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EURUSD trade ideas

Chart Overview (EUR/USD — 4H)Pair: EUR/USD Timeframe: 4 Hour Current Price: 1.13596 Key Concept Highlighted: “This is where money is made — in the retrace, not the rally.” (Focus is on catching retracements, not chasing rallies) --- Technical Breakdown 1. Wave Count (Elliott Wave context assumed) The chart labels wave iii as complete. A corrective move is underway (likely forming wave iv). The next anticipated move is wave v rally to the upside — target zone shown near 1.22000–1.20000. 2. Key Zones Immediate Support/Buy Zone: Small rectangle near the current price (likely minor demand zone). Major Buy Zone: 1.10500–1.11500 (approximate) → Strong demand area backed by confluence of: Previous wave structure support Trendline retest Cluster of economic event icons (suggesting high volatility catalysts) 3. Bias Waiting for price to either: Bounce from the immediate small support (early aggressive long), or Dip deeper into the major buy zone for safer long entries. ---
by Greenfireforex
Key Levels and Market Sentiment for EUR/USDOverview: The EUR/USD pair has shown notable movements within the marked support and resistance zones on the 30-minute chart. Current price action provides opportunities for both short-term trading and a potential breakout scenario. Key Levels: Resistance Zone: 1.13901 Support Zone: 1.12393 Current Price: 1.13764 as of 11:43 (local time) The resistance at 1.13901 has been tested multiple times, suggesting a strong seller presence. Conversely, the 1.12393 support zone indicates a significant accumulation area for buyers. Volume Profile Insights: The volume distribution highlights concentrated trading activity around the mid-range levels, reflecting market indecision. A breakout from either the resistance or support zone could lead to substantial momentum. Outlook: A breakout above the resistance at 1.13901 may signal further bullish momentum, targeting higher levels within the 1.14200 range. A breakdown below the support at 1.12393 might open the door for bearish continuation towards lower price levels. Traders should watch for confirmations, such as volume spikes or candlestick patterns, before entering positions. Closing Thoughts: Consistency | Discipline | Perseverance are the hallmarks of successful trading. Keep these principles in mind as you navigate the EUR/USD market this week.
Short
by PIPSPHERE_NETWORK
DeGRAM | EURUSD Declining From the Supply Zone📊 Technical Analysis ● EUR/USD stays below the broken resistance line. ● While under $1.144, the chart favors a slide to 1.131 → 1.12. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● U.S. yields remain elevated, supporting the dollar. ✨ Summary Stalling Euro-area growth and firm U.S. yields reinforce the technical breakdown. A daily close below 1.131 should accelerate the decline towards 1.12. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
Short
by DeGRAM
1
EURUSD(20250430) Today's AnalysisMarket news: The European Central Bank expects prices to rise 2.9% over the next 12 months, up from 2.6% in February, according to a monthly survey released on Tuesday. This is the highest level since April 2024. The three-year indicator rose slightly to 2.5%. The ECB's first five-year forecast was 2.1%. Technical analysis: Today's buying and selling boundaries: 1.1391 Support and resistance levels: 1.1443 1.1424 1.1411 1.1372 1.1359 1.1340 Trading strategy: If the price breaks through 1.1391, consider buying, the first target price is 1.1411 If the price breaks through 1.1372, consider selling, the first target price is 1.1359
Short
by Toml1314
EURUSD – Triangle Consolidation Nearing CompletionEURUSD is currently completing a contracting triangle formation within a larger corrective structure. According to Elliott Wave Theory, this appears to be an ABC correction, with wave B unfolding as a classic contracting triangle pattern (ABCDE). The chart highlights the subwaves: 🔸 (A), (B), (C), and (D) have completed, 🔸 Wave (E) is anticipated next—likely to test the upper boundary of the triangle before a breakdown resumes the bearish impulse. 📍 The invalidation point is clearly marked—any breakout above this would invalidate the triangle scenario and call for a reassessment of the wave count. Bias remains bearish following wave (E), expecting a strong move down upon completion of the triangle.
Short
by MrLiquidonFX
EURUSD is moving within the 1.12725 - 1.5750 range👀 Possible scenario: The euro fell 0.28% against the U.S. dollar on April 29 amid rising uncertainty over U.S. inflation and unclear central bank policy paths. That same day, President Trump signed executive orders introducing relief measures to offset new auto tariffs, while trade talks showed modest progress with deals nearing completion with India and South Korea. Despite temporary market relief, concerns remain over the economic impact of tariffs. On April 30, traders will watch key Eurozone GDP reports, which could move EUR/USD below 1.1300 or up toward 1.1430, depending on the results. ✅Support and Resistance Levels Now, the support level is located at 1.12725. Resistance level is now located at 1.15750.
