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EUR/USD_TODTOM - SWAP EUR/USD

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EURUSD:ECB lifts its cards, neutral rate at 2%.By Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst The European Central Bank has stopped playing the guessing game and has officially revealed its “best-kept secret” : the neutral interest rate for the euro zone stands at around 2%, with a range of between 1.75% and 2.25%. This figure, which has been the subject of speculation for years, now marks the way forward for monetary policy in an environment where investors, and especially EURUSD traders, are seeking clarity amid volatility. For those who follow the markets closely, this announcement is key. The neutral rate is that level at which monetary policy exerts neither expansionary nor restrictive effect on the economy. At the current 2.75% after the last cut, the ECB statement makes it clear that, if economic conditions hold, the process of cuts will close in the summer at around 2%. This would imply three additional 25 basis point cuts over the next few meetings, which in our view is a firm step towards normalization. Philip Lane, the ECB's chief economist, has previously stated that the debate on the neutral rate is becoming less relevant as rates approach a level at which they no longer hold back growth. In an environment of low inflation - with the target achievable in the summer - the central bank focuses on what is really necessary to sustain growth without overheating the economy. Luis de Guindos, for his part, has reiterated that although the concept of the neutral rate is very useful from an analytical point of view, in practice the ECB relies on other metrics, such as the bank survey, to set the price of money. Christine Lagarde, always at the center of ECB communication, helped dispel uncertainty by raising expectations of cuts, pointing out that the current path of monetary policy clearly points to a 2% floor by the summer. This clarity is especially valuable for traders, as it allows us to adjust our investment strategies in the EURUSD and fixed income markets. This data is a beacon of stability for the Euro. An environment in which rates are expected to converge to 2% suggests a potential revaluation of the Euro against the dollar, as investors move towards assets that offer a margin of stability. The projection of a more robust EURUSD is in line with the expectation that, from summer onwards, the ECB will stop cutting and stabilize at that neutral level, which could reshape the dynamics of capital flows in the eurozone. On the other hand, from a macro point of view, this decision reinforces the idea that the ECB is confident in the European economy's ability to achieve a balance between growth and inflation. Traders should note that in a scenario of rate stability at 2%, the euro is likely to benefit from a more predictable environment, which in turn would positively affect cross-border trade and investment. Technical Analysis Looking at the chart, the EURUSD has been in a downtrend that diverted it to a low of $1.01766 on January 13, currently facing a range that positions it between this low and a ceiling of $1.05327. Currently trading at $1.03048, the POC zone is located in the area of $1.05 per euro. Looking at the pressure of the last few days, the RSI is currently oversold at 45.23%. The 3 smoothed averages reinforce the idea of a price sideways movement in a price zone that coincides with that of January 15 and can be seen on the chart. The current pressure seems to have been contained and has generated a strong resistance in the $1.03 area. Therefore, the data is consistent with a possible bullish bounce in the previously mentioned direction. Employing Fibbonacci, the price is below the 38.20% of the last strong retracement that pushed the price to lows, so there is plenty of room left until reaching the 61.80% ($1.04094) which is slightly above the checkpoint area. In summary, the ECB's announcement not only clears up doubts, but also sets a clear framework for the near future: the rate cutting cycle is expected to conclude in the summer, leaving rates at a neutral 2% level. For the EURUSD and for markets in general, this is a sign of stability that will undoubtedly influence investment decisions and trading strategies in the coming months. With the clarity offered today by the ECB, it is time to adjust positions and prepare strategies for a horizon of greater certainty. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
Long
by ActivTrades
GpPa Model / EUR/USD Dynamic Limit Order Long EntryGpPa Analysis / Entry Justification under the GpPa Model *The Analysis is the same as the conservative and dynamic entry* The main entry is conservative, so, the analysis remains beside this part: A long entry can be considered at the strong minimum, but I'll not go too far with the SL or TP. It can be used as a hedge if you're holding a position that performs well as the US Dollar does (like Magnificent 7 or other shorts in x/USD currency). Beside that, I'll consider this position the riskier of all. 1. Liquidity a. Liquidity Related to Structure The price’s liquidity is distributed within a relatively narrow range, marked by several highs and lows and a false manipulative bias (indicated as internal liquidity in a lighter color). This liquidity distribution suggests a long-term and mid-term bearish trend (notably from the M3 and M1 timeframes backward) that has weakened in the short term, evolving into a chaotic structure. b. Liquidity Related to Directionality The diagonal liquidity—responsible for driving the price to manipulate highs and lows—is more pronounced at the highs. However, the directional bias appears to favor mitigating the lows. c. Decision Regarding Liquidity Recent price action indicates the development of a retracement. This retracement could either continue the bearish trend or lead to a range-bound structure due to an exhausted bearish trend. 2. Trajectory / Direction (Structure) a. Coefficient of Trajectory, Direction, and Validation (-41.20%; -58.80%) 19.10% These coefficients confirm the signals derived from the liquidity analysis. While the price shows a clear long-term and mid-term bearish trend, the opposing validation factor may indicate an exhaustion of the retracement—or even of the trend itself—thus reinforcing the possibility of a range-bound market. 3. Entries a. Conservative Entry The VWAP is placed alongside an additional FRVP at the major fractal preceding the M1 structure to define a conservative entry. Once positioned, this setup confirms the bearish character and the established range, allowing the identification of a high-probability entry at the manipulated high. This entry is validated by: - Long-term volume - A high-probability VWAP zone for shorts within the range - A long-term order block (M1) i. Coefficients of the Conservative Entry - Fractal Quality Coefficient: 50.00% - Entry Quality Coefficient: -19.82% - Entry Probability: -50.00% - Stop Loss Probability: -100.00% - Take Profit Probability: -50.00% The entry is highly likely to be mitigated over the long term, with the conservative analysis expiring on March 25, 2025. Although the quality is decent, it is not optimal since the evaluation was based solely on the VWAP. The Stop Loss is set at 2 ATR from the last manipulated high (calculated from the median of the data) and is strongly protected by volume, two highs, two order blocks, and the VWAP level. This setup reflects an extremely optimistic scenario for the euro, which does not fully align with recent fundamental news—suggesting that a significant move would be necessary to breach this level. The Take Profit should be seen not as a final objective but rather as a target for partial profit-taking and for moving the stop to breakeven once the objective is reached. 4. Other Comments - The price is currently in a zone that attracts little interest from swing traders. As of February 10, 2025, the price is in a well-developed retracement, which discourages taking shorts lightly. - A long trade might be considered at the manipulated minimum below the structure; however, given the euro’s recent fundamentals and the prevailing long-term and mid-term bearish trend, such a trade should only be executed with carefully adjusted Stop Loss and Take Profit levels. Do you like my analysis? Follow me on social media: thewayofrichie Let's trade, Richie
Long
by ricardo_ndns
Which way will the Eur/USD pair go?EUR/USD Market Update: 🔆The US dollar continued to strengthen amid ongoing developments in President Trump’s tariff policies. While the widely debated 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports have been postponed, the 10% tariffs on Chinese goods remain unchanged. The lack of clarity and uncertainty from the White House initially led investors to unwind their long positions in the dollar early last week. 🔆However, the greenback regained momentum over the weekend after President Trump announced plans to introduce a new 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports into the US, in addition to the current tariffs on these metals. 🔆Investors are now closely watching Fed Chair Powell’s speech today. In the past, the Fed has maintained a hawkish stance amid concerns over Trump’s trade and fiscal policies. Meanwhile, the ECB recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points in an effort to address slowing economic growth and persistent inflation above its 2% target. Personal Insight: 🔆The euro faces significant headwinds. A robust US dollar, diverging monetary policies between the Fed and the ECB, and internal challenges within the eurozone—such as Germany’s economic slowdown—could all put downward pressure on the single currency. While short-term rebounds are possible, the euro’s long-term trajectory remains uncertain, especially as global trade tensions, including those involving the EU, continue to unfold. Technical Outlook: 🔆Analysis based on the RSI (4H) indicator, Fibonacci confluence trendlines, and key resistance-support levels. Plan: 🔆 Price Zone Setup: 👉Buy EUR/USD 1.0330 -1.0345 ❌SL: 1.0400 | ✅TP: 1.0300 – 1.026 – 1.021
Short
by FM-ForexMastermind
1
EUR/UISD - Strong Trade Setup (XCI Model)Hi all, If you have been following you would have seen I have been winning a lot of trades recently.... well, I have a new entry model Ive been playing with that works on any time frame in any market. Im naming it XCI. I wont be posting with how it works in here but I will be sharing my trade setups I use it in. This is one of them Liquidity Sweep taken on a Long Term Bearish Market. Market jump left Imbalance to fill giving us a strong level to sell from. We have our OTE Zone Marked out with the discount zone we want to see price move into before selling off Good Luck to the traders that follow
Short
by jamesibartram
1