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GpPa Model / EUR/USD Balanced Limit Order Short EntryGpPa Analysis / Entry Justification under the GpPa Model *The Analysis is the same as the conservative and dynamic entry* The main entry is conservative, so, the analysis remains beside this part: If we're not sure if the conservative entry can be mitigated, we can use the balance one. It uses the same VWAP level at the following fractal, just one maximum below. 1. Liquidity a. Liquidity Related to Structure The price’s liquidity is distributed within a relatively narrow range, marked by several highs and lows and a false manipulative bias (indicated as internal liquidity in a lighter color). This liquidity distribution suggests a long-term and mid-term bearish trend (notably from the M3 and M1 timeframes backward) that has weakened in the short term, evolving into a chaotic structure. b. Liquidity Related to Directionality The diagonal liquidity—responsible for driving the price to manipulate highs and lows—is more pronounced at the highs. However, the directional bias appears to favor mitigating the lows. c. Decision Regarding Liquidity Recent price action indicates the development of a retracement. This retracement could either continue the bearish trend or lead to a range-bound structure due to an exhausted bearish trend. 2. Trajectory / Direction (Structure) a. Coefficient of Trajectory, Direction, and Validation (-41.20%; -58.80%) 19.10% These coefficients confirm the signals derived from the liquidity analysis. While the price shows a clear long-term and mid-term bearish trend, the opposing validation factor may indicate an exhaustion of the retracement—or even of the trend itself—thus reinforcing the possibility of a range-bound market. 3. Entries a. Conservative Entry The VWAP is placed alongside an additional FRVP at the major fractal preceding the M1 structure to define a conservative entry. Once positioned, this setup confirms the bearish character and the established range, allowing the identification of a high-probability entry at the manipulated high. This entry is validated by: - Long-term volume - A high-probability VWAP zone for shorts within the range - A long-term order block (M1) i. Coefficients of the Conservative Entry - Fractal Quality Coefficient: 50.00% - Entry Quality Coefficient: -19.82% - Entry Probability: -50.00% - Stop Loss Probability: -100.00% - Take Profit Probability: -50.00% The entry is highly likely to be mitigated over the long term, with the conservative analysis expiring on March 25, 2025. Although the quality is decent, it is not optimal since the evaluation was based solely on the VWAP. The Stop Loss is set at 2 ATR from the last manipulated high (calculated from the median of the data) and is strongly protected by volume, two highs, two order blocks, and the VWAP level. This setup reflects an extremely optimistic scenario for the euro, which does not fully align with recent fundamental news—suggesting that a significant move would be necessary to breach this level. The Take Profit should be seen not as a final objective but rather as a target for partial profit-taking and for moving the stop to breakeven once the objective is reached. 4. Other Comments - The price is currently in a zone that attracts little interest from swing traders. As of February 10, 2025, the price is in a well-developed retracement, which discourages taking shorts lightly. - A long trade might be considered at the manipulated minimum below the structure; however, given the euro’s recent fundamentals and the prevailing long-term and mid-term bearish trend, such a trade should only be executed with carefully adjusted Stop Loss and Take Profit levels. Do you like my analysis? Follow me on social media: thewayofrichie Let's trade, Richie
Short
by ricardo_ndns
GpPa Model / EUR/USD Conservative Limit Order Short EntryGpPa Analysis / Entry Justification under the GpPa Model 1. Liquidity a. Liquidity Related to Structure The price’s liquidity is distributed within a relatively narrow range, marked by several highs and lows and a false manipulative bias (indicated as internal liquidity in a lighter color). This liquidity distribution suggests a long-term and mid-term bearish trend (notably from the M3 and M1 timeframes backward) that has weakened in the short term, evolving into a chaotic structure. b. Liquidity Related to Directionality The diagonal liquidity—responsible for driving the price to manipulate highs and lows—is more pronounced at the highs. However, the directional bias appears to favor mitigating the lows. c. Decision Regarding Liquidity Recent price action indicates the development of a retracement. This retracement could either continue the bearish trend or lead to a range-bound structure due to an exhausted bearish trend. 2. Trajectory / Direction (Structure) a. Coefficient of Trajectory, Direction, and Validation (-41.20%; -58.80%) 19.10% These coefficients confirm the signals derived from the liquidity analysis. While the price shows a clear long-term and mid-term bearish trend, the opposing validation factor may indicate an exhaustion of the retracement—or even of the trend itself—thus reinforcing the possibility of a range-bound market. 