EURUSD Good morning traders. Welcome to yet another trading week.
I've posted my fundamentals perspective earlier. You can go take a look.
Here's the technical lowdown:
- Price has tapped into the H1 FVG created after the market open and gyrations, and taken out the PDL - H4 candle closed with a very bullish candle - LTF still prints bearish internal intention and we are currently still within an internal operating range and have yet to confirm any market structure shift to the upside - With the LTF bearish internal intention still active, there's still a high probability that price will move further down despite tapping in the H1 FVG and 61.8% fib already, in order to grab more sell side liquidity
I'll be watching closely the edge of the LTF range and the extreme discount zone of this range. If I see a clear shift in structure in each of these areas, especially on the Daily demand OB below, I'll long this market and align this with the fundamentals. For the impatient trader in you, you can short this market to the areas I've talked about for that full mitigation, but bear in mind it is a risky countertrend move.
EURUSD Too much frills and noise in the news outlets on whatever has happened and the mayhem in the markets.
Here's my personal rendition on why EU will still go up:
Macroeconomics equation:
GDP = Consumption (C) + Investment (I) + Government Spending (G) + Exports (X) - Imports (IM)
Clearly with Doge cuts to government spending, together with the tariffs which reducings imports to the US, GDP for US is set to fall, which induces the Federal reserve to cut interest rates to support the economy. This creates an expectation of a depreciating USD, which we are currently seeing in the market.