EURUSD: Correction to 1D MA50 possible.EURUSD is vastly overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 74.017, MACD = 0.011, ADX = 27.363) having completed a +15.64% rise from the February 3rd 2025 Low. That was a technical HL bottom on the 3 year Channel Up and the same amount of price increase was seen on its first bullish wave. When it peaked it made three successive highs over a 6 month period (Feb-July 2023) before starting a long term bearish sentiment creation. For now, we can expect at least a 1D MA50 test on the short-term (TP = 1.15000).
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EURUSDTDTM trade ideas
EURUSD 15M BEAR LOOKS LIKE THERE READY TO TAKE CONTROLWe have this beautiful CHOCH in small time frame, and with the help of SUPPLY ZONE 15M makes no brainer to go for SELL
This can be very big DUMP
As usual win lost i will update here
Just remember is not about how many time you lost is how big you get when you win (RISK REWARD NEEDS TO BE ON POINT)
Good luck
EURUSD – A Potentially Busy Day Ahead For TradersThis morning, EURUSD recorded a near 4 year high at 1.1807, the beneficiary of improving risk sentiment, uncertainty about the ECB’s next interest rate move, and concerns about what President Trump’s tax cut bill, that is progressing through the Senate currently, could mean for the sustainability of the US debt burden moving forward.
Now, with the FX quarter end rebalancing completed yesterday, it is possible to look forward to the upcoming scheduled events for today that could influence where EURUSD moves next.
First up, at 1000 BST this morning, traders receive the latest preliminary inflation (HICP) update for the Eurozone. The outcome of this release could provide further insight into whether the current market expectation for one more ECB rate cut in 2025 is possible, or if they may be on hold for the foreseeable future.
Next up, starting at 1430 BST is a panel discussion attended by ECB President Lagarde, Fed Chairman Powell, BoE Governor Bailey and BoJ Governor Ueda at the ECB’s Central Bank Forum in Portugal. The topic, “adapting to change: macroeconomic shifts and policy responses”. The comments of these central bank heads on inflation, interest rates, tariffs and economic growth could be important for the direction of all the major G7 FX pairs.
Then, at 1500 BST the ISM Manufacturing PMI survey is due for release. While US manufacturing activity is still expected to languish in contraction territory, below 50, traders will be focused on whether there has been any improvement in the headline print, and what the prices paid component could indicate for the direction of US inflation across the remainder of 2025.
These events, when taken with real time updates from President Trump and members of this administration on his tax bill, trade deals and flexibility of the July 9th tariff deadline, sets today up as a potentially volatile period for EURUSD trading.
Technical Update: Assessing the Recent Trend
From a technical perspective, a positive pattern of higher highs and higher lows remains in the EURUSD price and as the chart below shows, Tuesday has seen another new recovery high posted at 1.1807.
While much will continue to depend on market sentiment and price trends, it might be argued that the posting of this new price high for the current upside move, suggests a further phase of strength is still possible.
However, what are the levels traders may now be watching to gauge where the next directional price risks might lay over coming sessions?
Potential Support Levels:
Since posting the June 19th session low at 1.1446, EURUSD has rallied by over 3.00% (1.1446 to 1.1807) and while this doesn’t mean price weakness is necessarily on the cards, traders might become concerned a price correction is due after such a strong advance.
As the chart above shows, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of latest price strength, currently stands at 1.1668. This can mark a potential first support focus, after the recent move higher.
Closing breaks under 1.1668, while not a guarantee of further price declines, may then lead to a deeper phase of weakness towards 1.1583, which is equal to the 61.8% retracement level.
Potential Resistance Levels:
As a result of latest strength, EURUSD has traded to levels last seen in mid-September 2021 and to gauge the next potential resistance levels, we switch to the longer term weekly chart shown below.
If further price strength still emerges from current levels, traders may now be focused on 1.1909, the August 2021 failure high, as the next possible resistance level.
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Bearish drop?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could drop to the 1st support which acts as a pullback support that is slightly below the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Pivot: 1.1768
1st Support: 1.1700
1st Resistance: 1.1816
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EURUSD: overboughtFriday was a non-working day in the US, as the country was celebrating Independence Day. The most important weekly macro data was related to US jobs data. At the start of the week JOLTs job openings in May were posted with a figure of 7.769M, significantly higher from market estimate of 7,3M. The next day the NFPs and Unemployment rate was published. As per data, the unemployment rate dropped by 0,1pp to the level of 4,1%, which missed market expectations of 4,2%. The Non-farm payrolls in June added 147K new jobs, again better from forecasted 110K. The average hourly earnings were higher by 0,2% in June, or 3,7% on a yearly basis, modestly below the forecasted 3,9%. Other weekly macro data including ISM Manufacturing PMI in June reached 49,0 a bit higher from estimated 48,8. The ISM Services PMI in June was standing at 50,8 in line with market estimates.
Retail Sales in Germany dropped by an additional -1,6% in May, bringing the indicator to the level of +1,6% on a yearly basis. Both figures were lower from the market estimate of +0,5% for May and +3,3% for the year. Inflation rate in Germany preliminary in June was 2% a bit lower from forecasted 2,2%. Inflation for the month was standing at 0%. Preliminary inflation data for the Euro Zone in June was 0,3% for the month and 2% for the year. EuroZone core inflation was standing at 2,3% in June, exactly in line with market estimates. The unemployment rate in the Euro Zone in May was modestly increased by 0,1pp to the level of 6,3%, while the market was expecting to remain flat at 6,2%.
The US Dollar continued its decline against the euro during the previous week. The highest weekly level was at 1,1825, but the currency pair closed the week at 1,1776. The RSI reached the level of 73, signalling a clear overbought market side, increasing the probability of a short term reversal in the coming period. The MA50 continues to diverge from MA200, indicating low probability of a potential cross in the future period.
The eurusd daily chart is showing that the currency pair had formed a sort of channel with an uptrend during the past period. If lows from end of February, mid March and end of March are connected, the indication for a next potential level of eurusd might be somewhere above the 1,16 level. The 1,1620 was the highest level achieved in mid July this year, which aligns well with the previous indication. Indicators are currently showing higher probability of a short term reversal. The week ahead is not bringing any currently significant news with respect to the US economy, in which sense, it could be expected that the market will slow down a bit during the week. Short reversal is quite possible, where the level of 1,1620 might be shortly tested. Just in case that the market decides to continue movement toward the higher grounds, then 1,18 resistance will be tested, before the market continues its road toward the 1,19 level.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: Industrial Production in May in Germany, Retail Sales in the Euro Zone for May, Balance of Trade in Germany in May, Inflation rate final for May in Germany,
USD: FOMC Meeting minutes.
EURUSD: Support & Resistance Analysis for Next Week 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Here is my latest structure analysis
and important supports & resistances for EURUSD for next week.
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
EURUSD: Potential Trend Reversal BrewingEURUSD is exhibiting clear signs of a potential trend reversal, having recently broken its previous Higher Low and subsequently establishing a sequence of Lower Highs and Lower Lows. This shift in market structure from bullish to bearish is a strong indicator of weakening upside momentum. Further confirming this outlook, the RSI is displaying a notable bearish divergence, where price registers higher highs while the RSI prints lower highs, signaling diminishing bullish strength at these elevated price levels. Considering this confluence of technical factors, a potential short setup is present.
EurUsd - This is the deadly breakout!EurUsd - FX:EURUSD - is about to fly:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻)
EurUsd has been rallying about +15% over the past couple of months. Additionally the breakout at the current resistance trendline is about to be confirmed. Subsequently EurUsd is setting up for another major move higher, which will be painful for all European traders.
Levels to watch: $1.23, $1.11
Keep your long term vision🙏🙏
Philip (BasicTrading)
EURUSD - Where next?Looking at EURUSD
I still feel like we are due some sort of deeper retracement to the downside considering how bullish the 4H and Daily time frame have been in recent times.
Although the market does not care how I feel in all honesty haha. I will play the short term short until the 15min orderflow switches bullish once again.
The expansion that is currently happing right now is very interesting and makes a good watch to see what we will do come market open as we are engineering liquidity for both a buy and sell with both POI's looking primed for entries.
Will be keeping a close and keen eye on EURUSD when the market opens
Any questions feel free to give me a message
EURUSD Major event Short Weekly ChartWe may be on the verge of a major event in the forex market.
The EUR/USD is approaching its 800-week moving average, a level that historically marks significant turning points.
A sharp reversal is likely, with an initial target at the 600-week moving average, and potentially a much deeper decline beyond that.
EURUSD Sell signal at the top of the Channel Up.Last time we analyzed the EURUSD pair (June 23, see chart below) we gave a strong buy signals at the bottom of the 1.5-month Channel Up:
The price is almost near our Target but since it's been consolidating for so many 4H candles on the pattern's top, it is better to take the good profit and turn bearish.
The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level has been a solid target for the previous two Bearish Legs, but since the last one bottomed just above it on the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), we will place the Target a little higher this time also at 1.16100.
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EURUSD is in a Downside DirectionHello Traders
In This Chart EURUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today EURUSD analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (EURUSD market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on EURUSD Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
DeGRAM | EURUSD fixed under the resistance level📊 Technical Analysis
● Price is stalling against the upper band of a three-month rising channel (≈ 1.1790) after producing a false break and quick rejection—marking a potential bull-trap at trend resistance.
● Bearish divergence on the 4 h RSI and the first lower-high inside a micro rising wedge suggest momentum is fading; a slide through 1.1745 should trigger profit-taking toward the mid-channel support at 1.1595.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Solid US payrolls and a hawkish tone in FOMC minutes lift two-year yields, reviving the dollar bid, while post-election coalition wrangling in France keeps a risk premium on the euro.
✨ Summary
Sell 1.1785 ± 15 pips; break below 1.1745 targets 1.1595. Invalidate on a 4 h close above 1.1810.
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EURUSD: Strong Bearish Sentiment! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break below the current local range around 1.17775 will confirm the new direction downwards with the target being the next key level of 1.17696.and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
EURUSD INTRADAY TRADE 30PIPS SHORT LIVE TRADE EUR/USD eases below 1.1800 ahead of Eurozone inflation data
EUR/USD is retreating below 1.1800 in the European morning on Tuesday. The pair faces headwinds from a pause in the US Dollar downtrend. Traders move on the sidelines ahead of the Eurozone prelim inflation data and central bank talks due later in the day.