Elliott Wave Analysis: Potential Correction AheadThe overarching 5-wave structure from January 9, 2025, to today is nearing completion. We are currently in Wave 5, with the subordinate Wave 3 in progress. Within this, the sub-subordinate Wave 5 is just starting. Once the overarching Wave 5 concludes, expect a multi-week correction. The correction is projected to target levels between 1.1173 and 1.075.
EURUSDTDTM trade ideas
EURUSD Long, 02 JulyAsia Fill Trade
Despite being inside a Daily Bearish OB, this trade is purely an Asia fill setup, so HTF bias is not heavily weighted here.
We had clear 1m BOS and retrace into the 1m OB, right inside a 15m Decisional POI, backed by inverted hammer rejections on both EU and DXY.
📉 Entry: 1m OB after BOS
📊 Confluence: DXY reacting from 15m POI + Asia
🎯 TP: Asia Low (1:3 RR)
🛡️ BE: 1.5RR or LTF BOS continuation
Clean execution based on intraday logic & structure, with correlation as additional confidence.
Eurozone Economy and ECB Policy:Eurozone Economy and ECB Policy: Between Price Stability and Currency Tension
The Eurozone’s latest data points to a relatively stable and controlled macroeconomic environment, with a key milestone just reached:
📊 June inflation hit 2.0%, aligning precisely with the ECB’s long-term target.
Growth remains moderate but positive, and unemployment is stable. From a classical policy perspective, this setup would typically justify further interest rate cuts to stimulate demand and support economic expansion.
But there’s a growing complication:
The euro has strengthened significantly in recent weeks, driven not just by economic fundamentals but also by capital inflows and a weakening U.S. dollar. A stronger euro, while often seen as a sign of investor confidence, can hurt exports, reduce competitiveness, and dampen inflation further — potentially becoming a drag on recovery.
As a result, the ECB finds itself in a policy dilemma:
Cutting rates could stimulate growth, but risk driving the euro even higher.
Slowing down or pausing rate cuts could stabilize the currency, but may stall economic momentum.
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🔁 Reflexivity at Work
This dynamic highlights George Soros' theory of reflexivity — where market perceptions shape fundamentals, and those fundamentals in turn reshape perceptions.
> “Market prices are always distorted by prevailing biases.”
— George Soros
The current rally in the euro may not reflect fundamentals alone. If the move exceeds investor expectations, it could trigger emotional reactions, abrupt capital shifts, or even corrections — despite a solid economic base.
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⚠️ Key Takeaways
June inflation at 2.0% gives ECB a clean slate to act — but with caution.
Currency appreciation can delay or distort the impact of monetary easing.
Market reflexivity may accelerate reactions beyond what data alone would justify.
Policy credibility now hinges not just on data, but on timing and communication.
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In today’s market, price and psychology move together. Stability on paper doesn't always mean stability in execution.
EUR/USD BEST PLACE TO SELL FROM|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
EUR/USD pair is trading in a local downtrend which know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is red. On the 17H timeframe the pair is going up. The pair is overbought because the price is close to the upper band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to sell the pair with the upper BB line acting as resistance. The next target is 1.160 area.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
EUR USD Elliott Wave AnalysisHello friends
We are witnessing the formation of a complete Elliott wave pattern on the EURUSD chart. These waves from 1 to 5 are quite clear and you can even count their subwaves. Now wave 5 is completing . With the breakdown of the trend line drawn below and a pullback to it, we can expect the price to fall to the specified support. The first support is 1.12000and then 1.10000.
Good luck and be profitable.
EURUSD A Fall Expected! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for EURUSD is below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1.1784
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 1.1667
My Stop Loss - 1.1853
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURUSD Short Projections for Big Beautiful BillI think we may hit a resistance point soon and drop to around 1.16 or lower. Based on the fundamentals of the Big Beautiful Bill. I think this will be short term and the USD may lose strength.
It will have large economic impact, I think this will happen in short term.
FX:EURUSD
TVC:DXY
The Day Ahead Major Economic Data:
US:
ISM Manufacturing (June) and JOLTS job openings (May) – Key for Fed rate cut outlook.
Construction spending and vehicle sales – Insight into economic strength.
Dallas Fed services – Regional business sentiment check.
China:
Caixin Manufacturing PMI (June) – Watch for signs of continued slowdown.
Japan:
Tankan Survey (Q2) – Key business sentiment data; may influence BoJ policy.
Eurozone:
June CPI (inflation) – Crucial for ECB’s rate path.
Germany unemployment, Italy PMI, budget, and car sales – Regional economic health indicators.
Central Bank Highlights:
ECB Sintra Forum Panel:
Features Powell (Fed), Lagarde (ECB), Ueda (BoJ), Bailey (BoE).
Markets will watch for any policy shift signals or divergence in rate outlooks.
Other ECB Speakers:
Guindos, Schnabel, Elderson – may give more hints on inflation and rate moves.
ECB Consumer Survey:
Offers insight into household inflation expectations.
Market View:
US data may push Fed closer to rate cuts if weak.
Eurozone inflation will guide ECB stance.
China’s PMI is a global growth signal.
Central bank talks at Sintra are key for global rate outlook.
Overall:
Markets are on edge awaiting clarity on growth, inflation, and rate paths. Expect possible moves in FX, yields, and equities depending on the data and central bank tone.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
EURUSD – Rounded Top Signals Bearish Reversal The EURUSD pair is showing clear signs of weakness after forming a rounded top pattern near the 1.18100 resistance zone. Price has broken out of a short-term sideways range and may retest the FVG area near 1.17500 before continuing its downward move.
If the support at 1.17118 is breached, EURUSD could head toward the 1.16200 level – a key demand zone on the chart. The bearish momentum is being reinforced by recent news:
Yesterday: U.S. employment data exceeded expectations, strengthening the USD.
Today: The euro is under pressure due to EU recession concerns and political instability in France.
Coming up: The FOMC minutes may continue to reflect a hawkish stance, which could further weigh on EURUSD.
EURUSD Expected Growth! BUY!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the EURUSD next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 1.1774
Bias -Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 1.1792
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Be careful with EURUSDEURUSD is holding its bullish trend and hovering around 1,1800.
Tomorrow, U.S. employment data is due.
It will be released on Thursday instead of Friday, as Friday is a holiday.
At the current levels, there’s no favorable risk-reward for new entries.
Watch for a pullback and wait for the right moment.
EURUSD: Target Is Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 1.18033 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 1.18161 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
#AN015: TRUMP-PUTIN Phone Call and July 4th, Markets Closed
In an unexpected phone call on the sidelines of the American Independence Day, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump – in the midst of the campaign for his potential re-election – had a confidential conversation that quickly captured the attention of global markets, even on a day when Wall Street was closed.
Hello, I am Trader Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about the latest news of these hours. I would like to thank in advance our Official Broker Partner PEPPERSTONE for the support in creating this article.
📉 Wall Street closed, but Forex is always open
While the US stock markets remain closed for the July 4th holiday, the currency market – by its nature decentralized and global – never stops completely. And it is precisely in these moments of low liquidity that geopolitical moves can have an amplified impact.
☎️ What did Putin and Trump say to each other?
Official sources speak of a “cordial discussion” on global security issues, Ukraine, and the future of US-Russia energy relations. However, according to leaks from Moscow, Putin has expressed openness to a new energy negotiation in the event of Trump’s return to the White House.
Translated into Forex language? This could mean:
Lower geopolitical risk on USD in the long term (Trump is seen as more in favor of dialogue with Moscow)
Pressure on Euro if negotiations with Russia are diverted to a Washington-Moscow axis
Temporary strength of RUB in case of glimmers of easing of energy sanctions
📊 Impact on key currency crosses
Comparing the post-news movements on some crosses:
USD/RUB: flat for now, but ready to jump over the weekend if confirmations arrive
EUR/USD: latent weakness, also due to the decline in ISM and the resilience of European inflation
USD/JPY: stable, but with pro-dollar sentiment in the background (Trump is perceived as economically dovish)
⏱️ What to expect in the next 24 hours?
With liquidity recovering already since tonight (Tokyo), markets could start to price in the geopolitical narrative of Trump's return. This scenario favors:
USD slightly stronger in the short term
Watch out for false breakouts on low volatility (typical of July 4th)
Euro Dollar, institutions are still bullish ($1.20 this summer?)There's one constant on the floating exchange market (Forex) this year, the US dollar is by far the weakest currency. It's the same scenario as the first months of Donald Trump's first term in office in 2017 repeating itself. The US President's stated aim is to give US exporters a competitive exchange rate.
