Euro jumps as Eurozone core CPI risesThe euro is sharply higher on Monday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1250, up 0.79% on the day.
Eurozone headline inflation was confirmed at 2.2% y/y and 0.6% m/m in April, unchanged from the preliminary estimates. The core rate was also confirmed at 2.7% y/y and 1% m/m. Services inflation rose to 3.9% from 3.5%.
The European Central Bank will be pleased that inflation was unchanged in the final April release but remains concerned about services inflation, which remains persistently high. The ECB trimmed its key rate by a quarter point to 2.25% last month and meets next on June 5. The markets have priced in another rate cut, as the ECB looks to take advantage of stable inflation and lower rates in order to boost economic growth.
The ECB can be expected to be cautious with its rate path and continue its data-driven approach. There is much uncertainty surrounding President Trump's tariffs, which has made it difficult for the ECB to make inflation and growth projections. What is clear is that eurozone growth has taken a hit from the tariffs and the outlook and the outllook for global growth has been revised downwards. The damage from the tariffs could be mitigated if the US and China can reach an agreement which removes the tariffs betweeen them.
The uncertainty surrounding US trade policy has also pushed the Federal Reserve into a wait-and-see stance, despite Trump's loud calls for a rate cut. The Fed held rates at this month's meeting and is widely expected to stay on the sidelines again in June. The Fed is waiting for more clarity on the tariff front, but any surprises from inflation or employment data could have a signifcant impact on rate policy.
EURUSD_SPT trade ideas
Euro StrengthECB policy outlook: Some ECB members are hinting that the bank may be nearing the end of its rate-cutting cycle, which could make the Euro more attractive.
Positive Eurozone data: Better-than-expected industrial output and quarterly employment changes in the Eurozone can provide support for the Euro.
EURUSD| Locked in on the SetupPatience is power. EU already did the heavy lifting.
Structure's set, liquidity handled, handled, and now I'm just waiting on price to that order block in discount on the LTF.
Once that entry lines up?
Boom- TP, I'm coming for you.
Simple logic. real precision.
I don't chase price - I let it walk right into my trap.
Bless Trading!
Euro H4 | Overlap resistance at 38.2% Fibonacci retracementThe Euro (EUR/USD) is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 1.1263 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 1.1395 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and a multi-swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 1.1081 which is an overlap support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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EUR/USD resistance calls for attentionFollowing the EUR/USD (euro versus the US dollar) trading within striking distance of a head and shoulders top pattern’s profit objective at US$1.1049, bulls went on the offensive. Consequently, price has pencilled in an AB=CD bearish formation at US$1.1332, according to the 100% projection ratio and a 1.618% Fibonacci extension ratio of US$1.1353 (B-C reciprocal). However, in terms of a resistance zone, I would be inclined to include the 1.272% Fibonacci projection ratio at US$1.1386, which shares chart space with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratio from US$1.1382.
Harmonic traders tend to target the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratios derived from the A-D legs, which, assuming a temporary peak in price at current levels, reside at US$1.1242 and US$1.1175, respectively.
DeGRAM | EURUSD rebound in the channel📊 Technical Analysis
● Strong rebound from 1.1070/channel base produced a V‑shape and broke a minor falling wedge; price is now carving higher lows above 1.1200 support.
● Room remains to the upper wedge rail / supply 1.1380, which aligns with the channel’s mid‑line; invalidation if 1.1200 fails.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● US April CPI printed 0.3 % m/m (vs 0.4 % cons) while retail‑sales missed, knocking 2‑yr yields beneath 4.70 % and weakening the USD.
● ECB hawks (Vujčić, Nagel) said cuts after June hinge on data, tempering dovish bets and underpinning euro rates. FXStreet flags fresh demand above 1.12.
✨ Summary
Channel‑floor bounce + softer US data versus guarded ECB tone favour a grind to 1.1300 → 1.1380; long bias void under 1.1200.
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EUR/USD – Fair Value Gap Filled, Market Eyes Higher HighsThe EUR/USD chart on the 4-hour timeframe is showing a well-formed Elliott Wave pattern. We've seen a clear 5-wave move to the upside, followed by a corrective ABC pattern. This correction seems to have completed, with wave C ending right at a strong support area.
It's the lower trendline of the rising channel formed during the 5-wave impulse.
It's also where a Fair Value Gap (FVG) has just been filled — an area where price previously moved too quickly and is now finding balance.
T1: 1.12355
T2: 1.13072
SL: 1.10468
EURUSD Remains BearishEUR/USD shows signs of weakness beneath the surface.
Price Structure
EUR/USD is currently forming lower highs and lower lows — indicating a mild bearish trend. The recent bounce failed to produce a breakout above key resistance and appears to be fading near 1.1370. This may hint at a distribution phase rather than accumulation.
Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) Line
The A/D line has been flattening and turning down since late April.
This suggests that despite minor price rallies, no significant buying pressure is occurring — rather, it may indicate smart money distribution.
On-Balance Volume (OBV)
OBV surged in early April but has since formed a clear downtrend.
As price attempted to climb higher in May, OBV failed to confirm — showing a classic bearish divergence.
Lack of volume confirmation implies fading buying interest.
This leads us to conclude that the EURUSD will initially remain bearish. An ideal target for a short position is the open Sunday gap, which we have chosen here as a TP.
EUR/USD Eyes 1.156 – Bullish Momentum Builds UpEUR/USD continues to push higher in the first half of the week, approaching the key 1.1300 level following a sharp sell-off in the U.S. dollar. Growing trade tensions and renewed concerns about the U.S. economy have added further pressure on the greenback.
The 1.118 level, supported by the EMA 34 and EMA 89, is acting as a launchpad for this upward move. With bullish momentum in place, the next potential target lies at the 1.156 resistance zone.
📈 Wishing you a profitable and confident trading day ahead!
Short Position on EURUSD 4H – 16th May 2025 AnalysisTrading Idea: Short Position on EURUSD 4H– 16th May 2025 Analysis
This chart illustrates a short position on EURUSD, in 4hour Time Frame near Resistance 1 with clear Stop loss above this zone. Because this is the potential place for reversal as well.
Overall, the market structure is bearish. However, it has reached the Fibonacci Retracement Level of 0.71, from the recent major breakout Swing and it too support. This is the time to check whether Resistance 1 will be taken out and market will turn bullish or if it fails at resistance 1 and continues the downtrend towards the target and then to key support area.
Analysis:
• Market Structure: The overall market structure is Bearish. However, previously, there was a good breakout from 8th April 2025.
• Fibonacci Level: Market Retraced to 0.71 of Fibonacci retracement level from 8th April Swing to recent Swing High.
• Trend Change: Might occur, if it can break above Resistance 1and sustains, then we can aim at breaking the other resistances and reaching the Target Area, i.e. recent Swing High.
Trade plan:
• Entry: Near 1.2553
• Stop Loss: 1.2935
• Take Profit: Around 1.1098
• Risk-Reward: 1:4
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
THOUGHTS ON EUR/USDEUR/USD 15M - Since price has broken structure to the upside on the higher timeframes, we have seen price now trade us back down to set a higher low. Whilst price is doing this it looks to be accumulating.
Above you can see price ranging, whilst price is ranging we are seeing price develop higher highs, this tells me strength is building in Demand, giving us more confluence to suggest an accumulation.
I have gone ahead and marked out the last protected high within the bearishness that price trade into the most recent area of Demand, once we see price break that high I will be looking for entries on this market.
We will want to see price trade us lower, down and into a valid area of interest, this will be found from the impulse that broke the structure fractally. Once we have an area, we wait potentially and we enter based on a penetration and rejection.
Symmetrical Triangle Breakout: EUR/USD Eyes Higher Levels..!📊 EUR/USD Technical Analysis – Breakout Watch..! 💥
🕰 Timeframe: 4H | 📅 Date: May 20, 2025
By: @Kartik\_Elkunchwar
The EUR/USD pair is showing an **interesting structure** with strong breakout potential. Here's the breakdown:
🔍 Chart Pattern Observed: Symmetrical Triangle
After a strong uptrend since late March, price consolidated into a symmetrical triangle, marked by lower highs and higher lows.
This formation typically indicates indecision in the market, but it often precedes a strong breakout.
📈 Uptrend Intact
The dotted line labeled UP-TREND shows that the bullish momentum is still present, with price respecting the rising support line over time.
This trendline has acted as a reliable dynamic support, reinforcing the bullish bias.
🔔 Recent Price Action
Price recently broke out above the upper trendline of the triangle, closing around **1.1275**.
This breakout is accompanied by a surge in momentum and could signal the resumption of the bullish trend.
📌 Key Levels to Watch
Resistance Zone: 1.1300 – If price breaks and sustains above this level, we could see a rally toward **1.1400–1.1450**.
Support Zone: 1.1200 and 1.1100 – In case of a false breakout or retest, these levels may act as buying opportunities.
🧠 Conclusion
The EUR/USD pair is giving a **potential long setup** after consolidating for weeks. A confirmed breakout above the triangle indicates **buyers may be gaining control**. Watch for a **retest and bounce** for higher conviction entries.
📉 What’s your take on EUR/USD? Bullish or Bearish..?
Drop your analysis in the comments! 💬
EURUSD: The Market Is Looking Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 1.12314 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 1.12646.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️