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EUR/USD_TODTOM - SWAP EUR/USD

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EURUSDTDTM trade ideas

Dollar dives as Fed rate cut bets grow | FX ResearchThe US dollar faced renewed pressure at the start of July, with the dollar index dropping to its lowest since February of 2022, marking a 10.8% decline in the first half of 2025—the worst since 1973. Driven by geopolitical tensions and Trump trade policies, President Trump's ongoing criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Powell and the Fed's high interest rates, combined with Goldman Sachs's revised forecast of three rate cuts starting in September, signal a dovish shift that could further weaken the dollar. Eurodollar surged to its highest since September of 2021, though ECB Vice President De Guindos noted potential concerns if it exceeds 1.20, while the EU considers accepting a US 10% tariff in exchange for lower rates on key sectors. Emerging market ETFs saw $1.22 billion in inflows last week, reflecting de-dollarization trends amid easing Middle East tensions and Fed rate cut bets. Meanwhile, China’s Caixin PMI rose and Japan’s Q2 Tankan data beat expectations, supporting risk-on sentiment. Today’s focus is on US JOLTS job openings and manufacturing ISM data, alongside an ECB forum panel with key central bank leaders, which could influence market expectations. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
EURUSD - ANALYSIS👀 Observation: Hello friends! I hope you're doing well. I’d like to share my view on EUR-USD with you. Looking at the EUR-USD chart, I see two potential scenarios ahead: 🔹 Scenario 1 – Bearish: If EUR-USD breaks below 1.16836 on the 15-minute time frame, I expect a downward move toward the 1.16319 to 1.15850 area. 🔹 Scenario 2 – Bullish then Bearish: If the price rises from the current level, I expect an initial move up toward 1.17937, followed by a decline back toward the 1.16319 to 1.15850 zone. 💡 Key Levels to Watch: 📌 Support: 1.16836 / 1.16319 / 1.15850 📌 Resistance: 1.17937 💬 What are your thoughts on EUR-USD? Let me know in the comments below. Trade safe
Short
by PouyanTradeFX
1
EU| - Bullish Structure Intact | Watching for SSL Sweep and RunPair: EURUSD Bias: Bullish Timeframes: 4H, 2H, LTFs • 4H structure is clean and bullish — momentum’s been steady, and the market looks ready to ride higher going into next week. • 2H gives clarity — I’m watching for a sweep of SSL into OB to set the stage for LTF confirmation. • Entry process remains the same: wait for CHoCH, followed by sweep inside the OB zone. 🔹 Entry: After CHoCH + sweep inside OB (LTF process repeated) 🔹 Entry Zone: After confirmation within OB 🔹 Target: Structure highs — letting price unfold with the trend Mindset: Patience pays the most. Wait for the market to come to you, not the other way around. Bless Trading!
Long
by Juicemannn
Wedge Top Short ScalpIt looks like EURUSD is forming a Wedge Top extended from the 20 EMA, presenting a Short Scalp opportunity targeting the move back to the EMA in the next few days. Depending on how the current daily candle closes, this could be a good trade, so I'll be watching it today. The bull trend is strong on this one, so we should expect a quick resolution on this short trade, otherwise, we have to cut it off quickly. I don't wan to be against this trend. After the move back to the EMA, we will potentially have a Breakout Pullback opportunity to trade With Trend. So there's no need to rush.
Short
by lestercrest
TiqGpt setup for todayMARKET NARRATIVE: The EUR/USD currency pair across multiple timeframes shows a consistent bullish momentum, indicating strong buying pressure. Starting from the 1D chart down to the 1m chart, there is a clear upward trend with higher highs and higher lows, suggesting institutional accumulation and a lack of significant sell-side pressure. The 1D and 4H charts display a series of green candles with minimal wicks, indicating that the market is in a strong bullish phase with little retracement. The 1H and lower timeframes show some consolidation, but the overall structure remains bullish, suggesting that institutions are still in control of the price action. INSTITUTIONAL THESIS: Institutions appear to be in an accumulation phase, consistently pushing the price higher. The lack of deep pullbacks and the formation of higher lows across timeframes suggest that there is ongoing demand at higher price levels. This is indicative of a liquidity grab above the current highs, where institutions may be targeting stop losses placed by retail traders who are positioned for a reversal. LEARNING POINT: The consistent bullish candles with minimal retracement across higher timeframes (1D, 4H) highlight a strong institutional buying phase, potentially leading to a liquidity sweep above recent highs. SIGNAL: WAIT SYMBOL: EUR/USD ENTRY PRICE: $1.18140 STOP LOSS: $1.17950 (below the recent minor consolidation on the 1H chart) TARGET PRICE: $1.18500 (just below the next psychological round number and potential liquidity pool) CONDITION: Buy limit order at $1.18140 after a minor retracement confirms continued buying interest. RATIONALE: Calculated risk/reward ratio of 1:1.9 (Risk=$0.00, Reward=$0.00) does not meet minimum 2:1 requirement. Waiting for better institutional setup with improved risk parameters. STRATEGIES USED: Institutional Accumulation, Liquidity Sweep Targeting URGENCY: MEDIUM TIMEFRAME: Short-term CONFIDENCE SCORE: 85% (based on the consistency of the bullish structure and lack of significant bearish counter-signals) RISK/REWARD RATIO: Risk=$0.00, Reward=$0.00, Ratio=1:1.9 (Below 2:1 minimum) Risk = $1.18140 - $1.17950 = $0.00190 Reward = $1.18500 - $1.18140 = $0.00360 Ratio = $0.00360 / $0.00190 = 1:1.89 Given that the risk/reward ratio is slightly below the required 2:1, the recommendation is to WAIT for a better entry point that could provide a higher reward relative to the risk or adjust the target price if market conditions change to improve the potential reward.
Long
by Mistermoriarty
#AN013: USD and AUD under pressure, Euro advances 1. India: New strategy on FX volatility The Indian Respondents' Bank (RBI) is allowing more volatility on the USD/INR exchange rate, prompting many companies to hedge with forward contracts. This is the highest level of coverage since 2020. We thank in advance our Official Broker Partner PEPPERSTONE who supported us in writing this article. FX Impact: Potential weakening of the rupee in the short term, but increased stability in the medium-long term. Volatility on USD/INR, EUR/INR, JPY/INR ? opportunities for carry trades and short-term shorts if the dollar strengthens. 2. Australia hit by extreme storms Severe storms hit New South Wales, Queensland and Victoria: 100 km/h winds, torrential rains and blackouts on over 30,000 homes. Australian economic sentiment pressured ? AUD weak. Opportunities on AUD/USD, AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD from a short perspective. Monitor agricultural and insurance developments ? risk of extended downside. 3. Iran: Fordow nuclear site severely damaged US strike hits Iranian nuclear site. In response, Iran has threatened to mine the Strait of Hormuz, a critical point for global oil transport. Geopolitical volatility expected to rise. Increased flows to safe haven currencies: JPY, CHF and USD. Also impacting CAD and AUD due to oil ? risk of short-term upside but corrections if stalemate persists. 4. US $3.3 trillion fiscal package under discussion Senate considering mega stimulus plan. This fuels fears of new debt ? dollar falls to 4-year low against euro. EUR/USD long strengthened (break above 1.17 already underway). GBP/USD and NZD/USD potentially in push. Risk of FED rate cut? increased volatility on dollar and bonds. Strategic Conclusion Recommended operations: long on EUR/USD, short on AUD/USD, long on USD/INR (only with confirmation). Watch out for the next 48 hours: possible spike on CHF, JPY and CAD. Institutional timing: probable fund inflows on EUR and USD in case of confirmed breakouts; stay ready but avoid front-running. Stay updated for other news.
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP