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Fundamental Market Analysis for January 13, 2025 EURUSDData from the US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) released on Friday reported that non-farm payroll employment (NFP) rose by 256k in December, exceeding market expectations of 160k and beating the revised November figure of 212k (previously reported at 227k). The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in December from 4.2% in November. Annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in average hourly earnings, fell slightly to 3.9% from 4%. US labour market data for December is likely to reinforce the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) stance on keeping interest rates unchanged in January, which will support the dollar against other currencies. Markets expect the Fed to keep the benchmark overnight interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% at its 28-29 January meeting. In addition, traders expect four interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB), which are expected to occur at each meeting through the summer. ECB policymakers seem to be comfortable with these expectations as inflationary pressures in the Eurozone remain largely under control. The head of the ECB and the Bank of France said that interest rates will continue to move towards a neutral rate ‘without slowing down by the summer’ if upcoming data confirm that ‘the pullback in price pressures does not remain in place’. Trade recommendation: Trading mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EUR/USD Analysis: A Deep Dive into Key Triggers🧵 EUR/USD has been in a prolonged downtrend, recently gaining even more bearish momentum due to the strength of the DXY. I’m Skeptic , and in today’s analysis, we’ll break down potential long and short triggers for this pair. Let’s explore opportunities across multiple timeframes. 📉 Daily Timeframe: Identifying Key Levels On the daily chart, the primary trend remains bearish within a descending channel. Key Support Zone: 1.01270 to 1.00423 This zone aligns with the midline of the channel, Fibonacci retracements, and horizontal support levels. If you’re holding short positions, this area is ideal for profit-taking. 📍 4-Hour Timeframe: Triggers and Precision Moving to the 4-hour chart, we pinpoint actionable setups: After breaking below the 1.02527 support level and consolidating, EUR/USD has reached the 1.02084 support zone. For Breakout Traders: A break and close below 1.02084 could signal further bearish momentum. I personally lean toward this approach and will monitor the break closely. For Reaction Traders: Waiting for a pullback or bounce near the daily support zone (1.01270-1.00423) might offer better long opportunities with tighter stop-loss levels. 📈 DXY Analysis: Driving Market Sentiment The DXY (US Dollar Index) continues its strong bullish trend, and its performance heavily influences EUR/USD: A sustained break above 109.449 could pave the way for further upside toward 113.219. With its current bullish momentum, this move could pressure assets like Bitcoin, which may test critical support levels at 85 or even 80-82. Key Takeaways: EUR/USD: Watch for a break below 1.02084 for short entries. React near 1.01270-1.00423 for potential long setups. DXY: A continuation above 109.449 strengthens bearish pressure on EUR/USD. Conclusion & Final Thoughts Navigating the EUR/USD market requires a blend of technical precision and patience. While short-term triggers offer immediate opportunities, always align your trades with the broader market context, such as DXY trends. 💬 What’s your take on EUR/USD? Are you a breakout or reaction trader? Share your insights in the comments! I’m Skeptic , dedicated to simplifying trading and helping you achieve mastery step by step. Let’s keep growing and learning together! 😊
Short
by SkepticWise
1
Lingrid | EURUSD bearish MOMENTUM. Selling OPPORTUNITYThe price perfectly fulfilled my last idea. It hit the target. FX:EURUSD continues to make lower lows and lower closes. It formed a long-tailed bar on the weekly timeframe, suggesting that the market may drop below the key level of 1.0000, or at least retest it. On the 4H timeframe, the market closed below the previous lower low at 1.02225. Considering that the price broke and closed below the lows from November and December, I think we might see strong bearish momentum. I expect the market to bounce off the downward trendline, which has been respected multiple times, along with the resistance zone. My goal is support zone around 1.01000 Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
Short
by Lingrid
4
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): Short to low of the wave “1” 1.02213.Colleagues, after last reaching the 1.02213 target, I believe the downward five-wave move is not over yet. Wave “5” is not yet complete, but now the price is in the correction of the lower wave “2”. This means that the price is likely to continue the downward movement and update the low of the wave “1” 1.02213. Therefore, I believe that the price will reach the 1.02213 area again. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Short
by Hellena_Trade
15
Lingrid | EURUSD bearish TREND Continues: Potential ShortThe price perfectly fulfilled my last idea. It hit the target. FX:EURUSD market continues to push to lower levels. The price formed a notable double top before dropping after testing the downward trendline. It initially tested the high zone from the previous week, then declined, breaking and closing below the previously respected support level at 1.03500. Furthermore, the price has broke through the previous day's low, suggesting that bears are in control. I expect the price to at least retest the previous lower low levels and potentially make news lows. My goal is support zone around 1.02620 Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
Short
by Lingrid
5
