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EUR/USD_TODTOM - SWAP EUR/USD

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EURUSDTDTM trade ideas

eurusd sell setupFair Value Gap (FVG) - Highlighted in Orange: This is an imbalance zone where price moved quickly without much trading. It acts as a potential supply zone where institutions may have unfilled sell orders. Your sell is anticipated after price returns to fill the FVG. Market Structure Break (BMS): Shown by the horizontal black arrow. Price broke the previous low, confirming a bearish structure shift. Indicates momentum shifting to the downside. Entry & Stop Loss: Entry: Just inside or after the FVG gets tapped. Stop Loss: Above the FVG and the recent swing high (around 1.17680). Risk-Reward: Favorable, around 1:3.34 (shown on chart). Target (Take Profit): Down near 1.17301. This is likely based on a previous low, liquidity pool, or demand zone. Price Action Confirmation: Price impulsively dropped into the gray zone (likely previous demand or support). You're expecting a pullback into the FVG before continuation downward. ✅ Why this Sell Setup Makes Sense (SMC Logic): Break of Structure (BOS): Signals bearish intent. FVG = Premium Zone (Sell Area): Fills imbalance and provides institutional entry. Risk-Reward Ratio: Excellent, over 3:1. Entry is Smart Money Based: You're not selling blindly but waiting for a retracement to a logical supply zone.
Short
by fortunemakori1
EURUSD Long, 02 JulyAsia Fill Trade Despite being inside a Daily Bearish OB, this trade is purely an Asia fill setup, so HTF bias is not heavily weighted here. We had clear 1m BOS and retrace into the 1m OB, right inside a 15m Decisional POI, backed by inverted hammer rejections on both EU and DXY. 📉 Entry: 1m OB after BOS 📊 Confluence: DXY reacting from 15m POI + Asia 🎯 TP: Asia Low (1:3 RR) 🛡️ BE: 1.5RR or LTF BOS continuation Clean execution based on intraday logic & structure, with correlation as additional confidence.
Long
by sTax11
Eurozone Economy and ECB Policy:Eurozone Economy and ECB Policy: Between Price Stability and Currency Tension The Eurozone’s latest data points to a relatively stable and controlled macroeconomic environment, with a key milestone just reached: 📊 June inflation hit 2.0%, aligning precisely with the ECB’s long-term target. Growth remains moderate but positive, and unemployment is stable. From a classical policy perspective, this setup would typically justify further interest rate cuts to stimulate demand and support economic expansion. But there’s a growing complication: The euro has strengthened significantly in recent weeks, driven not just by economic fundamentals but also by capital inflows and a weakening U.S. dollar. A stronger euro, while often seen as a sign of investor confidence, can hurt exports, reduce competitiveness, and dampen inflation further — potentially becoming a drag on recovery. As a result, the ECB finds itself in a policy dilemma: Cutting rates could stimulate growth, but risk driving the euro even higher. Slowing down or pausing rate cuts could stabilize the currency, but may stall economic momentum. --- 🔁 Reflexivity at Work This dynamic highlights George Soros' theory of reflexivity — where market perceptions shape fundamentals, and those fundamentals in turn reshape perceptions. > “Market prices are always distorted by prevailing biases.” — George Soros The current rally in the euro may not reflect fundamentals alone. If the move exceeds investor expectations, it could trigger emotional reactions, abrupt capital shifts, or even corrections — despite a solid economic base. --- ⚠️ Key Takeaways June inflation at 2.0% gives ECB a clean slate to act — but with caution. Currency appreciation can delay or distort the impact of monetary easing. Market reflexivity may accelerate reactions beyond what data alone would justify. Policy credibility now hinges not just on data, but on timing and communication. --- In today’s market, price and psychology move together. Stability on paper doesn't always mean stability in execution.