by MaxOnMarkets
What Is SMT Divergence, and How Can You Use It in Trading?What Is SMT Divergence, and How Can You Use It in Trading? SMT divergence, or Smart Money Technique divergence, is a concept used by traders to analyse imbalances in correlated markets. By identifying when price movements deviate between related instruments, traders can uncover potential shifts in market momentum, often linked to institutional activity. This article explores what SMT divergence is, how SMT divergence trading works, and its practical applications. What Is SMT Divergence? SMT divergence, short for Smart Money Technique divergence, refers to a specific type of price discrepancy between two correlated financial instruments. Part of the Inner Circle Trader (ICT) methodology, this divergence is often interpreted as a sign of institutional or "smart money" activity, as it highlights potential inefficiencies or imbalances in the market. Here’s how an ICT SMT divergence works: correlated instruments—like EUR/USD and GBP/USD in forex, or major stock indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ—typically move in the same direction under normal market conditions. SMT divergence occurs when one instrument makes a higher high or lower low, while the other fails to follow suit. This inconsistency suggests that buying or selling pressure may be uneven across these markets, often caused by larger market participants adjusting their positions. For example, if EUR/USD forms a new high, while GBP/USD lags behind and fails to break its previous high. This divergence could indicate waning momentum in one pair, hinting at a potential reversal or shift in the overall market structure. Traders analysing SMT divergence often see these moments as key opportunities to assess whether institutional players might be involved. To identify an SMT divergence, you can monitor two correlated assets’ charts and observe discrepancies. Also, there are SMT divergence indicators for MT4, MT5, and TradingView available online that can automate the process. The Core Components of SMT Divergence SMT divergence relies on three key components: correlated instruments, divergence between price movements, and the involvement of institutional players. Understanding these elements is crucial for applying this concept. 1. Correlated Instruments At the heart of SMT divergence is the relationship between correlated markets. These are instruments that typically move in tandem due to shared economic drivers. For instance, in forex, pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD often exhibit similar trends because they’re influenced by the strength of the US dollar, as well as their close regional ties and trade relationships. In equities, indices like the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 often align because they reflect broader market sentiment and contain overlapping stocks. 2. Divergence in Price Movements The divergence occurs when these typically correlated instruments fail to move in sync. For example, one instrument may reach a higher high, while the other stalls or even reverses. This mismatch is more than just noise—it can signal a deeper imbalance in the market, often linked to uneven supply and demand dynamics. It’s these price discrepancies that traders scrutinise to identify potential turning points. 3. Institutional Activity One of the reasons SMT divergence is so closely watched is its potential link to smart money behaviour. Institutions often use correlated instruments to mask their actions, creating subtle imbalances that only become apparent through careful analysis. For instance, when one correlated pair lags, it might reflect deliberate accumulation or distribution by larger players. How Traders Analyse SMT Divergence Analysing SMT divergence helps in understanding the nuanced relationship between correlated instruments and interpreting these imbalances correctly. Unlike leading correlations—such as oil influencing the Canadian dollar—SMT divergence doesn’t rely on one asset consistently driving the other. Instead, it focuses on shifts in momentum where neither instrument is the leader, but their combined behaviour hints at potential market moves. Identifying Divergence Traders start by observing price action in two correlated instruments or timeframes. SMT divergence becomes apparent when one instrument forms a higher high or lower low, while the other fails to do so. For example, if EUR/USD makes a higher high, but GBP/USD stalls below its previous peak, this inconsistency could signal fading bullish momentum in the broader market. The key is that neither asset leads; instead, the divergence itself provides the signal. Some common correlations traders use include: - Forex Pairs: EUR/USD and GBP/USD USD/JPY and USD/CHF DXY and USD/CAD - Cryptocurrencies*: BTC/USD and ETH/USD - Equity Indices: S&P 500 and NASDAQ FTSE 100 and DAX - Treasuries: US 10-Year Treasury Yield and USD/JPY - Commodities: Brent Crude and WTI Crude Oil Interpreting Divergence at Extremes SMT divergence is particularly significant when it occurs at market highs or lows. When divergence appears at highs—such as one instrument making a higher high while the other fails—it often signals a potential bearish reversal in the stronger instrument. Conversely, at lows, if one makes a lower low while the other holds firm, it may indicate a potential bullish reversal in the weaker one. This imbalance highlights where momentum might shift. Adding Context Traders rarely rely on an SMT divergence strategy alone. They often look for supporting evidence, such as volume analysis, market structure shifts, or order flow data, to confirm the signal. For instance, divergence combined with signs of institutional selling near a high could strengthen the case for a bearish move. SMT Divergence in Different Market Conditions SMT divergence behaves differently depending on market conditions, offering traders insights that vary between trending and ranging environments. Its effectiveness hinges on the context in which it appears, so understanding how it adapts to different scenarios is key. Trending Markets In trending markets, SMT divergence often signals potential reversals or pauses in momentum. For example, in a strong uptrend, divergence at a new high (where one correlated instrument makes a higher high while the other does not) can indicate waning buying pressure. This inconsistency might suggest that institutional players are beginning to reduce their positions or shift market direction. A similar principle applies in downtrends: divergence at a fresh low, where one instrument breaks