EURUSD Gearing Up for Next Leg Up – DXY Weakens After PPI MissToday, key U.S. economic indexes were released, providing fresh insights into inflationary pressures and the state of the labor market:
Core PPI m/m:
Actual: 0.1% | Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: -0.4%
Lower than expected – suggests weaker underlying producer inflation.
PPI m/m:
Actual: 0.1% | Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: -0.5%
Slight miss – overall inflation at the producer level remains soft.
Unemployment Claims:
Actual: 248K | Forecast: 242K | Previous: 247K
Slightly higher than forecast – signaling some cooling in the labor market.
Market Outlook :
These data releases point toward cooling inflation and softness in job growth, which may strengthen the dovish narrative around the Fed’s next move.
DXY Index ( TVC:DXY ) is under pressure, and EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) is showing signs of bullish momentum .
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Now let's take a look at the EURUSD chart on the 1-hour time frame .
EURUSD is trading near the Heavy Resistance zone($1.182-$1.160) and Monthly Resistance(2) .
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , EURUSD appears to be completing microwave 4 . Microwave 4 could be completed at one of the Fibonacci levels .
I expect EURUSD to attack the Heavy Resistance zone($1.182-$1.160) at least once more after completing microwave 4 and could even rise to the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) .
Note: If EURUSD touches $1.1446 , we can expect more dump.
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Euro/U.S. Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 1-hour time frame.
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EURUSD trade ideas
EURUSD: at key resistance: Will price rebound to 11300?Quick recap on EURUSD, seriously déjà vu of my previous analysis on EURUSD - once again we see the price coming towards the same resistance level. This is a level where it has struggled to break through and reversed nicely to the downside as expected. For me it's definitely one to monitor, especially for anyone considering short trades.
If we start seeing signs that the price is getting rejected here: like long wicks, bearish candles, or buyers starting to lose momentum, I think we could see a move down toward the 1.11300 level. I am targeting a slight bounce like before, nothing major. But if price cleanly breaks out, that would rule out the bearish outlook and suggest even further upside will follow.
This area is pretty important and could give us a better idea of where price is headed next.
Just sharing my thoughts on support and resistance, this isn’t financial advice. Always confirm your setups and manage your risk properly.
EUR/USD Market Sentiment @ 1.1546 Market Sentiment
Forex market sentiment can be measured using various tools and indicators. One of the most popular methods of measuring sentiment is using sentiment indicators. These indicators provide insights into market sentiment , such as the percentage of traders who are bullish or bearish on a particular currency.
Forex Sentiment
One of the main advantages of using forex sentiment analysis is that it can help traders make more informed trading decisions. By understanding the overall sentiment of the market, traders can better anticipate price movements, identify potential trading opportunities, and manage risk more effectively.
What is Forex Sentiment?
Forex Sentiment is the feeling or perception of market participants towards a currency pair. It is an essential aspect of forex trading, as it plays a crucial role in determining the direction of the market. Forex sentiment is driven by a wide range of factors, including economic data, geopolitical events, news events, and market trends.
While there are various methods of measuring sentiment, traders should use sentiment analysis in conjunction with other technical and fundamental analysis tools to make informed trading decisions.
EURUSD shortIn my previous analysis in Friday, June 20, I had short pending order on this pair.
Due to US attack on Iran base's over the weekend, I closed it and put another pending short position visible here.
SL: 1.1582
Entry: 1.1550
TP: 1.1357
I expect higher volatility today, but don't expect bigger jump to the upside, so my risk:reward is bigger now.
I expect the price to clean Friday high's and go down again.
EUR/USD analysis and pending orderTwo days ago, there was a FED meeting, where it was stated that the benchmark interest rate will be kept at 4.25-4.50% level.
What is important is what they told - the expectations - economicp rojections are lower, and inflation is higher.
Maybe they’ll decrease rates in future?
Right now, it’s not so important. It’s summer already, and by the old “Sell in May, and go aways” mentality, I don’t expect some huge impact on the market.
I know… Iran, Israel, Trump, maybe even Putin? Anybody can do some stupit stuff and everything can go to Hell.
And it’s Friday, not very smart time to open trades, so I’m putting pending order.
I decided for EUR/USD.
Timeframe is 4h.
On my chart I can see clear uptrend in the last couple of weeks, especially in the last 3 months.
Also, I see lower highs.
Upward trend is breached… Where it could stop?
Overall, I don’t expect the pair will come near parity, even though ECB lowered rates before FED did.
But some “selloff”, probably.
I used good old Fibonacci, draw it, and the price could potentialy drop to 50% level or even ideal 61…8%-78.6% zone.
Pending entry: 1.15577
TP: 1.12645
SL: 1.1671
If it activates today, I’ll leave it over the weekend.
EURUSD Sell SetupBy: MJTrading:
EUR/USD has rallied into a significant resistance zone, approaching the upper boundary of a rising wedge/channel pattern. The price is now hovering around a key confluence zone, where trendline resistance and horizontal supply intersect ( 1.16300 —1.16500 )
There are to possible scenarios:
1) If the price Rejects directly from previous High
🔹 Position 1: Sell Stop @ 1.15915
🛑 Stop Loss: 1.6375
🎯 Take Profit: 1.5454
R/R:1
isk Level: Medium
2) If price tries to reach the boundary of the wedge or make a Fake breakout:
🔹🔹 Position 2: Sell Limit @ 1.16300
🛑 Stop Loss: 1.6930
🎯 Take Profit: 1.5000
R/R:2
Risk Level: Low
📌 This zone offers a high-probability reversal setup
📉 Why it Matters:
Price action shows signs of exhaustion after a parabolic move.
EMA structure is stretched, hinting at a potential pullback.
Lets ZOOM OUT:
Daily Chart:
ZOOM IN:
Stay disciplined, let price come to you, and manage risk.
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#EURUSD #ForexSetup #TradingStrategy #TechnicalAnalysis #ChartPattern #FXTrading #ShortTrade #MJTrading #BearishReversal #PriceAction #SwingTrade #ForexIdeas #Trendlines #BreakoutOrFakeout #RiskReward
Overextended Rally into Resistance ZoneEUR/USD has pushed into the upper boundary of the Keltner Channel on the 4H timeframe, indicating a potential exhaustion of bullish momentum. Price is showing signs of overextension with Heikin Ashi candles losing strength near a key resistance zone.
📉 Short Position Setup:
Entry: 1.17220 (near upper Keltner resistance)
SL: 1.17581 (above recent highs and volatility buffer)
TP: 1.15220 (targeting mid-channel and previous structure support)
🔻 Bearish Confluence:
Price rejecting upper Keltner band
Potential for mean reversion after strong rally
Weakening bullish momentum in candle structure
Confirmation with further bearish price action or divergence signals would strengthen the case for downside continuation.
Eurusd Fall ContinuesThe EURUSD extended its recent uptrend yesterday, briefly pushing to the highest level since October 2021, but the move stalled just above 1.16297, the June high and the high for the year. Today’s price action again approached that high but was unable to break above, turning the market lower and back toward a familiar swing area that has defined recent resistance.
EUR/USD Biases (Long, Short, and Today’s View)EUR/USD Trading Biases: Navigating Bullish Momentum and Key Resistance Zones
This will be a concise market analysis essay (around 600–700 words) suitable for a financial audience, such as forex traders or analysts. Let me begin:
EUR/USD Trading Biases: Navigating Bullish Momentum and Key Resistance Zones
The EUR/USD pair, one of the most actively traded currency pairs in the forex market, has exhibited strong bullish momentum in recent sessions. As of June 26, 2025, the euro’s ascent against the dollar has brought it to a critical juncture, testing significant technical and psychological resistance levels. Traders are now weighing the potential for continued upside against growing signals of exhaustion and looming fundamental catalysts.
Bullish Outlook: A Technically Supported Advance
From a technical perspective, the bullish case for EUR/USD remains compelling. The pair is entrenched in a sustained uptrend, marked by successive breakouts above prior resistance levels and validated by daily and weekly closes above 1.1600. The current price action is converging on a crucial supply zone located between 1.1700 and 1.1900—an area historically known for triggering reversals but also pivotal in confirming trend continuation if broken convincingly.
Technical indicators further bolster the bullish narrative. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), while approaching overbought territory, is still supportive of higher prices. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) displays a widening bullish histogram, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) confirms trend strength. Near-term resistance lies between 1.1680 and 1.1730, with potential for an extension to 1.1800 should the pair breach this upper band.
On the fundamental front, improved German Ifo business sentiment data has injected optimism into the eurozone outlook. Additionally, easing geopolitical tensions and a broader risk-on sentiment in global markets have undercut the dollar's safe-haven appeal. Speculation over potential Federal Reserve rate cuts further dampens dollar strength, creating tailwinds for EUR/USD.
Bearish Considerations: Resistance and Reversal Risks
Despite the encouraging trend, caution is warranted. The area between 1.1700 and 1.1900 represents a major weekly order block (OB) resistance—territory where several past rallies have lost steam. Oscillators such as the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and RSI are showing signs of overextension, and the market is now vigilant for reversal patterns or signs of exhaustion.
Fundamentally, while the recent Ifo data is encouraging, it remains below the key threshold of 100, reflecting lingering skepticism about the eurozone's full recovery. Moreover, upcoming U.S. economic releases, particularly GDP figures and jobless claims, could act as potential catalysts for a dollar rebound. Hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve officials could also tilt sentiment, especially if it dampens expectations of rate cuts.
If EUR/USD fails to hold above the 1.1700–1.1730 resistance zone, a corrective move toward 1.1530–1.1500 becomes plausible. Deeper pullbacks could extend toward 1.1470 and 1.1390, especially if risk sentiment reverses or economic data surprises in favor of the dollar.
Today’s View: Bullish with a Note of Caution
For today, June 26, the prevailing bias remains bullish, yet increasingly cautious. The pair is testing the lower end of the 1.1700 OB zone. A decisive break and hold above this level would likely unleash further upside toward 1.1730 and 1.1800. However, overbought conditions and proximity to a known resistance zone suggest that traders should remain alert to potential rejection.
Intraday strategies favor buying on dips above 1.1600–1.1635, with stops placed just below 1.1600 and targets set at 1.1700–1.1730. Conversely, short positions should only be considered if there is a clear rejection from the 1.1700–1.1730 area, with downside targets at 1.1530–1.1500 and stops above 1.1800.
Conclusion
The EUR/USD is currently at a pivotal inflection point. While the bullish trend is intact and supported by both technical and fundamental factors, the proximity to a major resistance zone introduces a layer of complexity. Traders must remain agile—ready to ride a breakout higher if confirmed, but equally prepared to pivot if the pair falters and signals a reversal. In markets like these, timing and confirmation are everything.
#AN009: US attacks IRAN, what will happen?
On June 22, 2025, the United States launched air strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites (Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan), using bunker-buster bombs and Tomahawk missiles, some dropped by B-2 stealth bombers
President Trump declared that the facilities were “completely and totally obliterated”
📈 Tensions and geopolitical context
Tehran responded with missiles aimed at Israel and promised “tough responses”
The UN and key figures such as Guterres and Medvedev have defined the action as a dangerous escalation with the risk of a new conflict on a regional scale.
Israel supported the attacks, while Iran convened the UN Security Council to condemn the aggression.
💥 Market Impact
⚡ Energy Sector
Oil prices jump towards $90–100 per barrel on fears of flows from Iran and potential closures of the Strait of Hormuz.
Investors reacted with a move towards safe haven assets such as the Dollar, Gold and Treasuries.
📊 Equities and sensitive sectors
Starts on an uncertain tone: S&P500 and Nasdaq futures “volatile open”, with penalties on travel and tech, and increases on energy and defense.
Gulf markets open slightly higher (Saudi, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait), thanks to the attenuation of initial sell-offs.
🌍 Global economic impact
Weakening predictions from the World Bank, IMF and OECD predict an economic slowdown due to energy shocks and increased global tensions.
📌 Currency and Forex Scenario
USD has gained ground as a safe haven asset, benefiting from Safety flows.
Commodity-linked pairs, such as AUD/USD, NZD/USD and CAD/USD, will be pressured by rallying oil.
Potential increase in volatility on EUR/USD and GBP/USD: they rotate towards safe haven and US/China political risk.
📣 What to watch out for
Daily and H4 candlesticks in EUR/USD and GBP/USD to understand if support holds under geopolitical stress.
Volatility indicators (VIX | MOVE) are rising, it is useful to calibrate the size and prefer structured trades.
In the coming days it will be essential to monitor:
Reuters/Bloomberg for updates on possible sanctions or public retaliation.
ASEAN and Asia for regional reactions on energy supplies.
Central banks on inflation expectations due to high oil.
💡 Conclusions – Market and Forex Impact
This military action represents a classic geopolitical shock: rising dollar and defensive assets, pressure on oil and high volatility on stock markets and exchange rates. Unlike Israeli attacks, the direct entry of the US increases the degree of macro uncertainty.
For Forex traders:
USD Index: potential rebound within the bullish trend channel
Pairs with commodities: activate strategies on breakout key levels (e.g. AUD/USD, CAD/USD)
Anti-USD FX (EUR, GBP, JPY): under pressure and to be used in range rebound.
For the equity sector:
Rotation towards defensive sectors, defense, energy.
Possible entry into government bonds as a high inflation/political hedge.
Overall, the impact is clear: increased geopolitical risk → high volatility → shift towards USD/safe haven asset → penalization of sensitive assets.
DeGRAM | EURUSD reached the supply area📊 Technical Analysis
● Price formed an intraday rising wedge right inside the 1.1615-1.1635 supply band; the wedge has broken lower and the last two candles closed back under the long-term trendline retest.
● Bearish follow-through is favoured while price stays below 1.1604; first magnet is the confluence of former breakout base and inner channel support at 1.1569, with 1.1547 (mid-June pivot) the next objective.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Fresh Euro-area PMIs dipped below consensus while U.S. consumer-confidence beat, widening the short-rate gap and reviving USD bids.
✨ Summary
Sell rallies ≤1.1600; targets 1.1569 → 1.1547. Bias invalid if 30-min candle closes above 1.1635.
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Fed speak - Not broken, not cutting “Don’t fix what isn’t broken” seems to be the Fed’s current stance. Two Fed officials made that clear over the last 24 hours.
Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr warned that tariffs could fuel inflation by lifting short-term expectations, triggering second-round effects, and making inflation more persistent.
New York Fed President John Williams echoed that view, noting that tariff-driven inflation is “likely to get stronger in the months ahead.” He also called policy “well positioned” and said the Fed needs more data before making any move.
EUR/USD has formed a rising wedge pattern on the daily chart—typically a bearish structure that warns of a potential reversal. Price action has narrowed, building two clear tops. The downside target from the wedge could potentially be 1.1066 initially, and possibly down to 1.0732 if bearish momentum accelerates.
Uptrend on EURUSDEURUSD has moved higher and is now testing the previous high.
This confirms the analysis and opens up additional buying opportunities.
Reduce the risk on all active buy positions as the analysis plays out.
Additional entries can be considered after a pullback or a breakout followed by a retest.
The next target is 1,1706!
EURUSD LONG FORECAST Q2 W26 D23 Y25EURUSD LONG FORECAST Q2 W26 D23 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today!
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Daily order block
✅15' order block
✅Intraday breaks of structure
✅4H Order block
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Bearish reversal?EUR/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1555
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.1608
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
Take profit: 1.1483
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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PO3 (Manipulation spike into Premium → Distribution)Price swept liquidity above the recent high → tapped into FVG at a premium
BOS and CHOCH are already present earlier → confirming the reversal structure
Expecting a bearish reaction from this imbalance zone
📉 EUR/USD Short Setup – June 27
🔹 Entry: 1.17380
🔹 SL: 1.17510
🔹 TP1: 1.17080 | TP2: 1.16800
🔻 PO3 bearish reaction from FVG at Premium zone + prior liquidity sweep
pls let me know your opinion am open to let from anyone and everyone, pls
EUR/USD Keeps Climbing – Dollar on the Back FootEUR/USD is still pushing higher today, trading around 1.171 and showing no signs of slowing down. The pair’s strength is backed by both technical momentum and the current market backdrop.
What’s fueling the move? Simple: the US dollar is under pressure again. Fresh concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence — especially with talks around replacing Powell — are shaking investor confidence. That’s giving the euro the upper hand and helping this pair hover near its highest level in four years.
Looks like the bulls aren’t done yet. You riding this trend?
EURUSD BuyExternal structure is bullish and the continuation structure failed to make the high. Price came lower and during Asia session it took out the low(inducement) and mitigated an Order Block. Price taking out the internal low that failed to create the higher high is the fuel to push upward. we need to wait and see how Frankfurt and London open play out. It is Friday so I'm not going to be surprised if it does some weird moves.
Profit TakingYesterday, EURUSD continued its bullish move and reached 1,1747.
Currently, we focus more on reducing risk and taking profits rather than entering new positions.
We’re approaching the final days of the quarter, and next week brings key economic events.
New entries will be considered only if a favorable risk-reward setup presents itself.
The next resistance remains at 1,1778!