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EURUSD trade ideas

EURUSD: Fed`s decision weekThe Fed's favorite inflation gauge in the US, the PCE Price Index, was standing at 0,2% in September, bringing the index to 2,1% on a yearly basis. Figures were in line with market expectations. The Personal Income was higher by 0,3% in September while Personal Spending was increased by 0,5% a bit higher from market estimate of 0,4%. The Non-farm payrolls again surprised markets with data for October reaching only 12K. This was a significant drop from 223K posted for the previous month and significantly lower from 180K forecasted by market. Unemployment rate in October was unchanged at 4.1%. Average Hourly Earnings were higher by 0,4% in October, leading to an yearly increase of 4%. As for other macro data published for the US, the GDP Growth rate in Q3 showed an acceleration of the US economy of 2.8% for the quarter, which was a bit lower from market forecast of 3%. The US House Price Index was higher by 0,3% in August, bringing the total increase of housing prices to 4,2% on a yearly basis. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for October reached the level of 46,5, which was a bit lower from market consensus of 47,6. The GfK Consumer Confidence in Germany in November was -18,3 which was a bit better from consensus of -20,5. Unemployment rate in Germany in October was higher by 0,1%, ending the month at 6,1%. The GDP Growth rate flash for Q3 was better than expected at the level of 0,2% for the quarter, while market expectations were standing at -0,1%. At the same time, GDP Growth rate on a yearly basis is still standing at the negative territory of -0,2%. The GDP Growth rate in the Euro Zone in Q3 was at the level of 0,4%, and 0,9% on a yearly basis. Inflation rate in Germany, preliminary for October, was standing at 2% for the year, and 0,4% for the month, which was a bit higher from market expectations of 1,8% and 0,2%. At the same time, the inflation rate in the Euro Zone for the same period was standing at 2,0% for the year and 0,3% for the month. Core inflation remained elevated at the level of 2,7% y/y. Unemployment rate in the Euro Zone remained flat in September at the level of 6,3%. The currency pair was traded in a mixed manner during the previous week, considering mixed macro data which was posted during the week. First half of the week, eurusd spent on a move from 1,08 support line and moved toward the highest weekly level at 1,09, a short term resistance line. Still, Friday's NFP was a huge surprise for markets, when the eurusd reverted back, ending the week at the level of 1,0834. The RSI reached its maximum weekly level at 45, indicating that the market is still not ready to cross the 50 line and start its move toward the overbought market side. The moving average of 50 days continues with its convergence toward the MA200. There is still a distance between lines, but also an indication that the cross might occur within a few weeks. The week ahead has the potential to be one of the most stressful trading weeks of the year. First, US Presidential elections are due on November 5th, which would certainly make markets react in line with an election outcome. Two days later, on November 7th, the Fed will decide on the further course of interest rates. Fed moves always imply higher market reactions, which implies that the week ahead might be one with higher market moves to one or both sides. Current charts are clearly showing that the market is uncertain which side to trade. On one side, there is some probability that the level of the 1,08 support line could be tested for one more time. There is also an indication for the resistance line at 1,10. Still, this level could be reached within a week or two, not necessarily in the week ahead. For the following week the much probable level could be 1,09, eventually 1,095. However, as previously noted, any surprises during the week, might trigger high volatility, so trading precaution is highly recommended. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: HCOB Manufacturing PMI final for October for Germany and the Euro Zone, HCOB Services PMI final for October for Germany and the Euro Zone, Balance of Trade for Germany in September, Industrial Production in Germany for September, USD: ISM Services PMI for October, Fed Interest Rate Decision, Fed Press Conference after the FOMC meeting, Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
by XBTFX
EUR/USD Analysis: Potential Bearish Continuation SetupIn this analysis, we’re looking at a potential bearish setup for the EUR/USD on the 15-minute timeframe. Here’s a closer look at the key elements of the chart and the rationale behind this bearish outlook. 1. Trendline Break Signals Bearish Shift The chart reveals an upward trendline that had been supporting price action over recent sessions. However, this trendline was decisively broken to the downside, suggesting that the previous bullish momentum may be fading. This trendline break is often an early sign of a shift in sentiment, indicating that sellers could be gaining control. 2. Identifying Supply Zones for a Potential Reversal Two supply zones have been identified on the chart, where we expect potential selling pressure if the price retraces to these levels. These zones represent areas where sellers could step in and push the price lower if the retracement brings the pair back to these resistance areas. Watching price action as it approaches these zones will be crucial. 3. Waiting for Bearish Confirmation Patterns To strengthen this bearish setup, we’re looking for specific candlestick patterns within the supply zones, namely an Evening Star or a Bearish Engulfing pattern. Both patterns indicate strong selling momentum and would act as confirmation that sellers are indeed stepping in. A sharp move downward from one of these patterns would provide an ideal entry signal for a short trade. 4. Projected Bearish Continuation If bearish patterns form within the highlighted supply zones, there’s a good probability of a continuation to the downside. The projected path, indicated by the downward arrow on the chart, suggests a move toward the lower support zone, near the 1.07915 level. This level serves as a key area of interest where price could find temporary support, making it a logical target for short positions. 5. Key Levels to Watch Currently, the price is hovering around the 1.08336 mark. If bearish patterns materialize and sellers continue to dominate, we could see a move towards the 1.07915 level. However, should price break above the supply zones without showing bearish patterns, it would invalidate this setup, and we’d reassess the outlook. Conclusion In summary, this analysis outlines a bearish scenario for EUR/USD based on a trendline break, potential supply zones, and confirmation through bearish candlestick patterns. Waiting for confirmation within these supply zones is essential to avoid premature entries. If these signals align, the 1.07915 area presents an attractive target for a potential downside move.
Short
by Wasbeer_121
EUR/USDFull Analysis of the EUR/USD Pair 1. Ascending Price Channel on the Daily Time Frame An ascending price channel is visible on the daily time frame, indicating a strong positive trend in the market. This pattern reflects upward momentum and enhances the likelihood of the trend continuing. 📈 2. Strong Demand Areas Strong demand areas have been identified on the chart, representing potential buying zones. If the price bounces from these areas, we may witness significant buying pressure that supports the upward movement. 💪 3. Appearance of a Harmonic Pattern The presence of a harmonic pattern suggests good opportunities for upward movement, reinforcing confidence in the bullish trend. 🌟 4. Overbought Conditions in RSI and MACD The overbought conditions in the RSI and MACD indicate a potential reversal. If the RSI is close to the 30 level (oversold) and the MACD shows divergence, this may be a strong signal to look for buying opportunities. 📊 Summary Based on the analysis mentioned, it is advisable to look for buying opportunities at the specified support levels. ✨ Be sure to set clear stop-loss points and manage risk carefully to protect your capital. 🚀💰
Long
by ShakerTrading
EURUSD 3/11/24This week, our bias on the Euro has shifted from short to long. This change is based on observing a shift in the higher time frame structure, as institutions appear to be showing interest in buying. Whether this move will be short-term or long-term remains to be seen. We’ll watch the price action in the first sessions of the week to get a clearer idea. Please note, this analysis follows the same principles and bias approach as always. Currently, there are no unmitigated demand areas on the 4-hour chart, and only a short-term supply area has formed. The area of demand we’ve highlighted is present only on the 1-hour chart, making it more of a smaller time frame reference than a higher one. We’ve marked key liquidity levels, which will serve as our reference points for potential upward movement this week. If the price interacts with the 1-hour demand area, we’ll aim for the high at the top of the current range. While I’m ultimately looking for a longer-term upward move, a pullback beforehand is possible. Stick to your plan and manage your risk.
by rosshayes
Charts for next week.US Dollar retreated after posting solid gains in recent weeks. Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 12,000 in October, falling short of market expectations. Markets remain almost fully pricing in a 25 bps cut by the Fed next week. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the USD against a basket of six currencies, rebounded intraday despite the weak jobs data as annual wage inflation rose to 4%, indicating that inflationary pressures remain elevated. In the meantime, markets remain almost fully expecting a 25 basis-point-cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) next week. On the data front, ISM PMIs also came in mixed from September. The DXY continues to trade sideways near 104.00. Despite persistent inflation, weak job growth data raises expectations of a less hawkish Fed stance, which might start to weaken the USD.
by EZIO-FX
EURUSD. Selling opportunitiesHello traders and investors! A detailed analysis of the currency pair can be found in the related post. A price drop to the 1.06011 level was expected. Weekly Timeframe Analysis On the weekly timeframe, the buyer's vector 7-8 is developing within the range. There was an attempt to resume buying from the buyer’s zone (green rectangle on the chart). The buyer’s bar with increased volume did not bring any results for the buyer: the bar’s closing price is within the seller’s bar with lower volume. Daily Timeframe Analysis On the daily timeframe, there was a manipulation of the level marking the beginning of the seller’s last impulse: a false breakout of the 1.08718 level aimed at gathering liquidity, followed by the price returning below the level. The buyer’s attack bar on this level has the highest volume among all buyer bars. The seller pushed the price back below the level, and a seller's zone was formed (red rectangle on the chart). Summary On the weekly timeframe, the buyer with increased volume failed to show results. On the daily timeframe, there was a manipulation of the seller's last impulse level. Priority: sales. Potential targets on the daily timeframe: 1.07821, 1.07612.
by AlexeyWolf
EURUSD Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in this analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
Long
by ShahedZare
EURUSD Will Move Higher! Long! Here is our detailed technical review for EURUSD. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The price is testing a key support 1.083. Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 1.099 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
Creating your Trading Plan🔸Creating a comprehensive trading plan is a foundational step for any trader, whether you are involved in forex, stocks, options, or crypto markets. A well-structured trading plan outlines your trading goals, strategy, risk management protocols, and the psychological mindset necessary for success. Let’s break down the core components: strategy, risk management, psychology, and confluence. 1. Trading Plan Strategy A trading strategy is a set of rules or guidelines you follow to identify, enter, and exit trades. Here are the elements to consider: ▪️Market Selection: Define which markets you will trade (e.g., forex pairs, stocks, cryptocurrencies) and what your time frames will be. ▪️Trading Style: Will you be a day trader, swing trader, or a long-term investor? Your style will influence your strategy. ▪️Entry and Exit Rules: Specify the technical or fundamental indicators that will trigger your trades. For example, you might use moving average crossovers, support and resistance levels, or candlestick patterns for entry and exit points. ▪️Trade Execution: Outline how you will place trades and manage your orders (e.g., market orders, limit orders, trailing stops). ▪️Backtesting: Before committing real money, test your strategy on historical data to understand its effectiveness. ▪️Example: Suppose your strategy involves trading breakouts. You would define what constitutes a breakout, how to confirm it, and the risk/reward ratio you expect before taking a trade. 2. Risk Management Risk management is about preserving your capital and minimizing losses. It's a critical part of any trading plan and focuses on controlling how much you stand to lose on each trade and how to protect your account over time. ▪️Position Sizing: Determine how much of your capital you will risk per trade. Many traders risk no more than 1-2% of their total capital on a single trade. ▪️Stop Losses and Take Profits: Always use a stop-loss to cap potential losses and set a take-profit order to lock in gains. This should be part of your trading strategy. ▪️Risk/Reward Ratio: Ensure that the potential reward on a trade is worth the risk. A common minimum risk/reward ratio is 1:2, meaning you risk 1 unit of currency to make 2. Diversification: Spread your risk by trading multiple assets or markets instead of concentrating all your capital in a single trade or asset class. ▪️Example: If your account balance is $10,000, and you decide to risk 2% per trade, the maximum loss you would accept on any trade would be $200. This would dictate your stop-loss placement and position size. 3. Trading Psychology The psychological aspect of trading is often underestimated, but emotions can greatly impact your decision-making. Maintaining a disciplined and objective mindset is crucial. ▪️Emotional Discipline: Avoid trading based on fear, greed, or impatience. Develop routines that keep your emotions in check. ▪️Handling Losses: Accept that losses are part of trading and learn not to let them affect your confidence or decision-making. Sticking to your plan, even after a loss, is crucial. ▪️Confidence and Patience: Build confidence in your strategy through thorough backtesting and practice. Be patient and wait for high-probability setups. ▪️Avoid Overtrading: This happens when traders try to chase losses or enter trades impulsively. Stick to your plan and don’t trade just for the sake of it. ▪️Example: If you find yourself becoming anxious or stressed during a losing streak, take a break from trading to reassess your mindset. Practicing mindfulness or keeping a trading journal to reflect on your emotions can be very helpful. 4. Confluence Confluence in trading refers to multiple factors or signals aligning to indicate a strong trade setup. Relying on confluence increases the probability of a trade working in your favor. ▪️Technical Confluence: This might include a combination of support/resistance levels, Fibonacci retracement levels, moving averages, or chart patterns lining up to give you a higher confidence trade. ▪️Fundamental and Technical Confluence: Sometimes, combining technical analysis with fundamental data can strengthen your trade setup. For instance, a bullish technical setup supported by positive economic news. ▪️Multiple Time Frame Analysis: Check if your trade setup looks strong on multiple time frames. For example, a bullish signal on a daily chart confirmed by a shorter time frame like 4-hour or 1-hour charts. ▪️Example: Imagine you see a bullish reversal candlestick pattern at a major support level, and your moving average indicates an upward trend. This confluence of signals might give you more confidence to enter a long position. 🔸Putting It All Together A successful trading plan ties these elements together to give you a clear roadmap. Here’s a simplified example of a trading plan: 🔸Goal: Achieve 5% account growth per month. Market: Trade major forex pairs (e.g., EUR/USD, GBP/USD) during the London and New York sessions. 🔸Strategy: Use a breakout strategy confirmed by volume and momentum indicators. Enter trades when a breakout occurs from a key support/resistance level. 🔸Risk Management: Risk 1.5% of the account balance per trade. Use a 1:2 risk/reward ratio. 🔸Psychology: Practice emotional discipline. Use a trading journal to record trades and emotions. 🔸Confluence: Only take trades when at least three confluence factors align (e.g., breakout, volume increase, trend confirmation). 🔸By crafting and following a trading plan that incorporates strategy, risk management, psychology, and confluence, you increase your chances of trading success while minimizing potential losses.
Education
by ProjectSyndicate
12