EURUSD – Bearish Reversal Confirmed After Structural BreakEURUSD has shifted out of its bullish environment after a sustained rally inside a clean ascending channel. Price recently rejected a resistance zone that capped previous buying pressure and has now started to rotate downward. This marks the first serious challenge to the trend and sets the tone for a potential bearish phase.
Channel Breakdown and Price Behavior
The ascending channel had been respected for several sessions, guiding price upward with consistent higher highs and higher lows. The recent breakdown from this structure is significant, as it shows the market is no longer willing to support higher prices within that controlled environment. This type of breakout often signals a loss of momentum and increased volatility in the opposite direction.
Break of the Low and Shift in Structure
After breaking the channel, price also took out a major internal low, which had previously held during retracements. This is a key signal of a structural shift, confirming that the uptrend has been interrupted. When price breaks a low that buyers had been defending, it shows sellers have stepped in with conviction and are likely aiming lower targets.
Short-Term Target and Reaction Zone
The first area of interest sits just below current price where a support shelf and price inefficiencies line up. This zone, marked with the dollar sign symbol on the chart, may attract a short-term reaction. If buyers are still present, this is where they would likely try to step in. However, the rejection from resistance and the structural break suggest this level could eventually give way.
Imbalance Zone Below and Liquidity Target
If that support fails, the next high-probability draw is the large untested imbalance sitting further below. This zone has remained untouched since the rally began and represents unfinished business for the market. Price often seeks out these inefficiencies, especially after trend shifts, making it a natural target for sellers if momentum continues.
Conclusion
EURUSD is showing clear signs of bearish pressure after rejecting resistance, breaking structure, and leaving behind unmitigated downside targets. As long as we remain below the broken low, the path of least resistance points lower. The imbalance zone below remains the key destination unless the market shows signs of reversal higher.
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EURUSD trade ideas
How to Trade Liquidity Sweep in Forex Market (SMC Trading)
I will show you a real example of trading liquidity sweep with Smart Money Concepts.
You will learn the essential SMC liquidity basics, a simple and profitable strategy to identify and trade liquidity sweep.
I will share with you an accurate entry confirmation signal that works perfectly on any Forex pair.
Liquidity Basics
In order to trade liquidity sweeps profitably, you should learn to identify significant liquidity zones.
To spot them, analyze a historic price action and find clusters of important historic key levels.
Examine a price action on EURUSD on an hourly time frame.
I underlined multiple horizontal key levels.
The price respected each level, found support on them, and rebounded.
What is so specific about these levels is that they are lying close to each other, composing a liquidity cluster.
That fact that EURUSD strongly bounced from these levels suggests that buying interest and high buying volumes were concentrated around them.
We can unite these levels and treat them as a single demand zone that has just been broken and turned into a supply zone.
After we found a valid liquidity zone, we can look for a liquidity sweep.
First, we should let the price approach that area and look for a specific price behavior then.
That is a perfect example of a liquidity sweep.
You can see that the price formed a wide range candle with a long tail.
Its high went way beyond the underlined area, but its body closed within.
In order to understand, why a liquidity sweep occurred, let's zoom in our chart and try to understand a behavior of the market participants.
Our supply zone concentrated selling orders , we assume that sellers were placing their orders across its entire length.
Their stop losses were presumably lying above that area.
Smart Money know that and with a liquidity sweep they manipulate the market, making sellers close their positions in a loss (buying back their positions from the market) and providing a liquidity for big players.
After a formation of a such a candlestick, a reliable confirmation of a saturation of the Smart Money is a formation of a strong bearish candle - a clear sign of strength of the sellers.
A bearish engulfing candle above confirmed a completion of a liquidity sweep and indicates a highly probable bearish continuation.
Your perfect sell entry is immediately after a close of such a candlestick.
Stop loss should strictly lie above the high of a liquidity sweep.
Take profit is based on a local low.
Look, how quickly the price reached the goal.
Your strategy of trading liquidity sweeps of demand zones is absolutely the same.
Let the price test a demand zone, wait for a formation of wide range bearish candle with a tail going below its lows.
Wait for a bullish imbalance candle and buy immediately then.
Stop loss will be below the low of a liquidity sweep, take profit - a local high.
This SMC strategy works on any time frame and can be applied for trading any Forex pair, Gold, Silver, Crypto and commodities.
Try it by your own and let me know your results.
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EURUSD Bounce on the 4H MA100 eyes 1.2000.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the May 12 Low. Right now it is expanding its 3rd Bearish Leg of this structure, with the previous two reaching at least either the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) or the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level before rebounding.
As a result, we expect a rebound soon around the 1.16500 level to start the new Bullish Leg. The last two peaked on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension, which gives us a clear Target at 1.2000.
Notice also that every time the 4H MACD formed a Bullish Cross below the 0.0 mark, it was a confirmed buy signal. Use that to your advantage.
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EUR/USD Technical ReversalThe daily EUR/USD chart shows a clear rejection at the 1.1830 resistance, aligned with the 0% Fibonacci level, following a sustained upward move. The rejection candlestick pattern, combined with the formation of an ascending channel, suggests buyer exhaustion and a potential start of a correction.
Fibonacci projections indicate key support zones at 1.1198 (38.2%), 1.1000 (50%), and 1.0800 (61.8%). A sustained break below the ascending trendline and the intermediate support zone (highlighted in yellow) would reinforce the correction scenario, with a potential target at 1.0176 (100% Fibonacci).
Decreasing volume and the lack of new significant highs further support the reversal hypothesis. Momentum analysis (RSI and MACD, if present) should be monitored for additional confirmation of the weakening bullish trend.
From a fundamental perspective, the correction may be triggered by divergences in ECB and Fed monetary policies, as well as recent macroeconomic data favoring the US dollar.
EUR/USD is showing clear technical signs of reversal after rejection at a key resistance. Loss of the 1.10 and 1.08 supports could accelerate the correction toward 1.0176. Close monitoring of upcoming candles and momentum indicators is recommended for confirmation of the move.
MarketBreakdown | EURUSD, DOLLAR INDEX, BITCOIN, SILVER
Here are the updates & outlook for multiple instruments in my watch list.
1️⃣ #EURUSD daily time frame 🇪🇺🇺🇸
The price started a correctional movement after it updated
a high the first of July.
The market formed a bullish flag pattern.
Your next trend-following bullish signal will be a breakout and a daily
candle close above its resistance.
2️⃣ Dollar Index #DXY daily time frame 💵
The market corrects in a bearish flag pattern.
I see a test of a significant horizontal resistance cluster now.
Your signal to see will be a bearish violation of a support
of the flag and a daily candle close below.
3️⃣ #BITCOIN #BTCUSD daily time frame
Though the price managed to update the All-Time High
yesterday, the market did not manage to close above
a current major resistance.
I believe that we will see another attempt of the market to breakthrough.
Your bullish confirmation will be a daily candle close above the underlined resistance.
4️⃣ #SILVER #XAGUSD daily time frame 🪙
The price reached an important confluence demand zone
based on a rising trend line and a horizontal key structures support.
Probabilities will be high to see a bullish movement from that.
Do you agree with my market breakdown?
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Confirming EURUSD corrective downtrend✏️EURUSD is trading in a downtrend channel. SELL signal is triggered at the current price around 1.172 as the H4 candle failed to break 1.176 and confirmed the Sellers' entry into the market clearly. Target for the downtrend is at 1.145, the Sellers' strength needs to overcome the Break out zone of 1.163 first.
📈 Key level
Support 1.163-1.146
Resistance 1.176
SELL DCA Trigger: Break 1.163
BUY Trigger: The price trades about 1.163.
EUR/USD – Smart Money Trap at 1.18? Massive Rejection Ahead 1. Technical Context
The pair has been moving inside a well-defined bullish channel since May, forming higher highs and higher lows. Price is currently hovering around 1.1718, approaching the upper boundary of the channel and a key weekly supply zone (1.1750–1.1850).
➡️ Potential scenario:
A short bullish extension toward 1.1780–1.1820 to trigger stop hunts, followed by a bearish rejection toward 1.1500, and potentially 1.1380.
The daily RSI is overbought (>70), suggesting a likely short-term correction.
2. Retail Sentiment
80% of retail traders are short, with an average entry around 1.1318.
This signals a liquidity cluster above current highs, increasing the likelihood of a fake bullish breakout followed by a sell-off.
➡️ Contrarian insight: Retail heavily short → market may push higher first to wipe them out before reversing lower.
3. COT Report – USD Index (DXY)
Non-commercials (speculators) increased their short exposure on USD (+3,134).
Commercials cut their short positions (-1,994), indicating a potential bottoming on the dollar.
➡️ Conclusion: USD strength could return soon → bearish pressure for EUR/USD.
4. COT Report – EUR FX
Non-commercials increased longs on EUR (+2,980) and sharply reduced shorts (-6,602) → market is now heavily net long.
Commercials remain net short (581,664 vs 417,363 longs).
➡️ Over-leveraged spec longs → vulnerable to downside squeeze if macro sentiment shifts.
5. Seasonality
June tends to be mildly bullish for EUR/USD.
July historically shows even stronger upward performance over the last 5–10 years.
➡️ Shorts are high risk in the very short term, but a bearish setup is likely in the second half of July, especially if price action confirms.
6. Trading Outlook
📍 Short-Term Bias: Neutral to bullish toward 1.1780–1.1820
📍 Mid-Term Bias: Bearish on rejection from supply area and break of channel
🎯 Key Levels:
1.1780–1.1850: critical decision zone (liquidity + weekly supply)
1.1500: first key support
1.1380: next downside target (demand zone + previous POC)
📌 Final Conclusion
The most likely play is a short setup from 1.1780–1.1850 on strong rejection, supported by:
Extreme retail positioning (80% short),
COT pointing to USD recovery,
Extended technical structure,
Overbought RSI on the daily chart.
EURUSD: Strong Bullish Confirmation?! 🇪🇺🇺🇸
There is a high chance that EURUSD will move up from the
underlined intraday support.
An ascending triangle formation and a violation of its neckline
indicate a strength of the buyers.
Goal - 1.1705
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EURUSD: Bearish Continuation Ahead EURUSD is expected to maintain a bearish trend following a confirmed breakout below a significant horizontal support level.
The broken structure, along with a descending trend line, creates a contracting supply zone, indicating a strong likelihood of further downward movement.
The next target is 1.1620 support
EUR/USD technical and fundamental analysis for next 2 days.Hello Traders,
This whole analysis is based on 1 hour time frame.
Indicators used for technical analysis:
EMA
RSI
VWAP anchor
Volume Profile
Fibonacci retracement and extension
In 1 hour time frame price is forming an ascending triangle which is likely to break out as EMA, and vwap are signalling bullish momentum.
If price breaks resistance at $1.17832 its likely to go up till $1.18100.
RSI is in the middle so it has ample room to move in both directions, So if trend line support breaks the price might move downwards to the support level at &1.17628 but the probability of this is very low.
Volume profile is highlighting the current price with the most volume so it makes it a critical point for movement in any direction.
Fundamental Analysis:
The Fed (US Central Bank) is getting soft: On July 9th, we'll see notes from their last meeting. They're expected to sound pretty dovish, which just means they're worried about the US economy and might cut interest rates soon.
Trump's Tariffs are back (July 9th deadline): If he puts new taxes on imported goods, it makes global trade messy and creates a lot of worry about the US economy. When people worry about the US, they tend to sell US Dollars.
The Dollar is already weak & It's already been losing strength.
Because the US Dollar is set to get a lot weaker from those big events on July 9th, and the Euro is holding steady, the EUR/USD is very likely to tilt UP.
Remember trading is a game of probability and this analysis could go wrong but technical and fundamental analysis are suggesting strong bullish movement.
EURUSD AccumulationI am looking for some accumulation here. The model can already be complete, but i would only take it if it extends into a model 2 from extreme liquidity to create more liquidity for a reversal. The supply above, followed by the strong sell off lowers the quality of this model. A supply mitigation with a slow pullback into the POI would change that.
EURUSD OUTLOOK 8 - 11 JULYNFP and unemployment rate came out bullish for the dollar which caused that big push to the down side. The job market is still holding well thus we are less likely to see the FED cut rates.
Other economic data is still showing that the dollar is weaker against the euro so I'm not going to change my direction bias just yet. Technical analysis also clearly shows that we are still bullish on EURUSD.
We don't have much fundamental data coming out this week so I'm anticipating price to continue lower to give a deeper pullback off of last weeks data, Then next week depending how CPI, PPI and Retails sales go we will get a clearer picture on how to trade the pair.
Last week's 4H outlook is still valid and is more useful when looking to execute trades. This daily Analysis just gives the bigger picture for more of a swing setup analysis
Mastering Risk Management: The Trader’s Real EdgeYou’ve all heard it,
“Cut your losses and let your winners run.”
Simple words — but living by them is what separates survivors from blown accounts.
Here’s some tips on how to approach risk management when trading:
☑️ Risk is always predefined: Before I click Buy or Sell, I know exactly how much I’m willing to lose. If you don’t define risk upfront, the market will do it for you.
☑️ Position sizing: Never risk more than 1–2% of your account per trade. Small losses mean you can keep taking high‑probability setups without fear.
☑️ Always use a stop‑loss: No stop? You’re not trading — you’re gambling.
☑️ Stop‑loss discipline: Place stops where the market proves you wrong — not where it “feels comfortable.” Then leave them alone.
☑️ Focus on risk/reward, not win rate: A 40% win rate can still be profitable if your average reward outweighs your risk.
☑️ Risk/reward ratio: Only take trades with at least a 2:1 or 3:1 potential. You don’t need to win every trade — your winners should pay for your losers (and more).
Remember:
“It’s not about being right all the time. It’s about not losing big when you’re wrong.”
Risk management won’t make your trades perfect — but it will keep you trading tomorrow.
And in this game, staying in the game is everything.
💭 How do you handle risk in your trading? Drop your strategy or tip in the comments — let’s share and learn together! 👇
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All the best for a good week ahead. Trade safe.
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