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EUR/USD_TODTOM - SWAP EUR/USD

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EURUSDTDTM trade ideas

HelenP. I Euro will break resistance level and continue to fallHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. On this chart, we can see how price initially moved inside a triangle formation, forming higher lows from the trend line and testing the resistance zone multiple times. Eventually, price broke out to the downside, falling sharply and breaking through the lower boundary of the triangle and also the trend line, signaling a shift in market sentiment. After touching the support zone and forming a temporary bottom, the pair started climbing back up, but this movement was more of a correction than a trend reversal. Price respected the trend line from below and followed it upward, but failed to break significantly higher. It managed to push above both support 2 and support 1 levels, which now act as resistance. Currently, EURUSD is trading inside the resistance zone, where previous reactions have led to strong bearish impulses. Given this behavior and the recent false breakout, I expect the price to rebound from this area and break back below support. My goal is set at 1.1350, anticipating further downside movement as the bearish structure remains valid. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️ Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Short
by FirstNameHelen
11
#AN009: US attacks IRAN, what will happen? On June 22, 2025, the United States launched air strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites (Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan), using bunker-buster bombs and Tomahawk missiles, some dropped by B-2 stealth bombers President Trump declared that the facilities were “completely and totally obliterated” 📈 Tensions and geopolitical context Tehran responded with missiles aimed at Israel and promised “tough responses” The UN and key figures such as Guterres and Medvedev have defined the action as a dangerous escalation with the risk of a new conflict on a regional scale. Israel supported the attacks, while Iran convened the UN Security Council to condemn the aggression. 💥 Market Impact ⚡ Energy Sector Oil prices jump towards $90–100 per barrel on fears of flows from Iran and potential closures of the Strait of Hormuz. Investors reacted with a move towards safe haven assets such as the Dollar, Gold and Treasuries. 📊 Equities and sensitive sectors Starts on an uncertain tone: S&P500 and Nasdaq futures “volatile open”, with penalties on travel and tech, and increases on energy and defense. Gulf markets open slightly higher (Saudi, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait), thanks to the attenuation of initial sell-offs. 🌍 Global economic impact Weakening predictions from the World Bank, IMF and OECD predict an economic slowdown due to energy shocks and increased global tensions. 📌 Currency and Forex Scenario USD has gained ground as a safe haven asset, benefiting from Safety flows. Commodity-linked pairs, such as AUD/USD, NZD/USD and CAD/USD, will be pressured by rallying oil. Potential increase in volatility on EUR/USD and GBP/USD: they rotate towards safe haven and US/China political risk. 📣 What to watch out for Daily and H4 candlesticks in EUR/USD and GBP/USD to understand if support holds under geopolitical stress. Volatility indicators (VIX | MOVE) are rising, it is useful to calibrate the size and prefer structured trades. In the coming days it will be essential to monitor: Reuters/Bloomberg for updates on possible sanctions or public retaliation. ASEAN and Asia for regional reactions on energy supplies. Central banks on inflation expectations due to high oil. 💡 Conclusions – Market and Forex Impact This military action represents a classic geopolitical shock: rising dollar and defensive assets, pressure on oil and high volatility on stock markets and exchange rates. Unlike Israeli attacks, the direct entry of the US increases the degree of macro uncertainty. For Forex traders: USD Index: potential rebound within the bullish trend channel Pairs with commodities: activate strategies on breakout key levels (e.g. AUD/USD, CAD/USD) Anti-USD FX (EUR, GBP, JPY): under pressure and to be used in range rebound. For the equity sector: Rotation towards defensive sectors, defense, energy. Possible entry into government bonds as a high inflation/political hedge. Overall, the impact is clear: increased geopolitical risk → high volatility → shift towards USD/safe haven asset → penalization of sensitive assets.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
AI Algo Systems vs. Manual Trading: Which Delivers Real Results?AI Algo Systems vs. Manual Trading: Which Delivers Real Results? ⚖️ ________________________________________ Introduction With the explosive rise of artificial intelligence (AI) in financial markets, traders everywhere are asking the million-dollar question: Should I trust my trades to automation, or keep my hands on the wheel? 🧠🤖 This guide offers a real-world, side-by-side comparison between AI-powered algorithmic trading systems and traditional manual trading. We’ll highlight where each method dominates, when they fail, and how you can combine both to build a system that outperforms the rest. 💡 What Are AI Algo Systems? 🤖 AI trading systems use advanced machine learning models to: • Analyze huge volumes of historical and real-time data 📈 • Detect patterns and trading opportunities faster than any human • Automatically execute trades using coded logic, without emotion 🔬 Real-World Examples: • Neural networks (LSTM, CNN): Predicting EUR/USD direction based on years of tick data • Reinforcement learning agents: Managing position sizing dynamically in crypto scalping • Predictive classifiers: Spotting likely trend reversals on S&P 500 based on 20+ indicators Key Benefits: • 🔄 Emotionless execution: No fear, no greed, just rules • ⏱️ Lightning-fast trades: React to price action instantly • 📊 Pattern recognition: Finds subtle correlations people miss ________________________________________ What Is Manual Trading? 👤 Manual trading is powered by human intelligence and judgment. Traders use: • Price action and SMC/ICT techniques (e.g., order blocks, BOS) • Fundamental analysis: News, sentiment, macro reports • Intuition and experience: Reading between the lines the way only humans can 🧑‍💼 Real-World Examples: • A trader spots an untested order block on GBP/JPY and waits for liquidity sweep before entering • Reading a dovish tone in FOMC minutes and fading the initial spike on DXY • Using “market structure shifts” after a big news event to catch a reversal Key Benefits: • 🔍 Contextual awareness: Understand the full market story • 🎯 Real-time adaptability: Adjust plans on the fly • 🧠 Creative edge: Find setups no algorithm can code for ________________________________________ Side-by-Side Comparison Table 📋 Feature AI Algo Trading 🤖 Manual Trading 👤 Execution Speed Instant Slower, can lag Emotions Involved None Prone to fear/greed Adaptability Limited (needs retrain) High Learning Curve High (coding/tech) Medium (market logic) Strategy Flexibility Pre-coded only Unlimited creativity Backtesting Automated Manual/semi-auto Session Monitoring 24/5 via server Human-limited hours ________________________________________ When AI Algo Systems Work Best 💾 AI is unbeatable when you need: • Scalability: Watching 10, 20, or even 100+ pairs 24/5 • High-frequency execution: Entering/exiting trades within milliseconds • Repetitive strategies: Like mean reversion, breakout scalps, or arbitrage 📈 Example: • Strategy: EUR/USD London open breakout • Process: AI model detects volume and volatility spike, enters trade with 0.3% risk, targets FVG • Results: 60% win rate, 1.8R average reward over 3 months ________________________________________ When Manual Trading Wins 🧠 Manual skills shine when you need: • Discretionary entries: Especially with complex SMC/ICT structures • Adapting to breaking news: Sudden CPI, FOMC shocks, geopolitical headlines • Making sense of market narrative: When volatility is off the charts and AI gets confused 🗞️ Example: • News: Surprise ECB rate hike • Setup: Price sweeps liquidity and forms new order block • Action: Trader enters based on confluence of structure, sentiment, and news • Why AI fails: Model trained on normal volatility might get stopped out or miss entry entirely ________________________________________ Hybrid Strategy: The Best of Both Worlds 🌐 Elite traders combine the power of AI with human oversight. Hybrid Workflow: 1. AI scans markets: Flags setups (order blocks, FVGs, volume spikes) 2. You review: Confirm bias with news, sentiment, or higher time frame 3. Entry: o Manual (you pull the trigger) o Semi-automated (AI suggests, you approve) 🔁 You save time, avoid missing setups, but keep critical discretion and control. ________________________________________ Risk Management: Algo vs. Manual 📊 AI: • Stops, lot size, SL/TP are auto-calculated • Consistent, never emotional • Example: EA manages all USD pairs with 0.5% fixed risk per trade Manual: • Trader might override risk plan • Discipline needed—easy to “revenge trade” after a loss • Example: You up your risk size after a losing streak, breaking your rules Best Practice: 📌 Let AI calculate risk size. Manually approve or override the entry. Double safety net. ________________________________________ Trader Case Study 👤 Name: Ray – $100K funded prop trader Style: Hybrid (AI scanner + manual ICT confirmations) Process: • Sets HTF bias each morning • AI scans for OB/BOS setups during NY session • Manual review before entry Performance: • Win rate: 63% • Avg R: 2.5 • Monthly gain: 9.7% Ray’s Words: “AI catches what I can’t see. I catch what it can’t understand.” ________________________________________ Mistakes to Avoid ❌ • 🚫 Blindly trusting black-box AI: Always verify signals • 🚫 Micromanaging every tick: Let automation work, don’t over-interfere • 🚫 Running AI during high-impact news: Most bots aren’t built for chaos • 🚫 Ignoring psychology: Even if AI executes, your mindset impacts risk and management ________________________________________ Conclusion ✅ There’s no one-size-fits-all answer. The best traders in 2025 master both worlds. Here’s the winning formula: • Harness AI’s speed and pattern recognition • Lean on manual judgment for narrative and nuance • Blend them with intention and structure for a trading system that’s fast, flexible, and resilient. 💥 Don’t pick sides. Master both. That’s how the top 1% trade today—and win. 🚀⚙️📊
Education
by ProjectSyndicate
31
EURUSD| Weekly OutlookSame story as last week — still patiently waiting for the major engineered liquidity above to get cleared before considering any meaningful longs. That said, EU is currently offering a clean structure for short setups into the downside order block. Everything is lining up technically, but it’s important to note this is a counter-trend move — and personally, I’m not taking it. It’s tempting when structure looks this clean, but I know it’s not my proper approach. For me, the real play is still higher — waiting on that bull-side OB mitigation to align with the bigger picture narrative. Until then, I’ll let others chase while I sit on my hands. Pure discipline only. Bless Trading!
by Juicemannn
7
Forex and Gold Market Highlights June 21 2025Forex & Gold Market Highlights – June 21, 2025 🕒 Key Events This Week: • 🏦 Fed officials signaling possible rate cuts vs. cautious economic tone • 🌍 Escalating Israel–Iran tensions boosting safe-haven flows • 🏭 Mixed U.S. macro data (retail sales, Philly Fed, housing) shaping Fed expectations ________________________________________ 💶 EUR/USD Nears 1.1520 on Safe-Haven Flows EUR/USD edged up to about 1.1520 amid weakness in the U.S. dollar, driven by global risk-off sentiment. Mixed signals from the Fed kept traders cautious. ________________________________________ 💷 GBP/USD Hovering Around 1.3500 on USD Strength GBP/USD remains near 1.3500, slipping slightly off highs after weaker UK retail data. The pair faces resistance in the 1.3550–1.3600 zone. ________________________________________ 💴 USD/JPY Eyeballing 146 Resistance USD/JPY climbed toward 146.00, driven by risk-averse USD demand and dovish BOJ stance. The pair is testing key retracement resistance near 146.76. ________________________________________ 🥇 Gold Pulls Back but Holds Ground Spot gold slid to around $3,334 3,381 this week, under pressure from a stronger dollar and diminished Fed rate-cut hopes. Still, geopolitical jitters kept it from falling hard. • Weekly drop of ~2.5%, trading in a $3,330–$3,400 range. ________________________________________ 📈 DXY Index Rallies on Risk Aversion The U.S. Dollar Index rose ~0.45%, marking its strongest weekly gain in over a month due to heightened safe-haven flows amid Middle East tensions. ________________________________________ 📌 Market Outlook: • EUR/USD: Mixed bias. May test 1.1550–1.1600 if risk-off continues; downside risk near 1.1400 if U.S. data surprises. • GBP/USD: Expected to stay in the 1.3450–1.3550 range; UK economic data and USD momentum will be key. • USD/JPY: Bullish tilt remains toward 146.76, but any BOJ hints of policy tightening could shake it. • Gold: Pressure from a firm dollar is likely to persist. Watch for geopolitical developments and upcoming Fed signals for reversal clues.
Long
by ProjectSyndicate
19
EURUSD POSSIBLE TRADE SETUP💶 Potential Trade Setup on EURUSD Overview: Since March, EURUSD has shown consistent bullish momentum, especially after breaking through the key 1.0600 supply zone. The pair has maintained higher highs and higher lows, suggesting continued strength in the medium term. That said, I am still quite anticipating for a possible continuation of the bullish momentum that started a long time ago, and moving forward, I will anticipate for a clear retest of the 50% fib at the 1.1425 region, then I go in for the kill. Alternatively, there is a clear short opportunity, provided that, the bullish trendline is broken and the 1.1370 region is broken to the downside, this is a bit far a stretch, but it is in play. "IF" the DXY keeps the bullish momentum going. 🧭 Trading Plan: ✅ BUY Bias (Primary Plan): Look for a retest of the 50% Fibonacci retracement zone around 1.1425. This aligns with the ongoing momentum on the 4H timeframe. 🔻 SELL Bias (Alternative Scenario): If price breaks the bullish trendline and the 1.1370 support zone, a short opportunity opens up. This is only valid if DXY continues to strengthen, shifting sentiment. 🎯 Targets & Risk Management: Targeting 1:2 R:R on both setups. Ensure entries are backed by price action signals and confluences.
Long
by Adefxc
EU could go up againHi traders, Last week EU made a bigger (overlapping) correction to the downside so now the wave count is invalid. I must admit that I don't see a clear Elliott wave pattern. There are multiple options. This last pattern could be a corrective pattern and next week we could see a next impulsive wave. Or it is a bearish leading diagonal and next week we could see this pair drop. At the moment my main (fundamental) bias is still bullish. But let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for more development of price action. If you want to learn more about trading with FVG's, liquidity sweeps and Wave analysis, then make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
Long
by EduwaveTrading
EURUSD Gearing Up for Next Leg Up – DXY Weakens After PPI MissToday, key U.S. economic indexes were released, providing fresh insights into inflationary pressures and the state of the labor market: Core PPI m/m: Actual: 0.1% | Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: -0.4% Lower than expected – suggests weaker underlying producer inflation. PPI m/m: Actual: 0.1% | Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: -0.5% Slight miss – overall inflation at the producer level remains soft. Unemployment Claims: Actual: 248K | Forecast: 242K | Previous: 247K Slightly higher than forecast – signaling some cooling in the labor market. Market Outlook : These data releases point toward cooling inflation and softness in job growth, which may strengthen the dovish narrative around the Fed’s next move. DXY Index ( TVC:DXY ) is under pressure, and EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) is showing signs of bullish momentum . ----------------------------------------------------------- Now let's take a look at the EURUSD chart on the 1-hour time frame . EURUSD is trading near the Heavy Resistance zone($1.182-$1.160) and Monthly Resistance(2) . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , EURUSD appears to be completing microwave 4 . Microwave 4 could be completed at one of the Fibonacci levels . I expect EURUSD to attack the Heavy Resistance zone($1.182-$1.160) at least once more after completing microwave 4 and could even rise to the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) . Note: If EURUSD touches $1.1446 , we can expect more dump. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Euro/U.S. Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 1-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
5
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 20, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During this week's trading session, the Eurodollar has encountered a significant decline, dipping below the Mean Support level of 1.149; however, it exhibited a modest recovery on Friday. Recent analyses indicate that the Euro is likely to decrease further to the Mean Support level of 1.148, with the potential for extending its bearish trend to reach 1.140. Nevertheless, there remains a possibility that the current recovery will persist, which could result in price movements targeting the Key Resistance level at 1.158 and potentially leading to a retest of the Outer Currency Rally's 1.163 mark.
by TradeSelecter
3
Chartanalyse: Der Chart zeigt eine Seitwärtskonsolidierung mitTechnical Overview: The EUR/USD chart exhibits signs of a bearish reversal pattern forming near a key resistance zone (1.15800 - 1.16000), highlighted with repeated rejection wicks (🔴 red arrows). Price is currently trading at 1.15222, after failing to hold above the neckline of the rounded bottom pattern. 🔍 Key Observations: 🔺 Resistance Zone: Strong resistance has been confirmed multiple times (red arrows), indicating sellers are active at the top. 🟠 Double Top / Head & Shoulders Behavior: Price action shows topping formations (highlighted with orange circles), suggesting exhaustion of bullish momentum. 📉 Bearish Breakdown Possibility: Price rejected near neckline and is showing bearish candle formations. Breakdown from the current consolidation zone could push price toward the target zone at 1.14491, marked in purple. This aligns with previous support structure, reinforcing a technical downside projection. 🔻 Support Zone: Around 1.13800 - 1.14000 is a strong area of demand and may act as the next bounce point if the bearish move continues. 📐 Chart Pattern Structure: Rounded bottom formed earlier, but the failure to continue higher and breakout suggests a false breakout trap for buyers. Downward sloping trendline broke, but now price is struggling to sustain above previous highs. 📌 Conclusion: ⚠️ Caution for bulls as price shows signs of weakness at resistance. A move below 1.15000 may initiate further downside toward 1.14491 and possibly lower. Short-term traders can watch for confirmation candles near this zone for entries. 📅 Short-Term Bias: Bearish 🎯 Target: 1.14491 ⛔️ Invalidation: Strong breakout above 1.16000
Short
by MrStellanSight
EURUSD BEARISH SETUP The EUR/USD 4-hour chart reflects a significant technical setup, showing price action within a bullish ascending channel that has recently broken to the downside, forming a falling wedge pattern—typically a bullish continuation signal. Key Observations: Bullish Channel Broken: The price broke below the ascending channel earlier this month, signaling initial weakness. Falling Wedge Formation: A bullish falling wedge has developed, and the pair is now testing its upper boundary near 1.1522, attempting a breakout. Resistance Zone: The price is approaching a key resistance area between 1.1550 – 1.1600, which aligns with previous highs and the wedge's upper edge. Scenario Projection: A temporary bullish breakout toward the resistance zone is expected. If the pair gets rejected from this resistance, a sharp decline toward the major support area near 1.1300 is likely. Bearish Confirmation: A clear rejection at the resistance zone followed by a break below the recent minor support (red zone) would confirm the bearish move. Conclusion: While short-term bullish momentum may push EUR/USD slightly higher, the confluence of resistance levels suggests a high probability of rejection. Traders should watch for reversal signals in the 1.1550–1.1600 zone, as failure to break higher could lead to a bearish move toward 1.1300 in the coming days.
Short
by traderchamp_