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EURUSD trade ideas

EURUSD Sell signal at the top of the Channel Up.Last time we analyzed the EURUSD pair (June 23, see chart below) we gave a strong buy signals at the bottom of the 1.5-month Channel Up: The price is almost near our Target but since it's been consolidating for so many 4H candles on the pattern's top, it is better to take the good profit and turn bearish. The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level has been a solid target for the previous two Bearish Legs, but since the last one bottomed just above it on the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), we will place the Target a little higher this time also at 1.16100. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
EURUSD – Bearish Pressure IntensifiesEURUSD is currently facing rejection at the GAP resistance area near 1.17350, combined with a lower high structure forming within the ascending channel. Price action shows clear signs of weakness after filling the GAP, and the aligned FVG zones below suggest a potential for deeper downside. If the price remains capped below 1.17350, there is a high probability of a pullback toward the 1.16300 support area — which aligns with the long-term ascending trendline. A break below this level could extend the bearish move toward the deeper region near 1.14500. Supporting Fundamentals: Strong US Core PCE → reinforces expectations that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer. Weak EU manufacturing PMI → puts pressure on the euro. FOMC minutes and NFP — if hawkish — could strengthen the USD and weigh further on EURUSD.
Short
by Rocky_trade_
EURUSD @ MAJOR SUPPLY ZONE, IS IT TIME FOR SELLERS TO TAKE OVERIn this 15m chart we have MAJOR SUPPLY AREA around 1.1723 SMALL TIME FRAME we can see heavily been REJECTED @ this SUPPLY AREA & now we kinda form DOUBLE TOP FORMATION (keep in mind DOUBLE TOP not Valid till we BREAK NECK around 1.169) My plan to take this in once we BREAK DOUBLE TOP NECK LINE AND RETESTED, OR EVEN BETTER GO IN AFTER UP WARD TREND BROKEN Still i have my eye on 1.113 but as usual will close some along the way I will update once im in Thanks
Short
by donchichi1
Impulse completed?EUR/USD maintains its bullish trend intact after a sharp rally last week. The pair keeps consolidating gains as the 4-hour Relative Strength Index pulls back from overbought levels and price action is constrained within a 70-pip range, right below a nearly four-year high at 1.1750. Today, price hit upside target at the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level of the June 10-12 rally at 1.1795. I Think we might see a correction for the eurusd as the impulse seems to be completed.
by TRADINGACPVIP
EURUSD: focus on jobs dataThe major macro data for this week, the PCE indicator, was posted on Friday. The Personal Consumption Expenditure index, Feds favorite inflation gauge, increased by 0,1% in May, bringing the index to the level of 2,3% on a yearly basis. Both figures were in line with market expectations. The core PCE was a bit higher than anticipated, at the level of 0,2% for the month and 2,7% for the year. A bit surprising figures came from Personal Income in May, which dropped by -0,4%, while the Personal Spending was down by -0,1% in May. Analysts are noting that implemented trade tariffs are slowly beginning to reflect in the personal spending of the US citizens. Also, this sort of potential development was noted by the Fed during the last two FOMC meetings. The rest of posted macro data for the US included the Existing Home Sales in May reached 4,03M, which was an increase of 0,8% on a monthly basis. This was significantly above the market estimate of -1,3%. The Durable Goods Orders in May were higher by 16,4%, surpassing the market estimate of 8,5%. The GDP Growth Rate final for Q1was standing in a negative territory of -0,5% for the quarter, and was higher from market expectation of -0,2%. The end of the week brought University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment figures final for June, which was standing at 60,7 and was in line with estimates. The Inflation Expectations were a bit higher from the previous estimate, ending the June with expected 5% inflation, while the market was expecting to see 5,1%. The HCOB Manufacturing PMI flash for June in Germany was standing at the level of 49, while the same index for the Euro Zone reached 49,4. Both indicators were in line with market expectations. The Ifo Business Climate in Germany in June reached 88,4, in line with market estimates. The GfK Consumer Confidence in July was at the level of -20,3, a bit higher from estimated -19,3. The eurusd was traded with a bullish sentiment during the previous week. The currency pair started the week around the level of 1,1460 and continued toward the upside for the rest of the week. The highest weekly level at 1,1741 was reached in Friday's trading session. The RSI reached the clear overbought market side as of the end of the week, at the level of 71. The MA50 continues to diverge from MA200, without an indication that the potential cross is near. The market favored the euro during the last two weeks. It comes as a result of insecurity when it comes to potential negative impact of implemented trade tariffs, which are slowly revealing in the US economy. The week ahead brings more jobs data, including JOLTs, NFP and unemployment rate, which will shape the investors sentiment. Some increased volatility might be ahead. The resistance level at 1,17 has been clearly tested during the previous week, and it will mark the beginning of the week ahead. The RSI is pointing to a higher probability of a short term reversal in the coming period, which might occur in the week ahead, impacted, most probably, by jobs data. In case of a reversal, the level of 1,1620 might easily be the next target. On the opposite side, there is a lower probability of a further move above the 1,17 level, however, the market might spend some time here, before a decision to make further move. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: Retail Sales in May in Germany, Inflation Rate preliminary in June for both Germany and the Euro Zone, Unemployment Rate in June in Germany, USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI in June, JOLTs Job Openings in May, Non-farm Payrolls in June, Unemployment rate in June, Average Hourly Earnings and Spending, ISM Services PMI in June
by XBTFX
Short for the next swing low.Is EURO bull run gonna end? ECB vs Fed Policy Paths Federal Reserve officials are divided but generally more cautious about cutting rates soon. In mid-June the Fed held rates steady at 4.25–4.50% and forecast only two 25bp cuts in 2025 Chair Powell warned of “meaningful” inflation coming from U.S. tariffs implying cuts may be delayed. Indeed, Fed Governor Bowman recently said she would support a rate cut “as soon as” the July meeting if inflation remains contained highlighting internal debate. In contrast, the ECB has already started lowering rates. After its June 5 decision to cut 25bp to 2.0%, Goldman Sachs analysts see two more ECB cuts (bringing deposit rates toward ~1.5% by year-end) As one strategist noted, “market pricing now shows a big gap between ECB and Fed rate cut expectations…Fed remains hamstrung by inflation,” keeping U.S. yields relatively high a stickier Fed (fewer cuts) versus a more dovish ECB (more cuts) would favor USD strength and EUR weakness. Geopolitical and Eurozone Risks Europe’s two largest economies face looming elections and weak coalitions. Fitch Solutions notes “Germany is set to hold early elections in February 2025” complicated by far-right gains, while France “is currently being governed by a weak coalition” with rising debt risks Such instability can undermine confidence in the euro. Slow growth: Eurozone growth is sluggish. After a 0.2% contraction in Germany, Fitch warns that “Germany and Italy weighing on aggregate growth forecasts” in 2025 Anemic output makes the euro vulnerable, especially if the U.S. economy outperforms. Labor market tightening: Euro-area unemployment is low (~6.3%), but conditions are “unjustifiably tight” given the weak economy Any economic slowdown could quickly raise Eurozone joblessness, pressuring the euro. Trade/tariff risks: A return to U.S. protectionism (e.g. renewed tariffs) could hit European exporters. Trump presidency could strain EU–US relations and dent demand for Eurozone exports Even talk of fresh tariffs tends to boost the safe-haven dollar over the euro.
Short
by Profit_zone
EURUSD 30Min Engaged ( Bullish Entry Detected )————- ➕ Objective: Precision Volume Execution Time Frame: 30-Minute Warfare Entry Protocol: Only after volume-verified breakout 🩸 Bullish Wave Coming From : 1.18050 ➗ Hanzo Protocol: Volume-Tiered Entry Authority ➕ Zone Activated: Dynamic market pressure detected. The level isn’t just price — it’s a memory of where they moved size. Volume is rising beneath the surface — not noise, but preparation. 🔥 Tactical Note: We wait for the energy signature — when volume betrays intention. The trap gets set. The weak follow. We execute.
Long
by Path_Of_Hanzo
EUR/USD short: The markets are finally ignoring the noise. Hello traders I have taken a break from trying to trade this chaotic mess we have witnessed over the last few months. Liberation Day, Big Beautiful Bill, the Middle East as volatile as ever, Iranian nukes destroyed, etc. etc. On the domestic USA front we have also witnessed daily headlines of the Trump administration being sued, anti-immigration campaign promises being fulfilled, the Judicial system being undermined, for the Love of God, the President of the United States of America saying that he will have to check with his lawyers if he should observe the constitution. And...the independence of the FOMC being threatened on a daily basis. So much for law and order. Smoke and mirrors, folks. Distractions and chaos. But the technical indicators never lie. The indicators also reflect the true fundamentals. In this case, USA inflation is heading higher again. keep an eye on tomorrow's CPE print. Labor market seems OK for now. Therefore, the two projected rate cuts by the FOMC for 2025 have already been priced into the DXY and US 10Y yield. No amount of bullying or public pondering who Chair Powell's replacement will be, can change the fundamentals. Inflation is rearing it's ugly head again. Gold and Bitcoin are both showing daily dojis. The EUR/USD has already turned down from the 0.786% Fibonacci and there is clear divergence between price and RSI. The parallel up channel also seems to confirm an impending downturn in EUR/USD. I did initiate a short EUR/USD position at 1.1688 and my entry order to add to the position at 1.1740 just shy of the 0.786% Fibonacci was also fulfilled. Best of luck all.
Short
by jvrfxalerts
Market Insights with Gary Thomson: 30 June - 4 JulyMarket Insights with Gary Thomson: Eurozone Inflation, US Jobs, ISM PMIs, ECB Forum Updates In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events, market trends, and corporate news shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for expert insights into forex, commodities, and stocks to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in! In this episode, we discuss: — Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Flash — US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate — US ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI — ECB Forum on Central Banking Note: U.S. markets may see thin trading ahead of the 4 July holiday, raising volatility risks. Don’t miss out—gain insights to stay ahead in your trading journey. This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
EURUSD: Correction to 1D MA50 possible.EURUSD is vastly overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 74.017, MACD = 0.011, ADX = 27.363) having completed a +15.64% rise from the February 3rd 2025 Low. That was a technical HL bottom on the 3 year Channel Up and the same amount of price increase was seen on its first bullish wave. When it peaked it made three successive highs over a 6 month period (Feb-July 2023) before starting a long term bearish sentiment creation. For now, we can expect at least a 1D MA50 test on the short-term (TP = 1.15000). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Short
by InvestingScope
EURUSD – A Potentially Busy Day Ahead For TradersThis morning, EURUSD recorded a near 4 year high at 1.1807, the beneficiary of improving risk sentiment, uncertainty about the ECB’s next interest rate move, and concerns about what President Trump’s tax cut bill, that is progressing through the Senate currently, could mean for the sustainability of the US debt burden moving forward. Now, with the FX quarter end rebalancing completed yesterday, it is possible to look forward to the upcoming scheduled events for today that could influence where EURUSD moves next. First up, at 1000 BST this morning, traders receive the latest preliminary inflation (HICP) update for the Eurozone. The outcome of this release could provide further insight into whether the current market expectation for one more ECB rate cut in 2025 is possible, or if they may be on hold for the foreseeable future. Next up, starting at 1430 BST is a panel discussion attended by ECB President Lagarde, Fed Chairman Powell, BoE Governor Bailey and BoJ Governor Ueda at the ECB’s Central Bank Forum in Portugal. The topic, “adapting to change: macroeconomic shifts and policy responses”. The comments of these central bank heads on inflation, interest rates, tariffs and economic growth could be important for the direction of all the major G7 FX pairs. Then, at 1500 BST the ISM Manufacturing PMI survey is due for release. While US manufacturing activity is still expected to languish in contraction territory, below 50, traders will be focused on whether there has been any improvement in the headline print, and what the prices paid component could indicate for the direction of US inflation across the remainder of 2025. These events, when taken with real time updates from President Trump and members of this administration on his tax bill, trade deals and flexibility of the July 9th tariff deadline, sets today up as a potentially volatile period for EURUSD trading. Technical Update: Assessing the Recent Trend From a technical perspective, a positive pattern of higher highs and higher lows remains in the EURUSD price and as the chart below shows, Tuesday has seen another new recovery high posted at 1.1807. While much will continue to depend on market sentiment and price trends, it might be argued that the posting of this new price high for the current upside move, suggests a further phase of strength is still possible. However, what are the levels traders may now be watching to gauge where the next directional price risks might lay over coming sessions? Potential Support Levels: Since posting the June 19th session low at 1.1446, EURUSD has rallied by over 3.00% (1.1446 to 1.1807) and while this doesn’t mean price weakness is necessarily on the cards, traders might become concerned a price correction is due after such a strong advance. As the chart above shows, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest price strength, currently stands at 1.1668. This can mark a potential first support focus, after the recent move higher. Closing breaks under 1.1668, while not a guarantee of further price declines, may then lead to a deeper phase of weakness towards 1.1583, which is equal to the 61.8% retracement level. Potential Resistance Levels: As a result of latest strength, EURUSD has traded to levels last seen in mid-September 2021 and to gauge the next potential resistance levels, we switch to the longer term weekly chart shown below. If further price strength still emerges from current levels, traders may now be focused on 1.1909, the August 2021 failure high, as the next possible resistance level. The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
by Pepperstone
EURUSD| - Inducement Fueling Bullish Intent📌 Pair: EURUSD 📈 Bias: Bullish 🕰 HTF View (4H): Clear bullish intent shown with a break above major external structure (higher high). Inducement remains intact—expecting that draw to price. Strong bullish momentum signals smart money positioning for more upside. 🧭 MTF Clarity (2H → 30M): 30M structure refined and leaning bullish, but using 2H for confirmation. Waiting on liquidity sweep into the OB zone for entry precision. 🎯 Entry Criteria: LTF CHoCH → Liquidity Sweep → OB Mitigation (Execution in that exact order for maximum confirmation) 🎯 Target: Structure highs above 🧠 Mindset Note: Let the inducement play out—don’t rush it. This is where patience and clarity separate a sniper from a scalper. One clean entry > 10 reactive trades. Bless Trading!
Long
by Juicemannn
EUR/USD – Consolidation and Uptrend Channel Analysis!Price is holding inside a well-defined uptrend channel on the 1-hour timeframe. The trend remains bullish as long as price respects the channel structure. Currently, we see consolidation near the upper zone, showing market indecision. A breakout above consolidation will confirm bullish continuation. If this happens, buyers can look for momentum entries to the upside. However, if price breaks down below channel support and consolidates under it, the bias will shift to bearish and open the way for deeper corrections. Target in case of breakdown: 1.1400 – strong support and liquidity area. Trading Plan: Stay bullish while price is inside the channel. Only turn bearish on a clean break and retest below the channel. Avoid trading inside the middle of consolidation to reduce false signals. Patience and confirmation are essential before taking any positions.
Short
by JosProfessionalTrader