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EUR/USD_TODTOM - SWAP EUR/USD

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EURUSD Trade Analysis 2 Macro LondonEURUSD Trade Analysis 2 Macro London Asia creates equal lows in a discount. Price comes up to the 50% and creates session equal highs. For 2 hours spools in a tight range. By 12:30 it aggressively rallies past the 50 to equal highs and into a noted FVG. By 1:30 it peaks and breaks down in a premium. Creates a FVG and 2 candle spikes into it and on previous days MOG. (All seen on a LTF) Model review Liquidity from previous session is taken Price is in a session premium Price rebalanced a FVG Created a FVG to go it to at 2 Price is breaking down in a macro with a identified session bias DXY was in a discount providing confidence it would seek out the 50 level-which it did. 3 sell side targets for scaling Current range bias in Asia was on the 50, and price went above tricking traders we are going long so they can deal their shorts. This is classic ICT 2022 and other blended ideas. It does not get more perfect than this. The hesitation is not sticking to my parent bias which is bull. And yet I suspected this week we could see lower prices as price could gravitate to the current range 50 seeking liquidity. A nice 20 pips consistently is what Im working towards.
by LeanLena
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 19, 2025 EURUSDU.S. President Donald Trump said late Tuesday that he would likely impose tariffs on imports of cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals of about 25%, with an announcement to follow as early as 2 April. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said a peace deal could not yet be concluded. He postponed his visit to Saudi Arabia, scheduled for Wednesday, until 10 March to avoid giving ‘legitimacy’ to the US-Russia talks. This uncertainty could lift the US dollar and serve as a tailwind for the pair. Investors are awaiting the release of the minutes of the January FOMC meeting, which are due to be released later on Wednesday. This report could provide some clues as to how policymakers assess the risk of a global trade war. On the other side of the pond, the ZEW Eurozone Economic Sentiment Index came in at 24.2 in February versus 18.0 previously, missing expectations. Rising bets that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates three more times this year could put pressure on the Euro (EUR). Trade recommendation: SELL 1.0450, SL 1.0500, TP 1.0350
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EUR/USD at a Crossroads: Will Trade Tensions Push It Lower? EUR/USD has been struggling to maintain momentum above the 1.0500 mark, facing renewed selling pressure as macroeconomic and geopolitical factors influence sentiment. With the US Dollar regaining strength and concerns about European economic stagnation growing, the pair remains vulnerable to further downside. Technical Analysis: Resistance Levels: 1.0532 (January 27 high), 1.0629 (December peak), 1.0744 (200-day SMA). Support Levels: 1.0405 (55-day SMA), 1.0282 (February 10 low), 1.0209 (February 3 low), and 1.0176 (January 13 YTD low). Indicators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 55, indicating modest momentum, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) remains around 15, suggesting a weakening trend. Moving Averages: The 200-day SMA at 1.0744 serves as a key dynamic resistance, while the 55-day SMA at 1.0405 acts as interim support. Fundamental Analysis: Several key fundamental factors are exerting downward pressure on EUR/USD: Trade Policy Uncertainty: While US tariff tensions have temporarily eased, lingering trade disputes, including a 10% duty on Chinese imports and potential EU-targeted tariffs, keep investors cautious. Diverging Central Bank Policies: The Federal Reserve remains firm on keeping interest rates elevated, while the European Central Bank has begun rate cuts, signaling weaker economic confidence in the Eurozone. Economic Growth Divergence: The US economy continues to show resilience with robust labor markets and stable inflation, while the Eurozone faces stagnation and potential contraction, particularly in Germany. European Political Risks: Uncertainty in Germany and wider Eurozone economic struggles add to the Euro’s bearish outlook, making it less attractive compared to the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair is at a critical juncture, with key support levels in focus. Trade policies, central bank divergence, and economic growth disparities continue to drive market sentiment. This week is pivotal for the Eurozone, with key economic data releases culminating in Friday’s PMI figures, which could determine the pair’s next major move. Traders should remain cautious and closely monitor both technical and fundamental developments. Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Short
by AR33_
EURUSD Wave Analysis – 18 February 2025 - EURUSD reversed from the resistance zone - Likely to fall to support level 1.0400 EURUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance zone located between the resistance level 1.0500 (which has been reversing the price from December), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from November. The price will form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star Doji if the pair closes today near the current levels (strong sell signal for EURUSD). Given the clear daily downtrend, EURUSD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 1.0400.
Short
by FxProGlobal
EURUSD Outlook: Selling Opportunities AheadAs we delve into the current movements of the EURUSD, our analysis points towards a sell strategy. The entry price is set at 1.04828, with a take profit target at 1.04644333 and a stop loss at 1.05037333. Several factors support this bearish outlook. First, the strength of the U.S. dollar remains robust, shaped by expectations of interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. These developments often lead to a stronger dollar relative to the Euro, which is crucial for our selling strategy. Additionally, the recent price action suggests a downward trend, where the EURUSD has struggled to regain higher levels. This is reinforced by our EASY Trading AI strategy, which efficiently analyzes historical price data and market trends. The probability of a retracement in the current market conditions favors a move toward our take profit level. In conclusion, executing a sell position at 1.04828 aligns well with the prevailing market direction. As always, employing proper risk management with our specified stop loss will safeguard against unexpected market fluctuations. Happy trading!
Short
by ForexRobotEasy
EUR: No help from joint defence spendingThe ongoing discussion among EU leaders for a joint fund for defence spending is unlikely to drive much support for European currencies. That’s because the trigger is US President Donald Trump’s threat to scale back military support for NATO borders in Europe, which is hardly a net-positive development for local currencies. It is equally far-fetched to hope any such EU coordination on common spending will be replicated on the fiscal side to counter US protectionism. The eurozone’s structural unpreparedness to face the economic consequences of Trump’s tariffs continues to form the basis of our bearish EUR view. Market pricing on the European Central Bank is around -75bp for year-end, but we think four more cuts this year (to 1.75%) will be warranted. EUR/USD has obliterated the negative risk premium related to US tariffs. Remember in mid-January that amounted to 3% of undervaluation, according to our short-term fair value model. It seems that the Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations have offset the tariff threat in FX. However, the latter likely have more tangible implications for the ECB, the economy, and by extension the euro, and we therefore favour a lower EUR/USD. Our forecast for the end of this quarter is 1.02.
Short
by AccuTrade2000
EURUSD INTRADAY capped by resistance at 1.0500The EURUSD currency pair price action sentiment appears bearish, supported by the longer-term prevailing downtrend. The key trading level is at 1.0500. An oversold rally from the current levels and a bearish rejection from the 1.0500 level could target the downside support at 1.0425 followed by the 1.0374 and 1.0347 levels over the longer timeframe. Alternatively, a confirmed breakout above the 1.0500 resistance and a daily close above that level could trigger further rallies higher and a retest of the 1.0530 resistance level followed by 1.0576. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
Tuesday 18th Feb The Day AheadTuesday February 18 Data: US February Empire manufacturing index, NAHB housing market index, December total net TIC flows, UK December average weekly earnings, unemployment rate, January jobless claims change, Japan January trade balance, December core machine orders, Germany February Zew survey, Eurozone February Zew survey, Canada January CPI, existing home sales Central banks: Fed's Daly and Barr speak, ECB's Holzmann and Cipollone speak, BoE's Bailey speaks, RBA decision Earnings: Arista Networks, Medtronic, Cadence Design Systems, Occidental Petroleum, EQT, CoStar, Baidu, Capgemini This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
EUR/USD Bullish Trade Setup | Demand Zone Entry | 1:2 RRThis analysis highlights a bullish trade setup on EUR/USD, anticipating a pullback into a demand zone before a strong upward continuation. The trade is structured to capitalize on a retracement, aligning with market structure shifts. Entry Price: 1.04435 (Expected pullback zone) Take Profit (TP): 1.05135 (Key resistance level, potential target) Stop Loss (SL): 1.04085 (Below the demand zone for protection) Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:2 (Aiming for twice the risked amount) This setup leverages a retracement entry to maximize reward while minimizing risk, with a favorable risk-reward ratio and strong potential for bullish continuation.
Long
by Brainkiller
EURUSD analysis February 18Your trading strategy is based on a combination of strong support at 1.044 and signals from the EMA 34. This is a reasonable approach if the correction weakens and buying pressure increases. Some notes: Confirmation from price action: If the price reacts strongly to the 1.044 area (such as forming a reversal candlestick pattern or RSI divergence sign), the possibility of a bounce will be higher. Risk management: Stoploss 1.03900 is quite tight, ensuring low risk. However, if the sellers are strong and break through 1.044, you need to be ready to cut losses to avoid being caught in the downtrend. Flexible profit taking: TP1 (1.05100) is the nearest resistance zone, you can take partial profits here and move SL to breakeven to optimize profits if the price continues to 1.05700. You can also keep an eye on momentum indicators or economic news that may affect EUR/USD to make appropriate decisions. 🚀
by TVS-Trader