The Euro exchange rate is also being supported higher by a combination of fundamental factors, notably a relative catch-up of European assets against US stock market assets. It is the sum of these fundamentals that is enabling a well-constructed uptrend in the EUR/USD rate on FX this year 2025. A new monthly technical close was recorded on the evening of Monday June 30, and with technical resistances breached, it looks as if the euro-dollar rate is on course to reach $1.20 this summer.
1) A new monthly technical close (June technical close) continues to support the euro-dollar's annual uptrend
The June technical close has been in place for the euro-dollar since the start of the week, providing further bullish chart confirmation. The euro-dollar price has confirmed that it has broken through a descending resistance line in place since the 2008 financial crisis. The price is converging with its momentum (represented here by the RSI and LMACD technical indicators) and the next natural technical target lies at $1.20. This is a technical target for the summer, bearing in mind that in the short term, a move back towards support at $1.15 and $1.17 remains possible.
The chart below shows monthly Japanese candlesticks for the EUR/USD rate, with the Ichimoku, RSI and LMACD technical indicators
2) Institutional traders are still bullish on the euro-dollar rate, according to the CFTC's COT report
What's most interesting about the overall analytical approach is the convergence between technical analysis signals and institutional positioning signals on the EUR/USD rate.
According to the CFTC's COT (Commitment Of Traders) report, institutional traders (hedge funds + asset managers) became net buyers of the euro dollar at the start of 2025, and weekly updates of this positioning data show that their buying exposure is increasing as the EUR/USD price rises. This bullish convergence between chartism and institutional investor positioning lends credibility to a scenario that would see the euro dollar reach resistance at $1.20 this summer. This market view would be invalidated if support at $1.14 were broken.
The two charts below show institutional traders' positions on Euro Dollar futures. Institutional traders were predominantly bullish at the start of the year, and month after month, they are increasing their buying exposure.
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Bullish rise?The Fiber (EUR/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.1578
1st Support: 1.1278
1st Resistance: 1.1909
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EURUSD heads towards resistance, short-term reversal expectedEURUSD has been in a strong uptrend, and we’re currently observing price action is reaching a notable resistance zone. I am watching for a reversal here as marked on my chart, not expecting a major move, but rather a short-term rejection with a downside target at around 1.13670 , which also aligns with the POC.
This is where it can become a decision point, either price finds support and bounces, or it breaks below, and that’s when we might see the move start to extend lower.
If we get a decisive breakdown through that ascending trendline, my next area of interest is marked as TP2. From there we can expect either potential accumulation or another reaction, depending on broader market sentiment at the time.
That said, we're navigating a complex backdrop currently:
The EU macro environment is under pressure, as weak economic data from Europe is contributing to cautious sentiment around the euro.
Meanwhile, a sustained USD bid continues, supported by stronger U.S. growth expectations, favorable yields, and persistent global demand. This further weighs on EURUSD.
Adding to the uncertainty, escalating tensions between Israel and Iran have rattled markets this week. This geopolitical risk could be pushing oil prices higher:
It’s important to note that if price convincingly rejects here and loses structure, especially with high volume and obvious bullish structure, this setup would become invalid. In that case, I would reassess and adapt
Are Technical Charts Fully Bullish on Euro's Rebound OverheatingThe EUR/USD exchange rate is consolidating at high levels, posting gains for the seventh consecutive trading day. The pair briefly approached the three-year high of 1.1744 in intraday trading, accumulating a roughly 2% weekly gain so far. This rally is primarily driven by intensified expectations of U.S. rate cuts and temporary easing of geopolitical tensions.
In terms of technical indicators, the MACD's DIFF and DEA lines continue to rise, with the red histogram expanding again, demonstrating "bullish volume expansion" and showing no signs of exhaustion in the technical rebound. The RSI stands at 70.39, nearing overbought territory but without forming a top divergence, suggesting remaining upside potential.
The current price structure indicates the pair is approaching the key resistance of 1.1744. Analysts believe an effective breakout above this level would open the door to the upside target of 1.1810-1.1850. In case of a pullback due to resistance, the initial support lies at 1.1630, corresponding to the previous dense trading zone and short-term moving average support.
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