EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W18 D29 Y25
EURUSD SHORT FORECAST Q2 W18 D29 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today!
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Weekly order block rejection
✅Daily order block rejection
✅Intraday 15' order block
✅Tokyo ranges to be filled
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
EURUSD trade ideas
Could the Fiber reverse from here?The price is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1427
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.1560
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 1.1281
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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EURUSD INTRADAY rend continuation supported at 1.1277Trend Overview: The EUR/USD currency pair remains in a bullish trend, supported by a prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action suggests a sideways consolidation (coiling price action) possibly triggering a corrective pullback towards a newly formed support zone, previously a resistance level.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support Levels:
1.1240 – Previous resistance turned support, key level for potential bounce.
1.1144 – Secondary support level if 1.1240 fails.
1.1000 and 1.0890 – Stronger support in case of extended retracement.
Resistance Levels:
1.1475 – Initial resistance level on the upside.
1.1595 – Next target if bullish momentum continues.
1.1700 and 1.1830 – Long-term resistance and key breakout point.
Market Sentiment & Price Action: The recent corrective pullback aligns with normal market fluctuations within an uptrend. A bullish bounce from the 1.1240 support level could trigger an upside move, targeting the 1.1475 resistance level and potentially extending towards 1.1595 and 1.1700 – 1.1830 over a longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 1.1240 support, accompanied by a daily close below this level, would weaken the bullish outlook. This could lead to further downside pressure, potentially testing the 1.1144 level, with an extended decline towards 1.1000 and 1.0890 if selling pressure intensifies.
Conclusion: The EUR/USD pair remains in a bullish structure as long as the 1.1240 support holds. A successful bounce from this level would reinforce the uptrend, targeting higher resistance zones. However, a decisive break below 1.1240 and a daily close under this level could shift sentiment bearish, leading to further downside retracement.
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EURUSD DETAILED ANALYSISEURUSD has been gaining bullish momentum so far this year. We’ve seen how price has been moving on a rising channel from the daily perspective. Price is just 1.6% away from the higher timeframe downtrend resistance trendline . If we get a break above the higher resistance trendline , we’re likely to see more of the bullish growth for the rest of the second quarter of the year. If we see price fall below the local daily rising channel and also below the pullback support, a downward trend continues!
EURUSD 4h Head and Shoulders 🔍 Technical Analysis – EUR/USD (4H)
🧠 Pattern Identified: Head & Shoulders
This is a classic reversal pattern, often indicating that the prevailing uptrend is weakening and a potential bearish move may follow.
Left Shoulder: Formed around April 17–18.
Head: Sharp push up and reversal around April 22.
Right Shoulder: Forming now, showing a lower high compared to the head.
Neckline: Currently being tested around the 1.1335–1.1340 zone.
🧭 Key Levels
Zone Level Significance
Resistance 1.1450 High before the drop (Head)
Neckline Support 1.1335 Crucial breakout level
Next Support 1.1260 March highs; potential bounce
Target (H&S projection) 1.1200 - 1.1220 If neckline breaks with volume
EUR/USD SELLERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
Bearish trend on EUR/USD, defined by the red colour of the last week candle combined with the fact the pair is overbought based on the BB upper band proximity, makes me expect a bearish rebound from the resistance line above and a retest of the local target below at 1.103.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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What Is a PD Array in ICT, and How Can You Use It in Trading?What Is a PD Array in ICT, and How Can You Use It in Trading?
The PD array, or Premium and Discount array, is a key concept within the Inner Circle Trader methodology, designed to help traders map market movements and identify high-probability zones. By breaking down price behaviour into premium and discount levels, along with tools like order blocks and fair value gaps, the PD array provides a structured framework for analysis. This article explores its components, applications, and how traders can integrate it into their strategies.
What Is a PD Array?
An ICT PD array, short for Premium and Discount array, is a concept developed by Michael J. Huddleston, the mind behind the Inner Circle Trader (ICT) methodology. At its core, the PD array is a framework used to organise price levels and zones on a chart where significant institutional activity is likely to occur. These zones highlight areas of interest such as potential support or resistance, points where liquidity resides, or regions that might attract price movement.
The PD array divides the market into two primary zones: premium and discount. These zones help traders gauge whether the price is above or below its equilibrium, often calculated using the 50% level of a significant price range. In practical terms, prices in the premium zone are typically considered attractive in a downtrend and unattractive in an uptrend, while prices in the discount zone are more attractive in an uptrend and less attractive in a downtrend.
Beyond premium and discount zones, PD arrays include specific elements like order blocks, which are regions linked to institutional buying or selling, and fair value gaps (FVGs), which are imbalances or gaps in price that the market often seeks to revisit. Together, these elements create a structured roadmap for traders to interpret price behaviour.
Unlike a static indicator, an ICT PD array is dynamic and requires traders to interpret price movements in real time, considering the broader market context. It’s not a quick fix but a methodical approach to understanding how price delivers across different levels, offering a clearer view of where high-probability reactions could occur. The PD array is often combined with other ICT concepts, like market structure shifts or SMT divergence, to sharpen analysis and focus on precise market opportunities.
Premium and Discount Zones of a PD Array
The foundation of a PD array starts with defining the premium and discount zones. This is typically done by identifying a significant price swing—either a low to a high or vice versa—and applying a Fibonacci retracement. The 50% level of this range serves as the equilibrium point, dividing the chart into two zones:
- Premium zone: Price levels above 50%, often considered less attractive in an uptrend and more attractive in a downtrend.
- Discount zone: Price levels below 50%, seen as more attractive in an uptrend and less attractive in a downtrend.
This equilibrium acts as a baseline, helping traders assess whether the price is likely to reverse, consolidate, or continue based on its position relative to the 50% mark.
Tools Within the PD Array
The PD array doesn’t rely on a fixed set of tools. Instead, it offers a collection of components traders can use to refine their analysis. While the choice of tools can vary, they’re often ranked in a loose hierarchy, known as a PD array matrix, based on their importance within the ICT methodology. Let’s break down how this structure works.
Order Blocks
Order blocks are areas where institutional traders placed large buy or sell orders, often leading to significant price moves. On a chart, they appear as the last bullish or bearish candle before a sharp reversal. Order blocks are highly prioritised within the PD array because they indicate zones of potential support or resistance.
Fair Value Gaps (FVGs)
FVGs are gaps between price levels that form when the market moves too quickly to fill orders evenly. These imbalances create "unfinished business" in the market, and price often revisits these areas to restore balance. They are especially useful for spotting potential reversals or continuation points.
Breaker Blocks
Breaker blocks form when order blocks fail. When supply or demand zones are unable to hold and the market structure shifts, breaker blocks emerge, highlighting key levels to monitor.
Mitigation Blocks
Mitigation blocks are related to breaker blocks but form after a market structure shift, where the price makes a lower high (in an uptrend) or a higher low (in a downtrend). They function the same as breaker blocks, but the key difference is in the failure of a new high/low before the trend reverses.
Liquidity Voids
Liquidity voids are areas on the chart where there’s little to no trading activity, often following sharp price movements. These large FVGs are often revisited by price as the market seeks to rebalance liquidity, making them significant for identifying future price movements.
Rejection Blocks
ICT rejection blocks are similar in concept to order blocks but consist of the wicks present on a given timeframe where an order block could be drawn. They are essentially a refined version of an order block where the price may reverse.
Old Lows or Highs
Old lows or highs represent liquidity pools where traders place stop orders. These levels are magnets for the price, as the market often seeks to trigger these stops before reversing. Identifying these points helps traders anticipate where the price might gravitate.
Using ICT PD Arrays for Trading
Let’s consider how to use the PD array of the ICT methodology.
Evaluating Trend Structure
Before anything else, traders typically assess the broader trend by analysing highs and lows. The goal is to identify the current structure and wait for the market to form a new significant high or low that aligns with the existing trend. For instance, in an uptrend, a trader might wait for a new higher high to form, followed by a retracement.
Once the new high or low is established, traders often draw a Fibonacci retracement tool between the previous low and the recent swing high (or vice versa for a downtrend). This creates a clear division of the price range into premium and discount zones, providing the foundation of the PD array.
Retracement into the PD Array
As the price retraces within the range, traders watch for it to reach the premium zone in a downtrend or the discount zone in an uptrend. This positioning is essential—it signals that the price has reached an area where the risk-reward profile may be more favourable.
