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EURUSD trade ideas

Positive Economic Data and ECB's Interest Rate OutlookThe strength of the Euro (EUR) is supported by positive economic data from the Eurozone, reducing the likelihood of the European Central Bank (ECB) making significant interest rate cuts in December. Eurostat reported that the region's economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter, prompting traders to adjust their expectations regarding interest rate cuts in the upcoming meeting. Additionally, inflation pressure increased by 2% in October, further reinforcing the likelihood that the ECB will maintain interest rates. EUR/USD is fluctuating around the resistance level of 1.0896 during the European trading session on Monday. With support at 1.0778, the upward momentum of this currency pair is solidified, and it is likely to test the resistance level of 1.0896 again. Moreover, this upward trend may continue and break through that resistance, especially as the EMA 34 and 89 have reversed to an uptrend. What do you think about the outlook for this currency pair? Let me know!
by Alisa_Rokosz
Euro falls as Trump's chances of victory increaseLooking at the trend in the 1-hour time frame, EUR/USD has broken the support area of ​​the first ascending channel to the bottom and now it is below the moving averages of the ALIIGATOR indicator, there is a possibility of further price declines. In general, the scenario is reinforced that EUR/USD can decline to the support of the bottom of the second ascending channel in the range of $1.0799, provided that the resistance range of 1.0864-1.0859 is maintained.
Short
by arongroups
EUR/USD Short Setup at Key Resistance LevelMy Short Idea Based on Downtrend Continuation Short Entry: 1.0850 Stop Loss: 1.0900 Take Profit: 1.0800 The pair is in a downtrend, forming lower highs (LH) & lower lows (LL) and this retracement to 1.0850 resistance provides a solid short opportunity, The RSI is nearing overbought levels adding confirmation to the bearish setup, The stop loss is safely above resistance to avoid false breakouts and take profit is at 1.0800, where strong support lies. Good Luck!
Short
by kashifone1
How the U.S. Election Could Impact USD and EUR/USD Trading"As the U.S. presidential election approaches, it’s time to consider how it might impact our trading strategies, particularly with the U.S. dollar and EUR/USD. Political shifts bring market volatility, so let’s break down how each outcome could influence the dollar and the EUR/USD pair. Election Outcomes and Market Impact 1. If Democrats Win: A Democratic victory could weaken the dollar, as policies may lead to lower inflation and reduced real interest rates. This scenario might push the EUR/USD pair higher, with potential targets around 1.1300–1.1850. For traders, this could mean a favorable environment to consider EUR/USD gains. 2. If Republicans Win: On the other hand, a Republican win might initially strengthen the dollar, thanks to expected trade policies and rising interest rates. However, this strength could be short-lived. Long-term factors may introduce volatility, potentially giving the euro a chance to regain ground against the dollar. Key Levels to Watch in EUR/USD From a technical standpoint, keep an eye on resistance levels from 1.1275 to 1.1750 for potential bullish moves, while support around 1.1000 and a critical level at 1.0900 could indicate a downturn. Combining these levels with election news can help you make informed trade adjustments. How to Trade Before, During, and After the Election Leading up to the election, watch for narrowing polls, as this could introduce uncertainty and increased volatility. During the election itself, expect the market to react strongly—prepare for a Trump win to potentially strengthen the dollar and a Harris victory to have the opposite effe
by habib75rajabi
EURUSD_106 2024.11.05 14:43:04 Trading Signal SELLFrankPro Signal for EURUSD_106 Type: Screen Signal: SELL TP: 1.08443 SL: 1.09171 Entry Price: 1.0908 Analysis for EURUSD Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST= Strong Down LT= Strong Up Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Down LT=Up ST=Down LT=Up ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(0) Based on the provided analytical news and forecasts, I will analyze the data and provide a prediction for the EUR/USD pair's price movement in both the short-term and long-term. **Short-term analysis (next few days):** * The EUR/USD pair is expected to continue its decline and test the support area near 1.0835. * A breakout below 1.0735 would cancel the growth option and indicate a continuation of the fall to around 1.0565. * The pair is showing sideways momentum, forming an upward channel on the 4-hour chart, but a break above 1.0922 could signal a move higher. * Significant FX option expiries at 1.0900 (1.7 billion EUR) could influence price action around this level. **Prediction for short-term:** The price is expected to go **down** in the short-term, with a potential test of the support area near 1.0835. However, if the pair breaks above 1.0922, it could signal a move higher. **Long-term analysis (next few weeks/months):** * The EUR/USD pair is expected to continue its growth towards the area above 1.1045 after a rebound from the upper border of the broken channel. * Technical indicators suggest a corrective advance is possible, but the risk remains skewed to the downside. * The European Central Bank (ECB) policy announcements and economic indicators, such as French Industrial Production and Spanish unemployment, could influence the pair's price movement. **Prediction for long-term:** The price is expected to go **up** in the long-term, with a potential growth towards the area above 1.1045. However, the risk remains skewed to the downside, and the pair's price movement will depend on the ECB policy announcements and economic indicators. **Stability:** The pair's price movement is expected to be **volatile** in the short-term due to the ongoing U.S. elections and significant FX option expiries. However, in the long-term, the pair's price movement is expected to be more **stable**, with a potential growth towards the area above 1.1045. Result: ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(1) Based on the provided analysis, here are my conclusions for the EUR/USD pair: **Short-term analysis (next few days):** * The pair is expected to experience sideways momentum due to the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election and the upcoming ECB policy announcements. * Technical indicators suggest a possibility of a corrective advance, but the overall trend remains bearish. * Support levels at 1.0875, 1.0840, and 1.0805 are likely to be tested, with a potential rebound towards the resistance level of 1.0910. * Market sentiment is cautious, which may lead to increased volatility. **Expected short-term price movement:** Down (testing support levels) or sideways (due to uncertainty and caution) **Long-term analysis (next few weeks/months):** * The forecast suggests an attempt to continue the decline in the pair, followed by a potential upward price rebound and continued growth towards the area above 1.1045. * A breakout above the resistance level of 1.0975 could confirm growth for the EUR/USD pair. * Fundamental factors, such as the U.S. presidential election outcome and economic indicators from the U.S. and Europe, will influence the pair's long-term direction. **Expected long-term price movement:** Up (potential growth towards 1.1045 and above) Please note that these conclusions are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new information becomes available. Result: ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(2) **Short-term Analysis (Next few days to 1 week)** Based on the current market conditions and technical analysis, I expect the EUR/USD price to remain relatively stable, with a slight bearish bias. The pair is currently trading above the $1.0872 support level, but the technical indicators such as the RSI are neutral, indicating a lack of strong momentum. The upcoming U.S. election results and key economic data releases, including the U.S. Trade Balance and ISM Services PMI, are likely to influence the pair's movement. If the support at $1.0872 fails, the pair may decline toward $1.0850 or even $1.0830. **Probability of price movement:** * Down: 55% * Up: 30% * Same: 15% **Long-term Analysis (Next few weeks to 1 month)** In the long term, I expect the EUR/USD price to rebound and continue its growth toward the area above $1.1045. The European economic data, although mixed, showed some positive signs, particularly from Germany. The revised PMI data for the Eurozone also indicated some positive momentum. The technical analysis suggests that a break above $1.0922 could signal a move higher, with a potential buy zone around $1.0872-1.0865. If the pair can close above $1.0975, it would indicate a bullish trend. **Probability of price movement:** * Up: 60% * Down: 25% * Same: 15% Overall, while the short-term outlook is cautious and slightly bearish, the long-term outlook is more bullish, with the potential for the pair to rebound and continue its growth. Result: ST=Down LT=Up
Short
by frankiepro
EURUSD - AnalysisMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels. In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level lower. But to take more statistically more probable trades we should wait for some time of lower timeframe confirmation. For me the best way to confirm higher timeframe context is structure. We can notice the break of market structure (sign of weakness) on key liquidity level, so there is a higher probability to see price lower at least on opposite level (marked lower). Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
Short
by Maks_Klimenko
EURUSD 7 Dimension Sell Trade Idea Top-Down View (H4 Analysis): The H4 timeframe shows that the price has recently formed a Change of Character (CHoCH) and appears to be making a retracement. Despite this pullback, it hasn’t mitigated the higher-timeframe Points of Interest (POI), particularly the unmitigated Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG). Observing H1, we see considerable volatility and uncertainty, possibly indicating attempts to shake out weak-handed traders before a deeper corrective move toward the H1 internal extreme POI for mitigation. 😇 7 Dimension Analysis 🟢Time Frame: H4 🟢Swing Structure: Bullish with CHoCH: The swing structure is bullish on the H4, with a recent CHoCH indicating a potential shift. An inducement has been observed, and price has just entered the discounted zone, which aligns with the 61% Fibonacci retracement level. POI and Liquidity Levels: The area of interest includes the 61% & 88% Fibonacci level, liquidity sweeps, and support at the demand zone. Waiting for price to reach this zone and observing its reaction will be critical. Pattern: 🟢 Chart Patterns: Double Bottom: Forming as a potential reversal pattern at the discounted zone. 🟢 Candle Patterns: Long Wick & Momentum Candles: Recent candles show long wicks and momentum on the downside, indicating that bears are still in control of the current session, albeit with limited momentum strength for long-term sustainability. Volume: Moderate volume suggests that while sellers are currently dominant, the bearish momentum may not hold for an extended period, reinforcing the expectation of a retracement. Momentum (RSI): 🟢 Range Shift: Momentum has shifted from bearish to sideways with multiple bullish divergences, suggesting a loss of bearish strength and a potential for reversal or retracement. Volatility (Bollinger Bands): 🟢 Middle Band Breach: The price has dropped below the middle band, indicating a slight bearish bias. Expansion Cool-Down: Following a period of expansion, price appears to be consolidating and "cooling down" before the next directional move. 🟢Strength (ROC and Consolidation): Consolidation Phase: ROC reflects consolidation, supporting the idea that the bearish momentum may pause or weaken, aligning with the expectation of a retracement or sideways movement. 🟢Rating: ⭐⭐⭐ Probability: 65% This setup has a moderate confidence level for a short-term sell entry, considering the confluence of factors on both the H4 and refined lower time frames. 🟢Trade Setup: Entry Details: Entry Time Frame: 15-Minute (15M) Entry TF Structure: Bearish (for counter-trend entry in a corrective move) Point of Interest (POI): Extreme Fair Value Gap (FVG) Trade Execution: 💡 Decision: Sell Limit 🚀 Entry: 1.8747 ✋ Stop Loss: 1.0888 🎯 Take Profit: 1.07927 😊 Risk to Reward Ratio: 6.94 RR 🕛 Expected Duration: 1 Day SUMMARY: This H4-based top-down analysis with entry refinement on the 15M timeframe provides a short-term sell opportunity within a bullish higher timeframe structure. Price action, volume, and momentum indicators suggest a potential bearish pullback toward the 15M POI, aligning with the 61% Fibonacci level and significant liquidity areas. The setup targets a short-term retracement with a high reward-to-risk ratio, with the expectation that price may retrace to mitigate lower timeframe liquidity levels before resuming the bullish trend.
Short
by Optimum369
EURUSD 3/11/24This week, our bias on the Euro has shifted from short to long. This change is based on observing a shift in the higher time frame structure, as institutions appear to be showing interest in buying. Whether this move will be short-term or long-term remains to be seen. We’ll watch the price action in the first sessions of the week to get a clearer idea. Please note, this analysis follows the same principles and bias approach as always. Currently, there are no unmitigated demand areas on the 4-hour chart, and only a short-term supply area has formed. The area of demand we’ve highlighted is present only on the 1-hour chart, making it more of a smaller time frame reference than a higher one. We’ve marked key liquidity levels, which will serve as our reference points for potential upward movement this week. If the price interacts with the 1-hour demand area, we’ll aim for the high at the top of the current range. While I’m ultimately looking for a longer-term upward move, a pullback beforehand is possible. Stick to your plan and manage your risk.
by rosshayes
Bigger correction up for EUHi traders, Last week EU made a bigger (complex) correction up. I think the correction hasn't finished until it reaches the 38.2 fib retracement. So for next week we could see some more upside into the Daily FVG above and from there a drop lower. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for price come into the Daily FVG above and trade (short term) shorts after the finish of a correction up on a lower timeframe. If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a like and respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! Eduwave
Short
by EduwaveTrading
EURUSD_106 2024.11.04 11:20:06 Trading Signal SELLFrankPro Signal for EURUSD_106 Type: Screen Signal: SELL TP: 1.08451 SL: 1.09107 Entry Price: 1.09025 Analysis for EURUSD Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST= Strong Down LT= Probably Up Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Down LT=Up ST=Down LT=Up ST=Down LT=Down Analysis Method(0) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the EUR/USD pair's expected price movement: **Short-term (next few days):** * The pair is expected to attempt a decline and test the support area near 1.0715. * The correction phase is ongoing, and any upward movement is unlikely to be strong without supportive news for the euro. * The US presidential election on November 5 may introduce volatility, but the US dollar is expected to remain strong. **Expected price movement:** Down (testing support near 1.0715) **Long-term (medium-term outlook):** * The EUR/USD pair is expected to continue its medium-term decline. * The moving averages indicate a bullish trend, but this is subject to the ongoing correction and market volatility. * A potential growth target above 1.1185 is anticipated after the upward rebound. **Expected price movement:** Up (after the initial decline, with a potential growth target above 1.1185) Please note that these assessments are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as market conditions evolve. Result: ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(1) Based on the provided data, here is my analysis of the EUR/USD pair's expected price movement: **Short-term (November 4-8, 2024)** * Expected price movement: Down, followed by a potential upward rebound * Reasoning: The pair is currently in a correction phase after a month-long decline, and analysts expect an attempt to develop a decline, testing the support area near 1.0715. However, a potential upward rebound and growth towards the area below 1.1185 is also expected. * Technical analysis supports this view, as the pair has broken through the area between the signal lines downwards, suggesting pressure from buyers of the European currency. **Long-term (remainder of 2024)** * Expected price movement: Up, with moderate growth and minor corrections * Reasoning: Many analysts, including LongForecast, expect the EUR/USD exchange rate to appreciate throughout the remainder of 2024, reaching fresh yearly highs. While some forecasts, like those from WalletInvestor, suggest a slight decline, the overall sentiment is bullish. * The European Central Bank's potential interest rate cuts and the Federal Reserve's rate decisions are influencing factors, but the market has already priced in the entire cycle of monetary policy easing in the U.S. **Note**: The US presidential election on November 5 is expected to introduce volatility, which may impact the pair's movement in the short term. Result: ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(2) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the EUR/USD pair's expected price movement: **Short-term (next few days):** * The pair is in a correction phase after a month-long decline, and there are grounds for the euro to rise. * However, the correction is unlikely to be strong without continuous supportive news for the euro. * The key level to watch is 1.0845-1.0851; if the pair remains below this area, it could indicate a continuation of the decline. * Given the upcoming U.S. presidential election, significant volatility is expected in the market. **Expected short-term movement:** Neutral to slightly bearish (price may stay the same or go down) **Long-term (next few months to a year):** * Analysts expect the EUR/USD pair to potentially continue its medium-term decline. * The market has already priced in the expected monetary policy easing in the U.S., which may support the dollar's strength. * Forecasts suggest that the EUR/USD could trade at 1.07 by the end of this quarter and at 1.05 in 12 months. **Expected long-term movement:** Bearish (price expected to go down) Please note that these assessments are based on the provided analysis and may not reflect the actual market movement. The foreign exchange market is highly volatile and subject to various factors that can influence price movements. Result: ST=Down LT=Down
Short
by orbborisson