EUR/USD GET THE MONEY!Looking EUR/USD chart here are my observations:
1. Price Action & Trend Analysis
Current Price: 1.04923, indicating a downward trajectory.
The pair is clearly in a downtrend, with lower highs and lower lows being formed over the past few months.
The price is below both the 50 EMA (1.0728) and the 200 EMA (1.0832), which reinforces the bearish trend.
Recent candles show a consolidation near 1.0500, suggesting indecision or the formation of a short-term base.
2. Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance:
Immediate resistance is near 1.0532 (highlighted zone on the chart).
Further resistance lies around 1.0600, which aligns with the EMA levels and a previous support-turned-resistance zone.
Support:
The current price seems to be hovering just above a support level at 1.0450, which aligns with the recent lows.
A breakdown below this could lead to a retest of the next support at 1.0400 or lower.
3. Indicators
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
Currently at 33.88, indicating the pair is near the oversold zone. While this suggests bearish pressure, it could also hint at a potential reversal if buyers step in.
MACD:
The MACD line is below the signal line, indicating bearish momentum.
However, the histogram shows a slight reduction in selling pressure, suggesting that bearish momentum could be weakening.
4. Observations from Chart Patterns and Signals
Multiple red sell signals indicate sustained bearish sentiment.
The blue buy signal near recent support (around 1.0450) suggests potential for a small bounce or reversal at this level.
Consolidation near the psychological level of 1.0500 might lead to a breakout or breakdown, depending on market sentiment.
5. Sentiment & Fundamentals
The news on the right-hand side (e.g., "Euro steady ahead of French no-confidence vote") suggests macroeconomic factors could heavily influence the pair.
Continued bearishness in EUR/USD could also be linked to strength in the USD or weakness in the Eurozone economy.
Lower Highs (LH)
First LH: Around 1.1275 (visible at the top of the chart), marking the peak before the downtrend started.
Second LH: Around 1.1050, where the price attempted to rally but failed, forming a lower peak.
Third LH: Around 1.0850, a smaller rebound that also failed below the previous lower high.
Fourth LH: Around 1.0650, the most recent swing high before continuing downward.
Lower Lows (LL)
First LL: Around 1.0950, the initial significant dip after the first LH.
Second LL: Around 1.0750, breaking below the first LL and continuing the downtrend.
Third LL: Around 1.0550, the next lower trough as the downtrend persisted.
Fourth LL: Around 1.0450, the current area of consolidation and the lowest point on the chart so far.
Visual Explanation
The sequence alternates between lower highs (peaks) and lower lows (troughs), forming the classic downtrend structure:
Lower High → Lower Low → Lower High → Lower Low.
Key Levels to Watch
A new lower low below 1.0450 would confirm the continuation of the downtrend.
A higher high above 1.0532 (recent swing resistance) could signal a potential trend reversal.
Summary
Bearish Bias: The pair is in a clear downtrend. A break below 1.0450 could open doors for further downside toward 1.0400 or lower.
Potential Reversal: If RSI stays near oversold levels and the pair holds the 1.0450 support zone, we might see a short-term bounce to retest 1.0532 or higher.
Actionable Levels:
Watch for a breakout above 1.0532 for bullish opportunities.
A breakdown below 1.0450 confirms bearish continuation.
THIS AINT FINANCIAL ADVICE YOU DO YOU!!