lower while the other doesn’t, could signal that bearish momentum is losing steam. Traders often use these moments to reassess their analysis and consider the possibility of a reversal or pullback within the trend. Ranging Markets In a range-bound environment, SMT divergence takes on a different role. Rather than hinting at trend reversals, it often highlights potential breakouts or false moves. For instance, during a consolidation phase, if one correlated instrument makes a sharp move outside the range while the other stays contained, it may signal that the breakout is unsustainable and a reversal back into the range is likely. Alternatively, if both instruments diverge significantly at the edges of the range, it could suggest that smart money is accumulating or distributing positions in preparation for a breakout. Different Asset Classes SMT divergence isn’t limited to one market type. In forex, it often reveals imbalances caused by macroeconomic drivers like central bank policies. In equities, it can signal sector rotation or institutional adjustments. Commodities, particularly oil or gold, may show divergence influenced by supply and demand dynamics. Limitations and Common Misconceptions While SMT divergence is a powerful tool for analysing market imbalances, it’s important to understand its limitations and avoid common misconceptions. Misinterpreting divergence can lead to flawed decisions, especially if it’s viewed in isolation or without proper context. Limitations - False Signals: Not all divergences indicate institutional activity or meaningful shifts in the market. Low liquidity or erratic price movements can create divergence that doesn’t hold significance. - Context Dependency: SMT divergence requires a solid understanding of market conditions. Its reliability decreases in highly volatile or choppy environments where correlations break down temporarily. - Not a Standalone Tool: Relying solely on SMT divergence can be risky. Traders use it alongside other forms of analysis, such as market structure or volume data. Common Misconceptions - Always Linked to Institutional Activity: Not every instance of SMT divergence involves smart money. Divergences can also result from retail trading activity or macroeconomic events. - Predicting Market Direction: SMT divergence doesn’t guarantee outcomes; it highlights imbalances. Further analysis is needed to evaluate whether the market will reverse, continue, or consolidate. - Universal Applicability: While it works across various markets, not all instruments are equally suitable for SMT divergence due to differences in liquidity or drivers. Practical Applications of SMT Divergence SMT divergence is a versatile analytical method that traders use to refine their strategies and deepen their understanding of market dynamics. Here’s how it’s typically applied in practice: Identifying Market Turning Points One of the most common uses of SMT divergence is spotting potential reversals. When divergence appears at key highs or lows, it often signals that momentum is shifting. When combined with other common trading tools, such as support and resistance, as well as ICT methodology concepts like order blocks and fair value gaps, this can be used to time entries or adjust risk exposure. Potentially Enhancing Risk Management SMT divergence can potentially enhance risk management by offering early warnings about changes in market conditions. If divergence aligns with other factors—such as weakening volume or significant resistance/support levels—it can serve as a signal to tighten stops or reduce position sizes, depending on the trader’s broader approach. At the same time, it can also provide clear boundaries for setting stop losses. If a trader has confidence that a reversal in one asset is likely due to an SMT divergence, then a stop loss can be placed immediately after the maximum or minimum of the divergence. The Bottom Line The SMT divergence is a valuable tool for understanding market imbalances and spotting potential turning points. By combining it with other analysis methods, traders can gain deeper insights into price action. FAQ What Does Divergence Mean in Trading? Divergence in trading refers to a mismatch between the price action of an asset and a technical indicator or between two correlated instruments. It often signals a potential change in trend, as the imbalance suggests a shift in market momentum. What Is SMT in Trading? SMT in trading stands for Smart Money Technique. SMT divergence is one of the ICT trading concepts. It focuses on identifying market imbalances that may reflect the activity of institutional traders, seen through divergence between correlated instruments. What Does SMT Divergence Mean? The SMT divergence meaning refers to an occasion when two correlated instruments fail to move in sync. One can make a higher high while the other does not or one can make a lower low while the other doesn’t. This indicates potential smart money involvement and signals a possible trend shift. What Is an Example of SMT Divergence? A common example is in forex, where EUR/USD forms a higher high, but GBP/USD does not. This divergence could suggest fading bullish momentum, signalling a possible reversal in EUR/USD. What Is the Strongest Divergence Indicator? While SMT divergence itself is powerful, traders often combine it with indicators like RSI or volume profiles for added confirmation. The strongest signals come from divergence paired with a broader market context. *Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
EUR/USD Long Trade SetupThis is a bullish setup on EUR/USD following a clean rejection from a key support zone around 1.13500. Price action shows a breakout from a descending wedge, with a retest confirming support. Entry is taken at 1.138xx with a stop loss just below the structure at 1.13516. Target is set near the 1.1515 resistance zone, offering a solid risk-to-reward ratio. Key Notes: • Structure breakout and retest confirmation • Demand zone aligned with previous lows • Risk-to-reward greater than 1:3 • Monitoring price action for continuation This setup aligns with both technical confluence and market structure. Let’s see how it plays out.
Long
by Profx001
EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W18 D30 Y25EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W18 D30 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Weekly order block rejection ✅Daily order block rejection ✅Intraday 15' order blocks ✅Tokyo ranges to be filled 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Short
by JCFRGNT
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