3. Entries a. Conservative Entry The VWAP is placed alongside an additional FRVP at the major fractal preceding the M1 structure to define a conservative entry. Once positioned, this setup confirms the bearish character and the established range, allowing the identification of a high-probability entry at the manipulated high. This entry is validated by: - Long-term volume - A high-probability VWAP zone for shorts within the range - A long-term order block (M1) i. Coefficients of the Conservative Entry - Fractal Quality Coefficient: 50.00% - Entry Quality Coefficient: -19.82% - Entry Probability: -50.00% - Stop Loss Probability: -100.00% - Take Profit Probability: -50.00% The entry is highly likely to be mitigated over the long term, with the conservative analysis expiring on March 25, 2025. Although the quality is decent, it is not optimal since the evaluation was based solely on the VWAP. The Stop Loss is set at 2 ATR from the last manipulated high (calculated from the median of the data) and is strongly protected by volume, two highs, two order blocks, and the VWAP level. This setup reflects an extremely optimistic scenario for the euro, which does not fully align with recent fundamental news—suggesting that a significant move would be necessary to breach this level. The Take Profit should be seen not as a final objective but rather as a target for partial profit-taking and for moving the stop to breakeven once the objective is reached. 4. Other Comments - The price is currently in a zone that attracts little interest from swing traders. As of February 10, 2025, the price is in a well-developed retracement, which discourages taking shorts lightly. - A long trade might be considered at the manipulated minimum below the structure; however, given the euro’s recent fundamentals and the prevailing long-term and mid-term bearish trend, such a trade should only be executed with carefully adjusted Stop Loss and Take Profit levels. Do you like my analysis? Follow me on social media: @thewayofrichie Let's trade, Richie
Short
by ricardo_ndns
Cooler heads prevail...at least for now | FX ResearchInvestor risk appetite is picking up as the new week gets going. There were some initial jitters in Asia, but cooler heads have prevailed for now. Uncertainty around U.S. tariffs remains a key focus for the market. The latest announcement from Trump includes a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports into the U.S. from all countries. He has also stated that Canada and Mexico have not taken enough action to avoid the previously threatened tariffs. Looking ahead, the economic calendar is relatively quiet today. However, the week will bring key events, including U.S. CPI, retail sales, and Federal Reserve Chair testimony. Today’s notable events include the Bank of Canada Market Participant Survey, U.S. consumer inflation expectations, and an ECB appearance by Christine Lagarde. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
Institutional Market Structure: How to Mark It!2025 ICT Mentorship: Lecture 2 Video Description: 📈 Unlock the Secrets of Institutional Market Structure! Hey traders! Welcome to today’s video, where we lay the foundation for mastering how the market truly moves. Understanding market structure is the key to improving your trading precision and analysis. In this session, we’ll break down the difference between minor swing points and strong swing points—a crucial distinction for objective and accurate structure analysis. You’ll learn how to mark market structure properly, keeping emotions in check and aligning with solid trading psychology. 🎯 What You’ll Gain: ✅ Identify market structure like a pro ✅ Enhance your objectivity and reduce impulsive decisions ✅ Master institutional techniques for improved accuracy If you’re ready to take your trading to the next level and build a strong foundation, hit play and let’s dive in! 💬 Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more game-changing insights. Share your thoughts below—I’d love to hear how this helps your trading journey! Enjoy the video and happy trading! The Architect 🏛️📊
Education
by The_Archi-tect
6
EURUSD 10 February 2025 TRADE IDEAThe EUR/USD pair remains in a long-term downtrend, as indicated by the descending trendlines and the formation of lower highs and lower lows. Recent price action shows a rejection from the 1.0400 - 1.0514 supply zone, suggesting strong bearish momentum. Price is likely to target the next demand zone around 1.0000 - 0.9935, as order flow and smart money concepts (SMC) indicate further downside. A break of structure (BOS) confirms continued bearish intent, while liquidity grabs and fair value gaps (FVGs) suggest price may seek equilibrium near 0.9800 - 0.9400 in the longer term. Fundamentally, the U.S. dollar remains strong due to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, resilient labor market data, and persistent inflation, while the Eurozone faces economic struggles, with the ECB being less aggressive on rate hikes due to slowing growth. Geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East conflicts, add to global risk-off sentiment, further strengthening USD as a safe-haven asset. If price breaks below 1.0000, further declines toward 0.9935 - 0.9800 are expected, while a sustained break above 1.0514 would challenge the bearish outlook.
