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Euro Under Mild Pressure Amid Policy Uncertainty and Weaker USD📌 EUR/USD Outlook: Euro Under Mild Pressure Amid Policy Uncertainty and Weaker US Dollar 📉 🌍 Fundamental Overview EUR/USD is trading cautiously around 1.1400, as market sentiment remains sensitive to developments in the US-China trade situation and broader monetary policy expectations. Despite recent USD weakness — where the greenback lost ground against all G10 currencies this April — the Euro is facing renewed selling pressure amid rising speculation about further ECB rate cuts. ECB policymakers, including Olli Rehn and François Villeroy de Galhau, highlighted the increasing risks of missing the 2% inflation target, reinforcing the need for more monetary easing if necessary. Meanwhile, mixed signals between Trump and Beijing over trade negotiations have kept uncertainty high, putting both USD and risk sentiment in flux. 📈 Key Economic Events to Watch US Data: JOLTS Job Openings Q1 GDP Preliminary ISM Manufacturing PMI ADP Employment Change Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Core PCE Price Index (March) Eurozone Data: Q1 GDP Preliminary April HICP Inflation Recent weaker-than-expected Spanish GDP (0.6% vs. forecast 0.7%) also adds pressure on the broader Eurozone outlook. 📊 Technical Outlook – EUR/USD Immediate Resistance: 1.1450 – 1.1475 Immediate Support: 1.1375 – 1.1340 The pair is now hovering near the 1.1400 psychological level, with slight bearish momentum: A break below 1.1375 could open the path towards 1.1340. On the upside, holding above 1.1400 and reclaiming 1.1450 would be needed to revive bullish momentum. The Dollar Index (DXY) remains trapped around 99.20, hinting at limited immediate USD strength but vulnerable to macro catalysts. 🧠 Trading Strategy Prefer short-term sell setups if EUR/USD fails to hold 1.1400 and breaks below 1.1375. Bullish setups are only valid if Price closes firmly above 1.1450, aiming towards 1.1475 resistance. ⚡ Traders should stay cautious ahead of major data this week, especially US NFP and Core PCE, which could redefine short-term Dollar strength. 💬 Are you watching for a deeper pullback or waiting for a bounce above 1.1450? Let’s discuss! 👇👇👇
Short
by MMFlowTrading
3
The Day AheadTuesday April 29 Data: US April Conference Board consumer confidence index, Dallas Fed services activity, March JOLTS report, advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, February FHFA house price index, Germany May GfK consumer confidence, Italy April consumer confidence index, manufacturing confidence, economic sentiment, March hourly wages, February industrial sales, Eurozone March M3, April economic, industrial, services confidence, Sweden Q1 GDP indicator Central banks: ECB’s March consumer expectations survey, Holzmann and Cipollone speak, BoE’s Ramsden speaks Earnings: Visa, Coca-Cola, Novartis, China Construction Bank, AstraZeneca, HSBC, Booking, S&P Global, Pfizer, Honeywell, Spotify, American Tower, Altria, Starbucks, Mondelez, Sherwin-Williams, UPS, BBVA, BP, Atlas Copco, Ecolab, Regeneron, PayPal, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Wal-Mart de Mexico, Universal Music Group, Hilton, Fair Isaac, adidas, GM, Corning, Kraft Heinz, CoStar, Ares This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
Good recovery for USD but that is not enough🔔🔔🔔 EUR/USD news: ➡️ Ongoing rhetoric about easing trade tensions between the United States and China has had a positive impact on stock markets, helping to restore some calm. However, investors remain cautious about making significant bets on the U.S. dollar. ➡️ Meanwhile, the euro is trading slightly below the 1.1400 level early Wednesday, staying within a narrow range as traders have largely refrained from making bold moves in recent days. Personal opinion: ➡️ EUR/USD is correcting lower after showing overbought conditions at a three-year high of 1.1575. However, a healthy correction for the USD has emerged but the US dollar cannot be considered back in the forefront. Let's take a look at the upcoming US trade deal. ➡️ Analysis based on important resistance - support and Fibonacci levels combined with EMA to come up with a suitable strategy Personal Plan: 🔆Price Zone Setup: 👉Buy EUR/USD 1.1360 - 1.1350 ❌SL: 1.1310 | ✅TP: 1.1410 - 1.1470 FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Long
by FM-ForexMastermind
1
EUR/USD Bullish Breakout Trade Setup – Targeting 1.18089Entry Point: 1.13860 Stop Loss Zone: 1.13642 to 1.12578 Resistance Point: 1.14320 Target (TP) Point: 1.18089 🔍 Observations Support Zone: Marked in purple near the entry and stop-loss area, suggesting a strong demand zone. Resistance Zone: Around 1.14320, indicating a potential breakout level. Trend: Short-term uptrend after a consolidation range. Risk/Reward Ratio: Quite favorable, targeting a move of approximately 470+ pips (4.20% gain) from entry to target. 📊 Technical Indicators Moving Averages: Red (likely 20 EMA): Price recently crossed above, showing bullish momentum. Blue (likely 50 or 200 EMA): Serving as dynamic support. Price Action: Formation suggests a potential breakout from resistance toward the 1.18 target. 🧠 Conclusion This is a long (buy) setup expecting a bullish breakout: Buy entry above the support zone. Stop-loss placed below major support (1.12578). Target set significantly higher, aligning with prior structure or resistance at 1.18089
Long
by EA_GOLD_MAN_COPY_TRADE
4
EURUSD: Bullish Price Action Confirmed?! 🇪🇺🇺🇸 Here is my latest price action analysis for EURUSD. The price completed a recent correction movement with quite an extended consolidation within a horizontal range and a symmetrical triangle. The violation of 2 intraday resistances with a bullish imbalance indicate a highly probable finalization of the accumulation. Probabilities are high that the pair is returning to a bullish trend now. Goal - 1.1478 ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by VasilyTrader
1
EURUSDEUR/USD Monetary Policy Decisions from the Central Banks (April 2025) The ECB lowered its three key interest rates by 25 basis points. Deposit Facility Rate: Reduced to 2.25% Main Refinancing Operations Rate: Reduced to 2.40% Marginal Lending Facility Rate: Reduced to 2.65% These changes take effect from April 23, 2025. Rationale: The ECB cited a well-progressing disinflation process, with both headline and core inflation declining and expected to settle near the 2% medium-term target. Wage growth is moderating, and the euro area economy has shown resilience. However, the outlook for growth has deteriorated due to rising global trade tensions, which are increasing uncertainty and tightening financial conditions. The ECB emphasized a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach and is not pre-committing to a specific rate path. Economic Context: Growth outlook is weakening, with ECB President Christine Lagarde warning that US tariffs could halve Eurozone growth this year from an already modest 0.9% forecast. Inflation risks remain, especially from potential retaliatory tariffs and increased government spending. U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.5%, continuing the pause in its rate-cut cycle that began in January 2025. Outlook: The Fed anticipates two rate cuts (totaling 50 basis points) later in 2025, but is cautious due to persistent inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty, particularly from elevated tariffs and trade policy shifts. Policymakers see inflation risks as tilted to the upside but have downgraded growth forecasts for 2025 (now 1.7%, down from 2.1%). The Fed remains data-dependent, with future decisions hinging on inflation and labor market developments. Implications for EUR/USD The ECB’s rate cut narrows the interest rate differential with the Fed, which can support EUR/USD upside if the Fed remains on hold or cuts rates later than the ECB. Both central banks are emphasizing a data-dependent approach, responding to evolving inflation and growth dynamics Trade tensions and tariff policies are a major source of uncertainty for both economies and could influence further monetary policy actions. Summary Table ECB Cut by 25 bps (Apr 2025) Deposit: 2.25% Disinflation on track, growth risks from trade tensions, data-dependent Fed Held steady (Mar 2025) Fed Funds: 4.25%–4.5% Inflation risks, slower growth, 2 cuts expected in 2025, data-dependent In summary: The ECB has just cut rates to support growth as inflation moderates, while the Fed is holding steady but signaling possible cuts later in 2025. Both central banks are highly data-dependent, with trade tensions and inflation risks shaping their outlooks. This evolving policy divergence is a key driver for EUR/USD in the months ahead
Short
by Shavyfxhub
Is EURUSD getting ready for another 600 pips bull run?🏆 EURUSD Market Update 📊 Technical Outlook 🔸Short-term: mixed/range 🔸Mid-term: BULLS 2000 🔸Status: accumulation in range 🔸previously x2 waves +600 pips 🔸clearly strong uptrend in progress 🔸Price Target Bears: range 🔸Price Target BULLS: 2000 🔸strategy: accumulate in range 🔸TP1 +200 TP2 +400 pips 🔸SL 60 pips / below accum range 📈 EUR/USD Bullish Drivers 🏦 ECB staying cautious on rate cuts while Fed signals easing 📉 Weak U.S. job and manufacturing data pressuring the dollar 🌍 U.S. trade policy uncertainty pushing investors toward euro 📊 Technicals show strong support, RSI confirms bullish momentum 🔮 Outlook ⏳ Short-term: Targeting 1.1500 if U.S. data stays soft 📆 Medium-term: 1.20 possible on policy divergence and EU fiscal boost
Long
by ProjectSyndicate
29
Euro Slips as ECB Rate Cut Bets GrowThe EUR/USD dipped to around 1.1415 in early Asian trading Tuesday as the Euro weakened on rising expectations of an ECB rate cut in June. Reuters cited growing confidence among policymakers, with Olli Rehn suggesting rates could fall below neutral. Investors are also watching US-China trade developments ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls. President Trump claimed progress, but Beijing denied active talks. Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed recent contact but said China must act. Trade tensions continue to pressure the dollar, potentially supporting the Euro. Key resistance is at 1.1460, followed by 1.1580 and 1.1680. Support lies at 1.1260, then 1.1200 and 1.1150.
