is broken, and we’re now watching for a clean retest of the previous neckline zone and bullish trendline — a prime area for sell entries if price rejects here! 📍 Key Insights: ◾ Pattern: Head & Shoulders — classic bearish reversal. ◾ Neckline Break: Structure shift confirmed with strong bearish candles. ◾ Retest Zone: 1.1230–1.1277 — expected rejection zone. ◾ Target Area: Demand zones between 1.0950–1.0770. 🎯 Trade Setup Idea: 🔴 Entry: Wait for bearish rejection from neckline zone (1.1200–1.1250) 🟢 Stop Loss: Above 1.13250 (to cover fakeouts) 🎯 Target: First TP at 1.1000, second TP near 1.0950 ⚠ Pro Tip: Always wait for confirmation! Let price react to the trendline + neckline zone first — this is a high-probability retest trade if rejection happens cleanly. 💥 Final Thoughts: EUR/USD is showing signs of exhaustion after a major bullish run. This setup could lead to big downside potential — be patient, follow risk management, and let the pattern play out!
Short
by BullsTrendAnalyst
1
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 20, 2025 EURUSDEURUSD: EUR/USD tested high levels on Monday, briefly rising to 1.1300, but then retreated slightly, although the day ended higher overall. Nevertheless, the pair remains in a short-term consolidation zone. Last Friday, rating agency Moody's downgraded the United States (US), stripping it of its latest AAA rating on Treasuries, citing the growing US debt and long-standing government budget deficits that various presidential administrations have either neglected or failed to manage effectively. While initial investor reaction was shaky, sentiment quickly stabilised and the impact on US creditworthiness was largely written off. Still, Treasury markets are struggling: On Monday, 30-year bond yields topped 5 per cent and 10-year yields topped 4.5 per cent. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have been working hard this week to manage market expectations for a possible rate cut. Fed policymakers have continually reminded investors that ongoing U.S. tariff and trade policies complicate the outlook for the national economy, which in turn affects rate adjustments. Thursday will see the release of German and pan-European purchasing managers' index (PMI) reports from HCOB, providing a double dose of business expectations surveys on both sides of the Pacific. Both the German and pan-European PMIs are expected to rise moderately. The key economic data release from the US will be the S&P Global PMI data for May, where average market expectations suggest a slight decline in both the manufacturing and service components of the PMI report due to the impact of tariffs on business spending. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1250, SL 1.1230, TP 1.1350
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
1
05/15/2025 EUR/USD - Bullish to 1.1230We begin with high time frame analysis on the daily chart to understand the market context and holistic situation of EUR/USD. As we can see, price is in an obvious uptrend with two touch points, price recently touching the SMA 50, bouncing off that moving average which is acting as a dynamic support level. Furthermore, the SMA 50 and 200 have recently crossed with the 50 moving above the 200, signaling a possible uptrend. From the image we can also see that we have a resistance level that has been touched twice in the past 8 months before beginning a significant downtrend. Moving down into the 4 hour chart we can see that price is forming a recent downtrend with successive lower highs. Eventually, price broke below that key resistance level we mentioned earlier, on high volume. Expanding further, this break resulted in price crossing the SMA 200, an event that hasn't occured in the last 67 days. The retracement of this break failed to penetrate above the SMA 50 from the downside, maintaining in line with the trendline drawn on the chart, forming a new lower high. Furthermore, the SMA 50 is just now touching the SMA 200, crossing below it, signaling a possible downtrend. Drilling down further into the 1 hour chart, we're able to identify a short term downward channel that price trades within. This channel is then broken on heavy volume, as indicated by a large red exhaustion candle, signaling selling pressure has evaporated in one big burst. Price then returns into the channel, with new buying interest pushing price out of the channel on the upside. The SMA 200 acts as a dynamic resistance zone and rejects price, pushing it further down. Price finds support at the support/resistance level that we identified on the daily chart. The breaking of this level was not broken on high volume, signaling market disinterest, rather than active selling. At this point, price is likely to trade within a channel, with the first big rally ending in an exhaustion candle, in which price quickly returned to the channel. Price will eventually continue this consolidation until touching the trendline that was drawn on the daily, while the SMA 200 continues to become lower and get closer to price. At some point a breakout will occur, but I believe consolidation will hold for some time before then. Therefore for the purposes of right now, I would say this pair is bullish, but I would not take trades now. Instead, I would wait until price reaches either end of the channel and then assess from there.
Long
by TAandFA
2
Bearish drop?EUR/USD has rejected off the resistance level which is an overlap resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.1274 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level which is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.1373 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Take profit: 1.1084 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
1
EURUSD – Bearish Rejection and Targeting the 4H Imbalance ZoneEURUSD has shifted into a clear bearish tone following multiple rejections from a well-established resistance level. Over the past several weeks, price has struggled to break above that zone, showing consistent signs of selling pressure each time it attempted a push higher. The most notable move came when price briefly spiked above the resistance in what now appears to be a fakeout. That move did not hold, and it’s very likely that it served as a classic liquidity grab engineered to sweep buy stops resting above the range highs before reversing direction. This kind of behavior is typical in a distribution phase, especially when seen at a high-timeframe resistance zone. The fake breakout essentially confirms that the upside liquidity has been taken, and that smart money is shifting direction. Since that event, price has been making lower highs and lower lows, reinforcing the current bearish structure. Consolidation Structure Before the fakeout, EURUSD had been consolidating just under resistance, building up a tight range. This kind of structure tends to lure in breakout traders, and the eventual spike above the range likely cleaned out a lot of stop orders. What followed was an aggressive reversal back into the prior range, which is a strong sign that the breakout was not genuine. Since then, price pushed down and attempted a retracement, but that retracement got rejected precisely within a fair value gap. This is significant. It tells us that even during a pullback, the market is respecting inefficiencies and continues to deliver bearish reactions rather than signs of strength. That rejection further confirms that bears remain in control and that the earlier break was nothing more than a trap. Bearish Scenario With resistance holding and the fair value gap rejection now confirmed, I expect EURUSD to continue its descent and seek out deeper levels of interest. The most obvious draw on liquidity now sits below the current price, the large four-hour imbalance zone. This imbalance was left behind during the impulsive rally that preceded the fakeout, and it has yet to be filled. Inside that imbalance, there’s also a golden pocket level lining up almost perfectly. That confluence between the imbalance zone and the 0.618–0.65 region adds weight to the idea that this area will act as a magnet for price. Markets seek efficiency, and this entire zone represents a void that price is likely to come back and rebalance. The move into that zone would also allow the market to engineer sell-side liquidity along the way, particularly under the recent higher lows. Once those are swept, and if price begins to react inside the golden pocket, we may then begin to look for early signs of accumulation or even a bullish displacement, but until then, the short bias remains firmly in play. Price Target and Expectations The first key expectation is a clean sweep through the current local lows and a drive into the heart of the 4-hour imbalance. This is where I’ll be watching most closely for a potential change in behavior. Ideally, I want to see price push deep into the imbalance and tap the golden pocket before doing anything significant on the long side. If price shows a strong reaction there, such as a bullish engulfing or a clear market structure shift that would signal the potential for a reversal. Until then, any bounce is likely to be short-lived and corrective in nature. The structure is still bearish, and the fair value gap rejection reinforces that. Current Stance Right now, I remain bearish. I’m not interested in fighting this momentum by jumping into premature longs. As long as price remains under the level it got rejected from, and continues to print lower highs, I’ll maintain a sell-the-rip mindset. If price delivers a deeper pullback from here, it may offer a short-term intra-day bounce, but the core expectation is still a move lower into the imbalance zone. The area that interests me the most is the combination of the 4-hour imbalance and golden pocket, that’s the zone where I’ll shift from reactive to proactive and start looking for possible long setups. But I won’t consider longs unless price gets there and shows clear intent to reverse. Conclusion The market has already swept buy-side liquidity with the fakeout above resistance, and the rejection from the fair value gap confirms that sellers are still in control. Price is now being drawn toward the inefficiency below, and all signs point toward a continued bearish move until that imbalance is filled. Until price reaches that zone and delivers a reaction worth trading, I’m staying patient and waiting for the setup to complete. Chasing entries in the middle of the range here doesn’t offer the best risk-reward. The focus now is on watching how price interacts with the 4-hour imbalance and the golden pocket, that’s where I’ll reassess the narrative and consider shifting bias if conditions warrant it. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀 Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈
Short
by TehThomas
67
Hammer Candlestick: Meaning and SignalsHammer Candlestick: Meaning and Signals Technical analysis is a commonly used approach in the financial markets. It involves studying historical price data to make informed trading decisions. Among the various tools and formations employed in technical analysis, the hammer candlestick pattern stands out as a powerful tool. This article will delve into the meaning of the hammer candlestick pattern and explain how traders can interpret it on a forex, stock, and crypto* price chart. What Is a Hammer Candle? A hammer is a candlestick that is found on trading charts. It occurs at the end of a downtrend and acts as a bullish reversal signal. To identify a bullish hammer candle on a price chart, traders do the following: - Look for a significant downward movement: They begin by searching for a notable decline in an asset’s price. - Observe the candle shape: The setup is characterised by a small body near the top of the candle and a long lower shadow. The lower shadow must be at least two times the length of the body. The colour of the candle doesn’t matter, but if it’s a green hammer candlestick, meaning it closed higher than it opened, the signal may be stronger. - Analyse the context: Traders usually look for areas of support nearby as they may increase the setup's reliability. Bullish Hammer Pattern: Trading Rules Here are the common steps traders take when trading with a hammer: - Confirm validity: Traders ensure that the hammer meets the criteria discussed earlier, such as a significant market decline followed by a candle with a small real body near the top and a large lower wick. - Determine the entry point: Once the bullish hammer candlestick is confirmed, traders identify an appropriate entry point. Candlesticks don’t provide specific entry points. However, traders usually wait for the subsequent bar to close above and enter the trade if the market moves higher. - Set stop-loss and take-profit levels: Traders place a stop-loss order below the low of the hammer to potentially limit risks. Traders determine a suitable take-profit level based on their trading approach, such as at the nearest resistance level or in accordance with the risk/reward ratio. Trading Example A trader spots a hammer on the hourly chart of the EURUSD pair. They wait for the candle to close above the hammer to enter the market. Their stop loss is below the hammer’s lower shadow, with the take profit calculated in accordance with the 1:2 risk/reward ratio. How Can You Confirm the Hammer Candlestick? Confirming the hammer candlestick pattern enhances the reliability of trading decisions. Beyond its basic identification, several techniques and indicators help validate its potential bullish reversal signal. - Volume Analysis: A significant increase in trading volume during the formation of the hammer candlestick suggests stronger confirmation. Higher buying volume indicates heightened interest and participation, reinforcing the potential reversal. - Support Levels: The presence of a strong support level near the hammer adds credibility to the pattern. Support levels act as psychological barriers where buying interest may increase, boosting the likelihood of a reversal. - Subsequent Candlesticks: Observing the price action of the next few candlesticks after the hammer can provide further confirmation. A bullish candle closing above the high of the hammer enhances its validity. -Double Hammer Pattern: While rare, a double hammer candlestick pattern where two candles appear consecutively can offer strong confirmation of a bullish movement. - Trend Indicators: Utilising trend indicators like moving averages can help confirm the hammer. A rising moving average confirming the upward trend or a hammer forming in line with a broader trend adds weight to the potential reversal. - Divergence: Identifying divergence between the price and momentum indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), can strengthen the pattern's reliability. Hammer and Other Candlestick Patterns Let’s compare the hammer to other candle formations you can spot on price charts. Inverted Hammer The inverted hammer is similar to the hammer but has a different appearance. It is characterised by a small body near the bottom of the candle and a long upper wick. The inverted hammer signals a potential bullish reversal as buyers start to gain strength and push the market up. The small body and small lower shadow reflect the rejection of lower prices, suggesting a shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish. Doji In contrast to the red or green hammer candlestick pattern, the doji features a small real body with equal or close opening and closing prices and long upper and lower wicks. It represents market indecision, where neither buyers nor sellers have gained a clear advantage. While the hammer is potent during the downtrend, the doji can occur after both uptrends and downtrends, and it signals market consolidation or a potential trend reversal. Shooting Star The shooting star formation emerges at the top of an uptrend and suggests a potential bearish reversal. It is identified by a small real body near the bottom of the candle and a long upper wick, implying a rejection of higher prices and potential exhaustion of buying pressure. Hanging Man The hanging man emerges after an uptrend and suggests a potential bearish reversal. It resembles the hammer with a small real body near the top and a long lower wick, but the crucial difference is that it occurs in an uptrend. The hanging man implies that sellers are starting to exert influence, potentially leading to a reversal in the market. Limitations of the Hammer Pattern While the hammer is a valuable tool in technical analysis, it is not without its limitations. - False Signals: It can sometimes produce false signals, leading to premature or incorrect trade entries. In certain market conditions, such as strong downtrends or highly volatile environments, the hammer may be less effective. Its success rate can vary across different assets and market scenarios. - Dependence on Confirmation: The reliability of the hammer significantly depends on additional confirmation tools and indicators. Without these, alone it might not provide sufficient confidence for trading decisions. - Short-Term Nature: The hammer primarily signals short-term price movements and typically can’t be used to anticipate medium or long-term price trends. The Bottom Line Successful implementation of the hammer formation requires experience, practice, and the use of additional technical analysis tools and indicators. Traders never rely solely on the hammer’s signals but integrate it into a comprehensive trading strategy. FAQ What Is a Hammer Candlestick? A hammer is a specific setup found in charts that indicates a potential reversal to an uptrend. It is formed when a financial instrument opens at a certain price and experiences a significant decline during the trading period but eventually rallies back and closes near its opening price. Is a Hammer Candlestick Pattern Bullish? Yes, the hammer candlestick pattern is generally considered bullish. It signifies a potential trend reversal after a downtrend, as buyers enter the market and drive the price higher from its lows. The long lower shadow indicates that the buying pressure is strong and can potentially lead to further upward movement in the market. Can a Hammer Candle Be Bearish? A hammer candle is generally considered a bullish reversal signal, signalling a potential upward price movement after a downtrend. There is no bearish hammer. If the market continues to move lower after it forms, it just means that bearish market conditions were stronger and didn’t allow buyers to change market sentiment. What Is the Hammer Candle Rule? The hammer candle rule states that it must occur after a significant downtrend, have a small real body near the top of the candle, and feature a long lower shadow at least twice the length of the body. This pattern indicates a potential bullish reversal if confirmed by subsequent price action. What Is the Hammer Strategy? The hammer trading strategy involves identifying a candlestick at the end of a downtrend, confirming its validity with additional indicators or signals, and then entering a long position. Traders typically set stop-loss orders below the hammer's low and determine take-profit levels based on risk/reward ratios or nearby resistance levels. *Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
EURUSDHello Traders! 👋 What are your thoughts on EURUSD? On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD is forming a downward corrective structure following a strong bullish move. Price is approaching a support area, which aligns with a 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level We anticipate the correction to complete near this confluence zone, followed by a resumption of the bullish trend toward higher targets. Will this support hold and trigger the next bullish leg? Share your thoughts below! Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Long
by HAMED_AZ
2