Short
by karabompesi
What Will Trigger the Next Big Move?The US dollar had a bit of a mixed week, ending a little lower than where it started. But don't worry, it's still showing signs of strength! The market is a bit jumpy right now, with lots of things happening around the world. We've got the US and China still figuring out their trade deal, some interesting US job numbers and everyone's waiting to see what happens with inflation. Let's break down what's going on and what it might mean for FX market this week. US and China: Still Talking, Still Uncertain The US and China are still trying to work out a trade deal, but it's not easy. Every time there's a bit of news, the market reacts. The dollar got stronger at first when the US announced new tariffs on some Chinese goods, but then it weakened again when it seemed like maybe they were getting closer to a deal. This back and forth is making the market a bit nervous, and we might see more ups and downs in the dollar and other currencies until things settle down. US Jobs: A Mixed Bag, But Still Pretty Good The latest US job numbers were a bit confusing. The unemployment rate dropped to 4%, which is great news for the dollar buyers, but the number of new jobs created wasn't as high as everyone expected. However, wages went up more than expected, which means people have more money to spend. This could lead to higher inflation, which the Fed is keeping a close eye on. This week, we'll get more information about the job market with the JOLTs report, which will give us a better idea of how healthy the job market really is. Inflation: The Big Question Mark Inflation is a big deal for the Federal Reserve (Fed), and everyone's waiting to see what happens with the CPI data this week. Inflation has been pretty close to the Fed's 2% target, but it might be starting to go up. If inflation is higher than expected, it might take even longer for FED to deliver the rate cut. This delay in easing could make the dollar stronger. On the other side, If inflation disappoints, the market could react negatively, as the dollar's recent strength is heavily reliant on the expectation of a hawkish Fed. Dollar's Next Move: Which Way Will It Go? The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the dollar value against other currencies, ended the week a little lower. This shows how uncertain things are right now. The DXY had a good run earlier this year, but now it's taking a breather. What happens next depends a lot on the inflation data and whether the US and China can make a deal. If you look at the charts, the DXY is hanging around the 108.00 level. The DXY's ability to maintain support above the 108.00-107.50 zone will be crucial in deciding its near-term trajectory. A sustained break below this zone could signal a shift in momentum, while a hold above would keep the bullish outlook. Euro and Pound: Facing Some Challenges The euro and the pound are both having a bit of a tough time right now. The Eurozone economy is slowing down, and the European Central Bank (ECB) isn't likely to make any big changes to its policies anytime soon. This could make the euro weaker, especially against the dollar. The pound is also facing problems, with the UK economy slowing down and inflation still sticking around. This is called stagflation, and it's not a good situation. We'll get some important data about the UK economy this week, which will give us a better idea of what might happen to the pound. From a technical perspective, both EUR/USD and GBP/USD are looking very bearish. The euro is getting close to the 1.0280 level, and if it breaks below, the market will likely target 1.0200 next. Meanwhile, the pound is already struggling to hold above the 1.2400 support level. A break below could send it down to 1.2250 or even 1.2100, especially if the UK economic data released this week is worse than expected. Swiss Franc: The Wild Card The Swiss franc is a bit of a wild card right now. Inflation in Switzerland is really low, which is worrying the Swiss National Bank (SNB). They've been trying to keep the franc from getting too strong, but it's not easy. They might even have to use negative interest rates, which would be a pretty big deal for the franc and other currencies. Technically, USD/CHF has been trading in a range between 0.9000 and 0.9200 since the beginning of 2025. Within this range, there's a smaller zone with resistance at 0.9130 and support at 0.9050. If the price breaks above 0.9130, we could see the dollar continue higher toward the top of the trading zone, especially since the dollar is strong right now. There's also a chance that we could see a breakout above the whole range this week if the US inflation data is higher than expected. So, make sure you're keeping an eye on the economic calendar! What to Watch This Week This week is going to be another exciting one for the markets! Traders need to keep a close eye on the US-China trade talks, the US inflation data, and the UK GDP data . And don't forget about the Swiss franc! Things could change quickly, so it's important to stay informed and be ready to react. Disclaimer: This article is just for informational purposes and shouldn't be taken as financial advice.