Finding Specific Setups
Within these zones, traders use the tools of the PD array to refine their approach. For instance, an FVG might act as a key level, particularly if it sits just ahead of an order block. Alternatively, a breaker block might signal a potential reversal if the price aligns with the broader trend structure. By combining these elements, traders can narrow their focus to setups that align with both the PD array and the underlying market conditions.
The Limitations of ICT PD Arrays
While ICT PD arrays offer a structured framework for analysing price behaviour, they’re not without their challenges. Traders relying on this methodology should be aware of its limitations to avoid potential pitfalls. Here are some key considerations:
- Subjectivity in Marking Zones: Identifying premium and discount zones, as well as order blocks or other components, can vary between traders. This subjectivity means that no two analyses are identical, which may lead to inconsistent outcomes.
- Experience Required: Effectively using PD arrays demands a solid understanding of market structure, liquidity concepts, and the ICT methodology. It can feel overwhelming for beginners without adequate practice.
- Higher Timeframe Dependence: While PD arrays are valuable, they’re more popular on higher timeframes. Traders focusing solely on smaller timeframes might encounter more false signals.
- Dynamic Nature: Markets evolve quickly, and PD arrays require traders to adapt in real time. This dynamic quality can be a challenge for those who struggle with decision-making under pressure.
- Overfitting Risk: With so many tools available within the ICT framework, it’s easy to overanalyse or misinterpret signals, leading to analysis paralysis.
The Bottom Line
ICT PD arrays offer traders a structured framework to analyse market movements and identify key price zones, helping them refine their strategies. By combining these arrays with other tools and techniques, traders can gain deeper insights into institutional activity.
FAQ
What Is the ICT PD Array?
The ICT PD array meaning refers to a Premium and Discount array, a trading concept developed within the Inner Circle Trader (ICT) methodology. It organises price levels and zones into premium and discount areas, helping traders analyse where the price is likely to react and reverse and place entry and exit points. The framework includes tools like order blocks, fair value gaps, and liquidity voids to identify potential areas of institutional interest.
What Is a Premium Array in Forex?
A premium array in forex refers to the portion of a price range above its equilibrium level, typically the 50% mark of a significant swing high and low. Traders consider this zone less attractive for buying, as it’s closer to overvaluation, and often watch for potential selling opportunities.
What Is a Discount Array in Forex?
A discount array is the zone below the equilibrium level of a price range. It represents a potentially more favourable area for potential buying opportunities, as prices are considered undervalued relative to the swing high and low.
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EUR/USD Analysis – Difficulty at Resistance and Possible PullbacThe EUR/USD pair is currently trading at a strong resistance level. This area stands out both because it has historically been a zone of intensified selling pressure and because indicators like the RSI are giving overbought signals.
On the other hand, the DXY being at a support area and the potential for an upward response suggests that the dollar may strengthen against the euro. If this scenario occurs, we are likely to see a downward correction in the EUR/USD pair.
EURUSD Under Pressure! SELL!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the EURUSD next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 1.1407
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 1.1365
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURUSDEUR/USD Monetary Policy Decisions from the Central Banks (April 2025)
The ECB lowered its three key interest rates by 25 basis points.
Deposit Facility Rate: Reduced to 2.25%
Main Refinancing Operations Rate: Reduced to 2.40%
Marginal Lending Facility Rate: Reduced to 2.65%
These changes take effect from April 23, 2025.
Rationale:
The ECB cited a well-progressing disinflation process, with both headline and core inflation declining and expected to settle near the 2% medium-term target. Wage growth is moderating, and the euro area economy has shown resilience. However, the outlook for growth has deteriorated due to rising global trade tensions, which are increasing uncertainty and tightening financial conditions. The ECB emphasized a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach and is not pre-committing to a specific rate path.
Economic Context:
Growth outlook is weakening, with ECB President Christine Lagarde warning that US tariffs could halve Eurozone growth this year from an already modest 0.9% forecast.
Inflation risks remain, especially from potential retaliatory tariffs and increased government spending.
U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed)
The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.5%, continuing the pause in its rate-cut cycle that began in January 2025.
Outlook:
The Fed anticipates two rate cuts (totaling 50 basis points) later in 2025, but is cautious due to persistent inflationary pressures and economic uncertainty, particularly from elevated tariffs and trade policy shifts.
Policymakers see inflation risks as tilted to the upside but have downgraded growth forecasts for 2025 (now 1.7%, down from 2.1%).
The Fed remains data-dependent, with future decisions hinging on inflation and labor market developments.
Implications for EUR/USD
The ECB’s rate cut narrows the interest rate differential with the Fed, which can support EUR/USD upside if the Fed remains on hold or cuts rates later than the ECB.
Both central banks are emphasizing a data-dependent approach, responding to evolving inflation and growth dynamics
Trade tensions and tariff policies are a major source of uncertainty for both economies and could influence further monetary policy actions.
Summary Table
ECB Cut by 25 bps (Apr 2025) Deposit: 2.25% Disinflation on track, growth risks from trade tensions, data-dependent
Fed Held steady (Mar 2025) Fed Funds: 4.25%–4.5% Inflation risks, slower growth, 2 cuts expected in 2025, data-dependent
In summary:
The ECB has just cut rates to support growth as inflation moderates, while the Fed is holding steady but signaling possible cuts later in 2025. Both central banks are highly data-dependent, with trade tensions and inflation risks shaping their outlooks. This evolving policy divergence is a key driver for EUR/USD in the months ahead
Cycle Low Confirmed – Strong Upside Move Starting!Here's what I notice:
- Price has **bounced very strongly** from the cycle low.
- You timed it very nicely — the upswing started just as the cycle predicted a bottom.
- If the cycle timing continues, this move could extend for several candles into the next cycle top.
**Summary of the New Setup:**
✔ Cycle low confirmed with bullish breakout
✔ Strong impulsive move off the bottom
✔ Favourable timing for long setups
✔ Potential for multiple days of upside if cycle rhythm holds
This new chart you uploaded looks like it's using cycle analysis — those green semi-circles suggest you're mapping time-based cycles!
Awesome! 😎 Here's the TradingView post draft for your **Cycle Timing** idea:
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# ⏳ Cycle Low Confirmed – Strong Upside Move Starting!
**Summary:**
Perfect timing off the projected cycle low! Price action has confirmed the cycle theory with a strong bullish breakout. Based on the rhythm of previous cycles, we could see sustained upside momentum into the next cycle peak.
**Setup Details:**
- **Entry:** Current levels (~1.13647) after confirmation of cycle low.
- **Stop-loss:** Below the recent low (~1.09000) to give the trade room to breathe.
- **Target:** Look for strength toward 1.20+ depending on price behavior near mid-cycle.
- **Risk/Reward:** Excellent — trend in favor, supported by cycle timing.
**Technical Factors:**
✅ Cycle Low perfectly aligned with time-based projection
✅ Strong bullish candle closing above recent consolidation
✅ Momentum shift supports continuation higher
✅ Cycle suggests multiple sessions of upside potential
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EURUSD: Local Bearish Bias! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 1.13761 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
EURUSD time for correctionMonthly
On the monthly timeframe, we came to the Premium zone and captured Monthly Fractal High, where previously there was predominance from the sell side.
Weekly
Price has formed a Weekly FVG, indicating strong dominance from the buy side. However, it is important to understand WHERE this has led us ? The current quotes are interesting for sellers. Hence, we should assume that the price may receive a counter offer from the sell side. It is logical to assume potential points A and B in this context.
Daily
Price has formed primary signs of change in the price delivery state:
- Bullish PD Array disrespecting
- BISI forming
- CISD forming
All this indicates a shift of initiative to the selling side, so it is logical to expect a continuation of the downward movement after interaction with the marked PD Array.
Also, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the price is within the Inside Bar for the 3rd day already. This means that recently the price has been held within the same values, which indicates a balance of power between buyers and sellers at the current quotes. In such a situation, all we have to do is to find the optimal area to continue the downward price formation.
EURUSD FORECASTWhen I look this pair I really love the way that higher timeframe is looking like! Price has already shown the mass psychology and a strong retrace candle which gives a message of a strong reversal to the downside.
In the timeframe of entry I'm looking more of a structure development and insurance play. Let's watch this with a close eye and see what the market is going to give us!
Wishing you a good trading day and God bless!