EURUSD: a higher for longerThe major data posted during the previous week were related to the US jobs data. The surprisingly better than expected Non-farm Payrolls figures of 256K hit the market on Friday. The expectations were standing at the side of 200K. At the same time, the unemployment rate dropped to the level of 4,1%, from 4,2% posted during previous months. Average hourly earnings were increased by 0,3% in December, bringing the figure to 3,9% for the year. Another surprise came from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for January. The Michigan 5 years inflation expectations were increased to the level of 3,3%, from 3% posted during the previous months. From other macro data posted during the week, the ISM Services PMI in December reached 54,1 a bit higher from 53,3 market consensus. Inflation rate preliminary for December in Germany reached 2,6% on a yearly basis, which was higher from market consensus of 2,4%. Inflation rate on a monthly basis was standing at 0,4%. Inflation rate in the Euro Zone flash for December was standing at 2,4% y/y and was in line with market expectations. The unemployment rate in the EuroZone in November was 6,3%, unchanged from the previous month. Factory orders in Germany continue to be under pressure with -5,4% m/m change in November. This was strongly below forecasted 0,3%. Retail sales in Germany in November were also surprising with a drop of -0,6% m/m while the market again expected to see a positive figure of 0,5%. The balance of trade in Germany in November managed to stay in a positive territory with 19,7B euros, which was much higher from market consensus of 14,8B euros. During the previous week, the strong strengthening of the US Dollar continued. The eurusd took the course further toward the downside, reaching the lowest weekly level at 1,0220. The historical support line at 1,04 has been easily breached. This represents a continuation of the move toward the parity, after the last defense line at 1,04 has been clearly broken. The euro Zone continues to struggle to sustain its modest economic growth, while the latest jobs data in the US showed clear resilience of the US economy toward the inflation and high interest rates. The RSI continues to move around the oversold market side for the last three weeks. There is no clear indication on the potential for a short reversal. The MA50 continues to diverge from MA200, without an indication that the convergence might start anytime soon. The markets set the clear course for eurusd in September last year. Now the main question is with which speed the markets will head toward parity? Current charts are pointing to some probability that the level 1,02 could be tested in the week ahead. However, it should be taken into account that December Inflation data for the US will be posted in the week ahead, which might bring back some volatility. The move toward the upside is possible, but it should be taken with a precaution. After posted jobs data, the market is currently in the sentiment that the interest rates will be “higher for longer”, in which sense, a demand for US Dollar might continue. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: Full year GDP growth in Germany, Inflation rate in Germany, final for December, USD: Producers Price Index for December, Inflation rate in December, Retail Sales in December, Building Permits preliminary for December, Housing starts in December
by XBTFX
Euro Back to Parity?The possibility of EUR/USD reaching parity remains a realistic scenario under current macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions. 1. Diverging Monetary Policies In light of Tump 2.0 and the potential impact of increasing inflation due to the introduction of tariffs, the Federal Reserve is seen to be backing down on its path to keep cutting rates. On the current plans for only 2 rate cuts in 2025, elevated U.S. interest rates could continue to bolster the U.S. dollar, as higher yields attract foreign investment, increasing demand for USD. On the other hand, the European Central Bank (ECB) faces mounting pressure to ease its policy stance. The Eurozone economy has shown signs of stagnation, with Germany, the region's economic engine, teetering on the brink of recession. A dovish ECB weakens the euro relative to the dollar, contributing to downside pressure on EUR/USD. 2. Weakening Eurozone Economy The U.S. economy has remained relatively resilient, supported by robust labor markets and consumer spending. Conversely, the Eurozone has struggled with sluggish growth and energy dependence, leaving it more vulnerable to external shocks. 3. Geopolitical Risks The ongoing effects of the Russia-Ukraine war continue to strain Europe’s energy sector. While the region has reduced its reliance on Russian natural gas, high energy prices remain a structural challenge, eroding business competitiveness and consumer purchasing power. Heightened geopolitical tensions globally have fueled risk-off sentiment, benefiting the safe-haven U.S. dollar. 4. Technical Analysis EUR/USD has been trading in a downward trend since October 2024, after reaching a peak of 1.12. Should the pair break below the round number level of 1.02 (and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the longer term) the path to parity becomes increasingly plausible, with 1.00 serving as the next major psychological support. The 50-day moving average remains below the 200-day moving average, forming a " death cross " pattern, which indicates bearish momentum. Additionally, the TSRI MACD crossover indicates continued selling pressure but room for further downside. Conclusion The conditions are aligned for EUR/USD to reach parity. While short-term volatility and market sentiment may delay this move, the structural drivers of dollar strength and euro weakness remain firmly in place.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
Could the Fiber reverse from here?The price is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance. Pivot: 1.0185 1st Support: 1.0092 1st Resistance: 1.0340 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
EURUSD D1 I Potential Bullish Rise?Based on the daily chart analysis, the price is approaching our buy entry level at 1.0123, which is a significant overlap support that aligns close to the 127.2% Fibonacci extension. This level presents a potential reversal point for the current downtrend. Our take profit is set at 1.03318, near a strong pullback resistance level. The stop loss is placed at 1.0067, below the 161.8% Fibonacci extension, to provide a buffer against potential market volatility while maintaining a favorable risk-reward ratio. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
EURUSD InsightHello, subscribers! It’s great to have you all here. Please feel free to share your personal opinions in the comments. Don’t forget to hit the like button and subscribe! Key Points - U.S. December Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 256,000, significantly exceeding market expectations of 155,000, while the unemployment rate edged down slightly to 4.1% from the previous month's 4.2%. - The stronger-than-expected performance of the U.S. labor market has solidified expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates. A rate pause in January is now widely anticipated, with similar expectations for March and May. - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose to nearly 4.8%, while the 30-year yield broke above 5.0% at one point. - Reports suggest that the Bank of Japan may revise inflation forecasts upward during its January meeting due to rising rice prices and exchange rate volatility. This has fueled speculation that the Bank of Japan might consider a rate hike, strengthening the yen. - If the UK CPI comes in higher than expected this week, it could push gilt yields higher and intensify concerns over the UK’s worsening fiscal outlook. Key Economic Events This Week + January 14: U.S. December Producer Price Index (PPI) + January 15: UK December Consumer Price Index (CPI), U.S. December CPI + January 16: UK November GDP, Germany December CPI, U.S. December Retail Sales + January 17: UK December CPI EUR/USD Chart Analysis The pair faced resistance at the anticipated high of 1.04500, resulting in a significant drop back toward the 1.02000 level. While there has been a slight temporary rebound, the pair is expected to resume its downward trajectory, potentially extending losses to the 1.01000 level. Should the 1.01000 support break, we may see the pair decline further toward parity (1.00000).
Short
by shawntime_academy
EUR/USD (EU) Analysis (Daily Timeframe)Recently, we’ve observed a distribution phase in EUR/USD, followed by a markdown , confirming the overall bearish trend visible on both the daily and weekly timeframes. Key Observations: Bearish Structure: On the daily timeframe, price is consistently creating supply zones and showing strong reactions to them. The market structure confirms the downtrend with the formation of lower lows and breaks to the downside. EMA Interaction: The price is currently surfing downward along the EMAs , which are acting as dynamic resistance and reinforcing the bearish momentum. Scenarios to Watch: Continuation: Price could continue its markdown, heading toward the short-term target and potentially testing the psychological level of 1.0000. Re-distribution: There’s also a possibility of a move upward, creating a re-distribution phase to accumulate enough liquidity for a stronger push below 1.0000 . Fundamental Insights: Strength of the US Economy: The US dollar remains strong due to: Higher interest rates maintained by the Federal Reserve to combat inflation, which increases the demand for USD-denominated assets. Strong labor market data , with low unemployment and rising wages supporting consumer spending. Positive GDP growth , reflecting resilience in the US economy despite global economic challenges. Weakness in the Eurozone: European economies are facing multiple headwinds, including: Energy concerns driven by geopolitical tensions, leading to higher costs for businesses and consumers. Slow economic growth as inflation continues to weigh on consumer spending. Divergence in monetary policy , with the European Central Bank (ECB) appearing more cautious about aggressive rate hikes compared to the Fed. The combination of these factors makes the USD fundamentally stronger, while the EUR struggles under the weight of economic and geopolitical challenges. My Perspective: Given the strong bearish structure, EMA surfing, and fundamental backdrop, I expect further downside momentum. However, the possibility of a re-distribution phase cannot be ruled out, especially if liquidity is needed to push below the 1.0000 level. Staying cautious and reactive to price action around key levels will be crucial.
Short
by TraderOuss_LumaNex
EUR/USD 30 Min Breakout - Symmetrical Triangle PatternI’m analyzing a potential breakout in EUR/USD on the 30-minute chart. The pair is forming a symmetrical triangle pattern, suggesting a phase of consolidation after the sharp downward move earlier. Based on the trendlines: The red horizontal line indicates resistance near 1.0250. The green ascending line represents rising support, forming the lower bound of the triangle. My Bias: I expect an upside breakout based on the momentum building along the ascending trendline. The price has tested resistance multiple times, increasing the likelihood of a breakout. Plan: Entry: I plan to go long if the price breaks and closes above 1.0250, ideally with increased volume to confirm the move. Stop Loss: Below the ascending support line near 1.0230 to minimize downside risk. Target: Projecting the height of the triangle, my first target would be 1.0275, with a stretch goal around 1.0300 if momentum continues. Keep in mind, breakouts can sometimes fail, so patience and proper risk management are key. What do you think of this setup? Let me know your thoughts!
Long
by freedomtrading771