EURUSD Healthy Correction Could Set Up Next Bullish LegEURUSD continues to trade within a strong bullish structure, marked by a consistent sequence of higher highs and higher lows across multiple timeframes. The pair recently tested a significant resistance zone around $1.18, which acted as a swing high and has since been defended by sellers. This rejection has led to a short-term pause in the uptrend, with price now consolidating around the value area high, a critical area on the volume profile that typically precedes either continuation or a corrective move.
From a technical standpoint, a pullback from the current level would be healthy, especially given the extended nature of the recent move. The ideal retracement zone lies between the 0.618 Fibonacci level, the point of control (POC), and the 200-period moving average — all of which converge to form a strong demand region. A revisit of this zone would offer a textbook opportunity for the formation of a higher low, which would preserve the existing bullish structure and invite renewed buying interest.
A correction into this region would not indicate weakness but rather reinforce the strength of the trend. It allows for momentum reset and offers a more sustainable base for the next potential move higher, potentially targeting a breakout above the $1.18 swing high.
As long as price action remains above the previous higher low and these key support zones hold, the bullish bias remains intact, and traders may look for long opportunities on signs of a reversal within the corrective zone.
EURUSD trade ideas
EU may stop rising soon. Closes to W1 downtrend!1. Key points for reversal coming:
The bullish wave on the weekly (W1) timeframe has been rising for quite a long time and has extended significantly.
It is approaching the downtrend zone on the weekly/monthly (W1/MN) chart.
There is a twisted Kumo top in the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating potential indecision or reversal.
The current structure may be forming the right shoulder of a Quasimodo pattern.
The TDI (Traders Dynamic Index) momentum indicator is showing a strong overbought condition.
2. Plan: Sell around 1.1950!
EURUSD 30Min Engaged ( Bullish Entry Detected )➕ Objective: Precision Volume Execution
Time Frame: 30-Minute Warfare
Entry Protocol: Only after volume-verified breakout
🩸 Bullish Wave Coming From : 1.17400
➗ Hanzo Protocol: Volume-Tiered Entry Authority
➕ Zone Activated: Dynamic market pressure detected.
The level isn’t just price — it’s a memory of where they moved size.
Volume is rising beneath the surface — not noise, but preparation.
🔥 Tactical Note:
We wait for the energy signature — when volume betrays intention.
The trap gets set. The weak follow. We execute.
EURUSD 30Min Engaged ( Bullish Entry Detected )
EURO - After movement up, price will drop to support lineHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Recently price started to grow inside a rising channel, where it some time traded below the support area and soon bounced up.
Price broke $1.1455 level and rose to the resistance line of the channel, after which it turned around and made correction movement.
Next, price some time traded near $1.1455 level and then bounced and continued to move up inside the channel.
In a short time Euro rose to $1.1700 level, which coincided with a support area, and some time trades between this level.
Then the price broke this level and continued to move up, until it almost reached the resistance line of the channel and started to fall.
Now, I think the Euro can rise a little and then continue to fall to $1.1610 support line of the channel, breaking $1.1700 level.
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EURUSD Bounce on the 4H MA100 eyes 1.2000.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the May 12 Low. Right now it is expanding its 3rd Bearish Leg of this structure, with the previous two reaching at least either the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) or the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level before rebounding.
As a result, we expect a rebound soon around the 1.16500 level to start the new Bullish Leg. The last two peaked on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension, which gives us a clear Target at 1.2000.
Notice also that every time the 4H MACD formed a Bullish Cross below the 0.0 mark, it was a confirmed buy signal. Use that to your advantage.
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EUR/USD Technical ReversalThe daily EUR/USD chart shows a clear rejection at the 1.1830 resistance, aligned with the 0% Fibonacci level, following a sustained upward move. The rejection candlestick pattern, combined with the formation of an ascending channel, suggests buyer exhaustion and a potential start of a correction.
Fibonacci projections indicate key support zones at 1.1198 (38.2%), 1.1000 (50%), and 1.0800 (61.8%). A sustained break below the ascending trendline and the intermediate support zone (highlighted in yellow) would reinforce the correction scenario, with a potential target at 1.0176 (100% Fibonacci).
Decreasing volume and the lack of new significant highs further support the reversal hypothesis. Momentum analysis (RSI and MACD, if present) should be monitored for additional confirmation of the weakening bullish trend.
From a fundamental perspective, the correction may be triggered by divergences in ECB and Fed monetary policies, as well as recent macroeconomic data favoring the US dollar.
EUR/USD is showing clear technical signs of reversal after rejection at a key resistance. Loss of the 1.10 and 1.08 supports could accelerate the correction toward 1.0176. Close monitoring of upcoming candles and momentum indicators is recommended for confirmation of the move.
Confirming EURUSD corrective downtrend✏️EURUSD is trading in a downtrend channel. SELL signal is triggered at the current price around 1.172 as the H4 candle failed to break 1.176 and confirmed the Sellers' entry into the market clearly. Target for the downtrend is at 1.145, the Sellers' strength needs to overcome the Break out zone of 1.163 first.
📈 Key level
Support 1.163-1.146
Resistance 1.176
SELL DCA Trigger: Break 1.163
BUY Trigger: The price trades about 1.163.
EUR/USD – Smart Money Trap at 1.18? Massive Rejection Ahead 1. Technical Context
The pair has been moving inside a well-defined bullish channel since May, forming higher highs and higher lows. Price is currently hovering around 1.1718, approaching the upper boundary of the channel and a key weekly supply zone (1.1750–1.1850).
➡️ Potential scenario:
A short bullish extension toward 1.1780–1.1820 to trigger stop hunts, followed by a bearish rejection toward 1.1500, and potentially 1.1380.
The daily RSI is overbought (>70), suggesting a likely short-term correction.
2. Retail Sentiment
80% of retail traders are short, with an average entry around 1.1318.
This signals a liquidity cluster above current highs, increasing the likelihood of a fake bullish breakout followed by a sell-off.
➡️ Contrarian insight: Retail heavily short → market may push higher first to wipe them out before reversing lower.
3. COT Report – USD Index (DXY)
Non-commercials (speculators) increased their short exposure on USD (+3,134).
Commercials cut their short positions (-1,994), indicating a potential bottoming on the dollar.
➡️ Conclusion: USD strength could return soon → bearish pressure for EUR/USD.
4. COT Report – EUR FX
Non-commercials increased longs on EUR (+2,980) and sharply reduced shorts (-6,602) → market is now heavily net long.
Commercials remain net short (581,664 vs 417,363 longs).
➡️ Over-leveraged spec longs → vulnerable to downside squeeze if macro sentiment shifts.
5. Seasonality
June tends to be mildly bullish for EUR/USD.
July historically shows even stronger upward performance over the last 5–10 years.
➡️ Shorts are high risk in the very short term, but a bearish setup is likely in the second half of July, especially if price action confirms.
6. Trading Outlook
📍 Short-Term Bias: Neutral to bullish toward 1.1780–1.1820
📍 Mid-Term Bias: Bearish on rejection from supply area and break of channel
🎯 Key Levels:
1.1780–1.1850: critical decision zone (liquidity + weekly supply)
1.1500: first key support
1.1380: next downside target (demand zone + previous POC)
📌 Final Conclusion
The most likely play is a short setup from 1.1780–1.1850 on strong rejection, supported by:
Extreme retail positioning (80% short),
COT pointing to USD recovery,
Extended technical structure,
Overbought RSI on the daily chart.
EURUSD h4 update ⚠️ Current Outlook: Reversal Zone Hit
• Price tapped into the strong RESISTANCE zone (~1.1800), failing to break higher.
• Market structure BOS (Break of Structure) confirms bearish intent.
• FVG (Fair Value Gap) likely to act as a short-term liquidity trap.
📍 Disrupted Bearish Flow:
1. Price rejects resistance aggressively ✅
2. Pullback into FVG may trigger a liquidity hunt 🧲
3. Fake bounce → Smart Money re-entry expected 👀
4. Target levels:
• 🥅 TARGET: 1.1550 zone (first major support)
• 🎯 LONG TARGET: 1.1200 zone (high probability zone for HTF buyers)
🔁 Bear Trap Setup Possibility:
• After hitting the LONG TARGET, price could reverse sharply.
• Watch for accumulation signs and deviation below key levels.
⸻
🔥 Key Zones to Watch:
• 🔳 Resistance: 1.1790–1.1820
• 🟦 FVG Retest Zone: 1.1630–1.1660
• 📉 Target Zone: 1.1500–1.1550
• 🚨 Long-Term Demand Zone: 1.1180–1.123
EUR/USD (Euro / U.S. Dollar) 2-hour chart analysis.EUR/USD (Euro / U.S. Dollar) 2-hour chart analysis, here's the breakdown:
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📈 Chart Setup Observations:
The pair is showing a bullish breakout from a descending triangle or falling wedge pattern.
Price is above the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting a potential shift to bullish momentum.
There are two clearly marked target points on your chart.
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🎯 Target Levels:
1. Target Point 1 (TP1): Approximately 1.78000
2. Target Point 2 (TP2): Approximately 1.18300
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🔰 Support Zone / Potential Stop-Loss:
Around 1.17200, where recent consolidation and trendline support can be seen.
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✅ Summary:
If the bullish breakout holds and momentum continues, the pair could reach:
TP1: ~1.78000 (short-term target)
TP2: ~1.18300 (medium-term target)
EUR/USD technical and fundamental analysis for next 2 days.Hello Traders,
This whole analysis is based on 1 hour time frame.
Indicators used for technical analysis:
EMA
RSI
VWAP anchor
Volume Profile
Fibonacci retracement and extension
In 1 hour time frame price is forming an ascending triangle which is likely to break out as EMA, and vwap are signalling bullish momentum.
If price breaks resistance at $1.17832 its likely to go up till $1.18100.
RSI is in the middle so it has ample room to move in both directions, So if trend line support breaks the price might move downwards to the support level at &1.17628 but the probability of this is very low.
Volume profile is highlighting the current price with the most volume so it makes it a critical point for movement in any direction.
Fundamental Analysis:
The Fed (US Central Bank) is getting soft: On July 9th, we'll see notes from their last meeting. They're expected to sound pretty dovish, which just means they're worried about the US economy and might cut interest rates soon.
Trump's Tariffs are back (July 9th deadline): If he puts new taxes on imported goods, it makes global trade messy and creates a lot of worry about the US economy. When people worry about the US, they tend to sell US Dollars.
The Dollar is already weak & It's already been losing strength.
Because the US Dollar is set to get a lot weaker from those big events on July 9th, and the Euro is holding steady, the EUR/USD is very likely to tilt UP.
Remember trading is a game of probability and this analysis could go wrong but technical and fundamental analysis are suggesting strong bullish movement.
EURUSD OUTLOOK 8 - 11 JULYNFP and unemployment rate came out bullish for the dollar which caused that big push to the down side. The job market is still holding well thus we are less likely to see the FED cut rates.
Other economic data is still showing that the dollar is weaker against the euro so I'm not going to change my direction bias just yet. Technical analysis also clearly shows that we are still bullish on EURUSD.
We don't have much fundamental data coming out this week so I'm anticipating price to continue lower to give a deeper pullback off of last weeks data, Then next week depending how CPI, PPI and Retails sales go we will get a clearer picture on how to trade the pair.
Last week's 4H outlook is still valid and is more useful when looking to execute trades. This daily Analysis just gives the bigger picture for more of a swing setup analysis
Mastering Risk Management: The Trader’s Real EdgeYou’ve all heard it,
“Cut your losses and let your winners run.”
Simple words — but living by them is what separates survivors from blown accounts.
Here’s some tips on how to approach risk management when trading:
☑️ Risk is always predefined: Before I click Buy or Sell, I know exactly how much I’m willing to lose. If you don’t define risk upfront, the market will do it for you.
☑️ Position sizing: Never risk more than 1–2% of your account per trade. Small losses mean you can keep taking high‑probability setups without fear.
☑️ Always use a stop‑loss: No stop? You’re not trading — you’re gambling.
☑️ Stop‑loss discipline: Place stops where the market proves you wrong — not where it “feels comfortable.” Then leave them alone.
☑️ Focus on risk/reward, not win rate: A 40% win rate can still be profitable if your average reward outweighs your risk.
☑️ Risk/reward ratio: Only take trades with at least a 2:1 or 3:1 potential. You don’t need to win every trade — your winners should pay for your losers (and more).
Remember:
“It’s not about being right all the time. It’s about not losing big when you’re wrong.”
Risk management won’t make your trades perfect — but it will keep you trading tomorrow.
And in this game, staying in the game is everything.
💭 How do you handle risk in your trading? Drop your strategy or tip in the comments — let’s share and learn together! 👇
Thanks again for all the likes/boosts, we appreciate the support!
All the best for a good week ahead. Trade safe.
BluetonaFX
EUR/USD: A Perfect Storm for BullsThis is a high-conviction long setup based on a powerful combination of macroeconomic divergence and a confirmed multi-year technical breakout.
The Non-Farm Payrolls report has now been released, and the resulting price dip has created what I believe is an ideal entry opportunity to align with the dominant bullish trend.
The Fundamental Why 📰
NFP Aftermath: Yesterday's NFP report was a mixed bag that ultimately reinforces the case for Fed rate cuts. The headline number beat expectations, causing an initial USD rally and a dip in EUR/USD. However, the underlying details like wage growth were soft. Crucially, the market continues to price in a 96% probability of a Fed rate cut by September, a figure that was unchanged by the data. The core driver of USD weakness—a dovish Fed—remains firmly intact.
Resilient EUR 🇪🇺: In contrast, the ECB has signaled it is at or near the end of its easing cycle. Economic data from core Eurozone countries is stabilizing, providing the Euro with relative strength.
Risk-On Sentiment 💹: The broader market remains in a "risk-on" mood, which is typically negative for the safe-haven USD. Gold is soaring and equities are near all-time highs, confirming the anti-dollar flow.
The Technical Picture 📊
The Secular Breakout 🚀: The most significant event is the breakout of a decade-long downtrend resistance line. This is a major structural shift. The pair has also achieved a monthly and quarterly close above the critical 1.1500 handle, turning a historic resistance level into a new support floor.
The Impulsive Uptrend 🌊: On the 4-hour chart, the price is in a clear ascending channel. The post-NFP dip represents a healthy correction within this uptrend, bringing price back toward key support.
Key Levels 🔑:
Support Zone: The dip has brought price directly into the key support confluence between 1.1700 and 1.1760, making this an ideal area to enter long.
Resistance Zone: Major resistance still sits at 1.1900, making it a prudent take-profit target.
Strategy & Risk Management 🧠
The stronger-than-expected NFP headline has provided the exact pullback this strategy was designed for. The dip presents a prime opportunity to buy into the dominant uptrend at a more favorable price. Instead of chasing the market, we are now positioned to enter on a technically sound correction.
Good luck, and trade safe!
Trade Parameters ✅
Pair: EUR/USD
Direction: Long / Buy 🟢
Entry Type: Limit Order
Entry Price: 1.1745
Stop-Loss: 1.1685 (60 pips) 🔴
Take-Profit: 1.1895 (150 pips) 🎯
Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.5 : 1