EURUSD trade ideas
EUR/USD...EURUSD 30M CHART PATTERN..I'm planning a *EUR/USD sell trade* with the following details:
- *Entry Price*: 1.13300
- *Take Profit (TP) Levels*:
- *TP1: 1.12300 (-100 pips*)
- *TP2: 1.11400 (-190 pips*)
### Key Considerations:
1. *Risk Management*:
- Ensure you have a *stop-loss (SL)* in place (e.g., 1.13800 or higher, depending on your risk tolerance).
- A common approach is a *1:2 or 1:3 risk-reward ratio*.
2. *Market Conditions*:
- Check if the trend is *bearish* (e.g., lower highs/lows, RSI below 50, moving averages sloping downward).
- Key resistance levels above 1.13300 could strengthen the sell case.
3. *Trade Execution*:
- Monitor price action around *1.13300* for confirmation (e.g., rejection candles, momentum).
- Consider partial closing at *TP1* and moving SL to breakeven.
Would you like help analyzing the trade setup further (e.g., technical indicators, support/resistance levels)?
EURUSD BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISEURUSD has followed our expectations beautifully, bouncing strongly off a key support zone near 1.1270. This zone was previously a tough resistance which the pair broke through, and it’s now acting as a strong demand area. The latest bullish engulfing candle from this region signals solid buying pressure, confirming that bulls are stepping in to protect this structure. I’m now targeting a move toward the 1.17 level, which aligns with the previous high and the next major resistance on the chart.
From a macro perspective, the euro is showing resilience amid recent ECB policy comments, where officials have adopted a cautious but steady tone. Inflation remains persistent enough to delay aggressive rate cuts, keeping EUR demand intact. Meanwhile, the dollar is seeing renewed selling interest as market expectations shift toward a Fed pause, especially after softer US economic indicators including retail sales and jobless claims. This divergence is likely to support further upside in EURUSD.
Technically, this is a classic textbook retest of broken resistance turned support, backed by momentum indicators such as RSI now bouncing from mid-range and MACD showing signs of a potential bullish crossover. Volume has spiked at the support zone, confirming institutional participation. As long as EURUSD holds above 1.1270, I remain bullish and see this move extending toward 1.17 over the coming sessions.
This setup presents a strong risk-to-reward opportunity with momentum aligning with structure. The breakout and retest scenario is fully intact, and fundamentals are now favoring a continuation to the upside. Traders and swing holders should keep this on their radar as EURUSD looks ready to climb further.
EUR-USD Potential Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-USD is trading in an
Uptrend and the pair made
A breakout of the key horizontal
Level of 1.1300 which is confirmed
So now the price is consolidating
Above the new support
And after a potential retest
Of the support level we are
Likely to see a further
Bullish move up
Buy!
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#AN001: Geopolitical Situations and Forex Impact
Hi, I'm Forex Trader Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about how the recent geopolitical turmoil is impacting global currency markets. In this week of May 2025, significant events are shaking up the global economic and political balance, with direct repercussions on Forex.
Geopolitical Overview: Rising Tensions
India-Pakistan Crisis
Following the terrorist attack in Pahalgam on April 22, which left 25 Indian tourists dead, relations between India and Pakistan deteriorated rapidly. Artillery exchanges along the Line of Control, diplomatic expulsions and the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty characterized the following weeks. Although a ceasefire was reached on May 10, the situation remains volatile, with significant impacts on air traffic and regional trade routes.
Wikipedia
Iran-US Nuclear Stalemate
The nuclear talks between Iran and the United States are at a standstill. Tehran refuses to stop enriching uranium and negotiate on its missile program, while Washington insists on these conditions. Iran, under economic pressure from sanctions, may seek support from China and Russia, although these allies face their own geopolitical challenges.
Reuters
"Golden Dome" and US Trade Policies
President Donald Trump has announced the "Golden Dome" project, a $175 billion missile defense system inspired by Israel's Iron Dome. Meanwhile, protectionist US trade policies are generating uncertainty in global markets, with the European Union proposing a "Buy European" strategy to strengthen the bloc's economic autonomy.
The Times of India
Financial Times
FX Impacts: Currency Market Analysis
EUR/USD: Downside Pressure
The euro is under pressure due to trade tensions with the US and domestic economic uncertainties. Proposals to reform public procurement and European defense initiatives could affect investor sentiment. The ECB has highlighted risks to financial stability arising from these tensions.
USD/JPY: Yen Safe Haven
Amid global uncertainty, the Japanese yen is strengthening as a safe haven currency. Tensions in the Middle East and US policies are pushing investors towards safer assets, supporting the yen’s appreciation.
GBP/USD: Towards a New UK-EU Relationship
The UK, under Prime Minister Keir Starmer, is seeking to re-establish closer relations with the European Union, without rejoining the bloc. This pragmatic strategy could reduce economic uncertainty and positively impact sterling in the medium term.
USD/CAD: Influence of Oil Prices
The Canadian dollar is affected by fluctuations in oil prices, influenced by uncertainties in the Iran-US negotiations and tensions in Ukraine. Canada's dependence on energy exports makes the CAD sensitive to these developments.
No change for EURUSDEURUSD is holding above the first target and remains within the bullish trend.
The next key resistance levels are at 1,1358 and 1,1456.
The goal is a breakout above the high at 1,1573 and a continuation of the bullish move.
A temporary pause or slight correction is possible, but the main scenario remains unchanged.
Follow the trend and look for entries with good risk-to-reward ratios.
Success is a matter of discipline and consistency!
EURUSD - Potential Buy (Day Trading)Hi Traders,
How about we BUY CMCMARKETS:EURUSD !
Price Action Analysis:
4hr Chart: Price has been in a corrective phase since April 2025, which may have provided enough of a discount to attract buyers.
1hr Chart: I’m monitoring how price reacts following the buying pressure that emerged on May 13th, 2025.
Lower timeframe: Watching for the right timing to enter the trade.
Good Luck!
STUDY, STUDY, STUDY . Lorenzo Tarati :)
EURUSD H4 | Bullish Reversal Based on the H4 chart analysis, the price is approaching our buy entry level at 1.2265, a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit is set at 1.1426, an overlap resistance.
The stop loss is placed at 1.1193, a pullback resistance.
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EURUSD Trade Plan – Two Possible ScenariosPrice is currently consolidating below resistance at 1.1345.
✅ Scenario 1: Breakout Continuation
If price breaks and closes above 1.1345 with strong bullish momentum, I will look for a breakout buy with targets toward 1.1375–1.1400.
✅ Scenario 2: Deeper Pullback to Buy
If price rejects 1.1345 and pulls back toward the 1.1300–1.1310 support zone (confluence with EMA zone), I’ll wait for bullish confirmation to enter long.
❌ If price breaks below 1.1300, I’ll wait and reassess the structure.
Trend remains bullish. Focus only on long setups for now.
EURUSD Bearish Setup📌 Market Structure & Setup Summary
Major Supply Zone Rejection (Red Zone at Top):
Price tapped into higher timeframe supply zone at 1.13755 (red box).
This was a buy-side liquidity grab just above the previous high → textbook distribution zone.
Now price is respecting that zone and rejecting it with bearish momentum.
Bearish Rising Channel Broken:
Red trendlines show a rising wedge → often leads to a bearish breakout.
Price is currently breaking out of that wedge to the downside.
Premium Pricing Confirmed:
Price was pushed into the premium zone (above equilibrium), inducing buy orders → now being reversed.
🔄 Trade Plan (Short Bias)
✅ Entry: Activated inside the red supply zone after confirming wick rejections and structure shift.
🛑 Stop Loss: Above the red supply zone (above 1.13755).
🎯 Targets:
TP1 → 1.12545: Structure support and breaker block.
TP2 → 1.11663: Previous demand zone and trendline intersection.
TP3 (Optional) → 1.11002 – 1.10610: External liquidity + trendline + FVG zone.
📉 RR Ratio: Estimated 1:4 to 1:5+ if TP2/TP3 hits.
⚠️ Key Confluences
🔹 Bearish break of rising wedge = structural shift.
🔹 Rejection wick inside red supply + BOS.
🔹 TP zones aligned with previous OB, breaker blocks, and liquidity pools.
🔹 News/volatility likely during the double blue vertical lines, so expect reaction spikes.
🚫 Invalidation Criteria
If price closes above 1.13755, the idea is invalid.
Watch for manipulation or false breakouts during high-impact news.
🔮 Market Forecast
If current rejection holds, expecting price to seek sell-side liquidity from 1.12545, then 1.11663, and possibly lower. This is a classic distribution > BOS > retrace > expansion sequence.
Bearish reversal?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.1424
1st Support: 1.1263
1st Resistance: 1.1557
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Bullish bounce off overlap support?EUR/USD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1267
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.1140
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 71% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.1425
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 71% Fibonacci retracement.
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EURUSD - Buy Trade - 21/05/2025Fundamentals: The euro has strengthened against the U.S. dollar, reaching the 1.1360 price zone during European trading hours amid U.S. fiscal concerns.
Technical: The pair remains in a bullish trend across all timeframes, with key resistance at 1.1360 and support at 1.1300.
EURUSD Shows Signs of Reversal as Momentum Shifts HigherThe EURUSD is beginning to show signs of a reversal as momentum shifts and moves above its 10-day exponential moving average. The EURUSD has recently experienced a significant move since early February, rising to a high of 1.147, which resulted in it becoming overbought, touching its upper Bollinger band, and pushing the RSI above 70. Now, after a brief pullback, the EURUSD appears poised to make another push higher.
The EURUSD has now moved above its 10-day exponential moving average and its 20-day simple moving average. Additionally, it appears to have broken above a minor downtrend that began on 28 April. If this momentum continues, EURUSD could rise back towards resistance at the upper Bollinger band, around 1.145, and perhaps even retest the 1.157 peak seen on 21 April.
Perhaps more importantly, a short-term trend reversal is underway, with the Relative Strength Index breaking above a short-term downtrend that started on 21 April. If this trend break holds, it would indicate that the recent decline in EURUSD has likely ended, setting the stage for another move higher.
Also supporting a potential rebound and move higher is the successful bounce of EURUSD off its 38.2% retracement level, measured from the lows established on 3 February to the highs of 21 April. Combined with the factors mentioned earlier, this suggests the next move for EURUSD is likely upwards.
However, if support fails to hold and EURUSD falls below 1.105, it could decline further towards the next support at 1.075, which corresponds to the 61.8% retracement level from the 3 February lows.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
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EURUSD – CME Gap and 0.786 Fib Align at Key Demand ZoneEURUSD has been trading with a strong bullish tone recently, breaking through previous resistance levels with conviction. However, after the latest impulse move to the upside, the market is now showing signs of exhaustion. Price has begun to pull back in a controlled manner, creating a potential opportunity for a deeper retracement into a more favorable area of interest. This kind of pullback is typical after an aggressive rally, and right now, there’s clear evidence that price may need to revisit lower levels before any further continuation higher.
Technical Confluence at Its Best:
Below the current range, there is a high-probability demand zone that combines three powerful elements: a well-respected historical support area, a CME gap that was left unfilled during the previous rally, and a 0.786 Fibonacci retracement from the latest bullish leg. These levels don’t just sit close to each other, they stack right on top of one another, forming a dense pocket of liquidity and technical confluence. The market often gravitates toward these types of zones to rebalance price and fuel the next directional move.
Short-Term Bearish Setup – Let Price Come to You:
The expectation is for price to dip lower in the short term. This would allow the market to tap into the unfilled CME gap and sweep the liquidity resting below the current structure. Traders who went long late in the move are likely to have their stops sitting just beneath recent lows, and this sets the stage for a classic inducement and stop hunt scenario. Price doesn't need to collapse, just a healthy retracement into this confluence zone to rebalance and refill the inefficiency before the real move begins.
Bullish Reversal Expectations:
Once price fills the CME gap and reaches into the 0.786 Fib retracement level, the focus shifts back to bullish. If the market holds this support cleanly and shows early signs of strength, like a displacement back above short-term structure or a strong engulfing candle, this could signal the beginning of a new upward leg. Given the context and momentum from the previous rally, it’s reasonable to anticipate a strong reaction that could drive price back toward the recent highs or potentially even higher.
The Psychology Behind the Setup:
This type of setup is a textbook example of how smart money operates. Price leaves a gap, traders pile in on the breakout, and then the market retraces to fill the imbalance and shake out weak hands before resuming the trend. Understanding the logic behind the CME gap, the liquidity below price, and how the Fib level ties everything together gives this setup depth. It’s not just about lines and zones, it’s about how liquidity flows through the market and how structure sets up to trap and reward.
Conclusion:
Patience is key. Rather than chasing the bullish momentum at current levels, the plan is to wait for price to revisit the zone where the CME gap, historical support, and the 0.786 Fib level align. That’s where the real value lies. If the reaction from this zone is clean and confirms strength, it offers a high-probability entry for the next leg up. No need to force anything, let the market come to you, then execute with precision.
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