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EUR/USD_TODTOM - SWAP EUR/USD

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EURUSDTDTM trade ideas

EURUSD Is Going Down! Sell! Please, check our technical outlook for EURUSD. Time Frame: 1h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The price is testing a key resistance 1.146. Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 1.143 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
2
EUR/USD tests 20 EMA, Lower band of channelEUR/USD ran into resistance at 1.1630 before easing back below 1.15. However, EUR/USD continues to trade in its rising channel, holding above its 20 and 50 SMA for now. The RSI is pointing lower, suggesting momentum is losing steam. Immediate support is at 1.1450, the 20 SMA, and the lower band of the rising channel is being tested following weak EZ PMIs and as the USD is the safe-haven of choice amid Middle East tensions. A break below here could open the door to 1.14 and 1.1280. Buyers will look to rise back above 1.15 and 1.1580 to bring 1.1630 and fresh multi-year highs into focus. FC
by FOREXcom
Bottom in for the dollar against the EuroI know many people are calling for the decline of the dollar and to invest in Europe, but the chart shows a different picture. The chart shows that the dollar has bottomed against the Euro and looks set to make a run at the highs. I think over the coming months/years, the dollar will go back above par against the Euro and will likely outperform the Euro for the coming years. The recent decline in the dollar was just to backtest support, and now that we have done that, I think the bottom is in. Breaking above the trend line should accelerate the bullish move.
Long
by benjihyam
7
Mechanical rangesMany traders will talk about things like "Smart Money Concepts" (SMC) and think they have found something new. The truth is, everything in trading stems back to Liquidity. There is no "Algo" nobody is out to get you specifically. The market is always right, where you position yourself is your own choice. I have written several posts on mechanical trading, recorded a number of streams. The more mechanical you can make the process, the less the emotions have a chance to kick your ass. Let me give you a very simple method of being able to identify the ranges. Ignore the timeframes as this will work on any of them, on most instruments. (I say most, as some behave differently due to how it attracts liquidity). Lets assume high end crypto such as Bitcoin (BTC) and of course Forex in the general sense, stocks, commodities etc. This is simple - only 2 rules. You start by zooming out and giving yourself a general feel for the trend. Let's say this looks to be an uptrend - we now need to understand the rules. An opposing candle can simply be defined by a different colour. If the trend is up (Green) and we see a red candle - then it's an opposing candle. The inverse is true, if we are down and the trend is Red. Then a Green candle would be opposing. This is only half of the story. The second rule is a pullback candle or even a sequence of candles. This simply means either the very same opposing candle that doesn't make a new high or low (depending on the trend up not making fresh highs or down not taking new lows). In this image, you can see we have in one candle both an opposing and pullback in one candle. This means we can now mark the high of the range. Working backwards to identify the swing range low. This easy method means I can draw a range exactly the same and mechanically every single time. Giving me a mechanical range. We could then get a lot more technical by looking for liquidity, 50% of the range or places such as supply or demand areas. But these are all for other posts. For now, getting a range on the higher timeframes means you can work down and down into a timeframe you are likely to want to trade on. These ranges will give clues to draws and runs of liquidity. This will also help identify changes in the character and fresh breaks of structure. Here's another post I posted on the mechanical structures and techniques. More in the next post. Have a great week! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principal trader has over 25 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Education
by Mayfair_Ventures
11
EURUSD | m15 supply playPrice broke structure with a clean CHoCH, then pulled back into a refined M15 supply zone. After rejecting the imbalance area, I executed a short aiming for the next liquidity pool below 1.14250. 🧩 Confluences: CHoCH + Lower High confirmation 🔁 Supply zone entry + FVG rejection 3-candle mitigation + bearish pressure returning 🎯 Target: 1.14050 ❌ SL above: 1.14830 “Structure breaks first, then price tells the story. Patience pays.” 🔥📉
Short
by sam_trades_smc
1
EURUSD Outlook at Risk of Changing in the Short and Medium TermEURUSD is feeling the bearish pressure as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate. These risks are driving traders toward safe havens, particularly the US dollar and US government debt, which still serve as the backbone of global reserves. The sharp decline in the dollar in recent months has added to this dynamic, but it’s not over yet for euro bulls in all the short, medium, and long term. However, the options market is flashing a rare bearish signal for EURUSD that traders should not ignore. Risk reversals across all maturities from 1 week to 1 year are falling. The 1-week risk reversal dropped sharply from 0.1075 to -1.10 since last Monday, one of the steepest moves seen recently, even though EURUSD itself has remained relatively flat. The breakout and successful retest of the long-term downtrend from 2008 to 2025 was a key turning point. As long as EURUSD stays above this trendline, dips are likely to be seen as buying opportunities by long-term investors. For the medium term, however, a bearish signal (for EURUSD) has emerged from the dollar index. The index broke out of the wedge formation (update the post above to see), retested it, and has since resumed its upward move, creating a strong bullish technical setup. Now, everything comes down to short-term support. EURUSD has been in an upward trend channel since the retest of the long-term trendline and had also formed a shorter-term trend within that channel. This shorter trendline has now broken and been retested. The next critical level is the 1.1425–1.1440 support zone. If this area fails to hold, it could shift both the short- and medium-term direction to the downside. Note: In this post, "short term" refers to up to one week, "medium term" to one to several weeks, and "long term" to several months to a few years.
Short
by ftdsystem
EUR/USDScenario 1: Bullish Reversal (If current FVG support holds) Bias: Short-term bullish, looking for a continuation of the bounce. Rationale: The price responded positively to an earlier low and is completing an FVG at this juncture. If this FVG is supported and the price breaks out above the latest bullish order block, then a reversal may be signaled. Entry: Wait for a clear break and test back to the current high range or a demonstrated bullish candle pattern in the FVG area being filled. An entry might be at about 1.1520-1.1530 should confirmation be observed. Target: The following big resistance level, which could be the liquidity pool ($S) at 1.1540, and thereafter, at 1.1580-1.1600, the Stop-Loss: Below recent low or an important support level, i.e., below 1.1500 or current Bullish OB. Scenario 2: Continuing Bearish Pressure (In case current FVG gets filled and it fails to hold) Bias: Short-term bearish, expecting to see a continuation of the downtrend after the FVG is filled. Rationale: If it extends this ongoing FVG and then shows signs towards rejection (e.g., bearish candlestick patterns, failure to break through resistances), it could be signaling continuation in the prior downtrend. Entry: Look for bearish confirmation after the FVG fills, which would be a break down through the newest low or low side of the current range. Potential entry would be at 1.1500-1.1510 on a confirmed break down. Target: The "Bullish OB" around 1.1440-1.1450, and potentially the lower FVG around 1.1400. Stop-Loss: At or higher than the newest swing top or key level of resistance, e.g. 1.1530-1.1540 Relevant Factors: Risk Management: You should always use appropriate position sizing and use a stop-loss to manage your risk. Confirmation: Hold out for firm price action confirmation before entering any trade. News Events: Be aware of any scheduled economic news releases or events that could impact EUR/USD, potentially creating huge volatility. Bigger Timeframes: Always consider the bigger picture context (i.e., day, week) in order to obtain a general trend.
by HUGOF
13
Euro Poised for Upside: Will $1.18 Be the Next Key Level?Targets: - T1 = $1.17075 - T2 = $1.18075 Stop Levels: - S1 = $1.14075 - S2 = $1.13075 **Wisdom of Professional Traders:** This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom of crowds principle suggests that aggregated market perspectives from experienced professionals often outperform individual forecasts, reducing cognitive biases and highlighting consensus opportunities in Euro. **Key Insights:** The Euro is currently positioned for potential upside, supported by the European Central Bank's (ECB) cautious approach to monetary policy. ECB President Christine Lagarde’s statements regarding inflation targeting have reinforced confidence in the currency, creating a stable outlook amidst broader global uncertainty. Additionally, improvements in European economic data—particularly stronger-than-expected manufacturing PMI figures—have increased bullish sentiment among professional traders. Forex traders are closely watching upcoming inflation reports and employment statistics for additional confirmation of a continued uptrend. Technical indicators, such as rising Relative Strength Index (RSI) levels and bullish moving average crossovers, suggest further upside momentum. Breakouts above psychological levels, such as $1.17000, could drive stronger buying activity and potentially pave the way for the Euro to test higher resistance levels. **Recent Performance:** The Euro has demonstrated resilience in recent weeks, hovering around the $1.15075 mark. Despite fluctuations due to mixed signals from equity and bond markets, the Euro has benefited from safe-haven inflows as geopolitical tensions brew in other parts of the world. Additionally, its stability has kept it among the top-performing currencies within the G10 forex universe. **Expert Analysis:** Forex market analysts are broadly in agreement about the potential near-term strength of the Euro. The ECB’s patient approach to monetary tightening is seen as providing a consistent support mechanism for the currency. Furthermore, the Euro has gained traction against traditionally weaker currencies such as the Japanese Yen and the British Pound, presenting further arbitrage opportunities for traders. Technicians point to the importance of $1.17000 as a crucial level to test before further gains can be realized. A confirmed breakout could lead to extended upside, potentially reaching $1.18 or more. However, downside risks remain, especially if the Dollar strengthens unexpectedly due to hawkish Federal Reserve policy or significant geopolitical escalations. **News Impact:** Recent news surrounding improved trade agreements between the UK and Europe has reduced uncertainty and supported the Euro as bullish sentiment grows. However, traders should remain cautious of geopolitical risks, including recent tensions in the Middle East, which could create safe-haven flows into other currencies like the Swiss Franc or US Dollar. Regulatory challenges facing US technology firms in Europe are also shaping broader equity movements that could indirectly influence the Euro's performance. **Trading Recommendation:** Based on bullish sentiment from professional traders, improved technical metrics, and the ECB’s supportive policies, we recommend a LONG position on Euro. The current price action suggests the probability of an upside breakout, with targets of $1.17 and $1.18 offering potential rewards. Ensure stops are placed thoughtfully within the levels outlined to mitigate risks from broader market volatility. This trade provides a promising opportunity to capitalize on the Euro’s relative strength.
Long
by CrowdWisdomTrading
EUR/USD analysis and pending orderTwo days ago, there was a FED meeting, where it was stated that the benchmark interest rate will be kept at 4.25-4.50% level. What is important is what they told - the expectations - economicp rojections are lower, and inflation is higher. Maybe they’ll decrease rates in future? Right now, it’s not so important. It’s summer already, and by the old “Sell in May, and go aways” mentality, I don’t expect some huge impact on the market. I know… Iran, Israel, Trump, maybe even Putin? Anybody can do some stupit stuff and everything can go to Hell. And it’s Friday, not very smart time to open trades, so I’m putting pending order. I decided for EUR/USD. Timeframe is 4h. On my chart I can see clear uptrend in the last couple of weeks, especially in the last 3 months. Also, I see lower highs. Upward trend is breached… Where it could stop? Overall, I don’t expect the pair will come near parity, even though ECB lowered rates before FED did. But some “selloff”, probably. I used good old Fibonacci, draw it, and the price could potentialy drop to 50% level or even ideal 61…8%-78.6% zone. Pending entry: 1.15577 TP: 1.12645 SL: 1.1671 If it activates today, I’ll leave it over the weekend.
Short
by justcoinme
4
Trump’s Strike on Iran Lifts Dollar, Weighs on EuroEUR/USD dipped to around 1.1480 in early Asian trading Monday as the dollar strengthens following President Trump’s decision to join Israel’s war on Iran, escalating the conflict. Over the weekend, US forces struck three Iranian nuclear sites; Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan. Trump claimed the facilities were “totally obliterated” and warned of harsher attacks unless Iran seeks peace. The escalation supports safe-haven demand for the dollar, pressuring EUR/USD. Meanwhile, the ECB cut rates for the eighth time this year but signaled a pause in July. President Lagarde said cuts are nearing an end, which may help limit euro losses. Resistance is located at 1.1530, while support is seen at 1.1450
by ChartMage
EURUSD LONG FORECAST Q2 W26 D23 Y25EURUSD LONG FORECAST Q2 W26 D23 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅Daily order block ✅15' order block ✅Intraday breaks of structure ✅4H Order block 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
Long
by JCFRGNT
Fundamental Market Analysis for June 23, 2025 EURUSDThe EUR/USD exchange rate fell to around 1.14900 at the start of the Asian session on Monday. The US dollar is strengthening against the euro (EUR) amid US President Donald Trump's decision to join Israel's war against Iran, which has sharply escalated the conflict. Traders will closely monitor developments surrounding the conflict in the Middle East. Over the weekend, the US entered the conflict between Israel and Iran when American military aircraft and submarines struck three Iranian targets in Iran, Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Trump said Iran's key uranium enrichment facilities had been “totally destroyed” and warned of “much more severe” strikes if Iran did not agree to peace. The rise in tensions following the US bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities is contributing to the rise in safe-haven currencies such as the US dollar and is having a negative impact on the major currency pair. Earlier this month, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the eighth time this year to support the eurozone's sluggish recovery, but made it clear that there would be a pause in July. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that rate cuts are coming to an end, as the central bank is now “well positioned” to deal with the current uncertainty. The ECB's hawkish tone may help limit the euro's losses in the near term. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.15000, SL 1.14600, TP 1.15800
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EURUSD: the PCE on scheduleThe FOMC meeting was the main event watched closely by investors during the previous week. The Fed left rates unchanged, as was widely expected, but still counted on two 25bps cuts till the end of this year. The main information was related to the effects of implemented trade tariffs by the US Administration, for which the Fed expects to be reflected on the economy in the coming period. Inflation is the main concern in this sense, however, it could be only a one-off effect. The Fed continues to be data-driven when it comes to their decision. As for other macro data posted during the previous week, the Retail Sales in May dropped by -0,9% for the month, which was higher from expected -0,7%. The Industrial Production in May also dropped by -0,2% on a monthly basis, bringing the indicator to the level of 0,6% compared to the previous year. Both figures were lower from market estimates. The Building Permits preliminary in May reached 1.393M, lower from forecasted 1,43M. At the same time Housing Starts in May reached the number of 1.256M, again lower from estimated 1,36M. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in June for Germany was standing at the level of 47,5, higher from market estimate of 35. The same index for the Euro Zone was at the level of 35,3, again higher from forecasted 23,5. The Inflation Rate final in May for the Euro Zone was at the level of 0% for the month and 1,9% on a yearly basis, and without changes from the previous post. The Producers Price Index in Germany in May dropped by -0,2% for the month and -1,2% for the year. As Middle East tensions have already been priced by markets, the previous week's focus was on the Fed. The market reaction on the news was not stronger as all known facts were already priced in. The eurusd was moving in a range between 1,1613 and 1,1448 during the week. The currency pair is closing the week at the level of 1,1523. The RSI is moving closer to the overbought market side, ending the week at the level of 59. The MA50 continues to diverge from MA200, without an indication of a forthcoming potential cross. For the week ahead, charts are pointing toward both directions, with equal probabilities. On one side, there is a potential that the currency pair will most likely test the 1,16 level for one more time, but charts are not pointing toward the potential for higher grounds, at this moment. On the opposite side, there is probability that the 1,1450 will be tested for one more time, but the targeting levels will most probably be between 1,1420 and 1,1380. In every case, fundamentals to be watched in a week ahead are the May PCE data on Friday and Fed Chair Powell`s testimony in front of the Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. These two events might bring higher volatility in case that new information emerges, which was up to now unknown to markets. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: HCOB Manufacturing PMI flash for June in Germany and the Euro Zone, Ifo Business Climate in June in Germany, GfK Consumer Confidence in July for Germany, USD: S&P Global Composite PMI flash for June, Existing Home Sales in June, Fed Chair Powell testimony in front of the Congress on Tuesday, June 24th, Durable Goods Orders in May, GDP Growth Rate q/q final for Q1, PCE Price Index in May will be posted on Friday, June 27th.
by XBTFX
Supply Trap Revisit Before Final Drop? | Smart Money Outlook 📉 Price has recently reacted from a strong FVG + Demand + Liquidity Start Zone (4hr) around 1.1450, confirming bullish intent temporarily. 📈 However, a corrective move is now heading into a 4hr Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone near 1.1520–1.1550, which aligns with a potential lower high setup. Key Zones: Supply Zone @ 1.1550 (Caution): Watch for rejection signs here—high confluence with previous imbalance. Bearish Expectation: After liquidity grab or mitigation in FVG, expect a strong sell-off targeting the 1.1410 level (measured move and 1.618 fib extension). ⚠️ Be cautious of price pushing slightly above 1.1550 to sweep liquidity before reversing.
Short
by ClearTradingMind