Short
by E8Markets
1
EURUSD - ANALYSIS👀 Observation: Hello, everyone! I hope you're all doing well. Let me share my personal view on EUR/USD with you. Based on the EUR/USD chart, I expect the price to push upward toward the level of 1.03493. After reaching this level, I anticipate it to resume its downward movement. My first target for the drop is 1.01978, followed by the second target at 1.00938. However, if EUR/USD breaks above the 1.04340 level in the 1-hour timeframe, I expect further upward movement toward 1.05673. 📉 Expectation: Bullish Scenario: Break above 1.04340 targeting 1.05673. Bearish Scenario: Drop after hitting 1.03493, targeting 1.01978 and then 1.00938. 💡 Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: 1.03493, 1.04340, 1.05673 Support: 1.01978, 1.00938 💬 What’s your outlook on EUR/USD? Share your thoughts in the comments below! Trade safe
Short
by PouyanTradeFX
2
EUR downtrend under pressureEUR/USD is currently showing a volatile downward trend, with prices hitting key support and resistance areas many times, and no significant directional breakthrough has occurred. From the overall trend, prices have been falling since the high of 1.05230, breaking through multiple key support levels, and are currently hovering around 1.03217, showing weak characteristics. From the perspective of the trend line, the obvious downward trend line suppression has exerted continuous pressure on prices, and the current price has failed to break through the resistance point of 1.03721 above. Resistance level: In the short term, 1.03721 is the current important resistance level, and prices need to break through this position to further open upside space. If this point is stable, it may test the higher 1.04200 area. Support level: The key support level below is around 1.02299, which is the previous low and an area where bulls may exert their strength. If this support is broken, the downward space will be further opened, possibly pointing to 1.01500. Pullback test: The current exchange rate may rebound and test the 1.03721 line. If it fails to break through this resistance, it may be blocked and fall back, continuing the downward trend. Continuation of decline: If the price falls directly and falls below the 1.03000 area, it will confirm the dominance of shorts, and the target is 1.02299 or even lower. Operation suggestions: If the price touches the 1.03721 resistance level and there are obvious signs of pressure, you can try short-term short orders, with the target below 1.03000 and the stop loss set above 1.04000. If the price falls back to 1.02299 and stabilizes, you can consider long orders, with the target at 1.03200, and the stop loss is recommended to be set below 1.02000. The current EUR/USD trend is still dominated by oscillating downwards. It is necessary to pay attention to the breakthrough of key points to determine the next direction and maintain a flexible operation strategy.
Short
by RonPeter_Trading
1
EUR/USD : First SELL, then BUY! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the 3-day EUR/USD chart, we can see that, as expected, the price has resumed its correction and is currently trading around 1.03. I still anticipate further downside movement in this range. The key demand zones are 1.02, 1.005, and 0.99. So, the strategy remains: first, look for SELL opportunities, and then wait for a solid BUY trigger at these levels! 🚀 Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Short
by ArmanShabanTrading
11
EURUSD 1H Death Cross waiting for the perfect Sell.The EURUSD pair completed a 1H Death Cross on today's opening, the first such formation since January 30. Given that we are currently within a Channel Down pattern similar to January's Death Cross, we expect the current formation to follow the trend of the former. After a short-term rebound above the 1H MA200 (orange trend-line), the previous Channel Down declined aggressively to the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. This gives us a new bearish target at 1.01500. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot