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EURUSD trade ideas

EURUSD Bounce on the 4H MA100 eyes 1.2000.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the May 12 Low. Right now it is expanding its 3rd Bearish Leg of this structure, with the previous two reaching at least either the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) or the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level before rebounding. As a result, we expect a rebound soon around the 1.16500 level to start the new Bullish Leg. The last two peaked on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension, which gives us a clear Target at 1.2000. Notice also that every time the 4H MACD formed a Bullish Cross below the 0.0 mark, it was a confirmed buy signal. Use that to your advantage. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
1
EUR/USD Technical ReversalThe daily EUR/USD chart shows a clear rejection at the 1.1830 resistance, aligned with the 0% Fibonacci level, following a sustained upward move. The rejection candlestick pattern, combined with the formation of an ascending channel, suggests buyer exhaustion and a potential start of a correction. Fibonacci projections indicate key support zones at 1.1198 (38.2%), 1.1000 (50%), and 1.0800 (61.8%). A sustained break below the ascending trendline and the intermediate support zone (highlighted in yellow) would reinforce the correction scenario, with a potential target at 1.0176 (100% Fibonacci). Decreasing volume and the lack of new significant highs further support the reversal hypothesis. Momentum analysis (RSI and MACD, if present) should be monitored for additional confirmation of the weakening bullish trend. From a fundamental perspective, the correction may be triggered by divergences in ECB and Fed monetary policies, as well as recent macroeconomic data favoring the US dollar. EUR/USD is showing clear technical signs of reversal after rejection at a key resistance. Loss of the 1.10 and 1.08 supports could accelerate the correction toward 1.0176. Close monitoring of upcoming candles and momentum indicators is recommended for confirmation of the move.
Long
by jeffersonmld
1
MarketBreakdown | EURUSD, DOLLAR INDEX, BITCOIN, SILVER Here are the updates & outlook for multiple instruments in my watch list. 1️⃣ #EURUSD daily time frame 🇪🇺🇺🇸 The price started a correctional movement after it updated a high the first of July. The market formed a bullish flag pattern. Your next trend-following bullish signal will be a breakout and a daily candle close above its resistance. 2️⃣ Dollar Index #DXY daily time frame 💵 The market corrects in a bearish flag pattern. I see a test of a significant horizontal resistance cluster now. Your signal to see will be a bearish violation of a support of the flag and a daily candle close below. 3️⃣ #BITCOIN #BTCUSD daily time frame Though the price managed to update the All-Time High yesterday, the market did not manage to close above a current major resistance. I believe that we will see another attempt of the market to breakthrough. Your bullish confirmation will be a daily candle close above the underlined resistance. 4️⃣ #SILVER #XAGUSD daily time frame 🪙 The price reached an important confluence demand zone based on a rising trend line and a horizontal key structures support. Probabilities will be high to see a bullish movement from that. Do you agree with my market breakdown? ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by VasilyTrader
2
How to Trade Liquidity Sweep in Forex Market (SMC Trading) I will show you a real example of trading liquidity sweep with Smart Money Concepts. You will learn the essential SMC liquidity basics, a simple and profitable strategy to identify and trade liquidity sweep. I will share with you an accurate entry confirmation signal that works perfectly on any Forex pair. Liquidity Basics In order to trade liquidity sweeps profitably, you should learn to identify significant liquidity zones. To spot them, analyze a historic price action and find clusters of important historic key levels. Examine a price action on EURUSD on an hourly time frame. I underlined multiple horizontal key levels. The price respected each level, found support on them, and rebounded. What is so specific about these levels is that they are lying close to each other, composing a liquidity cluster. That fact that EURUSD strongly bounced from these levels suggests that buying interest and high buying volumes were concentrated around them. We can unite these levels and treat them as a single demand zone that has just been broken and turned into a supply zone. After we found a valid liquidity zone, we can look for a liquidity sweep. First, we should let the price approach that area and look for a specific price behavior then. That is a perfect example of a liquidity sweep. You can see that the price formed a wide range candle with a long tail. Its high went way beyond the underlined area, but its body closed within. In order to understand, why a liquidity sweep occurred, let's zoom in our chart and try to understand a behavior of the market participants. Our supply zone concentrated selling orders , we assume that sellers were placing their orders across its entire length. Their stop losses were presumably lying above that area. Smart Money know that and with a liquidity sweep they manipulate the market, making sellers close their positions in a loss (buying back their positions from the market) and providing a liquidity for big players. After a formation of a such a candlestick, a reliable confirmation of a saturation of the Smart Money is a formation of a strong bearish candle - a clear sign of strength of the sellers. A bearish engulfing candle above confirmed a completion of a liquidity sweep and indicates a highly probable bearish continuation. Your perfect sell entry is immediately after a close of such a candlestick. Stop loss should strictly lie above the high of a liquidity sweep. Take profit is based on a local low. Look, how quickly the price reached the goal. Your strategy of trading liquidity sweeps of demand zones is absolutely the same. Let the price test a demand zone, wait for a formation of wide range bearish candle with a tail going below its lows. Wait for a bullish imbalance candle and buy immediately then. Stop loss will be below the low of a liquidity sweep, take profit - a local high. This SMC strategy works on any time frame and can be applied for trading any Forex pair, Gold, Silver, Crypto and commodities. Try it by your own and let me know your results. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Education
by VasilyTrader
14
Confirming EURUSD corrective downtrend✏️EURUSD is trading in a downtrend channel. SELL signal is triggered at the current price around 1.172 as the H4 candle failed to break 1.176 and confirmed the Sellers' entry into the market clearly. Target for the downtrend is at 1.145, the Sellers' strength needs to overcome the Break out zone of 1.163 first. 📈 Key level Support 1.163-1.146 Resistance 1.176 SELL DCA Trigger: Break 1.163 BUY Trigger: The price trades about 1.163.
by VHT_Trader
9
EUR/USD – Smart Money Trap at 1.18? Massive Rejection Ahead 1. Technical Context The pair has been moving inside a well-defined bullish channel since May, forming higher highs and higher lows. Price is currently hovering around 1.1718, approaching the upper boundary of the channel and a key weekly supply zone (1.1750–1.1850). ➡️ Potential scenario: A short bullish extension toward 1.1780–1.1820 to trigger stop hunts, followed by a bearish rejection toward 1.1500, and potentially 1.1380. The daily RSI is overbought (>70), suggesting a likely short-term correction. 2. Retail Sentiment 80% of retail traders are short, with an average entry around 1.1318. This signals a liquidity cluster above current highs, increasing the likelihood of a fake bullish breakout followed by a sell-off. ➡️ Contrarian insight: Retail heavily short → market may push higher first to wipe them out before reversing lower. 3. COT Report – USD Index (DXY) Non-commercials (speculators) increased their short exposure on USD (+3,134). Commercials cut their short positions (-1,994), indicating a potential bottoming on the dollar. ➡️ Conclusion: USD strength could return soon → bearish pressure for EUR/USD. 4. COT Report – EUR FX Non-commercials increased longs on EUR (+2,980) and sharply reduced shorts (-6,602) → market is now heavily net long. Commercials remain net short (581,664 vs 417,363 longs). ➡️ Over-leveraged spec longs → vulnerable to downside squeeze if macro sentiment shifts. 5. Seasonality June tends to be mildly bullish for EUR/USD. July historically shows even stronger upward performance over the last 5–10 years. ➡️ Shorts are high risk in the very short term, but a bearish setup is likely in the second half of July, especially if price action confirms. 6. Trading Outlook 📍 Short-Term Bias: Neutral to bullish toward 1.1780–1.1820 📍 Mid-Term Bias: Bearish on rejection from supply area and break of channel 🎯 Key Levels: 1.1780–1.1850: critical decision zone (liquidity + weekly supply) 1.1500: first key support 1.1380: next downside target (demand zone + previous POC) 📌 Final Conclusion The most likely play is a short setup from 1.1780–1.1850 on strong rejection, supported by: Extreme retail positioning (80% short), COT pointing to USD recovery, Extended technical structure, Overbought RSI on the daily chart.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
15
EUR/USD technical and fundamental analysis for next 2 days.Hello Traders, This whole analysis is based on 1 hour time frame. Indicators used for technical analysis: EMA RSI VWAP anchor Volume Profile Fibonacci retracement and extension In 1 hour time frame price is forming an ascending triangle which is likely to break out as EMA, and vwap are signalling bullish momentum. If price breaks resistance at $1.17832 its likely to go up till $1.18100. RSI is in the middle so it has ample room to move in both directions, So if trend line support breaks the price might move downwards to the support level at &1.17628 but the probability of this is very low. Volume profile is highlighting the current price with the most volume so it makes it a critical point for movement in any direction. Fundamental Analysis: The Fed (US Central Bank) is getting soft: On July 9th, we'll see notes from their last meeting. They're expected to sound pretty dovish, which just means they're worried about the US economy and might cut interest rates soon. Trump's Tariffs are back (July 9th deadline): If he puts new taxes on imported goods, it makes global trade messy and creates a lot of worry about the US economy. When people worry about the US, they tend to sell US Dollars. The Dollar is already weak & It's already been losing strength. Because the US Dollar is set to get a lot weaker from those big events on July 9th, and the Euro is holding steady, the EUR/USD is very likely to tilt UP. Remember trading is a game of probability and this analysis could go wrong but technical and fundamental analysis are suggesting strong bullish movement.
Long
by Sully-X
2
EURUSD Bearish ideaWe are in a weekly fair value gap that we have balance and potentially collected orders to prepare for a potential drop in price. We are anticipating a quarterly shift for the month of July were we could be targeting downside liquidity that is in open float. * Fundamentals: -Interest rate differentials shows us that USD interest rate of 4.5 is higher than the interest rate EUR 2.15 which lead to the longer fundamental frame work of price correcting to the higher dollar rate to the euro. -The COT report also indicates to us that there is huge buying of Dollar by the commercials and a huge amount of selling of the EUR by commercials which can lead us to assume potential weaker dollar. *Targeting: -We are looking for the low of last month (June) to be taken out as well as even potentially reaching to the implied weekly fair value gap.
Short
by That_Guy_Trades
7
EURUSD OUTLOOK 8 - 11 JULYNFP and unemployment rate came out bullish for the dollar which caused that big push to the down side. The job market is still holding well thus we are less likely to see the FED cut rates. Other economic data is still showing that the dollar is weaker against the euro so I'm not going to change my direction bias just yet. Technical analysis also clearly shows that we are still bullish on EURUSD. We don't have much fundamental data coming out this week so I'm anticipating price to continue lower to give a deeper pullback off of last weeks data, Then next week depending how CPI, PPI and Retails sales go we will get a clearer picture on how to trade the pair. Last week's 4H outlook is still valid and is more useful when looking to execute trades. This daily Analysis just gives the bigger picture for more of a swing setup analysis
Long
by Keyserfx
1
EU may stop rising soon. Closes to W1 downtrend!1. Key points for reversal coming: The bullish wave on the weekly (W1) timeframe has been rising for quite a long time and has extended significantly. It is approaching the downtrend zone on the weekly/monthly (W1/MN) chart. There is a twisted Kumo top in the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating potential indecision or reversal. The current structure may be forming the right shoulder of a Quasimodo pattern. The TDI (Traders Dynamic Index) momentum indicator is showing a strong overbought condition. 2. Plan: Sell around 1.1950!
Short
by Bighandle
3
Mastering Risk Management: The Trader’s Real EdgeYou’ve all heard it, “Cut your losses and let your winners run.” Simple words — but living by them is what separates survivors from blown accounts. Here’s some tips on how to approach risk management when trading: ☑️ Risk is always predefined: Before I click Buy or Sell, I know exactly how much I’m willing to lose. If you don’t define risk upfront, the market will do it for you. ☑️ Position sizing: Never risk more than 1–2% of your account per trade. Small losses mean you can keep taking high‑probability setups without fear. ☑️ Always use a stop‑loss: No stop? You’re not trading — you’re gambling. ☑️ Stop‑loss discipline: Place stops where the market proves you wrong — not where it “feels comfortable.” Then leave them alone. ☑️ Focus on risk/reward, not win rate: A 40% win rate can still be profitable if your average reward outweighs your risk. ☑️ Risk/reward ratio: Only take trades with at least a 2:1 or 3:1 potential. You don’t need to win every trade — your winners should pay for your losers (and more). Remember: “It’s not about being right all the time. It’s about not losing big when you’re wrong.” Risk management won’t make your trades perfect — but it will keep you trading tomorrow. And in this game, staying in the game is everything. 💭 How do you handle risk in your trading? Drop your strategy or tip in the comments — let’s share and learn together! 👇 Thanks again for all the likes/boosts, we appreciate the support! All the best for a good week ahead. Trade safe. BluetonaFX
Education
by BluetonaFX
2