EURUSD 18 Feb 2025 W8 - Intraday - EU ZEW /US ManufacturingThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 18 Feb 2025 W8 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Some light economic news today along with the US Markets are back after long weekend.
EUR : ZEW Economic Sentiment
US : Empire State Manufacturing Index
The market still in the same sentiment detailed in my Weekly Analysis. Below a summary:
Short-Term Bias: Cautiously bullish for EUR/USD, driven by optimism over delayed tariffs, geopolitical progress, and hopes for softer inflation.
Key Risks:
A hot PCE report reviving Fed hawkishness.
Sudden tariff escalations or breakdowns in peace talks.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH.
🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move):
Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal)
Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal)
🔹With the recent moves, Supply is failing and Demand is holding solidifying the scenario that the Bullish 4H Swing continuation in play.
🔹Price swept Liq. above 30 Jan on 4H and Daily where I’d noted in the previous days analysis which can provide a decent pullback. (Bearish CHoCH is required to confirm the Sweep of Liquidity. Otherwise, it’s not enough and price will continue from the recent 4H Demand formed).
3️⃣
🔹Currently price is targeting the Liq. (Bearish CHoCK) above the recent demand which could provide Bullish continuation.
🔹Expectations is set to continue Bullish to target the Weak 4H Swing High to facilitate to the Daily and Weekly expected Bullish move.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Pullback Phase
2️⃣
🔹Bullish Swing structure continuing bullish aligning with the 4H Bullish Swing continuation phase.
🔹After the recent Swing BOS, we expect a pullback which is confirmed with the 15m Bearish iBOS today.
🔹With the Bearish iBOS we confirm the 15m pullback phase to Swing EQ (50%)/ Discount.
3️⃣
🔹As price on the 4H is currently targeting the Liq. (Bearish CHoCH), expectations today is to continue Bearish to facilitate the 15m Swing Pullback to Swing Discount and mitigate the 4H/15m Demand before continuing Bullish.
