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Fundamental Market Analysis for June 23, 2025 EURUSDThe EUR/USD exchange rate fell to around 1.14900 at the start of the Asian session on Monday. The US dollar is strengthening against the euro (EUR) amid US President Donald Trump's decision to join Israel's war against Iran, which has sharply escalated the conflict. Traders will closely monitor developments surrounding the conflict in the Middle East. Over the weekend, the US entered the conflict between Israel and Iran when American military aircraft and submarines struck three Iranian targets in Iran, Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Trump said Iran's key uranium enrichment facilities had been “totally destroyed” and warned of “much more severe” strikes if Iran did not agree to peace. The rise in tensions following the US bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities is contributing to the rise in safe-haven currencies such as the US dollar and is having a negative impact on the major currency pair. Earlier this month, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the eighth time this year to support the eurozone's sluggish recovery, but made it clear that there would be a pause in July. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that rate cuts are coming to an end, as the central bank is now “well positioned” to deal with the current uncertainty. The ECB's hawkish tone may help limit the euro's losses in the near term. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.15000, SL 1.14600, TP 1.15800
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
EURUSD: the PCE on scheduleThe FOMC meeting was the main event watched closely by investors during the previous week. The Fed left rates unchanged, as was widely expected, but still counted on two 25bps cuts till the end of this year. The main information was related to the effects of implemented trade tariffs by the US Administration, for which the Fed expects to be reflected on the economy in the coming period. Inflation is the main concern in this sense, however, it could be only a one-off effect. The Fed continues to be data-driven when it comes to their decision. As for other macro data posted during the previous week, the Retail Sales in May dropped by -0,9% for the month, which was higher from expected -0,7%. The Industrial Production in May also dropped by -0,2% on a monthly basis, bringing the indicator to the level of 0,6% compared to the previous year. Both figures were lower from market estimates. The Building Permits preliminary in May reached 1.393M, lower from forecasted 1,43M. At the same time Housing Starts in May reached the number of 1.256M, again lower from estimated 1,36M. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in June for Germany was standing at the level of 47,5, higher from market estimate of 35. The same index for the Euro Zone was at the level of 35,3, again higher from forecasted 23,5. The Inflation Rate final in May for the Euro Zone was at the level of 0% for the month and 1,9% on a yearly basis, and without changes from the previous post. The Producers Price Index in Germany in May dropped by -0,2% for the month and -1,2% for the year. As Middle East tensions have already been priced by markets, the previous week's focus was on the Fed. The market reaction on the news was not stronger as all known facts were already priced in. The eurusd was moving in a range between 1,1613 and 1,1448 during the week. The currency pair is closing the week at the level of 1,1523. The RSI is moving closer to the overbought market side, ending the week at the level of 59. The MA50 continues to diverge from MA200, without an indication of a forthcoming potential cross. For the week ahead, charts are pointing toward both directions, with equal probabilities. On one side, there is a potential that the currency pair will most likely test the 1,16 level for one more time, but charts are not pointing toward the potential for higher grounds, at this moment. On the opposite side, there is probability that the 1,1450 will be tested for one more time, but the targeting levels will most probably be between 1,1420 and 1,1380. In every case, fundamentals to be watched in a week ahead are the May PCE data on Friday and Fed Chair Powell`s testimony in front of the Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. These two events might bring higher volatility in case that new information emerges, which was up to now unknown to markets. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: HCOB Manufacturing PMI flash for June in Germany and the Euro Zone, Ifo Business Climate in June in Germany, GfK Consumer Confidence in July for Germany, USD: S&P Global Composite PMI flash for June, Existing Home Sales in June, Fed Chair Powell testimony in front of the Congress on Tuesday, June 24th, Durable Goods Orders in May, GDP Growth Rate q/q final for Q1, PCE Price Index in May will be posted on Friday, June 27th.
by XBTFX
Supply Trap Revisit Before Final Drop? | Smart Money Outlook 📉 Price has recently reacted from a strong FVG + Demand + Liquidity Start Zone (4hr) around 1.1450, confirming bullish intent temporarily. 📈 However, a corrective move is now heading into a 4hr Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone near 1.1520–1.1550, which aligns with a potential lower high setup. Key Zones: Supply Zone @ 1.1550 (Caution): Watch for rejection signs here—high confluence with previous imbalance. Bearish Expectation: After liquidity grab or mitigation in FVG, expect a strong sell-off targeting the 1.1410 level (measured move and 1.618 fib extension). ⚠️ Be cautious of price pushing slightly above 1.1550 to sweep liquidity before reversing.
Short
by ClearTradingMind
EURUSD InsightWelcome, everyone! Please feel free to share your personal thoughts in the comments. Don’t forget to hit the booster and subscribe! Key Highlights - Christopher Waller, a Federal Reserve Governor, stated in a CNBC interview that a rate cut in July should be considered. - The United States has attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities located in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. In response, Iran has hinted at potentially blocking the Strait of Hormuz and has warned of retaliatory action. The U.S. Department of Defense responded by warning that any retaliation would result in a much stronger counterattack. - According to The Wall Street Journal, the Trump administration has notified that it plans to restrict the supply of U.S.-made semiconductor equipment to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix’s factories in China. This Week’s Key Economic Events + June 24: Fed Chair Jerome Powell testimony + June 25: Fed Chair Jerome Powell testimony + June 26: U.S. Q1 GDP release + June 27: U.S. May PCE Price Index release EURUSD Chart Analysis The EURUSD pair has shown a downward move after facing resistance at a recent trend high. Although it is currently experiencing a slight rebound around the 1.14500 level, the overall trend remains bearish. The next likely support level is around 1.13000, and a recovery may follow once this area is tested. If, contrary to expectations, the price breaks above the current trend high, a new strategy will be established accordingly.
Short
by shawntime_academy
EURUSD H4 I Bearish Reversal Off the 61.8% FibBased on the H4 chart, the price is rising toward our sell entry level at 1.1555, a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fib retracement. Our take profit is set at 1.1457, an overlap support. The stop loss is set at 1.1632, a swing high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
EURUSD – Technical Analysis and Long Position OpportunityIn this pair, there is a possibility to open a long position. When analyzing the pair on higher timeframes, using a 45-period exponential moving average and two simple moving averages of 70 and 95 periods, supported by a Parabolic SAR, an opportunity for a buy position can be identified. Although the pair is currently consolidating on lower timeframes, it is showing a strong upward movement on the higher timeframes. This outlook is based on the fact that, in June, a significant bullish candle was formed, followed this month by a doji candle pattern, which could indicate a continuation of the upward trend. On the higher timeframes, the technical indicators are also aligning in the correct order and direction, suggesting that this may be the right moment to enter a long position. However, it is important to emphasize that, despite the technical analysis presented, attention should be given to news, economic data, and other factors that could impact this pair, as this analysis relies solely on technical criteria. The long position tool shown on the chart serves only as additional support for entering the trade.
Long
by faluacuz_fx
Bearish reversal?EUR/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.1555 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.1608 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance. Take profit: 1.1483 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
EURUSD -> Bullish Idea 22/06/2025(ICT x Volume Profile)OANDA:EURUSD 🎯 Bias: Bullish 🕒 Timeframe: H1 primary, H15 confirmation Happy sunday traders! Following President Trump’s strikes on Iran, I expect an initial bearish reaction in the Asian and London Sessions, then a bullish reaction in the NY sessions as sellers push the USD lower. However, the prevailing trend context remains bullish: the hourly chart has shifted structure (MSS) and broke structure to the upside. I anticipate a liquidity sweep below the recent lows, before a retracement into the 15-minute fair value gap (FVG) which aligns with the volume profile, then continuation higher to target the weak high and into the swing highs marked.
Long
by bobphamm
Can the EUR/USD break out of its range-bound trading?The EUR/USD has advanced for the third consecutive trading day, rebounding above the key 1.1500 level and trading around 1.1530 during the European session. US President Trump's statement that it would take two weeks to decide whether to intervene in the Middle East conflict effectively alleviated market concerns over conflict escalation, providing support for the euro. Analysts believe that the exchange rate is likely to remain range-bound between 1.1400 and 1.1600 over the next 1-2 weeks. Any new developments in geopolitical tensions could significantly impact the exchange rate. If positive progress is made in the Iran nuclear talks, the exchange rate is expected to challenge the upper boundary of the range; conversely, if the Middle East situation deteriorates further, the exchange rate may retest the 1.14 support level. you are currently struggling with losses，or are unsure which of the numerous trading strategies to follow,You have the option to join our VIP program. I will assist you and provide you with accurate trading signals, enabling you to navigate the financial markets with greater confidence and potentially achieve optimal trading results. Trading Strategy: buy@1.4500-1.4700 TP:1.5300-1.5500
Long
by MyronWilson
HelenP. I Euro will break resistance level and continue to fallHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. On this chart, we can see how price initially moved inside a triangle formation, forming higher lows from the trend line and testing the resistance zone multiple times. Eventually, price broke out to the downside, falling sharply and breaking through the lower boundary of the triangle and also the trend line, signaling a shift in market sentiment. After touching the support zone and forming a temporary bottom, the pair started climbing back up, but this movement was more of a correction than a trend reversal. Price respected the trend line from below and followed it upward, but failed to break significantly higher. It managed to push above both support 2 and support 1 levels, which now act as resistance. Currently, EURUSD is trading inside the resistance zone, where previous reactions have led to strong bearish impulses. Given this behavior and the recent false breakout, I expect the price to rebound from this area and break back below support. My goal is set at 1.1350, anticipating further downside movement as the bearish structure remains valid. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️ Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Short
by FirstNameHelen
11
#AN009: US attacks IRAN, what will happen? On June 22, 2025, the United States launched air strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites (Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan), using bunker-buster bombs and Tomahawk missiles, some dropped by B-2 stealth bombers President Trump declared that the facilities were “completely and totally obliterated” 📈 Tensions and geopolitical context Tehran responded with missiles aimed at Israel and promised “tough responses” The UN and key figures such as Guterres and Medvedev have defined the action as a dangerous escalation with the risk of a new conflict on a regional scale. Israel supported the attacks, while Iran convened the UN Security Council to condemn the aggression. 💥 Market Impact ⚡ Energy Sector Oil prices jump towards $90–100 per barrel on fears of flows from Iran and potential closures of the Strait of Hormuz. Investors reacted with a move towards safe haven assets such as the Dollar, Gold and Treasuries. 📊 Equities and sensitive sectors Starts on an uncertain tone: S&P500 and Nasdaq futures “volatile open”, with penalties on travel and tech, and increases on energy and defense. Gulf markets open slightly higher (Saudi, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait), thanks to the attenuation of initial sell-offs. 🌍 Global economic impact Weakening predictions from the World Bank, IMF and OECD predict an economic slowdown due to energy shocks and increased global tensions. 📌 Currency and Forex Scenario USD has gained ground as a safe haven asset, benefiting from Safety flows. Commodity-linked pairs, such as AUD/USD, NZD/USD and CAD/USD, will be pressured by rallying oil. Potential increase in volatility on EUR/USD and GBP/USD: they rotate towards safe haven and US/China political risk. 📣 What to watch out for Daily and H4 candlesticks in EUR/USD and GBP/USD to understand if support holds under geopolitical stress. Volatility indicators (VIX | MOVE) are rising, it is useful to calibrate the size and prefer structured trades. In the coming days it will be essential to monitor: Reuters/Bloomberg for updates on possible sanctions or public retaliation. ASEAN and Asia for regional reactions on energy supplies. Central banks on inflation expectations due to high oil. 💡 Conclusions – Market and Forex Impact This military action represents a classic geopolitical shock: rising dollar and defensive assets, pressure on oil and high volatility on stock markets and exchange rates. Unlike Israeli attacks, the direct entry of the US increases the degree of macro uncertainty. For Forex traders: USD Index: potential rebound within the bullish trend channel Pairs with commodities: activate strategies on breakout key levels (e.g. AUD/USD, CAD/USD) Anti-USD FX (EUR, GBP, JPY): under pressure and to be used in range rebound. For the equity sector: Rotation towards defensive sectors, defense, energy. Possible entry into government bonds as a high inflation/political hedge. Overall, the impact is clear: increased geopolitical risk → high volatility → shift towards USD/safe haven asset → penalization of sensitive assets.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP