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ECB Cuts Rates. EUR/USD Spikes to 1.5-Month HighECB Cuts Rates. EUR/USD Spikes to 1.5-Month High Yesterday, as widely expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the eighth time since May 2024. According to ForexFactory, the main refinancing rate was lowered from 2.40% to 2.15% (having stood at 4.50% in May 2024). According to Reuters: → ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that interest rates are now at a “good level”, despite the extremely high uncertainty caused by tariff threats from President Donald Trump. → Following the press conference, markets interpreted the message as a sign that the ECB is unlikely to cut rates again at its next meeting in July. In response to the ECB's decision, the EUR/USD rate jumped to its highest level in a month and a half, but later retreated (as indicated by the arrow) back to previous levels. Technical Analysis of the EUR/USD Chart Four days ago, while analysing the EUR/USD chart, we: → drew an ascending channel; → suggested that bullish momentum could push the EUR/USD rate up to the psychological level of 1.1500 during the current week. In fact, at yesterday’s peak, the rate came very close to 1.1500. However, a candlestick with a long upper shadow had formed on the EUR/USD chart, by the end of the day. Additionally, this morning, the 1.1450 level has acted as a resistance zone. This suggests bearish activity, which could pull the rate down towards the lower boundary of the local channel (outlined in black), and possibly even attempt a breakout below it. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
1
What Is a Morning Star Pattern & How Can You Use It in Trading?What Is a Morning Star Pattern, and How Can You Use It in Trading? The morning star candlestick is a popular price action pattern that technical analysts and traders use to identify potential trading opportunities. It indicates a reversal from a bearish to a bullish trend and is a valuable addition to any trader's toolkit. In this article, we will cover all the technical aspects of the morning star candlestick pattern. What Is the Morning Star Candlestick Pattern? The morning star in technical analysis is a reversal formation that appears at the end of a downtrend and signals a trend reversal. It consists of three candles. To identify it on the chart, you should look for the following: 1. Downtrend: The market should be in a downtrend, and the first candle should be long and bearish. 2. Indecision: The second candle is usually expected to have a gap down, but gaps are uncommon in forex. Therefore, a small-bodied candle is considered sufficient. It's worth noting it can be either bullish or bearish, but if it’s bullish, the signal is stronger. 3. Significant increase: The third candle should be strong and bullish and close above the midpoint of the first bearish one. If it forms with a gap up, the buy signal is considered stronger. When Morning Star Candlestick Patterns Occur Traders can identify the morning star candlestick pattern in stocks, forex pairs, commodities, and cryptocurrencies*. It may also be observed across various timeframes, from minutes to weeks. Generally speaking, a morning star pattern can be considered more reliable when it appears on a higher timeframe. For instance, a morning star candlestick pattern has more significance when it occurs over three days vs three minutes, given the increased amount of price action and market participation reflected over longer periods. Psychology Behind the Pattern The morning star reversal pattern reflects a shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish. Initially, a strong bearish candle indicates prevailing selling pressure. The second candle, with its small body, suggests indecision as the market stabilises and neither bulls nor bears dominate. This pause indicates that sellers are losing momentum. The third morning star candle, a strong bullish one, confirms the shift as buyers take control, driving prices higher. This pattern signals that the downtrend is likely exhausted, and a potential reversal is underway due to increasing buyer confidence. Trading with the Morning Star Traders can use the following steps to trade this setup: 1. Identify the setup: Look for a setup on the chart formed after a solid downtrend. 2. Confirmation: After identifying the formation, traders should confirm it before entering a long position. 3. Enter a long position: Consider entering a long position once the formation is confirmed. 4. Determine a take-profit target: Although candlesticks don’t provide specific entry and exit points, traders may consider the closest resistance level to take potential profit. 5. Monitor the trade: Continuously monitor the trade and adjust the stop-loss and take-profit levels as needed based on market conditions. What Is the Morning Star Candlestick Strategy? The morning star trading strategy leverages the formation's ability to signal a bullish reversal after a downtrend. The formation's reliability increases when it occurs at a support level and is confirmed by a momentum indicator like the RSI or MACD. Entry: - Traders look for the full morning star to form at a support level. - They then look for a confirmatory bullish signal from a momentum indicator, such as RSI showing oversold conditions, a bullish MACD crossover, or a bullish divergence in either. - Traders may wait for additional confirmation, like RSI moving back above 30, or enter on the close of the third candle in the pattern. Stop Loss: - A stop loss might be set below the swing low of the setup. - Alternatively, traders may place the stop loss beyond the lower boundary of the established support level. Take Profit: - Profits might be taken at a predetermined risk-reward ratio, like 2:1 or 3:1. - Traders also often aim for an opposing resistance level where a further reversal might occur. Morning Star and Other Formations Traders should not confuse the morning star candle formation with other formations, such as the evening star, which is the complete opposite. Doji Morning Star In a traditional morning star reversal pattern, the candle that appears in the middle of the formation has a small real body, meaning there is a clear difference between the opening and closing prices. In a morning doji star formation, the second candlestick has characteristics of a doji, where the opening and closing prices are very close to each other, resulting in a very small real body. This reflects the indecision as neither bulls nor bears can take control of the market. The doji setup is less common than the traditional formation, but it still signals a potential upward movement after a prolonged downtrend. Evening Star In contrast to a morning setup, an evening star is a bearish setup occurring after an uptrend. It also consists of three candles – a long bullish one, a small-body one (it can also be a doji), and a long bearish one that closes below the midpoint of the first bullish candle. This suggests that the market is about to turn down. Benefits and Limitations of the Morning Star Candle The morning star is a useful tool for traders seeking to identify potential market reversals, but it does come with some benefits and limitations. Benefits - Strong Reversal Signal: Indicates a bullish reversal after a downtrend, helping traders anticipate upward moves. - Broad Applicability: Effective across various financial instruments such as forex, stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies*. - Timeframe Flexibility: It can be observed on different timeframes, from intraday to weekly charts. Limitations - False Signals: Like all patterns, it can produce false signals, especially in volatile markets. - Confirmation Needed: A morning star pattern entry requires confirmation from additional indicators or formations to improve accuracy. - Experience Required: Identifying the formation correctly and interpreting its signals requires experience and a good understanding of price action. Final Thoughts While candlestick formations such as the morning star can be useful for traders to identify potential trading opportunities, it is crucial to remember that they are not foolproof and should not be the sole choice of market participants when making their trading decisions. Traders should also incorporate technical indicators and develop risk management techniques to potentially minimise losses. FAQ What Is a Morning Star in Trading? The meaning of a morning star in trading refers to a bullish reversal formation consisting of three candles. It appears at the end of a downtrend, indicating a potential shift to an uptrend. The setup includes a long bearish candle, a small-bodied candle, and a long bullish candle. Is the Morning Star Bullish or Bearish? It is a bullish candlestick pattern that indicates a potential reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend in the market. It suggests that the selling pressure is subsiding, and buying pressure is beginning to take over. What Does the Morning Star Pattern Indicate? It is a three-candle price action, often indicating a bullish reversal in the market. It suggests that selling pressure has been exhausted, and buyers are starting to gain control of the market. How Do You Read the Morning Star Pattern? To read the morning star formation, traders should look for the following characteristics: a long bearish candle formed in a solid downtrend and followed by a bullish or bearish candle with a small real body, which in turn is followed by a long bullish candle closing above the midpoint of the first one. What Is the Opposite of Morning Star? The opposite of a morning star is the evening star, a bearish reversal pattern. It appears at the end of an uptrend, signalling a potential shift to a downtrend. The morning and evening stars are similar, except the latter mirrors the former, consisting of a long bullish candle, a small-bodied candle, and a long bearish candle. *Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
euro/usdTRADE 5 i belive that e/u is deffently bullish but i do see a reversal happening allthough i belive this pair to retrace you could catch the pull back to pull the trigger on a new higher higher but i wouldnt personally jump in on the trade on this one i would wait to see where the retracment goes before i jump in remmeber this best part of trading is LEARNING WHEN NOT TO TRADE protect your wealth people i cant stress enought how manyt account i have blown by not knowing when to shut my computer and waiting for a better entry saying that i do belive e/u will go down to come back up lets see where it goes who know I COULD BE WRONG
Short
by andrevella
1
EUR/USD Bulls in Control... But the Trap Is Set at 1.1600? 🇺🇸 EUR/USD – Technical & Macro Outlook EUR/USD has posted an impressive rally over the past few weeks, driven by a combination of technical and macro factors. It is currently trading around 1.1586, right at the edge of a major supply zone where previous sharp rejections and reversals have taken place. 🔍 Technical Analysis Price action remains within a well-defined ascending channel that began in mid-April, fueling the bullish move from the 1.07 lows. The current daily candle is showing signs of exhaustion within the 1.1550–1.1600 resistance zone, with upper wicks and declining volume. RSI is in a high-neutral zone but not yet overbought, leaving room for more upside — but also increasing the probability of a technical pullback. 🔁 Key Levels: Primary resistance: 1.1600 (multi-touch supply area) Support 1: 1.1460–1.1430 (previous resistance, now potential support) Support 2: 1.1300–1.1270 (demand zone + channel base) 📉 COT Report – June 3, 2025 Non-Commercials (speculators) remain net-long with over 200,000 contracts, though both long (-1,540) and short (-4,830) positions saw reductions. This suggests a bullish structure with early signs of profit-taking. Commercials are heavily net-short, with 575,000 short contracts versus 437,000 long — a structurally bearish stance from physical market participants. Open interest increased significantly by +20,813, pointing to renewed speculative participation and potential volatility. 🧭 Retail Sentiment Retail traders are heavily short (80%) with an average entry around 1.1253. This contrarian behavior is typically supportive of continued upside pressure — especially if price holds above key supports. 📅 Seasonality – June Historical averages over 10, 15, and 20 years show a slightly bullish tendency in June. The 2- and 5-year patterns suggest more neutral to mildly bearish behavior. This supports a consolidation or corrective pullback, without ruling out higher moves during the summer rally. 🎯 Trading Conclusion Current bias: Moderately bullish, with rising pullback risks near 1.1600 Possible setup: Tactical short between 1.1580–1.1610 if confirmed by bearish price action Target: 1.1430–1.1300 Bullish scenario remains valid unless we break below 1.1270 📌 Summary The bullish trend is strong but technically extended. Speculative positions remain net-long but are starting to unwind. The retail crowd is still betting against the move, which favors bulls. However, structural resistance calls for caution — a pullback could be imminent.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
EURUSD| Buy Flow In PlayGot price respecting my top-down flow — 4H to 5M is in full alignment right now. We swept key liquidity levels and price held structure clean, giving me reason to look for a buy continuation. Could’ve posted a more detailed breakdown (order blocks, FVGs, etc.), but I’ll save that sauce for another time. Just curious what y’all see here — feel free to share your take on this play. I’m always open to sharp minds tapping in. Let’s see how this unfolds. 🧠💧 #EURUSD #SmartMoneyConcepts #LiquiditySweep #PriceActionTrading #TopDownAnalysis #InducementKing Bless Trading!
Long
by Juicemannn
1
EUR/USD – Bullish Smart Money SetupAfter a clean break of structure to the upside (BOS), EUR/USD is expected to retrace into the unmitigated demand zone before continuing higher. Liquidity sits above the recent Weak High, making it a prime target for institutions. 📍 Buy Limit: 1.14100 🛑 SL: 1.13870 🎯 TP1: 1.14550 🎯 TP2: 1.14800+ Structure: Bullish ✅ OB Unmitigated: ✅ RSI Neutral-Bullish ✅ Liquidity Above: Yes ✅ "Wait for mitigation and confirmation before execution."
Long
by cdsolta
1
Stronger U.S. JOLTS Data Pressures EURUSD!!!EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) failed to break the Resistance zone($1.1487-$1.1424) and started to fall again , breaking the Support lines . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that EURUSD has managed to complete the main wave X of the Double Three Correction(WXY) structure . Just moments ago, the U.S. JOLTS Job Openings data was released. ------------------------------- Actual: 7.39M Forecast: 7.11M Previous: 7.19M The stronger-than-expected JOLTS figure at 7.39 million signals a resilient labor market. This reduces recession fears and increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for longer. Bullish for the U.S. Dollar( TVC:DXY ) Bearish pressure could hit EURUSD, especially if it's approaching the key resistance zone. ------------------------------- I expect EURUSD to start to fall again after the pullback to the Support lines and to fall to the targets I have specified on the chart. Note: If EURUSD touches $1.14580(Stop Loss(SL)), we can expect a failure of the Resistance zone($1.1487-$1.1424). Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Euro/U.S. Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
14
Has EUR/USD entered a medium-term correction?The EUR/USD has experienced a corrective pullback in a range-bound manner, touching the 1.14 level during the European session, approaching the Bollinger Band Midline support at 1.129. Earlier, the exchange rate retreated after encountering resistance near the 1.1450 key resistance level. Influenced by Euro-U.S. economic data divergences, the broader European market weakened, exerting downward pressure on the euro. Ahead of this week's ECB monetary policy meeting, the pair is likely to remain range-bound between the 1.1350 support and 1.1500 resistance levels. If the ECB signals further monetary easing, the exchange rate may decline to test the 1.1350 support zone, with a potential extension of the downward move targeting the Bollinger Band Midline at 1.1292. Conversely, if the market deems the rate-cut expectations to be fully priced in and the ECB delivers a neutral policy stance, this could prompt the EUR/USD to retest the 1.1500 resistance level. Humans need to breathe, and perfect trading is like breathing—maintaining flexibility without needing to trade every market swing. The secret to profitable trading lies in implementing simple rules: repeating simple tasks consistently and enforcing them strictly over the long term. Trading Strategy: buy@1.13500-1.13600 TP:1.13800-1.13900
Long
by Ashbur
1
EURUSD Gearing Up for Next Leg Up – DXY Weakens After PPI MissToday, key U.S. economic indexes were released, providing fresh insights into inflationary pressures and the state of the labor market: Core PPI m/m: Actual: 0.1% | Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: -0.4% Lower than expected – suggests weaker underlying producer inflation. PPI m/m: Actual: 0.1% | Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: -0.5% Slight miss – overall inflation at the producer level remains soft. Unemployment Claims: Actual: 248K | Forecast: 242K | Previous: 247K Slightly higher than forecast – signaling some cooling in the labor market. Market Outlook : These data releases point toward cooling inflation and softness in job growth, which may strengthen the dovish narrative around the Fed’s next move. DXY Index ( TVC:DXY ) is under pressure, and EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) is showing signs of bullish momentum . ----------------------------------------------------------- Now let's take a look at the EURUSD chart on the 1-hour time frame . EURUSD is trading near the Heavy Resistance zone($1.182-$1.160) and Monthly Resistance(2) . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , EURUSD appears to be completing microwave 4 . Microwave 4 could be completed at one of the Fibonacci levels . I expect EURUSD to attack the Heavy Resistance zone($1.182-$1.160) at least once more after completing microwave 4 and could even rise to the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) . Note: If EURUSD touches $1.1446 , we can expect more dump. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Euro/U.S. Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
1
EURUSD: Perfect spot to short.EURUSD is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 62.082, MACD = 0.004, ADX = 31.112) as it is trading inside a Channel Up since the May 12th low. The 4H RSI sequence suggests that based on the Channel's first bullish wave, the market is now on the 4th count, which was previously the top (as close to the 1.786 Fibonacci extension as possible). We turn bearish here, targeting the 0.786 Fib level at the bottom of the Channel Up (TP = 1.13550). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
Euro can reach resistance line of channel and make correctionHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Previously, price was trading inside a downward channel, gradually declining from the resistance line while forming a series of lower highs and lower lows. During that phase, sellers were clearly in control, and every attempt to grow was met with pressure near the channel’s upper boundary. However, that trend shifted once the price broke through the resistance line, confirming the end of the bearish momentum and the start of a new upward structure. After the breakout, EUR entered an upward channel, supported by multiple bullish impulses and consistent reactions near the support line. Price continued to rise, pushing through the support area and current support level around 1.1420. This upward movement showed strong bullish conviction, especially after the clean breakout and consolidation inside the channel body. Now the pair has approached the resistance line of the rising channel, where previous impulses typically slowed down or reversed. Given the channel geometry and past market behavior, I expect Euro to react to this upper boundary and move downward. For this reason, I set my TP at 1.1325, which aligns with the support line of the upward channel. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀 Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Short
by LegionQ8
1
EURUSD Analysis Today: Technical and Order Flow Analysis !In this video I will be sharing my EURUSD analysis today, by providing my complete technical and order flow analysis, so you can watch it to possibly improve your forex trading skillset. The video is structured in 3 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the COT data analysis, so how the big payers in market are moving their orders, and to do this I will be using my customized proprietary software and then I will be putting together these two different types of analysis.
by Transparent_Fx_Academy
MarketBreakdown | EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDCHF, EURCAD Here are the updates & outlook for multiple instruments in my watch list. 1️⃣ #EURUSD daily time frame 🇪🇺🇺🇸 Though the pair remains quite weak for the last few days, I strongly believe that bulls have unrealized potential. The pair may continue rising and reach the underlined yellow resistance soon. 2️⃣ #AUDUSD daily time frame 🇦🇺🇺🇸 The price is testing a significant horizontal resistance. Its bullish breakout will provide a strong bullish signal. The pair will go way higher then. 3️⃣ #USDCHF daily time frame 🇺🇸🇨🇭 The price is stuck within a narrow consolidation range. I think that a sideways movement is going to continue and the price will drop to the support of the range soon. 4️⃣ #EURCAD daily time frame 🇪🇺🇨🇦 The price action is contracting within a symmetrical triangle pattern. Such a pattern signifies a deep indecision. A breakout of one of its boundaries will indicate the side of the next market move. Do you agree with my market breakdown? ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by VasilyTrader
1
EURUSDHello Traders! 👋 What are your thoughts on EURUSD? EURUSD is still trading below a key resistance zone, showing signs of weakness and lack of strong bullish momentum. At this stage, it seems unlikely that the pair will break above the resistance in the short term. We expect a downward correction toward the specified support levels, before any potential resumption of the uptrend. Despite short-term weakness, our long-term outlook remains bullish, and this pullback could offer a better entry opportunity in line with the broader trend. Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Short
by HAMED_AZ
2