by mehrshad31
EUR/USD BEST PLACE TO SELL FROM|SHORT Hello, Friends! EUR/USD pair is trading in a local downtrend which know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is red. On the 17H timeframe the pair is going up. The pair is overbought because the price is close to the upper band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to sell the pair with the upper BB line acting as resistance. The next target is 1.160 area. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Short
by EliteTradingSignals
1
EURUSD - Eur bull run over??Completed Elliott Wave Structure: • The chart displays a full 5-wave impulsive Elliott Wave count to the upside, labeled (1) through (5), completing a wave C. • This suggests the end of a corrective ABC pattern, which often marks the end of a bullish retracement or rally within a larger downtrend. Price Reaches Resistance Zone: • The price reaches a previous high/resistance area marked by the top of the wedge and completes the fifth wave. • This is typically where institutional traders may look to take profits or enter short positions. Risk-Reward Set Up Suggests Short Bias: • The chart includes a bearish risk-reward trade setup, indicating the trader expects a decline. • The stop loss is placed slightly above the peak of wave 5, and the take profit is much lower, giving a favorable risk-to-reward ratio in anticipation of a significant move down. Structure Confluence: • The top of wave (5) aligns with the trendline resistance from the rising wedge formation, adding technical confluence to the bearish outlook. ⸻ Conclusion With a completed Elliott Wave count, bearish chart pattern (rising wedge), technical resistance, and a well-defined short setup, the chart strongly suggests that a major top may be in place for EUR/USD, and a downside move is likely to follow.
Short
by m0bh4y4t
EURUSD A Fall Expected! SELL! My dear subscribers, My technical analysis for EURUSD is below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1.1784 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 1.1667 My Stop Loss - 1.1853 About Used Indicators: By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
1
The Day Ahead Major Economic Data: US: ISM Manufacturing (June) and JOLTS job openings (May) – Key for Fed rate cut outlook. Construction spending and vehicle sales – Insight into economic strength. Dallas Fed services – Regional business sentiment check. China: Caixin Manufacturing PMI (June) – Watch for signs of continued slowdown. Japan: Tankan Survey (Q2) – Key business sentiment data; may influence BoJ policy. Eurozone: June CPI (inflation) – Crucial for ECB’s rate path. Germany unemployment, Italy PMI, budget, and car sales – Regional economic health indicators. Central Bank Highlights: ECB Sintra Forum Panel: Features Powell (Fed), Lagarde (ECB), Ueda (BoJ), Bailey (BoE). Markets will watch for any policy shift signals or divergence in rate outlooks. Other ECB Speakers: Guindos, Schnabel, Elderson – may give more hints on inflation and rate moves. ECB Consumer Survey: Offers insight into household inflation expectations. Market View: US data may push Fed closer to rate cuts if weak. Eurozone inflation will guide ECB stance. China’s PMI is a global growth signal. Central bank talks at Sintra are key for global rate outlook. Overall: Markets are on edge awaiting clarity on growth, inflation, and rate paths. Expect possible moves in FX, yields, and equities depending on the data and central bank tone. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
German CPI flatlines, eurozone CPI nextThe euro is up for an eighth consecutive day and has gained 2.4% during that time. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1738, up 0.36% on the day. German inflation data on Monday pointed to a weakening German economy. The CPI report indicated that the deflationary process slowly continues. The inflation rate for June came in at 0% m/m, down from 0.1% in May and below the consensus of 0.2%. Annually, inflation dropped to 2.0% from 2.1% and below the consensus of 2.1%. The eurozone releases its CPI report on Tuesday. Inflation has been dropping in small increments and has now fallen to the European Central Bank's inflation target of 2%. The ECB cut the deposit rate to 2.0% earlier in June and meets next in July. Although eurozone inflation is largely contained, there are concerns about the impact that US tariffs and counter-tariffs by US trading partners could have on the inflation picture. The ECB is likely to maintain rates in July but could lower rates in September if disinflation continues. The US continues to show signs that the economy is slowing down. Last week, GDP was revised downwards to -0.5% in the first quarter. This was followed by US consumer spending for May (PCE) which posted a 0.1% decline, following a 0.2% gain in April and shy of the consensus of 0.1%. This was the first contraction since January. If economic data continues to head lower, pressure will increase on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which isn't expected before the September meeting. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.1755. Above, there is resistance at 1.1791 1.1718 and 1.1682 are the next support levels
by OANDA
EURUSD – Rounded Top Signals Bearish Reversal The EURUSD pair is showing clear signs of weakness after forming a rounded top pattern near the 1.18100 resistance zone. Price has broken out of a short-term sideways range and may retest the FVG area near 1.17500 before continuing its downward move. If the support at 1.17118 is breached, EURUSD could head toward the 1.16200 level – a key demand zone on the chart. The bearish momentum is being reinforced by recent news: Yesterday: U.S. employment data exceeded expectations, strengthening the USD. Today: The euro is under pressure due to EU recession concerns and political instability in France. Coming up: The FOMC minutes may continue to reflect a hawkish stance, which could further weigh on EURUSD.
Short
by Rocky_trade_
EURUSD Expected Growth! BUY! My dear followers, This is my opinion on the EURUSD next move: The asset is approaching an important pivot point 1.1774 Bias -Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market. Goal - 1.1792 About Used Indicators: For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
#AN015: TRUMP-PUTIN Phone Call and July 4th, Markets Closed In an unexpected phone call on the sidelines of the American Independence Day, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump – in the midst of the campaign for his potential re-election – had a confidential conversation that quickly captured the attention of global markets, even on a day when Wall Street was closed. Hello, I am Trader Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about the latest news of these hours. I would like to thank in advance our Official Broker Partner PEPPERSTONE for the support in creating this article. 📉 Wall Street closed, but Forex is always open While the US stock markets remain closed for the July 4th holiday, the currency market – by its nature decentralized and global – never stops completely. And it is precisely in these moments of low liquidity that geopolitical moves can have an amplified impact. ☎️ What did Putin and Trump say to each other? Official sources speak of a “cordial discussion” on global security issues, Ukraine, and the future of US-Russia energy relations. However, according to leaks from Moscow, Putin has expressed openness to a new energy negotiation in the event of Trump’s return to the White House. Translated into Forex language? This could mean: Lower geopolitical risk on USD in the long term (Trump is seen as more in favor of dialogue with Moscow) Pressure on Euro if negotiations with Russia are diverted to a Washington-Moscow axis Temporary strength of RUB in case of glimmers of easing of energy sanctions 📊 Impact on key currency crosses Comparing the post-news movements on some crosses: USD/RUB: flat for now, but ready to jump over the weekend if confirmations arrive EUR/USD: latent weakness, also due to the decline in ISM and the resilience of European inflation USD/JPY: stable, but with pro-dollar sentiment in the background (Trump is perceived as economically dovish) ⏱️ What to expect in the next 24 hours? With liquidity recovering already since tonight (Tokyo), markets could start to price in the geopolitical narrative of Trump's return. This scenario favors: USD slightly stronger in the short term Watch out for false breakouts on low volatility (typical of July 4th)
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
Euro Dollar, institutions are still bullish ($1.20 this summer?)There's one constant on the floating exchange market (Forex) this year, the US dollar is by far the weakest currency. It's the same scenario as the first months of Donald Trump's first term in office in 2017 repeating itself. The US President's stated aim is to give US exporters a competitive exchange rate. The Euro exchange rate is also being supported higher by a combination of fundamental factors, notably a relative catch-up of European assets against US stock market assets. It is the sum of these fundamentals that is enabling a well-constructed uptrend in the EUR/USD rate on FX this year 2025. A new monthly technical close was recorded on the evening of Monday June 30, and with technical resistances breached, it looks as if the euro-dollar rate is on course to reach $1.20 this summer. 1) A new monthly technical close (June technical close) continues to support the euro-dollar's annual uptrend The June technical close has been in place for the euro-dollar since the start of the week, providing further bullish chart confirmation. The euro-dollar price has confirmed that it has broken through a descending resistance line in place since the 2008 financial crisis. The price is converging with its momentum (represented here by the RSI and LMACD technical indicators) and the next natural technical target lies at $1.20. This is a technical target for the summer, bearing in mind that in the short term, a move back towards support at $1.15 and $1.17 remains possible. The chart below shows monthly Japanese candlesticks for the EUR/USD rate, with the Ichimoku, RSI and LMACD technical indicators 2) Institutional traders are still bullish on the euro-dollar rate, according to the CFTC's COT report What's most interesting about the overall analytical approach is the convergence between technical analysis signals and institutional positioning signals on the EUR/USD rate. According to the CFTC's COT (Commitment Of Traders) report, institutional traders (hedge funds + asset managers) became net buyers of the euro dollar at the start of 2025, and weekly updates of this positioning data show that their buying exposure is increasing as the EUR/USD price rises. This bullish convergence between chartism and institutional investor positioning lends credibility to a scenario that would see the euro dollar reach resistance at $1.20 this summer. This market view would be invalidated if support at $1.14 were broken. The two charts below show institutional traders' positions on Euro Dollar futures. Institutional traders were predominantly bullish at the start of the year, and month after month, they are increasing their buying exposure. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. 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