by ChartMage
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 29, 2025 EURUSDEUR/USD is down to 1.14150 in the early Asian session on Tuesday. The euro (EUR) is weakening against the US dollar (USD) amid rising bets for further rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) in June. Investors expect further US trade policy developments ahead of the release of the much-anticipated US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday. US President Donald Trump said progress is being made and he has spoken to Chinese President Xi Jinping, although Beijing denies that trade talks are underway. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he spoke with Chinese authorities last week but did not mention tariffs. On Monday, Bessent said the U.S. government is in contact with China, but it is up to Beijing to take the first step to de-escalate the tariff fight with the U.S. over the trade imbalance between the two countries. Investors will be keeping a close eye on the US-China relationship. Trump's chaotic trade policies have undermined faith in US assets and the common currency has become an alternative destination for investors' cash. Any signs of an escalating trade war between the US and China could have a negative impact on the US dollar and serve as a tailwind for EUR/USD. On Saturday, Reuters reported that ECB policymakers are increasingly confident of cutting interest rates in June as inflation continues to fall. On Monday, ECB chief Olli Rehn said the central bank may cut interest rates below the neutral level that keeps the economy in balance. Trading recommendation: SELL 1.13800, SL 1.14000 , TP 1.13000
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EURUSD Short 4/29/2025EUR/USD Short – Weekly Supply Rejection + Bearish Structure Developing Looking to short EUR/USD based on a clean multi-timeframe confluence of supply rejection, bearish price action, and lack of immediate bullish catalysts. Weekly Chart: Last week printed a bearish hammer right off a major weekly supply zone — signaling higher timeframe selling pressure coming into play. 4H Chart: We've got developing structure that could complete into a valid head and shoulders pattern. Last two 4H candles printed a bearish engulfing followed by a bearish hammer, both rejecting supply strongly. Current 4H candle (still forming) is holding bearish intent, keeping momentum tilted to the downside. 1H Chart: 1-hour candles are following suit — we’re about to close a doji, showing hesitation from buyers and potential follow-through lower. Trade Thesis: Taking the short now with anticipation that the 4H head and shoulders confirms and breaks lower. First milestone is clearing the neckline, then continuation down toward the weekly structural target at 1.2000. Fundamental Context: No major eurozone news releases today. German Prelim CPI hits tomorrow, but until then, EUR is exposed to drifting lower without fresh catalysts. Risk-Reward Profile: Initial Target: Break below the neckline Main Target: Weekly level around 1.2000 R:R: Targeting 1:4 Stop: Placed above the right shoulder structure on the 4H This setup combines clean technical exhaustion at supply with room for a strong trend leg if momentum accelerates.
Short
by Big6Financial
Optimal Position Size May Reduce RisksOptimal Position Size May Reduce Risks Position sizing in trading is a crucial yet often overlooked aspect of risk management. It's the art of determining how much capital to allocate to each trade, balancing the potential for effective trading with the need to protect your investment. This article delves into the principles of position sizing, offering insights into how traders may optimise their strategies to potentially reduce risk and maximise their trading opportunities. What Is Position Sizing in Trading? Position sizing, or trade sizing, is a fundamental concept in trading that determines how much capital is allocated to a specific trade. This process isn't about maximising profits; it's crucial for managing risk. The right position size may minimise the potential loss on each trade relative to the overall capital, potentially ensuring that a single loss doesn't significantly impact the trader's account. In essence, determining trade sizes is a balancing act. It involves calculating the appropriate amount to invest based on various factors like account size, risk tolerance, and market conditions. This calculated approach contrasts sharply with random or emotional decision-making, where the size of a trade might be based on a hunch or a desire to recoup losses. The Role of Leverage in Position Sizing Leverage in trading is comparable to a double-edged sword. It allows traders to control larger positions with a smaller amount of capital, effectively amplifying both potential returns and risks. When a trader employs leverage, they borrow capital, increasing their trading power. However, when combined with strict position sizing and stop-loss placement, leverage serves a different role. It doesn't necessarily increase the risk but rather reallocates capital more efficiently. For example, if someone uses leverage to open a position, they're required to commit only a fraction of the trade's total value, known as the margin. If they’re risking 1% of their account balance on a single trade and never move their stop loss, the trader’s loss is limited to this 1%, regardless of how much leverage they use. The only difference is that lower leverage uses more capital for margin and vice versa. Key Factors Influencing Position Size When it comes to determining the right position size in trading, two key factors come into play, both crucial for tailoring risk management to individual needs: - Risk Tolerance: Every person has a unique comfort level with risk. Some might be inclined to use a larger proportion of their account balance on a given trade, accepting higher potential losses for greater potential gains, while others may prefer a more conservative stance, prioritising capital preservation. - Market Volatility: The level of volatility in the market significantly influences position sizing. In highly volatile markets, where price swings are more pronounced, reducing position size can be a prudent strategy to potentially limit exposure to sudden and severe market movements. Calculating Optimal Position Sizes Understanding how to calculate position sizes is a cornerstone of effective trading. The process involves several steps that balance risk management with the potential for returns. Here’s a detailed breakdown: - Determining Risk Tolerance Per Trade: First, decide what percentage of your trading capital you are willing to risk on a single trade. A common guideline is the 1% rule, meaning if you have $10,000, you will lose no more than $100 per trade. - Setting a Stop-Loss Order: This is a predetermined point where a losing trade will be closed to prevent further losses. The stop-loss is set based on market analysis and does not exceed the risk tolerance. - Calculating the Risk per Share/Unit: Subtract the stop-loss level from the entry price. For example, $50 (entry price) in the stock market - $45 (stop-loss) equals a $5 risk per share. - Determining Position Size: Divide the dollar amount you’re willing to risk by the risk per share/unit. Using the $100 risk on a $10,000 account, divide this by the $5 risk per share: $100/$5 = 20 shares. Thus, you should buy 20 shares to stay within your 1% limit. As a result, if your stop-loss is triggered, you’d only lose 1% of your total capital. Position Sizing Strategies In trading, there are two commonly used position-sizing strategies: - Fixed Percentage Model: This strategy involves risking a fixed percentage of the total trading capital on each trade. For example, one might consistently risk 2% of their capital per trade. This method automatically adjusts the dollar amount at risk based on the current account size, potentially ensuring that losses are proportionate to the account's value. - Dollar Amount Risk Model: Here, traders potentially lose a set dollar amount on every trade, regardless of the account size. For instance, a trader may decide to risk $500 on each trade. This model is simpler and easier to manage, especially for traders with less experience, but doesn't adjust for changes in the total account value, which could be a drawback as the account grows or shrinks. The Impact of Position Sizing on Trading Performance Optimal position sizing is risk-reducing and plays a critical role in a trader's overall performance. By allocating the right amount of capital to each trade, they potentially can manage potential losses more effectively, preserving their trading capital over the long term. This approach is believed to help traders be sure that a series of losing trades does not significantly deplete the account, allowing them to remain in the market. Moreover, optimal position sizing may contribute to emotional stability. Traders are less likely to experience extreme stress or make impulsive decisions when they know their risk is controlled and losses are within acceptable limits. This psychological benefit cannot be overstated, as a calm and focused mindset is essential for making rational trading decisions. The Bottom Line In essence, mastering position sizing is key to balancing potential gains with prudent risk management. Remember, optimal position sizing is about protecting your capital while maximising opportunities and is a valuable tool in long-term, sustainable trading. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
5
EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W18 D29 Y25 EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W18 D29 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Weekly order block rejection ✅Daily order block rejection ✅Intraday 15' order block ✅Tokyo ranges to be filled 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
EUR/USD 15m Analysis – Market Profile & Demand Zone Play Price is retracing into a key demand zone near 1.1350–1.1360 after a sharp move up. This area also coincides with a prior high-volume node (POC) on the market profile, suggesting significant past accumulation and potential for a reaction. Market Profile Insights: • A clear value area developed between ~1.1350 and ~1.1385, showing strong acceptance. • The recent move up created a low-volume node (LVN) just above the current price – indicating inefficient price action that may be revisited quickly if demand returns. • Current price is re-entering the prior value area, hinting at a potential test of the lower boundary (~1.1350), which also aligns with the ascending trendline support. • If this zone holds, there’s a clean upside imbalance toward 1.1518 – where the previous distribution ends and new liquidity likely sits. Trade Plan: • Long Bias from demand zone with bullish confirmation. • Target: 1.1518 • Invalidation: Break and hold below 1.1340 demand
Long
by Profx001
Potential bearish drop?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is reacting off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 1.1425 1st Support: 1.1146 1st Resistance: 1.1569 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Short
by ICmarkets