EURUSDToday's EUR/USD analysis focuses on the market's behavior around critical levels, which are likely targets for stop hunting. Price seems to be deliberately moving towards areas with high stop-loss clusters, such as .
#EURUSD
EURUSD trade ideas
SELL EUR/USD (A Fundamental and Technical Outlook)Results May Vary: 1.01-1.015 range of exit
1) Volume rally shows investor sentiment into USD as many countries are faced with tariffs from the Trump Administration with heavy FDI inflow.
- FDI will continue as foreign investors flow capital into GOLD/USD/CHF (safe haven) to offset local volatility.
- High likelihood Trump goes through with tariffs which would damage everyone, including US. However, US would be hurt less, solidifying US dominance as his pride. (Need to watch for every Euro Zone country accounts).
- Inauguration 01/20/2024
2) Euro Zone in heavy recession with rate cuts showing limited stimulation.
3) Investor sentiment, insane USD overvaluation short term.
4) Post market hours show price consolidating with complete flat line volatility.
5) Other factors also play in. EUR/USD trade compatibility allows KEY Government Leaders to make irrational decisions for benefit of own countries. Gov stability in Euro Zone will also attribute to EUR growth. Many factors to watch out for.
possibility of uptrendIt is expected that the corrective pattern will end in the current support range and we will witness the beginning of the upward trend.
If the price breaks through the 100% level, the above scenario will be invalid
EUR/USD 4H Timeframe AnalysisEUR/USD 4H Timeframe Analysis
Trend Analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD is displaying a bearish structure with a triple top formation at the minor key resistance level of 1.04400. After forming the second top, the price broke below the minor key support at 1.03400, retested it, and then formed the third top at resistance.
Currently, the price is trending downward toward the minor key support at 1.03400, indicating a potential breakout below this level to continue the bearish momentum.
Price Action Expectation:
Our objective is to wait for the price to break below the 1.03400 support. A break below this level will confirm further downside, providing an opportunity for a short position.
Fundamental Correlation:
The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Claims reports scheduled for release later today are critical events that could heavily impact the USD.
Stronger-than-expected ADP data and lower-than-expected unemployment claims would indicate a robust labor market, potentially strengthening the USD and aligning with our bearish view on EUR/USD.
Trade Setup:
Trade Type: Sell Stop (Breakout Trade)
Entry: 1.03340 (on confirmation of a break below support)
Stop Loss: 1.04360 (above the resistance to account for false breakouts)
Take Profit: 1.01220 (next significant support level)
Conclusion:
EUR/USD is poised for a potential bearish continuation, with the triple top formation and recent retests suggesting further downside. The upcoming ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Claims data could provide the catalyst for a breakout below 1.03400. Wait for confirmation of a break below this level before entering a short position.
Risk Management:
Maintain a disciplined approach with a 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio. Position sizes should align with your account equity, and it’s crucial to monitor real-time price reactions to validate or invalidate the setup, especially during and after the news releases.
Decline in EURUSDYesterday, EURUSD bounced off the first resistance level and dropped back below 1,0400.
The goal is to continue the bearish trend and break the previous low.
On Friday, key news for the USD is expected, which will likely cause significant fluctuations and determine the next move.
The idea becomes invalid if the price moves above 1,0437!
Fundamental Market Analysis for January 8, 2024 EURUSDEvents to pay attention to today:
15:15 EET. USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes
EURUSD:
On Tuesday, the EUR/USD exchange rate declined against the US dollar, falling by four-tenths of a percentage point after a failed recovery to 1.04000. The pair is currently trading below last week's 26-month low, but the difference is minimal. Market analysts are optimistic about a reversal, as the Federal Reserve continues to recover towards 1.02000.
The European Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) was published in line with expectations, with the annual HICP for the year ending December rising slightly to 2.4% y/y from the previous reading of 2.2%.However, much of the upward pressure in European inflation figures appears to be either embedded in older figures or related to non-structural items, giving Euro traders some hope that things will continue to improve.
In contrast, the US ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) business activity survey and the ISM Services price data for December were both weaker than expected, raising concerns among market participants that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may not be able to deliver as many rate cuts in 2025 as investors had originally anticipated.
In the US, the agenda for the upcoming trading session includes the release of December ADP employment change data and the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting. While ADP employment data is not considered a reliable predictor of Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, traders are not overreacting to significant deviations from forecasts.Investors will be looking for any indications that could potentially lead to a rate cut before June, which includes a notable softening of the labour market.
Trading recommendation: Trading mainly by Sell orders from the current price level.
EURUSD 1H MARK UP 10:58PMTrendline representing slight uptrend
- hoping to bounce off trend line, can possibly break pass trendline
Fibonacci placement
TP1
TP2 ?
Learn What is Confirmation Bias | Trading Psychology Basics
In this educational article, we will discuss one of the most common cognitive errors of newbie traders - a confirmation bias.
In order to better understand that term, I want to start with the example:
Let's say that after doing some research, you are highly convinced that Bitcoin is bullish and that it is a decent investment.
You decide to buy that from 90.000 level, expecting the exponential growth.
Instead of growing, however, the market starts falling rapidly.
Rather than closing your position in loss, you decide to do a new research and execute the analysis, you start looking for the proof of your pre-existing beliefs. You completely neglect the voices of Bitcoin sceptics and ignore bearish clues on the price chart.
You consider only the facts that support a bullish outloo k, not letting you accept the other point of view.
You become a victim of a confirmation bias.
Unfortunately, such a psychological trap frequently prevents a closing of a trading position in time, leading to substantial losses.
Confirmation bias is a common psychological error that makes a subject overvalue the information that upholds his existing beliefs and undervalue the opposing one.
Here are the most common symptoms of that trap:
1️⃣One is neglecting the objective facts.
2️⃣One is interpreting information in a way to support the existing beliefs.
3️⃣One is considering only the facts that conform with his point of view.
4️⃣One is completely ignoring the information that challenges his beliefs.
The only way to beat a confirmation bias in trading, is to learn to analyze the market from sellers' and from buyers' perspective . Your task is to compare the view of the 2 sides, and pick the one that is stronger, holding in mind the fact that everything can change.
You should always remember of the changing nature of financial markets and be ready to always reassess your views.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
EURUSD - Bottom in for the Euro?Possible count for the EURUSD. Lots of pessimism surrounding Europe and the Euro so perhaps a good time to be a bit contrarian. This counts suggest an ABC correction at the moment with the C wave just starting. Some divergence also showing up in the RSI.
EURUSDWell, we have a resistance level that the price reacted to and created a suitable pattern that I think this rally continues and I want to enter this rally with a suitable position.
EURUSD H1 | Bearish ReversalBased on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 1.0376, which is a pullback resistance close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit will be at 1.0308, a pullback support level close to a 61.8% Fibo retracement.
The stop loss will be at 1.0437, a swing high resistance level.
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EURUSD Trading JournalEURUSD Trading Journal
Jan 8
Yesterday Price did retrace Mondays efficient FVG. Price did come up to the .70 and past it creating equal highs before gravitating to the equal lows for the low target for today.
I could see Price consolidate in Asia maybe London after 2 huge range days and 3 red folder for DXY in NY session. That said I suspect that Price will gravitate to the .50 where there is a H FVG and press up to the .79 H FVG and possibly the clean equal highs.
Trading Signal for EUR/USD for January 8-10, 2025? The euro is trading around 1.0404, making a technical correction after an attempt to break the bearish trend channel but without success.
On the h4 chart. we see technical correction. Therefore, if EUR/USD consolidates below 1.0430, it could continue its fall in the coming days until the price reaches the 21 SMA located at 1.0335.
If the euro breaks and consolidates below 1.0330, we could expect a return to the lows of early January around 1.0227. This level is key and it is expected that in this area the euro will find good support which could give it a new bullish impulse.
Conversely, if the euro consolidates and breaks above 1.0430, it is likely to continue rising and could reach 1.0477, 1.0498, and even 7/8 Murray at 1.0620.
Neutral on closeLeading on from yesterday where I'd used the weekly range, I now favour the accuracy of the daily levels since we have more data.
We're presented with a bearish candle that closed inside the range of the highlighted parent candle.
So, that FVG on DXY is still there, also the pound swept yesterday's high.
It seems neutral, eh?
I still think there will be short term buying.
At this moment in time, it's still too soon for me to enter this trade. I will check the 9am open for any potential after the red flag news. Otherwise, see you after 5pm EST.
EURUSD Wave Analysis 7 January 2025
- EURUSD reversed up from resistance zone
- Likely to fall to support level 1.0255
EURUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance zone set between the resistance level 1.0435 (which has been steadily reversing the price from the end of December), 20-day moving average, 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from December.
The downward reversal from this resistance zone continues the active minor impulse wave 3 from the start of last month.
Given the clear daily downtrend, EURUSD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.0255 (which reversed the price sharply at the start of January).
#eurusd #elliottwave long buy setup wave c 8Jan25This count is based on my assumptions so anything can happen not a trading or financial advice just for educational purposes only kindly do your own ta thanks trade with care good luck.
EURUSD Buy signal on (4h)EURUSD is trading inside a Channel Down and is pulling back on the (4h) time frame after a double top near the MA200 (4h).
The crossing under the MA50 (4h) is following a pattern similar to December 2nd, which turns it now into a buy opportunity.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 1.04500 (MA200 4h and under the +2.88% move that December did).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is approaching the 40.00 level of the December 2nd bounce. Additional buy signal.
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EU EURUSD - SHORT
In tmf 1h we have a mss in structure , that creat the FVG
when filled we enter the market and tp its around 1.0300 - 1.02400
EURUSD POTENTIAL BUYING OPPERTUNITY Currently approaching a nice area of interest. Although I am overall short EURUSD doesn't mean I can't look for intraday trades to capitalise on the moves in between.
2H internal is bullish so I am waiting for the 15 min to align with the higher time frame a take a long trade targeting the 2H high.
If price breaks below this area I will have to re-evaluate and possibly short along with the 15 min time frame until I am wrong.
EURO/USD going to bearish EUR/USD Analysis:
I anticipate the EUR/USD market will move downward in the near term. My target price for this movement is [insert your target level,
Technical AnalysisEURUSD potential 700pip drop
We have a clear breakout to the downside.
Weekly candle close below this level and I’ll be looking for sell opportunities.
Bullish bounce off 50% Fibonacci support?EUR/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.0335
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.0265
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 1.0442
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
